Oil megaprojects

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Oil megaprojects are large oil field projects.

Contents

[edit] Summary of megaprojects

[edit] Megaprojects predicted for individual years

Overview 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

[edit] New Supply Addition per Country from Oil Megaprojects

Volumes shown are in thousand barrels per day. The summary table below is produced by a Perl script parsing each annual tables. This script is not run every day so some discrepancies may appear (last update: 19-NOV-2008).

Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total 3172 2747 3776 3845 3100 5117 4345 3660 3735 3259 2545 1820 1255 1095 162 180 50
OPEC
Total OPEC 957 1770 1175 1815 930 2465 2465 1745 2374 1440 1395 920 440
Algeria 70 80 50 200 50 190 40
Angola 90 250 325 425 430 240 500 335 395 525 140
Indonesia 40 200 20 50 70 25 125 80
Ecuador 52 30
Iran 95 85 190 150 200 570 115 95 255 210 530 240
Iraq 150 60 200 150 200
Kuwait 65 300 60 60 50 50 190
Libya 115 150 10 30 50
Nigeria 195 225 390 345 205 240 459 250 150
Qatar 70 45 130 180 80 505 280 170 135
Saudi Arabia 300 690 300 890 1150 670 365 300 330 250
UAE 90 290 20 210 75 200
Venezuela 180 70 75 200
Non-OPEC
Total Non-OPEC 2215 977 2601 2030 2170 2652 1880 1915 1361 1819 1150 900 815 1095 162 180 50
Australia 40 200 85 100 115 90 35 45 60 100
Azerbaijan 325 750 260 200
Brazil 70 250 300 340 640 375 200 460 280 200 380 300 100
Cameroon 20
Canada 255 90 45 260 100 215 125 300 185 350 210 245 162 180 50
Chad 225 60
China 62 100 165 200 20 200 80
Congo) 90 30
East Timor 25
Egypt 40
Eq. Guinea 110 60
Gabon 20 10 20
Ghana 150 20
India 40 175 25
Italy 50
Ivory Coast 65
Kazakhstan 150 250 285 160 300 380 850
Malaysia 105 120 45 100 40
Mauritania 75
Mexico 730 310 173 51 74
New Zealand 40 25
Norway 389 176 45 120 150 100 190 85 125
Oman 40 155
Papua New Guinea 40
Peru 50
Philippines 15 15
Russia 380 250 80 155 570 310 415 360 15
South Africa 30 80
Sudan 250 285
Syria 30
Thailand 40 10 12
Trinidad 60
UK 40 30 60 305 25 50 75
USA 279 282 210 95 255 349 335 180 110 120 150 200
Vietnam 70 63 160 20
Yemen 25 30 30

New gross supply additions from Megaprojects.

Percentage of new supply additions (2003-2018) per country. The "Others" category includes countries with less than 1% contribution.

Liquid additions by category coming from oil megaprojects: NGL=Natural Gas Liquids, unconventional=Bitumen, synthetic oil from tar sands, GTL, etc.. Projects with no specified category were added to the crude oil/condensate group.

[edit] Application to oil supply forecasting

Number of oil fields discovered per decades grouped by average flow rates (left) and corresponding oil volumes (right) in giga-barrels (Gb). Data taken from the annexe B of "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons[1].

A series of project tabulations and analyses by Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, have presented a more pessimistic picture of future oil supply. In a 2004 report,[2] based on an analysis of new projects over 100 thousand barrels/day (kbd), he argued that although ample supply might be available in the near-term, after 2007 "the volumes of new production for this period are well below likely requirements." By 2006,[3] although "the outlook for future supply appears somewhat brighter than even six months ago", nonetheless, if "all the factors reducing new capacity come into play, markets will remain tight and prices high. Only if new capacity flows into the system rather more rapidly than of late, will there be any chance of rebuilding spare capacity and softening prices."

The smallest fields, even in aggregate, do not contribute a large fraction of the total. For example, a relatively small number of giant and super-giant oilfields are providing almost half of the world production.[1]

[edit] Decline rates

Main article: Oil depletion

The most important variable is the average decline rate for Fields in Production (FIP) which is difficult to assess.[4][5][6]

[edit] See also

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[edit] References

  1. ^ a b Simmons, Matthew (2005). Twilight in the Desert. Wiley. pp. 448. ISBN 978-0-471-73876-3. http://www.twilightinthedesert.com. 
  2. ^ "Oil field mega projects 2004". http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/MEGAPROJECTSREPORT.pdf. 
  3. ^ "Prices holding steady, despite massive planned capacity additions". http://sydneypeakoil.com/downloads/PR_APR06_Megaprojects.pdf. 
  4. ^ Lawrence Eagles (2006). "Medium Term Oil Market Report". OECD/International Transport Forum Roundtable. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/RoundTables/RTOilNov07Eagles.pdf. 
  5. ^ John Gerdes (2007). "Modest Non-OPEC Supply Growth Underpins $60+ Oil Price". SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. http://gerdes-group.com/energy-insight/Non-OPECSupply20070206.pdf. 
  6. ^ PETER M. JACKSON (2007). "Finding the Critical Numbers: What Are the Real Decline Rates for Global Oil Production?". CERA. http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/client/report/reportpreview.aspx?CID=8958&KID=165. 
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