Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2012

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This page lists public opinion polls in connection with the 2012 French presidential election. The first round of the election was held on 22 April 2012, with Socialist Party candidate François Hollande winning the most votes, but failing to secure an overall majority.[1] Hollande ultimately won a deciding runoff election on 6 May, defeating incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy to become the 24th President of France.[2][3]

First round[edit]

November 2007 to June 2009[edit]

October 2009 to June 2011[edit]

July 2011 to September 2011[edit]

October 2011 to 19 March 2012[edit]

19 March 2012 to 22 April 2012[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample size Abstention/
protest vote/spoilt vote
Le Pen, Marine-9586.jpg Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 11-09-2011.jpg photographie de Nicolas Sarkozy Jacques-Cheminade 2.jpg Francois bayrou close.jpg EVA JOLY 053.jpg François Hollande (Journées de Nantes 2012).jpg Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Place au Peuple) 001 (redécoupé).jpg Philippe Poutou 2011.jpg NathalieArthaud.jpg
Le Pen
FN
Dupont-Aignan
DLR
Sarkozy
UMPInc.
Cheminade
SP
Bayrou
MoDem
Joly
EELV
Hollande
PS
Mélenchon
FDG
Poutou
NPA
Arthaud
LO
CSA 19–20 March 2012 888 10% 13.5% 0.5% 30% 0% 13% 2% 28% 13% 0% 0%
BVA 21–22 March 2012 926 4% 13% 1.5% 28% 0% 12% 2% 29.5% 14% 0% 0%
Ipsos 23–24 March 2012 978 12% 16% 1% 27.5% 0% 11.5% 2% 28% 13% 0.5% 0.5%
Harris 22–26 March 2012 1,231 16% 1% 28% 0% 11% 3% 27% 13% 0.5% 0.5%
Opinion Way 26–27 March 2012 1,148 9% 17% 1% 28% 0.5% 12% 2% 27% 11% 0.5% 1%
TNS-sofres 26–27 March 2012 1,000 22% 15% 1% 29% 0.5% 10% 2% 28% 13.5% 0.5% 0.5%
CSA 26–27 March 2012 876 14% 15% 0.5% 30% 0% 12.5% 2.5% 26% 12.5% 0.5% 0.5%
BVA 29–31 March 2012 2,555 7% 15% 1% 27% 0% 11% 2% 28% 14% 1% 1%
LH2 30–31 March 2012 973 17% 13.5% 0.5% 27.5% 0% 12% 2% 28.5% 15% 0.5% 0.5%
Ipsos 30–31 March 2012 881 11% 14% 1% 29.5% 0% 10% 2% 27.5% 14.5% 0.5% 1%
Harris 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2012 1,059 16% 1% 29% 0% 10% 3% 26% 14% 0.5% 0%
CSA 2–3 April 2012 884 13% 0.5% 30% 0% 10% 1.5% 29% 15% 0.5% 0.5%
Opinion Way 3–4 April 2012 969 9% 16% 1% 28.5% 0% 11% 2% 26% 14% 1% 0.5%
Harris 3–6 April 2012 1,033 16% 1% 28% 0% 10% 3% 27% 13% 1% 1%
Ifop 5–7 April 2012 1,869 16.5% 1% 28.5% 0% 9.5% 2.5% 27% 14% 0.5% 0.5%
Ipsos 6–7 April 2012 955 10% 15% 1% 29% 0% 9.5% 1.5% 28.5% 14.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Opinion Way 10–11 April 2012 1,007 12% 16% 2% 28% 0% 10% 2.5% 27% 13% 1% 1%
CSA 10–11 April 2012 1,013 15% 1% 26% 0.5% 11% 1.5% 27% 17% 0.5% 0.5%
BVA 11–12 April 2012 885 4% 15% 0.5% 27% 0.5% 11% 2% 30% 13% 0.5% 0.5%
TNS-sofres 11–12 April 2012 1,000 27% 16% 1% 26% 0% 9% 2.5% 28% 16% 0.5% 1%
Ifop 12–15 April 2012 1,808 15.5% 1% 27% 0% 9.5% 3% 28% 14.5% 1% 0.5%
Harris 12–16 April 2012 991 17% 1.5% 28% 0% 11% 2% 27% 12% 1% 0.5%
Ipsos 13–14 April 2012 894 14% 15.5% 1% 27% 0.5% 10% 2.5% 27% 14.5% 1% 1%
CSA 16–17 April 2012 886 17% 1.5% 24% 0% 10% 2% 29% 15% 1% 0.5%
BVA 16–17 April 2012 1,181 14% 1% 27.5% 0% 12% 2% 29.5% 13% 1% 0%
Opinion Way 16–17 April 2012 1,002 8% 16% 1.5% 27.5% 0% 10% 2% 27.5% 13% 2% 0.5%
LH2 17–18 April 2012 956 28% 15.5% 1.5% 26.5% 0% 10% 2.5% 27% 15% 1% 1%
Ifop 17–20 April 2012 2,592 16% 1.5% 27% 0% 10.5% 3% 27% 13.5% 1% 0.5%
CSA 18–19 April 2012 1,005 16% 1.5% 25% 0% 10.5% 2% 28% 14.5% 1.5% 1%
BVA 18–19 April 2012 2,161 5% 14% 2% 26.5% 0% 10% 2% 30% 14% 1.5% 0%
Ipsos 18–19 April 2012 1,021 14% 16% 1.5% 25.5% 0.5% 10% 2% 29% 14% 1.5% 0%
Harris 18–19 April 2012 1,068 16% 2% 26.5% 0% 11% 3% 27.5% 12% 1.5% 0.5%
TNS-sofres 18–19 April 2012 1,000 17% 2% 27% 0% 10% 3% 27% 13% 1% 0%
First round results 22 April 2012 20.53% 17.90% 1.79% 27.18% 0.25% 9.13% 2.31% 28.63% 11.11% 1.15% 0.56%

Runoff polls[edit]

The tables below display public poll figures for hypothetical runoff elections between individual 2012 presidential candidates. The candidates include then-President and UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, Socialist Party (PS) candidate François Hollande, and National Front leader Marine Le Pen. The PS First Secretary, Martine Aubry, is also listed in polls which pre-date the selection of Hollande as the PS presidential candidate in October 2011.[24] For the actual 6 May 2012 runoff between Sarkozy and Hollande, poll figures are listed from before and after the 22 April first-round election. Hollande ultimately won the runoff, gaining around 51.6% of the national vote, to Sarkozy's 48.4%.[25]

Sarkozy–Hollande[edit]

Before the first round[edit]

After the first round[edit]

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Abstention/
protest vote/
spoilt vote
Flickr - europeanpeoplesparty - EPP Summit October 2010 (105).jpg François Hollande (Journées de Nantes 2012).jpg
Nicolas Sarkozy
UMPIncumbent
François Hollande
PS
Ifop 22 April 2012 1,004 45.5% 54.5%
Ipsos 22 April 2012 1,090 15% 46% 54%
CSA 22 April 2012 1,009 44% 56%
OpinionWay 22 April 2012 7,900 46% 54%
BVA 22 April 2012 678 10% 47% 53%
Harris Interactive 22 April 2012 1,088 46% 54%
OpinionWay 23–24 April 2012 1,227 15% 46% 54%
TNS-sofres 24–25 April 2012 1,000 27% 45% 55%
CSA 24–25 April 2012 1,009 46% 54%
BVA 24–25 April 2012 1,467 45.5% 54.5%
Ifop 25 April 2012 1,507 45% 55%
Harris Interactive 25–26 April 2012 1,032 45% 55%
Ifop 26–29 April 2012 1,962 46% 54%
LH2 27–28 April 2012 958 46% 54%
Ipsos 27–28 April 2012 988 47% 53%
BVA 30 April – 1 May 2012 1,387 46.5% 53.5%
LH2 30 April – 2 May 2012 1,565 47% 53%
OpinionWay 2–3 May 2012 2,101 47.5% 52.5%
Harris Interacive 2–3 May 2012 1,072 47% 53%
BVA 3 May 2012 2,161 47.5% 52.5%
Ipsos 3 May 2012 1,018 47.5% 52.5%
CSA 3 May 2012 1,002 47% 53%
TNS-sofres
3 May 2012 1,000 46.5% 53.5%
Ifop 4 May 2012 1,225 48% 52%
Runoff results[25] 6 May 2012 48.36% 51.64%

Sarkozy–Aubry[edit]

Sarkozy–Le Pen[edit]

Le Pen–Aubry[edit]

Le Pen–Hollande[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Francois Hollande 'beats Nicolas Sarkozy' in presidential election first round". The Daily Telegraph, 22 April 2012.
  2. ^ "France run-off candidates: Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande". BBC News, 23 April 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-24.
  3. ^ "François Hollande wins French presidential election". The Guardian, 6 May 2012.
  4. ^ [1][dead link]
  5. ^ Sondages CSA : Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle 26/02/2008[dead link]
  6. ^ [2][dead link]
  7. ^ "Le Politiscope" (PDF, in French). Le Figaro. 30 April 2009. Retrieved 7 July 2013.
  8. ^ "Le Politiscope" (PDF, in French). Le Figaro. 18 June 2009. Retrieved 7 July 2013.
  9. ^ http://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/979-1-study_file.pdf
  10. ^ [3][dead link]
  11. ^ [4][dead link]
  12. ^ "Présidentielles 2012 – Intentions de vote aux élections – Sondages en France". Sondages-en-france.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011. 
  13. ^ "[EXCLUSIF] Sondage: le choc DSK – Politique – Nouvelobs.com". Tempsreel.nouvelobs.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011. 
  14. ^ "Ifop: 19 November 2010". ifop.com. Retrieved 19 July 2011. 
  15. ^ "Sondage TNS-Sofres : DSK écraserait Sarkozy". Scribd.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011. 
  16. ^ [5][dead link]
  17. ^ "Sondage: Marine Le Pen 3e derrière Sarkozy et Aubry – L'EXPRESS". Lexpress.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011. 
  18. ^ "DSK et Aubry battraient Sarkozy – L'EXPRESS". Lexpress.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011. 
  19. ^ "CSA: 17 January 2011". CSA. Retrieved 19 July 2011. 
  20. ^ "Opinion Way: 21 January 2011". Liberation.fr. Retrieved 19 July 2011. 
  21. ^ "CSA: 14 February 2011". CSA.fr. Retrieved 19 July 2011. 
  22. ^ "Harris Interactive France – Institut d'études de marché". Harrisinteractive.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011. 
  23. ^ "Sondage présidentielle 2012. Sauf pour DSK, rien n’est joué – actu-match". ParisMatch.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011. 
  24. ^ "Hollande wins – How centrist will the French Socialist candidate be?". New Statesman, 17 October 2011. Retrieved 29 January 2012.
  25. ^ a b "Francois Hollande celebrates French presidential win". BBC News, 7 May 2012.