Nicola Scafetta

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Nicola Scafetta
Born Italy
Fields Astronomy, Climatology, Physics
Institutions Duke University
Alma mater University of Pisa,
University of North Texas
Thesis An entropic approach to the analysis of time series (2001)
Doctoral advisor Paolo Grigolini
Website
www.duke.edu/~ns2002/

Nicola Scafetta is a research scientist at the ACRIM Lab group and an adjunct assistant professor in the physics department at Duke University.[1][2] His research interests are in theoretical and applied statistics and nonlinear models of complex processes.[1] He has published peer-reviewed papers in journals covering a wide variety of disciplines, including astronomy, biology, climatology, economics, medicine, physics and sociology.[1]

Early life and education[edit]

Scafetta was born in Italy. He received a Laurea in physics from the University of Pisa in 1997 and a Ph.D. in physics from the University of North Texas in 2001.[1] His doctoral thesis was titled An entropic approach to the analysis of time series.[3]

Career[edit]

Scafetta was a research associate in the electrical and computer engineering department at Duke University from 2002 to 2003 and then a research scientist in the physics department from 2003 to 2009.[1] He has been a visiting lecturer at Elon University and the University of North Carolina.[1] Scafetta is currently a research scientist at the ACRIM Lab group and an assistant adjunct professor in the physics department at Duke University since 2010.[1]

He is a member of the American Physical Society, American Geophysical Union and the American Association of Physical Teachers.[1]

ACRIM[edit]

According to Scafetta, total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements gathered by satellites since 1978 are flawed due to the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster preventing the launching of the ACRIM 2 satellite to replace ACRIM 1 and resulting in a two-year data gap in the ACRIM time series. Scientists bridged this gap with data from other satellites and concluded that there was no increased heating from the Sun to contribute to the global surface warming observed between 1980 and 2002. Columbia's Richard Willson, principal investigator of the ACRIM experiments and his colleagues, including Scafetta, challenged these findings and argued for a significant upward trend in average solar luminosity during the same period. Scafetta and West applied a new analysis to the Columbia findings to conclude that, "the sun may have minimally contributed about 10 to 30 percent of the 1980-2002 global surface warming."[4][5]

Scientific contributions[edit]

Scafetta developed Diffusion Entropy Analysis, a method of statistical analysis which distinguishes between Levy Walk noises and Fractional Brownian motion in complex systems.[6] Scafetta used this method in a 2002 analysis of teen pregnancy.[7][8]

Views on climate change[edit]

Scafetta has argued, "At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system."[9] In 2009, Scafetta faced criticism for failing to disclose the computer code required to reproduce his research.[10] Scafetta responded by saying that the code in question had been submitted to a scientific journal and that if "the journal takes its time to publish it, it is not our fault."[10]

In a article published for The Open Atmospheric Science Journal along with Craig Loehle of the National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Scafetta forecast that the world climate "may remain approximately steady until 2030-2040, and may at most warm 0.5-1.0°C by 2100 at the estimated 0.66°C/century anthropogenic warming rate".[11]

Selected publications[edit]

  • Nicola Scafetta, Patti Hamilton and Paolo Grigolini, "The thermodynamics of social process: the teen birth phenomenon," Fractals, 9, 193-208 (2001). [1]
  • Nicola Scafetta, Sergio Picozzi and Bruce J. West, "An out-of-equilibrium model of the distributions of wealth" Quantitative Finance 4, 353-364 (2004)." [2]
  • Nicola Scafetta and Bruce J. West, "Multiresolution diffusion entropy analysis of time series: an application to births to teenagers in Texas" Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 20, 119 (2004). [3]
  • Nicola Scafetta, and Paolo Grigolini, "Scaling detection in time series: diffusion entropy analysis," Phys. Rev. E 66, 036130 (2002)."[4]
  • Nicola Scafetta, Richard Moon, and Bruce J. West, "Fractal Response of Physiological Signals to Stress Conditions, Environmental Changes and Neurodegenerative Diseases," Complexity 12, 12-17 (2007). [5]
  • Nicola Scafetta, and Bruce J. West, "Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the NH surface temperature records since 1600." J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S03, doi:10.1029/2007JD008437 (2007). [6]
  • N. Scafetta, "Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change," Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 71, 1916–1923 (2009), doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.07.007. [7]
  • Nicola Scafetta and Richard Willson, "ACRIM-gap and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model", Geophysical Research Letter 36, L05701, doi:10.1029/2008GL036307 (2009). [8]
  • Craig Loehle and Nicola Scafetta, "Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data," The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2011 5, 74-86. Full text

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h "Nicola Scafetta, PhD". Duke University. Retrieved 2012-08-21. 
  2. ^ "ACRIM Staff Information: Science and Instrument Team". ACRIM. Retrieved 2012-08-21. 
  3. ^ Scafetta, Nicola (2001). "An entropic approach to the analysis of time series". University of North Texas. Retrieved 2012-08-21. 
  4. ^ Basgall, Monte (September 30, 2005). "Sun's Direct Role in Global Warming May Be Underestimated, Duke Physicists Report". Duke Today. Retrieved 2012-08-21. 
  5. ^ Dean, Ashley (October 19, 2005). "Hotter sun may affect global warming". The Chronicle. Retrieved 2012-08-21. 
  6. ^ Scafetta, Nicola and Paolo Grigolini (2002). "Scaling detection in time series: diffusion entropy analysis". Physical Review E 66 (3). arXiv:cond-mat/0202008. Bibcode:2002PhRvE..66c6130S. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.66.036130. 
  7. ^ Goforth, Sarah (August 12, 2002). "A new perspective on teen pregnancy: Mathematical approach clarifies subtle patterns, points way to action". Dallas Morning News. Retrieved 2012-08-21. 
  8. ^ Ball, Philip (June 3, 2002). "Less lovin' in summer: Texan teen conception rates linked to school term times". Nature. Retrieved 2012-08-21. 
  9. ^ Scafetta, Nicola (March 18, 2010). "Climate Change and its Causes, a Discussion about some Key Issues". Science and Public Policy Institute. Retrieved 2012-08-22. 
  10. ^ a b Le Page, Michael (December 18, 2009). "Sceptical climate researcher won't divulge key program". New Scientist. Retrieved 2012-08-22. 
  11. ^ Craig Loehle and Nicola Scafetta, "Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data," The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2011 5, 74-86. Full text

External links[edit]