Opinion polling for the United States Senate elections, 2008

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This article provides a collection of scientific, state-wide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the United States of America (U.S.) Senate elections, 2008. The National Journal/Hotline rankings are based on predictions of the likelihood of seat switching party control.

Contents 1 Opinion polling 1.1 Democratic Incumbents 1.1.1 Delaware 1.1.2 Illinois 1.1.3 Iowa 1.1.4 Louisiana 1.1.5 Massachusetts 1.1.6 Michigan 1.1.7 Montana 1.1.8 New Jersey 1.1.9 Rhode Island 1.1.10 South Dakota 1.1.11 West Virginia 1.2 Republican incumbents 1.2.1 Alabama 1.2.2 Alaska 1.2.3 Colorado 1.2.4 Georgia 1.2.5 Idaho 1.2.6 Kansas 1.2.7 Kentucky 1.2.8 Maine 1.2.9 Minnesota 1.2.10 Mississippi 1.2.11 Nebraska 1.2.12 New Hampshire 1.2.13 New Mexico 1.2.14 North Carolina 1.2.15 Oklahoma 1.2.16 Oregon 1.2.17 South Carolina 1.2.18 Tennessee 1.2.19 Texas 1.2.20 Virginia 1.2.21 Wyoming 2 Other 2008 Senate Races 2.1 Notes 3 Predicted Results Based on Polling and Predictions 3.1 Maps of polling data 4 Election Day projection 5 External links

[edit] Opinion polling

[edit] Democratic Incumbents

[edit] Delaware

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Joe Biden

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Joe Biden	Republican: Christine O'Donnell	Lead Margin
Survey USA	October 27-October 28, 2008	66%	32%	34
Survey USA	September 22-September 23, 2008	64%	32%	32
Fairleigh Dickinson	September 17-September 21, 2008	69%	26%	43

[edit] Illinois

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Dick Durbin

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Dick Durbin	Republican: Steve Sauerberg	Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports	October 13, 2008	62%	31%	31
St. Louis Post Dispatch/ Research 2000	September 15-September 18, 2008	56%	35%	21
Rasmussen Reports	September 17, 2008	59%	35%	24
Rasmussen Reports	August 12, 2008	61%	33%	28
Southern Outreach	July 12, 2008	52%	35%	17
Rasmussen Reports	July 8, 2008	63%	28%	34

[edit] Iowa

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Tom Harkin

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Tom Harkin	Republican: Christopher Reed	Lead Margin
Survey USA	October 28-October 29, 2008	61%	35%	26
Rasmussen Reports	October 23, 2008	57%	41%	16
Rasmussen Reports	September 25, 2008	54%	40%	14
Survey USA	September 17-September 18, 2008	60%	37%	23
Des Moines Register/ Selzer & Co	September 8-September 10, 2008	53%	34%	19
Rasmussen Reports	August 7, 2008	60%	36%	24
Rasmussen Reports	July 10, 2008	55%	37%	18
Rasmussen Reports	June 10, 2008	53%	37%	16
Research 2000	April 21-April 23, 2008	59%	20%	39

[edit] Louisiana

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 9
Incumbent: Mary Landrieu

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mary Landrieu	Republican: John Kennedy	Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports	October 21, 2008	53%	43%	10
Rasmussen Reports	September 25, 2008	54%	41%	13
Rasmussen Reports	August 17, 2008	56%	39%	17
Rasmussen Reports	July 9, 2008	51%	45%	6
Southern Media/ Opinion Research	June 26-June 28, 2008	45.8%	40.3%	5.5
Rasmussen Reports	May 28, 2008	47%	44%	3
Mellman Group *	May 17-May 20, 2008	49%	33%	16
Southern Media/ Opinion Research	March 26-April 9, 2008	50%	38%	12
Survey USA	December 6-December 10, 2007	46%	42%	4
Zogby International	November 29, 2007	38%	45%	7

[edit] Massachusetts

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: John Kerry

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: John Kerry	Republican: Jeff Beatty	Lead Margin
Survey USA	October 28, 2008	58%	34%	24
Survey USA	October 14, 2008	59%	29%	30
Rasmussen Reports	October 13, 2008	63%	31%	32
Rasmussen Reports	September 23, 2008	65%	30%	35
Survey USA	September 22-September 23, 2008	63%	25%	38
Rasmussen Reports	August 5, 2008	59%	32%	27
Rasmussen Reports	June 30, 2008	58%	27%	31
Rasmussen Reports	May 28, 2008	63%	25%	38
Rasmussen Reports	April 22, 2008	55%	30%	25
Zogby International	July 8, 2007	58%	23%	25

[edit] Michigan

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Carl Levin

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Carl Levin	Republican: Jack Hoogendyk	Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports	October 8, 2008	61%	36%	25
Strategic Vision	September 22-September 24, 2008	57%	29%	28
EPIC-MRA	September 14-September 17, 2008	54%	26%	28
Rasmussen Reports	September 10, 2008	57%	38%	19
Public Policy Polling	September 6-September 7, 2008	51%	36%	15
Strategic Vision	September 5-September 7, 2008	58%	28%	20
EPIC-MRA	August 18-August 21, 2008	59%	27%	32
Rasmussen Reports	August 7, 2008	57%	39%	18
Public Policy Polling	July 23-July 27, 2008	54%	35%	19
Rasmussen Reports	July 10, 2008	59%	36%	23
Public Policy Polling	June 21-June 22, 2008	54%	32%	22
Rasmussen Reports	June 11, 2008	55%	35%	20
Rasmussen Reports	May 7, 2008	54%	37%	17

[edit] Montana

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Max Baucus

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Max Baucus	Republican: Robert Kelleher	Lead Margin
Public Policy Polling	November 2, 2008	71%	26%	45
Rasmussen Reports	September 7, 2008	64%	31%	33

[edit] New Jersey

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 13
Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Frank Lautenberg	Republican: Dick Zimmer	Libertarian: Jason Scheurer	Socialist Workers: Sara Lobman	Independent: Daryl Brooks	Independent: J.M. Carter	Independent: Jeff Boss	Lead Margin
Survey USA	October 30, 2008	52%	37%						15
Survey USA	October 12, 2008	51%	38%						13
Rasmussen Reports	October 7, 2008	51%	37%						14
Survey USA	September 28, 2008	51%	38%						13
Rasmussen Reports	September 16, 2008	49%	42%						7
Strategic Vision	September 14-September 16, 2008	47%	40%						7
Quinnipiac University	September 10-September 12, 2008	48%	39%						9
Marist College	September 5-September 8, 2008	51%	40%						9
Zogby International/ Garden State Equality *	August 7-August 11, 2008	50%	32%						18
Quinnipiac University	August 4-August 10, 2008	48%	41%						7
Rasmussen Reports	August 4, 2008	53%	38%						15
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates/ Club for Growth *	July 30-July 31, 2008	35%	36%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1
Monmouth University/ Gannett New Jersey	July 17-July 21, 2008	45%	37%						8
Strategic Vision	July 11-July 13, 2008	48%	32%						16
Rasmussen Reports	July 7, 2008	49%	36%						13
Fairleigh Dickinson University/ Public Mind	June 17-June 22, 2008	45%	28%						17
Quinnipiac University	June 5-June 8, 2008	47%	38%						9
Rasmussen Reports	June 4, 2008	45%	44%						1

[edit] Rhode Island

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Jack Reed

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jack Reed	Republican: Bob Tingle	Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports	July 1, 2008	72%	20%	52

[edit] South Dakota

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 20
Incumbent: Tim Johnson

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Tim Johnson	Republican: Joel Dykstra	Lead Margin
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	August 12-August 14, 2008	61%	34%	27
Rasmussen Reports	July 9, 2008	60%	38%	22
Rasmussen Reports	June 10, 2008	60%	34%	16
Rasmussen Reports	March 4, 2008	63%	28%	35

[edit] West Virginia

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Jay Rockefeller

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jay Rockefeller	Republican: Jay Wolfe	Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports	September 24, 2008	61%	33%	28

[edit] Republican incumbents

[edit] Alabama

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Jeff Sessions

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Vivian Davis Figures	Republican: Jeff Sessions	Lead Margin
Survey USA	October 28, 2008	32%	65%	33
Survey USA	October 9, 2008	33%	64%	31
Rasmussen Reports	September 22, 2008	30%	59%	29
SurveyUSA	September 16 - 17 2008	31%	66%	35
Rasmussen Reports	July 31, 2008	31%	58%	27
Rasmussen Reports	June 30, 2008	34%	58%	24
Rasmussen Reports	May 27, 2008	29%	62%	33
Rasmussen Reports	April 2, 2008	36%	57%	21
Rasmussen Reports	November 14, 2007	30%	62%	32
SurveyUSA	August 25 - 27 2007	37%	59%	22

[edit] Alaska

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 5
Incumbent: Ted Stevens

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mark Begich	Republican: Ted Stevens	Lead Maragin
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2008	52%	44%	8
Rasmussen Reports	October 6, 2008	48%	49%	1
Ivan Moore Research	September 20 - September 22, 2008	48%	46%	2
Daily Kos/Research 2000	September 15-September 17, 2008	50%	44%	6
Rasmussen Reports	September 9, 2008	48%	46%	2
Moore Information *	September 2 - September 3, 2008	46%	44%	2
Ivan Moore Research	August 30 - September 2, 2008	49%	46%	3
Ivan Moore Research	August 9 - 12 2008	56%	39%	17
Ivan Moore Research	July 30 - 31 2008	56%	35%	21
Rasmussen Reports	July 30, 2008	50%	37%	13
Ivan Moore Research	July 18 - 22 2008	51%	43%	8
Rasmussen Reports	July 17, 2008	52%	44%	8
Research 2000/Daily Kos	July 14 - 16 2008	47%	45%	2
Rasmussen Reports	June 16, 2008	44%	46%	2
Rasmussen Reports	May 14, 2008	47%	45%	2
Research 2000	May 12 - 14 2008	48%	43%	5
Hellenthal & Associates, DSCC *	May 6 - 10 2008	51%	44%	7
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2008	45%	46%	1
Research 2000	December 3 - 6 2007	47%	41%	6

[edit] Colorado

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 4
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mark Udall	Republican: Bob Schaffer	Green: Bob Kinsey	Independent: Buddy Moore	American Constitution: Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell	Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports	October 16, 2008	51%	44%				7
Rasmussen Reports	September 23, 2008	46%	44%				2
Ciruli Associates/ Economic Development Council of Colorado	September 19-September 23, 2008	45%	38%				7
Public Policy Polling	September 20-September 21, 2008	48%	40%				8
Quinnipiac University/ Wall Street Journal/ Washington Post	September 14-21 2008	48%	40%				8
Harstad Strategic Research *	September 7-September 9, 2008	45%	34%				11
Tarrance Group *	September 2-September 3, 2008	40%	39%				1
Hill Research Consultants	August 23-August 24, 2008	41%	38%				3
Suffolk University	August 21-August 24, 2008	39%	31%	2%		4%	8
Rasmussen Reports	August 13, 2008	50%	42%				8
Rocky Mountain News/ Public Opinion Strategies/ RBI Strategy & Research	August 11-13 2008	44%	38%	2%	5%		6
Public Policy Polling	August 5-7 2008	47%	41%				6
Keith Frederick	July 16-22 2008	48%	39%				9
Quinnipiac University/ Wall Street Journal/ Washington Post	July 14-22 2008	44%	44%				0
Rasmussen Reports	July 21, 2008	49%	46%				3
Public Policy Polling	July 9-10 2008	47%	38%				9
Quinnipac University Wall Street Journal/ Washington Post	June 17-24 2008	48%	38%				10
Garin-Hart-Yang/DSCC *	June 15-17 2008	46%	37%				9
Rasmussen Reports	June 17, 2008	49%	40%				9
Rasmussen Reports	May 19, 2008	47%	41%				6
Rasmussen Reports	April 16, 2008	45%	42%				3
New Leadership USA/TargetPoint *	March 31-April 7, 2008	45%	45%				0
Rasmussen Reports	March 17, 2008	46%	43%				3
McLaughlin & Associates/ Coalition for a Democratic Workplace *	March 6-March 9, 2008	44%	32%				12
Rasmussen Reports	February 11, 2008	43%	44%				1
Research for Change	December 3-December 5, 2007	39%	37%				2
Rasmussen Reports	November 28, 2007	41%	42%				1
SurveyUSA	October 27-October 30, 2007	48%	41%				7
Ciruli Associates	September 12-September 15, 2007	36%	35%				1
Hill Research Consultants *	August 26-August 28, 2007	40%	38%	7%			2

[edit] Georgia

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 14
Incumbent: Saxby Chambliss

Run-off

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jim Martin	Republican: Saxby Chambliss	Lead Margin
Public Policy Polling	November 30, 2008	46%	53%	7
Public Policy Polling	November 23, 2008	46%	52%	6
Rasmussen Reports	November 18, 2008	46%	50%	4

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jim Martin	Republican: Saxby Chambliss	Lead Margin
Public Policy Polling	November 2, 2008	46%	48%	2
Survey USA	November 2, 2008	44%	48%	4
Rasmussen Reports	October 30, 2008	43%	48%	5
Rasmussen Reports	October 22, 2008	45%	47%	2
Survey USA	October 12, 2008	43%	46%	3
Rasmussen Reports	October 7, 2008	44%	50%	6
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 1, 2008	44%	45%	1
Survey USA	September 29, 2008	44%	46%	2
Rasmussen Reports	September 16, 2008	43%	50%	7
Survey USA	September 14-September 16, 2008	36%	53%	17
Strategic Vision	September 7-September 9, 2008	36%	54%	16
Rasmussen Reports	August 14, 2008	44%	50%	6
Mellman Group/ Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee *	August 6-August 10, 2008	36%	42%	6
Rasmussen Reports	July 17, 2008	40%	51%	11
Strategic Vision	June 27-June 29, 2008	28%	57%	29
Rasmussen Reports	June 26, 2008	39%	52%	13
Rasmussen Reports	June 4, 2008	36%	52%	16
Rasmussen Reports	May 6, 2008	33%	54%	21
Rasmussen Reports	March 20, 2008	33%	51%	18

[edit] Idaho

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 17
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Larry LaRocco	Republican: Jim Risch	Independent: Rex Rammell	Lead Margin
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 16-September 17, 2008	33%	56%		23
Rasmussen Reports	September 9, 2008	30%	58%		28
Greg Smith & Associates	August 18-August 22, 2008	30%	41%	3%	11
Research 2000/Daily Kos	July 28-July 30, 2008	32%	42%	5%	10
Lake Research *	May 20-May 25, 2008	28%	43%	6%	15
Robinson Research *	November 26-December 12, 2007	27%	46%		19
Myers Research *	November 13-November 19, 2007	34%	48%		14
Survey USA	September 6-September 8, 2007	36%	52%		16

[edit] Kansas

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 16
Incumbent: Pat Roberts

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jim Slattery	Republican: Pat Roberts
Survey USA	October 28, 2008	33%	60%
Survey USA	October 22, 2008	35%	57%
Rasmussen Reports	October 13, 2008	36%	55%
Survey USA	September 22, 2008	35%	55%
Survey USA	August 18-August 20, 2008	31%	58%
Rasmussen Reports	August 11, 2008	37%	56%
Rasmussen Reports	July 15, 2008	33%	61%
TargetPoint Consulting, Inc.	June 27-July 1, 2008	34%	54%
SurveyUSA/ Public Opinion Strategies	June 22-June 23, 2008	34%	51%
Rasmussen Reports	June 11, 2008	39%	48%
Cooper & Secrest *	June 5-June 8, 2008	36%	48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	June 2-June 4, 2008	38%	50%
Rasmussen Reports	May 13, 2008	40%	52%

[edit] Kentucky

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 11
Incumbent: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Bruce Lunsford	Republican: Mitch McConnell
Survey USA	November 1, 2008	45%	53%
Rasmussen Reports	October 29, 2008	44%	51%
Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV	October 22, 2008	43%	47%
Rasmussen Reports	October 21, 2008	43%	50%
Survey USA	October 20, 2008	48%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	September 30, 2008	42%	51%
Louisville Courier-Journal/ Mason Dixon	September 22-September 25, 2008	44%	45%
Survey USA	September 21-September 22, 2008	46%	49%
Daily Kos/Research 2000	September 15-September 17, 2008	37%	50%
Voter/Consumer Research *	September 7-September 9, 2008	30%	52%
Survey USA	August 9-August 11, 2008	40%	52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	July 28-July 30, 2008	38%	49%
Rasmussen Reports	July 29, 2008	42%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	June 25, 2008	41%	48%
Voter/Consumer Research *	June 15-June 17, 2008	39%	50%
Survey USA	June 13-June 16, 2008	46%	50%
Rasmussen Reports	May 22, 2008	49%	44%
Voter/Consumer Research	May 21-May 22, 2008	39%	50%
Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV *	May 7-May 9, 2008	36%	48%
Voter/Consumer Research	January 6-January 8, 2008	37%	52%

[edit] Maine

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 12
Incumbent: Susan Collins

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Tom Allen	Republican: Susan Collins
Rasmussen Reports	November 1, 2008	41%	57%
Survey USA	October 20, 2008	43%	54%
Rasmussen Reports	October 2, 2008	43%	53%
Survey USA	September 23, 2008	39%	55%
Rasmussen Reports	September 17, 2008	42%	55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 8-September 10, 2008	38%	57%
Rasmussen Reports	August 12, 2008	40%	55%
Rasmussen Reports	July 17, 2008	43%	53%
Critical Insights	June 1-June 27, 2008	40%	50%
Pan Atlantic SMS Group	June 10-June 18, 2008	31%	56%
Rasmussen Reports	June 16, 2008	42%	49%
Rasmussen Reports	May 14, 2008	42%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	April 1, 2008	38%	54%
McLaughlin & Associates/ Coalition for a Democratic Workforce *	March 6-March 9, 2008	31%	54%
Critical Insights	October 12-October 30, 2007	34%	54%
Survey USA	October 26-October 29, 2007	38%	55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 15-October 17, 2007	33%	56%

[edit] Minnesota

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 8
Incumbent: Norm Coleman

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Al Franken	Republican: Norm Coleman	Independent: Dean Barkley
Survey USA	November 1, 2008	39%	44%	16%
Mason Dixon/ NBC	October 30, 2008	36%	43%	12%
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2008	39%	43%	14%
Rasmussen Reports	October 22, 2008	41%	37%	17%
Survey USA	October 18, 2008	39%	41%	18%
Rasmussen Reports	October 7, 2008	43%	37%	17%
Minneapolis Star-Tribune	September 30-October 2, 2008	43%	34%	18%
Survey USA	September 30-October 1, 2008	33%	43%	19%
Quinnipiac University/ Wall Street Journal/ Washington Post	September 14-September 21, 2008	42%	49%
Rasmussen Reports	September 18, 2008	47%	48%	3%
Big Ten	September 14-September 17, 2008	43%	39%
Star Tribune/Princeton University	September 10-September 12, 2008	41%	37%	13%
Survey USA	September 10-September 11, 2008	41%	40%	14%
Minnesota Public Radio	August 7-August 17, 2008	41%	40%
Survey USA	August 13-August 14, 2008	39%	46%
Rasmussen Reports	August 13, 2008	46%	49%
Rasmussen Reports	July 22, 2008	49%	46%
Quinnipiac University/ Wall Street Journal/ Washington Post	July 14-22 2008	38%	53%
Survey USA	July 11-July 13, 2008	39%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	July 10, 2008	44%	42%
Quinnipac University Wall Street Journal/ Washington Post	June 17-24 2008	41%	51%
Survey USA	June 10-June 12, 2008	40%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	June 11, 2008	45%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	May 22, 2008	45%	47%
Minneapolis Star-Tribune	May 12-May 15, 2008	44%	51%
Survey USA	April 30-May 1, 2008	42%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	April 22, 2008	43%	50%
Rasmussen Reports	March 19, 2008	46%	48%
Survey USA	March 12, 2008	41%	51%
McLaughlin & Associates *	March 6-March 9, 2008	40%	46%
Minnesota Public Radio/ Humphrey Institute for Public Affairs	January 20-January 27, 2008	43%	40%
Minnesota Public Radio/Mason Dixon	May 7-May 9, 2007	32%	54%

[edit] Mississippi

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Thad Cochran

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Erik Fleming	Republican: Thad Cochran
Rasmussen Reports	June 24, 2008	32%	59%
Rasmussen Reports	May 27, 2008	35%	58%

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 10
Incumbent: Roger Wicker(Special Election to Fill Trent Lott's Remaining Term)

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Ronnie Musgrove	Republican: Roger Wicker
Rasmussen Reports	October 27, 2008	43%	54%
Rasmussen Reports	September 30, 2008	47%	49%
Insider Advantage/Poll Position	September 24, 2008	43%	48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 8-September 10, 2008	43%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	August 21, 2008	43%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	July 28, 2008	43%	52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	July 21-July 23, 2008	44%	45%
Rasmussen Reports	June 24, 2008	47%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	May 27, 2008	47%	46%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	May 19-May 21, 2008	42%	46%
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee/ Hamiliton Campaigns *	May 15-May 18, 2008	48%	40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	December 10-December 12, 2007	39%	47%

[edit] Nebraska

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 18
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Scott Kleeb	Republican: Mike Johanns
Rasmussen Reports	September 30, 2008	38%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	July 28, 2008	34%	60%
Rasmussen Reports	June 23, 2008	33%	60%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	May 19-May 21, 2008	31%	58%
Rasmussen Reports	May 15, 2008	40%	55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	November 12-November 14, 2007	28%	59%

[edit] New Hampshire

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 3
Incumbent: John Sununu

Source	Date	Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen	Republican: John Sununu
Survey USA	October 30, 2008	53%	40%
Rasmussen Reports	October 30, 2008	52%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	October 23, 2008	52%	46%
Survey USA	October 4-October 5, 2008	48%	40%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	September 25-September 30, 2008	49%	35%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	September 22-September 24, 2008	50%	41%
Suffolk University	September 21-September 24, 2008	41%	40%
Rasmussen Reports	September 23, 2008	45%	52%
American Research Group	September 13-September 15, 2008	52%	40%
Public Opinion Strategies *	September 2-September 3, 2008	46%	44%
American Research Group	August 18-August 20, 2008	52%	41%
Rasmussen Reports	August 19, 2008	52%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	July 23, 2008	51%	45%
American Research Group	July 19-July 21, 2008	58%	36%
University of New Hampshire	July 11-July 20, 2008	46%	42%
Rasmussen Reports	June 20, 2008	53%	39%
Rasmussen Reports	May 23, 2008	50%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	March 21, 2008	49%	41%
Rasmussen Reports	February 13, 2008	49%	41%
University of New Hampshire	January 18-January 27, 2008	54%	37%
SurveyUSA	November 5, 2007	53%	42%
CNN/WMUR University of New Hampshire	September 17-September 24, 2007	54%	38%
Rasmussen Reports	September 16, 2007	48%	43%
CNN/WMUR/ University of New Hampshire	July 9-July 17, 2007	54%	38%
Research 2000	July 2007	56%	34%

[edit] New Mexico

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 2
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Tom Udall	Republican: Steve Pearce
Survey USA	October 31, 2008	56%	42%
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2008	56%	41%
Rasmussen Reports	October 13, 2008	57%	37%
Survey USA	October 13, 2008	58%	40%
Rasmussen Reports	October 1, 2008	55%	41%
Public Policy Polling	September 17-September 19, 2008	57%	37%
Survey USA	September 13, 2008	56%	41%
Myers Research/Grove Insight	September 10-September 12, 2008	57%	41%
Rasmussen Reports	September 8, 2008	51%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	August 20, 2008	52%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	July 24, 2008	61%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	June 18, 2008	58%	30%
Survey USA	May 30-June 1, 2008	60%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	May 14, 2008	53%	37%
Survey USA	May 12-May 14, 2008	60%	36%
Rasmussen Reports	April 8, 2008	54%	40%
New Mexico State University	January 22-January 31, 2008	53%	31%
Survey USA	November 16-November 19, 2007	54%	40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	November 5-November 7, 2007	54%	37%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates *	October 23-October 27, 2007	50%	33%

[edit] North Carolina

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 7
Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Kay Hagan	Republican: Elizabeth Dole	Libertarian: Chris Cole
Survey USA	November 2, 2008	50%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	October 29, 2008	52%	46%
Survey USA	October 20, 2008	46%	45%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 8, 2008	49%	44%	2%
Survey USA	October 5-October 6, 2008	43%	44%	7%
Public Policy Polling	September 28-September 29, 2008	46%	38%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	September 23, 2008	48%	45%
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research	September 17-September 20, 2008	41%	43%	5%
Public Policy Polling	September 17-September 19, 2008	46%	41%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	September 18, 2008	51%	45%
Elon University	September 15-September 16, 2008	35%	35%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 8-September 10, 2008	42%	48%
Survey USA	September 6-8 2008	40%	48%	7%
Garin Hart Yang	September 5-September 7, 2008	46%	48%
Democracy Corps/ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *	August 20-26 2008	50%	45%
Public Policy Polling	August 23, 2008	42%	39%	5%
Insider Advantage	August 19, 2008	40%	40%
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research	August 14-August 17, 2008	41%	44%	4%
Survey USA	August 9-August 11, 2008	41%	46%	7%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	July 28-July 30, 2008	42%	50%
Public Policy Polling	July 23-July 27, 2008	40%	49%	4%
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research	July 14-July 16, 2008	38%	47%	2%
Rasmussen Reports	July 15, 2008	43%	54%
Survey USA	July 12-July 14, 2008	42%	54%
The Tarrance Group *	July 7-July 9, 2008	36%	51%	6%
Public Policy Polling	June 26-June 29, 2008	37%	51%
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research	June 11-June 13, 2008	38%	48%	1%
Rasmussen Reports	June 10, 2008	39%	53%
Public Policy Polling	May 28-May 29, 2008	39%	47%
Anzalone Liszt Research *	May 14-May 21, 2008	44%	48%
Survey USA	May 17-May 19, 2008	46%	50%
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research	May 14-May 17, 2008	43%	45%
Public Policy Polling	May 8-May 9, 2008	43%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	May 8, 2008	48%	47%
Research 2000/ Daily Kos	April 28-April 30, 2008	41%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	April 10, 2008	39%	52%
Public Policy Polling	February 18, 2008	33%	50%

[edit] Oklahoma

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 15
Incumbent: Jim Inhofe

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Andrew Rice	Republican: Jim Inhofe
Survey USA	October 28-October 29, 2008	36%	56%
Survey USA	October 18-October 19, 2008	39%	51%
Survey USA	September 28-September 29, 2008	37%	53%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 16-September 18, 2008	34%	56%
Rasmussen Reports	September 11, 2008	39%	55%
Survey USA	September 5-September 7, 2008	34%	56%
Benenson Strategy Group *	August 12-August 14, 2008	41%	50%
Sooner Poll	July 19-July 23, 2008	30%	52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	June 9-June 11, 2008	31%	53%
Tulsa World/KOTV/SoonerPoll	December 16-December 19, 2007	19%	60%
Benenson Strategy Group *	December 8-December 12, 2007	35%	49%

[edit] Oregon

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 6
Incumbent: Gordon Smith

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jeff Merkley	Republican: Gordon Smith
Rasmussen Reports	October 30, 2008	49%	46%
Survey USA	October 25-October 26, 2008	49%	42%
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall	October 23-October 25, 2008	45%	40%
Rasmussen Reports	October 14, 2008	47%	47%
Survey USA	October 11-October 12, 2008	46%	41%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 22-September 24, 2008	45%	40%
Survey USA	September 23, 2008	44%	42%
Rasmussen Reports	September 15, 2008	45%	46%
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall	September 11-September 14, 2008	39%	42%
Benenson Strategy Group *	September 7-September 9, 2008	43%	41%
Rasmussen Reports	August 7, 2008	44%	50%
Survey USA	August 4, 2008	37%	49%
Rasmussen Reports	July 15, 2008	43%	41%
U.S. Chamber of Commerce *	June 26, 2008	34%	38%
Rasmussen Reports	June 11, 2008	38%	47%
Feldman Group/ Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee *	May 12-May 16, 2008	42%	45%
Rasmussen Reports	May 7, 2008	42%	45%
Rasmussen Reports	February 13, 2007	30%	48%

[edit] South Carolina

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Lindsey Graham

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Bob Conley	Republican: Lindsey Graham
Survey USA	October 29, 2008	39%	58%
Survey USA	October 13, 2008	40%	56%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 22-24 2008	42%	51%
Survey USA	September 22, 2008	40%	54%
Rasmussen Reports	September 18, 2008	41%	50%
Public Policy Polling	July 9-11 2008	32%	54%

[edit] Tennessee

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Lamar Alexander

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Bob Tuke	Republican: Lamar Alexander
Rasmussen Reports	October 16, 2008	34%	62%
Rasmussen Reports	September 29, 2008	32%	56%
Middle Tennessee State University	September 15-September 27, 2008	26%	50%
Ayers, McHenry & Associates *	August 10-August 12, 2008	30%	60%
Rasmussen Reports	April 3, 2008	30%	59%
Ayers, McHenry & Associates *	March 5-March 9, 2008	28%	59%

[edit] Texas

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 19
Incumbent: John Cornyn

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Rick Noriega	Republican: John Cornyn
Rasmussen Reports	October 21, 2008	40%	55%
Rasmussen Reports	September 29, 2008	43%	50%
Rasmussen Reports	August 21, 2008	38%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	July 30, 2008	39%	50%
University of Texas	July 18-July 30, 2008	31%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	June 25, 2008	35%	48%
Texas Lyceum *	June 12-June 20, 2008	36%	38%
Rasmussen Reports	June 2, 2008	35%	52%
Baselice & Associates *	May 20 - May 25, 2008	33%	49%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	May 5 - May 7, 2008	44%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	May 1, 2008	43%	47%
Research 2000	September 24 - 26 2007	35%	51%
Rasmussen Reports	September 18, 2007	30%	53%

[edit] Virginia

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 1
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mark Warner	Republican: Jim Gilmore
Survey USA	November 1, 2008	59%	35%
Survey USA	October 26, 2008	63%	32%
Survey USA	October 19, 2008	60%	36%
Rasmussen Reports	October 16, 2008	61%	36%
Rasmussen Reports	September 25, 2008	60%	34%
Survey USA	September 19-September 21, 2008	57%	34%
Public Policy Polling	September 13-September 14, 2008	57%	33%
Survey USA	September 12-September 14, 2008	57%	34%
Survey USA	September 5-September 7, 2008	56%	35%
Public Policy Polling	August 20 - August 22, 2008	55%	32%
SurveyUSA	August 8-August 10, 2008	58%	34%
Public Policy Polling	July 17 - July 20, 2008	57%	32%
Rasmussen Reports	July 16, 2008	59%	36%
Public Policy Polling	June 14 - June 16, 2008	59%	28%
Rasmussen Reports	June 12, 2008	60%	33%
Rasmussen Reports	May 8, 2008	55%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	April 1, 2008	55%	39%
Rasmussen Reports	February 21, 2008	57%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	January 3, 2008	53%	38%
SurveyUSA	November 5, 2007	57%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	October 30, 2007	53%	37%
Washington Post	October 4-October 8, 2007	61%	31%
Christopher Newport University	September 27-October 1, 2007	51%	27%
Survey USA	September 14-September 16, 2007	60%	32%
Rasmussen Reports	September 6, 2007	54%	34%

[edit] Wyoming

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: John Barasso(Special Election to Fill Craig Thomas' Remaining Term)

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Nick Carter	Republican: John Barasso	Lead Margin
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 22-September 24, 2008	34%	58%	24

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Mike Enzi

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Chris Rothfuss	Republican: Mike Enzi	Lead Margin
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 22-September 24, 2008	35%	59%	24

[edit] Other 2008 Senate Races

Incumbents in Bold

State	Primary Date	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Arkansas National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --	May 20, 2008	Mark Pryor	None	Rebekeh Kennedy(Green)

[edit] Notes

• * a poll commissioned by an organization affiliated with a specific candidate (not used in calculating results below).

[edit] Predicted Results Based on Polling and Predictions

Projected Composition of the 111th Senate: Democrats: 56(+7), Republicans: 40(-9), Too close to call: 2, Independents: 2

Republican Holds AL-Jeff Sessions ID-Jim Risch Larry Craig-retiring KS-Pat Roberts KY-Mitch McConnell ME-Susan Collins MN-Norm Coleman MS-Thad Cochran NE-Mike Johanns Chuck Hagel-retiring OK-Jim Inhofe SC-Lindsey Graham TN-Lamar Alexander TX-John Cornyn WY-Michael Enzi WY-John Barrasso

Democratic Holds AR-Mark Pryor DE-Joseph Biden IL-Richard Durbin IA-Tom Harkin LA-Mary Landrieu MA-John Kerry MI-Carl Levin MT-Max Baucus NJ-Frank Lautenberg RI-Jack Reed SD-Tim Johnson WV-Jay Rockefeller

Swing Seats AK-Mark Begich (Democratic Gain) Ted Stevens (R) Incumbent CO-Mark Udall (Democratic Gain) Wayne Allard (R) Retiring NC-Kay Hagan (Democratic Gain) Elizabeth Dole (R) Incumbent NH-Jeanne Shaheen(Democratic Gain) John Sununu(R) Incumbent NM-Tom Udall (Democratic Gain) Pete Domenici (R) Retiring OR-Jeff Merkley (Democratic Gain) Gordon Smith (R) VA-Mark Warner (Democratic Gain) John Warner (R) Retiring

Tie

• None

In Play

• GA-Saxby Chambliss
• MS-Roger Wicker

[edit] Maps of polling data

Safe Democrat - >8% (12) (+4 Democrat - 53D / 45R / 2I )

Leans Democrat - >2% (1) (+5 Democrat - 54D / 44R / 2I )

Tossup - within 2% (2)

Leans Republican - >2% (2) (-7 Republican - 56D / 42R / 2I )

Safe Republican - >8% (12) (-9 Republican - 58D / 40R / 2I )

Unpolled - (6)

*Please note maps are based on a different algorithm than totals above. Click on map for details. Maps are based on an average for previous polling data, and as such may be slow to show changes in countrywide opinion. Unpolled elections are presumed safe for incumbent in +/- totals. Map and totals updated on September 18, 2008.

[edit] Election Day projection

FINAL UPDATE: 22:32, 4 November 2008 (UTC)

• Data derived from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com weighted averages and statistical polling analysis, which determines what the best guess as to what will happen on Election Day is rather than what would happen if the election were held today. (Methodology)
• Each state is colored according to which candidate is currently projected to win, and both the state's total electoral votes and the winning candidate's projected margin of victory are listed.

[edit] External links

• Senate Elections
• Opinion Polling

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