United Kingdom general election, 2015
|2001 election • MPs|
|2005 election • MPs|
|2010 election • MPs|
The next United Kingdom general election is expected to be held on 7 May 2015, to elect the 56th Parliament of the United Kingdom.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (as amended by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013) mandates dissolution of the present 55th Parliament on 30 March 2015 and provides that the election will be held on 7 May, unless the House of Commons votes for an earlier date. There are local elections scheduled to take place on the same day across most of England, with the exception of Greater London. There are no additional elections scheduled to take place in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, apart from any local by-elections.
In UK general elections, voting takes place in all parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of the Parliament.
- 1 How the election is held
- 2 Date of the election
- 3 Political parties
- 4 2010 results
- 5 Likely or potential target seats
- 6 MPs standing down
- 7 Television debates
- 8 Opinion polling
- 9 Seat predictions
- 10 Pacts and possible coalitions
- 11 See also
- 12 Footnotes
- 13 References
- 14 External links
How the election is held
Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the 'first past the post' system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a coalition government or a minority government.
Although the Conservative Party planned the number of parliamentary seats to be reduced from 650 to 600, through the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, the review of constituencies and reduction in seats was delayed by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 amending the 2011 Act. The next boundary review is now set to take place in 2018; thus the 2015 general election will be contested using the same constituencies and boundaries as in 2010.
In addition, the 2011 Act mandated a referendum in 2011 on changing from the current 'first past the post' system system to an Alternative Vote system for elections to the Commons. The Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition agreement committed the coalition government to such a referendum. The referendum was held in May 2011 and resulted in the retention of the existing voting system. Before the previous general election, the Liberal Democrats had pledged to change the voting system, and the Labour Party pledged to have a referendum about any such change. The Conservatives, however, promised to keep the first past the post system, but to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%. Liberal Democrat plans were to reduce the number of MPs to 500 elected using a proportional system.
If Scotland had voted to leave the United Kingdom in the independence referendum on 18 September 2014, it was expected that a 2015 general election would still have included Scotland, but the status and role of MPs elected in Scotland would have required clarification.
Ministers have increased the amount of money that parties and candidates are allowed to spend on the election by 23%, a move decided against Electoral Commission advice. The election sees the first cap on spending by parties in individual constituencies during the 100 days before Parliament's dissolution on 30 March: £30,700, plus a per-voter allowance of 9p in county constituencies and 6p in borough seats. An additional voter allowance of more than £8,700 is available after the dissolution of Parliament. UK political parties spent £31.1m in the 2010 general election, of which Conservatives spent 53%, the Labour Party spent 25% and the Liberal Democrats 15%.
This will be the first UK general election using individual rather than household voter registration. The change in registration system has been accompanied by a drop of almost 1 million in the number of registered voters.
Date of the election
An election is called following the dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The power to dissolve Parliament has been a Royal Prerogative, exercised by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister. The Sovereign has not refused a request for dissolution since the beginning of the 20th century; the guidelines under which this might theoretically occur are known as the Lascelles Principles after the King's private secretary who set them out. As a result, incumbent Prime Ministers have often chosen to call a general election at a time when they believed they enjoyed a temporary tactical advantage.
Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1715, as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, an election had to be announced on or before the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the previous parliament, barring exceptional circumstances. Since the enactment of the 1715 Act, Parliament has never been allowed to expire. The previous general election, held on 6 May 2010, elected MPs to the 55th Parliament which began on 18 May 2010; thus this Parliament would expire on 17 May 2015. Since the last day that a proclamation summoning a new Parliament could be issued is this day of expiration, the election timetable dictated that the latest possible date for the election was 11 June 2015.
Fixed-term Parliaments Act
Prior to the 2010 general election, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats pledged to introduce fixed-term elections. As part of the Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, the Cameron ministry agreed to support legislation for fixed-term Parliaments, with the date of the next general election being 7 May 2015. This would have coincided with general elections for the Scottish Parliament, National Assembly for Wales and Northern Ireland Assembly, which were scheduled to be held on a four-year, fixed-term basis. In response to cross-party criticism of this, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act moved the dates of the next elections to the Scottish Parliament and National Assembly for Wales to 2016 (in sections 4 and 5 of the Act, respectively), whilst the next Northern Ireland Assembly election was moved to 2016 by the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 (which specifies that elections will be held in the fifth (rather than fourth, as previously) calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected).
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 removed the Royal Prerogative to dissolve Parliament. As a result, a Prime Minister no longer has the power to advise the monarch to call an early election. The Bill originally only permitted early dissolution if Parliament voted for one by a supermajority of 55%. A government could still lose a vote of no confidence by a majority of just over 50%, requiring it to resign. Later, the Government amended the Bill to increase the required supermajority to two-thirds, as applies to the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. When doing so, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg clarified that Parliament would be dissolved if no new government could be formed within 14 days of a no-confidence vote. The Bill was enacted in this amended form.
The Prime Minister has the power, by order made by Statutory Instrument under section 1(5) of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, to provide that the polling day is to be held up to two months later than 7 May 2015. Such a Statutory Instrument must be approved by each House of Parliament.
Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013
Section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 amended the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 by extending the period between the dissolution of Parliament and the following general election polling day from 17 to 25 working days. This has had the effect of moving forward the date of the dissolution of the present Parliament to 30 March 2015.
Occasionally, a constituency is forced to delay its polling day. In each of the two preceding general elections, one constituency delayed its poll due to the death of a candidate.
In the run up to the Scottish independence referendum, 2014, SNP MP Angus Robertson suggested that politicians in the remainder of the UK would have had to consider delaying the 2015 election by a year if Scotland had voted for independence on 18 September 2014. Robertson argued that holding an election during the independence negotiations would be a diversion. Ultimately this ceased to be an issue, as Scotland voted against independence.
As of 17 September 2010[update], the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties includes 392 political parties registered in Great Britain, and 43 in Northern Ireland. Candidates who do not belong to a registered party can use an "independent" label, or no label at all. Great Britain and Northern Ireland have distinct political cultures, with few parties standing candidates in both areas (although the Conservatives, UKIP and British National Party (BNP) do). This section is accordingly split into two.
The two biggest parties in Great Britain are:
- Conservative Party: led by David Cameron, the current prime minister. The Conservatives are the larger party in the coalition government, having won the most seats at the 2010 election.
- Labour Party: led by Ed Miliband. Labour had been in power from 1997-2010.
The Conservatives and Labour have been the two biggest parties since 1922, and have supplied all UK prime ministers since that date. It is expected that either Cameron or Miliband will be the prime minister after the election: either with an overall majority, or heading a minority government or a coalition.
The Liberal Democrats have been the third party in the UK for many years; but as described by various commentators, other parties have risen relative to the Liberal Democrats since the 2010 election. The Economist described a "familiar two-and-a-half-party system" (Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats in third place) that "appears to be breaking down" with the rise of UKIP, the Greens and the SNP. Newsnight and The Economist have described the country as moving into a six-party system, with the Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and Greens all being significant. Ofcom, in their role regulating election coverage in the UK, have ruled that for the general election and local elections in May 2015, the major parties in Great Britain are the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, with UKIP a major party in England and Wales, the SNP a major party in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru in Wales, and that the Greens are not a major party. The BBC's draft guidelines for coverage broadly concur with Ofcom. Seven parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, PC and Green) are the proposed participants in the election leadership debates.
- Liberal Democrats: the Liberal Democrats are the junior member of the 2010-15 Coalition Government. The LibDems and predecessor parties have been the third party of British politics since 1922. However, they have generally been fourth in polling since 2013 and sometimes fifth since late 2014. They have likewise been fourth in national projected vote share in local elections in 2013 and 2014 (although third in terms of councillors elected) and were fifth in votes (sixth in seats) in the 2014 European elections.
- Scottish National Party: the SNP only contest seats in Scotland. The party got the second most votes in Scotland in 2010, but won the third most seats, which was also the fourth most seats in Great Britain and the fifth in the Commons overall. They won the 2011 election to the Scottish Parliament and have had a surge of support since the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014. Some commentators predict that they could be the third largest party overall after the 2015 election, in terms of seats won, overtaking the LibDems.
- UK Independence Party: UKIP won the fourth most votes at the 2010 election, but failed to win any seats. They have since won two seats at by-elections following defections in 2014. They have normally been third in opinion polling since 2013 and were third in national projected vote share in local elections in 2013 and 2014 (although fourth in councillors won). They were first in the 2014 European elections, the first time a political party other than Labour or the Conservatives had won the popular vote in a national election since the 1906 general election.
- Greens: there are three distinct Green parties in the UK, who cooperate with each other: the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Green Party and the Green Party in Northern Ireland. Opinion polling in Great Britain generally makes no distinction between the Green Party of England and Wales and the Scottish Greens. The Green Party of England and Wales won their first MP at the 2010 General Election and were seventh overall in votes (sixth in England & Wales), while the Scottish Greens were sixth in Scotland in 2010 and fifth in the Scottish Parliamentary elections of 2011. The Greens have been rising in the polls since late 2014, challenging the LibDems for fourth. They were fourth in the 2014 European elections (both in terms of votes and seats won, having gained a seat).
- Plaid Cymru: Plaid Cymru organise in Wales and coordinate with the SNP; they have three MPs and were fourth in Wales by vote share in 2010 and eighth in Great Britain, but third in the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections.
Smaller parties in Great Britain include Respect (have one MP following a 2012 by-election and were tenth by vote share in Great Britain in 2010); the British National Party (BNP; fifth by vote share in the UK in 2010, but have declined since in polling; have never had an MP elected, though at one time had two MEPs, and now have two local councillors); and the English Democrats (ninth in Great Britain by vote share in 2010, at one time had a directly elected mayor, and now have a single elected councillor).
- Democratic Unionist Party: the DUP are the fourth biggest party in the Commons with eight MPs, and the biggest from Northern Ireland; the party also won the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election, but were second in the 2014 European election.
- Sinn Féin: Sinn Féin won most votes in Northern Ireland in 2010, but came second in seats, winning five constituencies. They were second in the 2011 Assembly elections, but first in the 2014 European elections. Sinn Féin operate a policy of abstentionism with respect to the Commons and have never so far taken their seats there. The party also organises in the Republic of Ireland, where it does take seats in parliament.
- Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): the SDLP were third in the 2010 and 2011 elections, and fourth in the 2014 European elections. They have three MPs. The SDLP has a relationship with the Labour Party in Great Britain, with SDLP MPs generally following the Labour whip. They are expected to support Labour in June in the event of a hung Parliament.
- Ulster Unionist Party: the UUP has not had an MP at the Commons since Lady Hermon left the party to successfully run as an independent in 2010. However, they have an MEP, having been third in the 2014 European elections. They were fourth in the 2011 Assembly elections and came fourth by vote share at the 2010 general election.
- Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: the Alliance Party had an MP elected for the first time in 2010. They were fifth in the 2010 election by vote share, fifth overall in 2011 and sixth in 2014. Alliance has a relationship with the Liberal Democrats in Great Britain: the two Alliance members of the House of Lords sit as Liberal Democrats, but Alliance's one MP sits on the opposition benches in the Commons and not with the Liberal Democrats on the government benches.
Smaller parties in Northern Ireland include Traditional Unionist Voice (represented in the Assembly, sixth in the 2010 and 2011 elections, fifth in 2014), the Green Party in Northern Ireland (represented in the Assembly, seventh in the 2010 and 2011 elections, eighth in 2014, the party is a region of the Green Party in Ireland), UKIP (the same party organises in Great Britain and Northern Ireland, represented in the Assembly following a defection, the party did not stand in Northern Ireland in 2010, came ninth in the 2011 Assembly elections, but seventh in the 2014 European elections; they are standing in 10 out of 18 Northern Irish constituencies), NI21 (formed 2013, they came ninth in the 2014 European election) and the Northern Ireland Conservatives (the same party organises in Great Britain and Northern Ireland, but were in an electoral alliance with the UUP in 2010 (since dissolved); they came tenth and last in the 2014 European election and lost their only local councillor in 2014 local elections).
The table below shows the figures for seats won by each party at the 2010 election and the seat changes that have taken place before the next election.
|After 2010 General Election||Current|
| Total number of seats
| Actual government majority
- See here for a full list of changes during the current (55th) Parliament.
- The actual government majority is calculated as Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs less all other parties. This calculation excludes the Speaker, Deputy Speakers (two Labour and one Conservative) and Sinn Féin.
Likely or potential target seats
In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election. UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014, while others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest. A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015. The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.
Listed below are some of the top target seats for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.
|SNP targets||Swing required||Plaid Cymru targets||Swing required|
|1||Ochil & Perthshire South (LAB)||5.14%||Ynys Môn (LAB)||3.55%|
|Green Party targets||Swing required||Respect targets||Swing required|
|1||Norwich South (LD)||7.20%||Birmingham Hall Green (LAB)||3.9%|
|Sinn Féin targets||Swing required||SDLP targets||Swing required||DUP targets||Swing required||Alliance targets||Swing required|
|1||Belfast North (DUP)||3.01%||Newry and Armagh (SF)||9.3%||Belfast East (A)||2.22%||Belfast South (SDLP)||15.00%|
MPs standing down
- James Arbuthnot (North East Hampshire), announced 6 June 2011
- Sir Tony Baldry (Banbury), announced 1 September 2014
- Gregory Barker (Bexhill and Battle), announced 14 July 2014
- Brian Binley (Northampton South), announced 22 July 2013
- Aidan Burley (Cannock Chase), announced 5 February 2014
- Dan Byles (North Warwickshire), announced 20 July 2014
- James Clappison (Hertsmere), announced 3 July 2014
- Stephen Dorrell (Charnwood), announced 25 November 2014 
- Jonathan Evans (Cardiff North), announced 17 January 2013
- Lorraine Fullbrook (South Ribble), announced 14 September 2013
- William Hague (Richmond (Yorks)), announced 14 July 2014
- Charles Hendry (Wealden), announced 1 March 2013
- Mark Hoban (Fareham), announced 23 January 2015
- Chris Kelly (Dudley South), announced 31 August 2014
- Andrew Lansley (South Cambridgeshire), announced 15 July 2014
- Jessica Lee (Erewash), announced 20 January 2014
- Sir Peter Luff (Mid Worcestershire), announced 5 September 2012
- Ann McIntosh (Thirsk and Malton), announced 31 January 2014  (deselected)
- Francis Maude (Horsham), announced 1 February 2015
- Brooks Newmark (Braintree), announced 11 October 2014
- Stephen O'Brien (Eddisbury), announced 9 March 2015
- Sir Richard Ottaway (Croydon South), announced 28 May 2012
- Sir Jim Paice (South East Cambridgeshire), announced 8 March 2013 
- Sir John Randall (Uxbridge and South Ruislip), announced 10 July 2014 
- Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Kensington), announced 24 February 2015
- Andrew Robathan (South Leicestershire), announced 22 September 2014
- Sir Hugh Robertson (Faversham and Mid Kent), announced 14 January 2015
- David Ruffley (Bury St Edmunds), announced 28 July 2014
- Laura Sandys (South Thanet), announced 25 November 2013
- Sir Richard Shepherd (Aldridge-Brownhills), announced 24 October 2014
- Mark Simmonds (Boston and Skegness), announced 11 August 2014
- Sir John Stanley (Tonbridge and Malling), announced 23 March 2012
- Sir Peter Tapsell (Louth and Horncastle), announced 21 March 2014
- Robert Walter (North Dorset), announced 5 December 2014
- Mike Weatherley (Hove), announced 3 July 2014
- David Willetts (Havant), announced 14 July 2014
- Tim Yeo (South Suffolk), announced 3 February 2014 (deselected)
- Sir George Young (North West Hampshire), announced 29 November 2013
- Bob Ainsworth (Coventry North East), announced 7 December 2012.
- Sir Hugh Bayley (York Central), announced 5 December 2014.
- Joe Benton (Bootle), announced 12 June 2014.
- Hazel Blears (Salford and Eccles), announced 20 February 2014.
- David Blunkett (Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough), announced 21 June 2014
- Gordon Brown (Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath) - announced 1 December 2014
- Martin Caton (Gower), announced 11 March 2012.
- Sir Tony Cunningham (Workington), announced 28 June 2014
- Alistair Darling (Edinburgh South West), announced 2 November 2014
- John Denham (Southampton Itchen), announced 7 October 2011
- Frank Dobson (Holborn and St Pancras), announced 18 July 2014
- Frank Doran (Aberdeen North), announced 19 October 2013
- Hywel Francis (Aberavon), announced 22 November 2013
- Peter Hain (Neath), announced 6 June 2014
- David Hamilton (Midlothian), announced 24 January 2015
- Dai Havard (Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney), announced 24 September 2014
- David Heyes (Ashton-under-Lyne), announced 1 March 2014
- Glenda Jackson (Hampstead and Kilburn), announced 23 June 2011
- Siân James (Swansea East), announced 25 February 2014
- Dame Tessa Jowell (Dulwich and West Norwood), announced 21 November 2013
- Andy Love (Edmonton), announced 12 January 2015
- Dame Anne McGuire (Stirling), announced 14 January 2014
- Andrew Miller (Ellesmere Port and Neston), announced 10 December 2013
- Austin Mitchell (Great Grimsby), announced 16 April 2014
- George Mudie (Leeds East), announced 4 October 2013
- Meg Munn (Sheffield Heeley), announced 25 January 2014
- Paul Murphy (Torfaen), announced 30 January 2015
- Dame Dawn Primarolo (Bristol South), announced 10 November 2011
- Nick Raynsford (Greenwich and Woolwich), announced 22 March 2013
- Linda Riordan (Halifax), announced 12 February 2015
- Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West), announced 26 March 2015
- Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes), announced 6 November 2013
- Dame Joan Ruddock (Lewisham Deptford), announced 12 January 2013
- Jack Straw (Blackburn), announced 25 October 2013 
- Gerry Sutcliffe (Bradford South), announced 26 May 2013
- Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North), announced 15 November 2013 
- Dave Watts (St Helens North), announced 3 January 2015
- Mike Wood (Batley and Spen), announced 28 February 2014
- Shaun Woodward (St Helens South and Whiston), announced 7 November 2013
- Sir Alan Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed), announced 7 August 2013
- Jeremy Browne (Taunton Deane), announced 15 October 2014
- Annette Brooke (Mid Dorset and North Poole), announced 5 March 2013
- Sir Malcolm Bruce (Gordon), announced 9 October 2013
- Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife), announced 9 October 2013
- Don Foster (Bath), announced 8 January 2014 
- David Heath (Somerton and Frome), announced 11 October 2013
- Sir Andrew Stunell (Hazel Grove), announced on 29 September 2013
- Ian Swales (Redcar), announced 11 July 2014
- Sarah Teather (Brent Central), announced 7 September 2013
The first series of televised leaders debates in the United Kingdom were held in the previous election. It has been suggested that the debates could take place in 2015 before the election campaign begins over the longer period of January, February and March. Conservative Party leader David Cameron has suggested that the televised debates should take place before the campaign itself, as he felt that the 2010 debates overshadowed the rest of the campaign; he was, however, still positive towards them taking place. There have been disputes over whether or not they may take place: the SNP, UKIP and the Green Party voiced objections against their exclusion from initial plans despite holding seats at Westminster. The most recent proposals by the broadcasters include Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru, but the DUP are now seeking a judicial review over their exclusion.
The chart shows the positions of the political parties from 13 May 2010 to the date of the last published opinion poll. Each line corresponds to a party: blue for the Conservatives, red for Labour, yellow for the Liberal Democrats, purple for UKIP, and green for the Greens. Although not shown, other parties such as the Scottish National Party have on occasion polled higher than one or more of the parties shown in the chart. Each dot represents a party's results in opinion polls; the lines are then created by a 15-day moving average.
Throughout the present parliament, first and second place have without exception alternated between the Conservatives and Labour. The Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party have tended to hold either third or fourth place in each individual poll. The combined Green parties consistently polled at least fifth and have on occasions polled fourth - level with or ahead of UKIP, or more recently the Liberal Democrats.
Early in the parliament, there was a collapse in Liberal Democrat support, which primarily went to the Labour party. In 2012 there was an increase in UKIP support, largely from the Conservatives, meaning that Labour had a substantial polling lead.
In 2013 the Labour lead over the Conservatives declined from around 10% to around 6%, and it then fell again to just under two points in 2014. In 2014 there was a noticeable increase in Green support from around 2% to their highest levels of support since the late 1980s. UKIP support rose overall in 2014, particularly because of defections and by-elections.
Note that the UK's electoral system and its use of first-past-the-post means that there is no direct relationship between national vote share and seats won. Thus parties like UKIP and the Greens are expected to underperform in seats won compared to the vote shares predicted by polling, while regional parties, like those in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, are expected to do much better in seat terms than their overall vote share.
The first-past-the-post system used in UK general elections means that the number of seats is not closely related to vote share. Thus, a number of approaches are used to convert polling data and other information into seat predictions. The table below lists a number of regularly updated predictions. ElectionForecast is being used by Newsnight. May2015.com is a project run by the New Statesman magazine.
Such approaches may just use Great Britain polling, may look at polling in the different constituent nations or may additionally incorporate constituency level polling. Approaches may or may not use uniform national swing (UNS). Approaches may just use current polling, i.e. a 'nowcast' (e.g. Electoral Calculus, May2015.com and The Guardian), or add in a predictive element about how polling shifts based on historical data (e.g. ElectionForecast and Elections Etc). An alternative approach is to use the wisdom of the crowds and base a prediction on betting activity: the Sporting Index column below covers bets on the number of seats each party will in, while FirstPastThePost.net aggregates the betting predictions in each individual constituency. Some predictions cover Northern Ireland, with its distinct political culture, while others do not.
Parties are sorted by current number of seats in the House of Commons. The last column gives the current midpoint between asking and selling price on Sporting Index, a betting site.
as of 26 Mar 2015
as of 26 Mar 2015
as of 20 Mar 2015
as of 26 Mar 2015
as of 25 Mar 2015
as of 26 Mar 2015
|First Past the Post
as of 21 Mar 2015
|DUP||8||Included under Other||GB forecast only||Included under Other||8||No market||8.7|
|SDLP||3||Included under Other||GB forecast only||Included under Other||3||No market||2.7|
|Other||8||18 (including 18 NI seats)||GB forecast only, but
above may not sum to
632 due to rounding
of sums of probabilities
|21 (including 18 NI seats)||8||No market||Respect 0.5
Sinn Fein 4.7
Sylvia Hermon 1
|Overall result (probability)||Hung Parliament (90%)||Hung Parliament (54%)||Hung Parliament (87%)||Hung Parliament||Hung Parliament||Hung Parliament||Hung Parliament|
Other predictions have been published.
Pacts and possible coalitions
With the United Kingdom electoral system, coalitions have been rare as one party has usually won an overall majority in the Commons. However, with the current Government being a coalition and with opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, there has been much discussion about possible post-election coalitions or other arrangements. The run-up to the general election has been marked by a rise in multi-party politics, with increased support for UKIP, the SNP and the Greens. That, coupled with the two main parties, Conservative and Labour having similar levels of support, has led to discussion of another hung parliament and what government would then be formed. Because of the first past the post electoral system, the number of seats won by parties can be very different from their vote share, complicating predictions.
Certain UK political parties that only stand in part of the country have reciprocal relationships with parties standing in other parts of the country. These include:
- Labour (in Great Britain) & SDLP (in Northern Ireland)
- Liberal Democrats (in Great Britain) & Alliance (in Northern Ireland)
- SNP (in Scotland) & Plaid Cymru (in Wales)
- Green Party of England & Wales (in England and Wales), Scottish Greens (in Scotland) & the Green Party in Northern Ireland (in Northern Ireland)
On 17 March 2015, after 6 months discussion, the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists agreed an election pact whereby the DUP will not stand candidates in Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where a joint unionist candidate just lost to Sinn Fein in the most marginal result in the UK in 2010) and Newry and Armagh (where the UUP and DUP were third and fourth respectively in 2010). In return, the UUP will stand aside in Belfast East (which the DUP lost to the Alliance in 2010) and Belfast North (DUP hold in 2010). Of these four seats, one (Belfast East) elected Naomi Long, the Alliance Party's sole MP, one (Belfast North) is currently held by the DUP, while the remaining two elected Sinn Fein MPs in 2010. The Unionist parties were unable to agree on a pact for the SDLP-held Belfast South constituency. The election pact between the two largest unionist parties may be advantageous to both parties: the UUP currently do not possess a seat at Westminster, having lost their last constituency in 2010, whilst a ninth seat for the DUP would further strengthen their position as the dominant political force in Northern Ireland.
The SDLP rejected a similar pact suggested by Sinn Féin, citing that they believe election pacts to be 'clinging to the past', and rejected the proposal again when it was repeated after the announcement of the UUP/DUP agreement.
The Conservatives and Labour both say that they are aiming to achieve an overall majority of seats, rendering a coalition unnecessary. The Conservatives have largely refused to discuss possible coalition scenarios. Labour and the Conservatives are also reported to be preparing for the possibility of a second election in the year. If neither of them achieves an overall majority, the Liberal Democrats have said that they will talk first to whichever party wins the most seats. Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, also said that he would "find it very difficult to imagine the circumstances" in which the Lib Dems and UKIP would sit together in Cabinet.
Labour have ruled out a coalition with the SNP, but not a less formal arrangement. The Conservatives previously ruled out a coalition with the SNP, while the Liberal Democrat Business Secretary, Vince Cable, also said that the Liberal Democrats will not enter a coalition with the SNP.
The Green Party of England & Wales, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party have all ruled out working with the Conservatives, and have agreed to work together "wherever possible" to counter austerity. Each would also make it a condition of any agreement with Labour that Trident nuclear weapons are not replaced. The SNP have actively campaigned on a position that they could hold the balance of power and would use this influence to ensure greater devolution for Scotland, as was promised in the referendum campaign. The SNP have said they "are prepared to work with Labour and the Liberal Democrats." The SNP have said a formal coalition with Labour is "highly unlikely" (in the words of party leader Nicola Sturgeon), but have left open the possibility of more informal support. Plaid Cymru also prefer a confidence and supply arrangement with Labour. The Green Party of England and Wales have also ruled out joining any coalition, even though a Labour/SNP/Green coalition was the outcome in the event of a hung parliament that attracted most support among the general public in an ICM opinion poll.
UKIP say they could support any government that offered a referendum on EU membership through a confidence and supply arrangement, but have ruled out joining a formal coalition. UKIP leader, Nigel Farage subsequently said he would support a minority Conservative government through a confidence and supply arrangement in return for a referendum before Christmas 2015. He also spoke of the DUP joining UKIP in this arrangement. UKIP and DUP have said they will work together in Parliament.
The DUP have welcomed the possibility of a hung Parliament and the influence that this would bring them. The party's deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, has said that the party could work with the Conservatives or Labour, but that the party is "not interested in a full-blown coalition government". The DUP have said they want, for their support, a commitment to 2% defence spending, a referendum on EU membership, and a reversal of the spare room subsidy. They oppose the SNP being involved in government. Sinn Féin have reiterated their abstentionist stance.
With Sinn Fein abstaining from Parliament, 323 seats are needed for a majority (presuming Sinn Fein hold the ultra-marginal of Fermanagh and South Tyrone). Labour are seen as having more potential support in Parliament than the Conservatives. The SDLP and the independent MP Lady Hermon are expected to support the formation of a Labour government, while Respect, if elected, will not support a Conservative government. The SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens have all said they will not support the Conservatives. That leaves fewer parties who might support either of the biggest two parties.
There have been discussions and debates about whether the Liberal Democrats would continue in coalition with the Conservatives, or enter a new Lib–Lab pact. Some commentators suggest that the election result might mean that the Liberal Democrats could not form a majority two-party coalition with either Labour or Conservatives, and that the Liberal Democrats may prefer not to be in a coalition anyway.
The most likely right-of-centre coalition of three parties is seen as being the Conservatives, the UK Independence Party and the Democratic Unionist Party, although a Conservative minister, Rob Wilson, suggested that a second General Election would be more likely than a three-party coalition. An agreement of some description between the Conservatives and the DUP, without UKIP, would be less controversial and easier to negotiate. Likely arrangements on the left of centre would see Labour supported by the SNP, the Liberal Democrats or both. There has also been discussion of the possibility of a Conservative-Labour coalition, although this is seen as unlikely.
- Electoral Calculus, prediction of future general election results using mathematical modelling
- European Parliament election, 2014 (United Kingdom)
- As compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result
- "Peers end deadlock over fixed term parliaments". BBC News Online. 14 September 2011.
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