Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2012

This page lists public opinion polls in connection with the 2012 French presidential election. The first round of the election was held on 22 April 2012, with Socialist Party candidate François Hollande winning the most votes, but failing to secure an overall majority.^[1] Hollande ultimately won a deciding runoff election on 6 May, defeating incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy.^[2]^[3]

[edit] First round

[edit] November 2007 to June 2009

[edit] October 2009 to June 2011

[edit] July 2011 to September 2011

[edit] October 2011 to 19 March 2012

[edit] 19 March 2012 to 22 April 2012

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/spoilt vote

				Le Pen FN	Dupont-Aignan DLR	Sarkozy UMP – Inc.	Cheminade SP	Bayrou MoDem	Joly EELV	Hollande PS	Mélenchon FDG	Poutou NPA	Arthaud LO
CSA	19–20 March 2012	888	10%	13.5%	0.5%	30%	0%	13%	2%	28%	13%	0%	0%
BVA	21–22 March 2012	926	4%	13%	1.5%	28%	0%	12%	2%	29.5%	14%	0%	0%
Ipsos	23–24 March 2012	978	12%	16%	1%	27.5%	0%	11.5%	2%	28%	13%	0.5%	0.5%
Harris	22–26 March 2012	1,231	–	16%	1%	28%	0%	11%	3%	27%	13%	0.5%	0.5%
Opinion Way	26–27 March 2012	1,148	9%	17%	1%	28%	0.5%	12%	2%	27%	11%	0.5%	1%
TNS-sofres	26–27 March 2012	1,000	22%	15%	1%	29%	0.5%	10%	2%	28%	13.5%	0.5%	0.5%
CSA	26–27 March 2012	876	14%	15%	0.5%	30%	0%	12.5%	2.5%	26%	12.5%	0.5%	0.5%
BVA	29–31 March 2012	2,555	7%	15%	1%	27%	0%	11%	2%	28%	14%	1%	1%
LH2	30–31 March 2012	973	17%	13.5%	0.5%	27.5%	0%	12%	2%	28.5%	15%	0.5%	0.5%
Ipsos	30–31 March 2012	881	11%	14%	1%	29.5%	0%	10%	2%	27.5%	14.5%	0.5%	1%
Harris	29 Mar – 2 Apr 2012	1,059	–	16%	1%	29%	0%	10%	3%	26%	14%	0.5%	0%
CSA	2–3 April 2012	884	–	13%	0.5%	30%	0%	10%	1.5%	29%	15%	0.5%	0.5%
Opinion Way	3–4 April 2012	969	9%	16%	1%	28.5%	0%	11%	2%	26%	14%	1%	0.5%
Harris	3–6 April 2012	1,033	–	16%	1%	28%	0%	10%	3%	27%	13%	1%	1%
Ifop	5–7 April 2012	1,869	–	16.5%	1%	28.5%	0%	9.5%	2.5%	27%	14%	0.5%	0.5%
Ipsos	6–7 April 2012	955	10%	15%	1%	29%	0%	9.5%	1.5%	28.5%	14.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Opinion Way	10–11 April 2012	1,007	12%	16%	2%	28%	0%	10%	2.5%	27%	13%	1%	1%
CSA	10–11 April 2012	1,013	–	15%	1%	26%	0.5%	11%	1.5%	27%	17%	0.5%	0.5%
BVA	11–12 April 2012	885	4%	15%	0.5%	27%	0.5%	11%	2%	30%	13%	0.5%	0.5%
TNS-sofres	11–12 April 2012	1,000	27%	16%	1%	26%	0%	9%	2.5%	28%	16%	0.5%	1%
Ifop	12–15 April 2012	1,808	–	15.5%	1%	27%	0%	9.5%	3%	28%	14.5%	1%	0.5%
Harris	12–16 April 2012	991	–	17%	1.5%	28%	0%	11%	2%	27%	12%	1%	0.5%
Ipsos	13–14 April 2012	894	14%	15.5%	1%	27%	0.5%	10%	2.5%	27%	14.5%	1%	1%
CSA	16–17 April 2012	886	–	17%	1.5%	24%	0%	10%	2%	29%	15%	1%	0.5%
BVA	16–17 April 2012	1,181	–	14%	1%	27.5%	0%	12%	2%	29.5%	13%	1%	0%
Opinion Way	16–17 April 2012	1,002	8%	16%	1.5%	27.5%	0%	10%	2%	27.5%	13%	2%	0.5%
LH2	17–18 April 2012	956	28%	15.5%	1.5%	26.5%	0%	10%	2.5%	27%	15%	1%	1%
Ifop	17–20 April 2012	2,592	–	16%	1.5%	27%	0%	10.5%	3%	27%	13.5%	1%	0.5%
CSA	18–19 April 2012	1,005	–	16%	1.5%	25%	0%	10.5%	2%	28%	14.5%	1.5%	1%
BVA	18–19 April 2012	2,161	5%	14%	2%	26.5%	0%	10%	2%	30%	14%	1.5%	0%
Ipsos	18–19 April 2012	1,021	14%	16%	1.5%	25.5%	0.5%	10%	2%	29%	14%	1.5%	0%
Harris	18–19 April 2012	1,068	–	16%	2%	26.5%	0%	11%	3%	27.5%	12%	1.5%	0.5%
TNS-sofres	18–19 April 2012	1,000	–	17%	2%	27%	0%	10%	3%	27%	13%	1%	0%

First round results	22 April 2012	–	20.53%	17.90%	1.79%	27.18%	0.25%	9.13%	2.31%	28.63%	11.11%	1.15%	0.56%

[edit] Runoff polls

These are public poll figures for hypothetical runoff elections between individual 2012 presidential candidates. The candidates include then-President and UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, Socialist Party (PS) candidate François Hollande, and National Front leader Marine Le Pen. The PS First Secretary, Martine Aubry, is also listed in polls which pre-date the selection of Hollande as the PS presidential candidate in October 2011.^[24] For the actual 6 May 2012 runoff between Sarkozy and Hollande, poll figures are listed from before and after the 22 April first-round election. Hollande ultimately won the runoff, gaining around 51.6% of the national vote, to Sarkozy's 48.4%.^[25]

[edit] Sarkozy–Hollande

[edit] Before the first round

Before first round
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/ spoilt vote

				Nicolas Sarkozy UMP – Incumbent	François Hollande PS
CSA	4–5 November 2009	910	40%	57%	43%
TNS Sofres	20–21 August 2010	1,000	19%	50%	50%
Ifop	18–19 November 2010	811	–	47%	53%
TNS Sofres	19–20 November 2010	1,000	24%	45%	55%
CSA	17–18 January 2011	847	–	45%	55%
CSA	14–15 February 2011	1,005	–	46%	54%
TNS Sofres	18–19 February 2011	1,000	22%	44%	56%
Ifop	20–21 April 2011	917	–	44%	56%
LH2	6–7 May 2011	565	14%	40%	60%
BVA	20–21 May 2011	960	19%	38%	62%
TNS Sofres	20–21 May 2011	1,013	15%	42%	58%
Harris Interactive	3–5 June 2011	1,449	–	40%	60%
LH2	8–9 July 2011	957	7%	40%	60%
BVA	8–9 July 2011	782	–	42%	58%
Ifop	19–21 July 2011	1,002	–	43%	57%
Ifop	30 August – 2 September 2011	1,918	–	41%	59%
LH2	2–3 September 2011	818	–	43%	57%
LH2	30 September – 1 October 2011	975	–	40%	60%
CSA	17 October 2011	1,010	–	38%	62%
BVA	17–18 October 2011	950	–	36%	64%
Ifop	18–20 October 2011	941	–	40%	60%
LH2	21–22 October 2011	975	–	40%	60%
Ipsos	28–29 October 2011	970	15%	38%	62%
BVA	4–5 November 2011	973	–	39%	61%
Ipsos	2–3 December 2011	955	–	40%	60%
CSA	12–13 December 2011	1,006	25%	42%	58%
Ifop	4–6 January 2012	1,163	–	46%	54%
BVA	6–7 January 2012	973	24%	43%	57%
CSA	9–10 January 2012	1,005	15%	43%	57%
Opinion Way	10–11 January 2012	1,060	28%	45%	55%
Ifop	11–13 January 2012	1,550	–	43%	57%
LH2	13–14 January 2012	966	22%	43%	57%
Ipsos	13–14 January 2012	949	–	41%	59%
BVA	18–19 January 2012	974	19%	43%	57%
CSA	23–24 January 2012	898	19%	40%	60%
Opinion Way	23–25 January 2012	1,087	23%	44%	56%
Ifop	29–30 January 2012	1,387	–	42%	58%
TNS-sofres	30 January 2012	1,000	21%	42%	58%
BVA	30–31 January 2012	1,448	15%	43%	57%
LH2	3–4 February 2012	955	22%	43%	57%
BVA	3–4 February 2012	968	14%	42%	58%
Ipsos	3–4 February 2012	953	–	41%	59%
CSA	6–7 February 2012	869	19%	40%	60%
Opinion Way	6–8 February 2012	1,346	14%	44%	56%
Ifop	9–12 February 2012	1,723	–	42.5%	57.5%
Harris Interactive	9–13 February 2012	954	–	43%	57%
BVA	15–16 February 2012	949	15%	44%	56%
LH2	17–18 February 2012	967	25%	45%	55%
Opinion Way	17–18 February 2012	975	25%	44%	56%
Ipsos	17–18 February 2012	969	21%	41%	59%
CSA	20 February 2012	891	19%	44%	56%
Ipsos	24–25 February 2012	959	16%	42%	58%
Ifop	23–26 February 2012	1,723	–	43.5%	56.5%
TNS-sofres	28 February 2012	1,000	25%	43%	57%
LH2	2–3 March 2012	971	–	42%	58%
BVA	2–3 March 2012	963	–	41%	59%
Ipsos	2–3 March 2012	966	20%	42%	58%
Harris Interactive	1–5 March 2012	975	–	44%	56%
CSA	5 March 2012	888	19%	44%	56%
Opinion Way	5–7 March 2012	1,221	24%	44%	56%
Ifop	11–12 March 2012	1,638	–	45.5%	54.5%
TNS-sofres	12 March 2012	1,000	24%	42%	58%
CSA	12–13 March 2012	861	17%	46%	54%
Opinion Way	14–15 March 2012	1,183	20%	45%	55%
Ifop	16–17 March 2012	961	–	46%	54%
LH2	16–17 March 2012	962	22%	45%	55%
Ipsos	16–17 March 2012	950	17%	44%	56%
Harris Interactive	15–19 March 2012	1,097	–	44%	56%
CSA	19–20 March 2012	888	16%	46%	54%
BVA	21–22 March 2012	926	12%	46%	54%
Ipsos	23–24 March 2012	978	19%	46%	54%
Harris Interactive	22–26 March 2012	1,231	–	46%	54%
Opinion Way	26–27 March 2012	1,148	19%	46%	54%
TNS-sofres	26–27 March 2012	1,000	22%	45%	55%
CSA	26–27 March 2012	876	19%	47%	53%
LH2	30–31 March 2012	973	21%	46%	54%
Ipsos	30–31 March 2012	881	17%	45%	55%
Harris Interactive	29 March – 2 April 2012	1,059	–	47%	53%
CSA	2–3 April 2012	884	–	46%	54%
Opinion Way	3–4 April 2012	969	21%	47%	53%
Harris Interactive	3–6 April 2012	1,033	–	47%	53%
Ifop	5–7 April 2012	1,869	–	47%	53%
Ipsos	6–7 April 2012	955	14%	45%	55%
Opinion Way	10–12 April 2012	1,007	21%	46%	54%
CSA	10–11 April 2012	1,013	–	43%	57%
BVA	11–12 April 2012	885	14%	44%	56%
TNS-sofres	11–12 April 2012	1,000	23%	44%	56%
Ipsos	13–14 April 2012	894	18%	44%	56%
Ifop	12–15 April 2012	1,808	-	44.5%	55.5%
Harris Interactive	12–16 April 2012	991	-	47%	53%
CSA	16–17 April 2012	886	-	42%	58%
BVA	16–17 April 2012	1,161	14%	44%	56%
Opinion Way	16–17 April 2012	1,002	20%	45%	55%
LH2	17–18 April 2012	956	23%	44%	56%
Ifop	17–20 April 2012	2,592	–	46%	54%
CSA	18–19 April 2012	1,005	-	43%	57%
BVA	18–19 April 2012	2,161	-	43%	57%
Ipsos	18–19 April 2012	1,021	-	44%	56%
Harris Interactive	18–19 April 2012	1,068	-	46%	54%
TNS-sofres	18–19 April 2012	1,000	-	45%	55%
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/ spoilt vote

				Nicolas Sarkozy UMP – Incumbent	François Hollande PS

[edit] After the first round

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/ spoilt vote

				Nicolas Sarkozy UMP – Incumbent	François Hollande PS
Ifop	22 April 2012	1,004	–	45.5%	54.5%
Ipsos	22 April 2012	1,090	15%	46%	54%
CSA	22 April 2012	1,009	–	44%	56%
OpinionWay	22 April 2012	7,900	–	46%	54%
BVA	22 April 2012	678	10%	47%	53%
Harris Interactive	22 April 2012	1,088	–	46%	54%
OpinionWay	23–24 April 2012	1,227	15%	46%	54%
TNS-sofres	24–25 April 2012	1,000	27%	45%	55%
CSA	24–25 April 2012	1,009	–	46%	54%
BVA	24–25 April 2012	1,467	–	45.5%	54.5%
Ifop	25 April 2012	1,507	–	45%	55%
Harris Interactive	25–26 April 2012	1,032	–	45%	55%
Ifop	26–29 April 2012	1,962	–	46%	54%
LH2	27–28 April 2012	958	–	46%	54%
Ipsos	27–28 April 2012	988	–	47%	53%
BVA	30 April – 1 May 2012	1,387	–	46.5%	53.5%
LH2	30 April – 2 May 2012	1,565	–	47%	53%
OpinionWay	2–3 May 2012	2,101	–	47.5%	52.5%
Harris Interacive	2–3 May 2012	1,072	–	47%	53%
BVA	3 May 2012	2,161	–	47.5%	52.5%
Ipsos	3 May 2012	1,018	–	47.5%	52.5%
CSA	3 May 2012	1,002	–	47%	53%
TNS-sofres	3 May 2012	1,000	–	46.5%	53.5%
Ifop	4 May 2012	1,225	–	48%	52%

Runoff results^[25]	6 May 2012	–	–	48.36%	51.64%

[edit] Sarkozy–Aubry

Sarkozy – Aubry
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/ spoilt vote

				Nicolas Sarkozy UMP – Incumbent	Martine Aubry PS
CSA	4–5 November 2009	910	39%	53%	47%
CSA	2–3 February 2010	802	30%	52%	48%
CSA	24–25 March 2010	843	34%	48%	52%
CSA	19–20 May 2010	779	35%	49%	51%
CSA	7–8 July 2010	809	37%	48%	52%
TNS Sofres	20–21 August 2010	1,000	19%	47%	53%
Harris Interactive	9–10 November 2010	910	–	49%	51%
Ifop	18–19 November 2010	811	–	48%	52%
TNS Sofres	19–20 November 2010	1,000	22%	45%	55%
BVA	14–15 January 2011	971	–	43%	57%
CSA	17–18 January 2011	847	–	44%	56%
CSA	14–15 February 2011	1,005	–	46%	54%
TNS Sofres	18–19 February 2011	1,000	23%	44%	56%
Opinion Way	6–7 April 2011	991	30%	44%	56%
Ifop	20–21 April 2011	917	–	45%	55%
LH2	6–7 May 2011	565	16%	44%	56%
BVA	20–21 May 2011	960	19%	41%	59%
TNS Sofres	20–21 May 2011	1,013	14%	44%	56%
Harris Interactive	3–5 June 2011	1,449	–	42%	58%
LH2	8–9 July 2011	957	5%	42%	58%
BVA	8–9 July 2011	782	–	42%	58%
Ifop	19–21 July 2011	1,002	–	47%	53%
Ifop	30 August – 2 September 2011	1,918	–	46%	54%
LH2	2–3 September 2011	818	–	46%	54%
LH2	30 September – 1 October 2011	975	–	43%	57%

[edit] Sarkozy–Le Pen

Le Pen – Sarkozy
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/ spoilt vote

				Nicolas Sarkozy UMP – Incumbent	Marine Le Pen FN
Opinion Way	6–7 April 2011	991	41%	63%	37%
Ifop	20–21 April 2011	917	–	73%	27%
LH2	6–7 May 2011	565	23%	74%	26%
Harris Interactive	3–5 June 2011	1,449	–	63%	37%

[edit] Le Pen–Aubry

Le Pen – Aubry
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/ spoilt vote

				Martine Aubry PS	Marine Le Pen FN
Opinion Way	6–7 April 2011	991	28%	63%	37%
Ifop	20–21 April 2011	917	–	69%	31%
LH2	6–7 May 2011	565	16%	71%	29%

[edit] Le Pen–Hollande

Le Pen – Hollande
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Abstention/ protest vote/ spoilt vote

				François Hollande PS	Marine Le Pen FN
Ifop	20–21 April 2011	917	–	72%	28%
LH2	6–7 May 2011	565	13%	76%	24%

[edit] References

^ "Francois Hollande 'beats Nicolas Sarkozy' in presidential election first round". The Daily Telegraph, 22 April 2012.
^ "France run-off candidates: Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande". BBC News, 23 April 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-24.
^ "François Hollande wins French presidential election". The Guardian, 6 May 2012.
^ [1]^{[dead link]}
^ Sondages CSA : Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle 26/02/2008^{[dead link]}
^ [2]^{[dead link]}
^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/politoscope-2mai.pdf
^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionWay19juin.pdf
^ http://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/979-1-study_file.pdf
^ [3]^{[dead link]}
^ [4]^{[dead link]}
^ "Présidentielles 2012 – Intentions de vote aux élections – Sondages en France". Sondages-en-france.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.
^ "[EXCLUSIF] Sondage: le choc DSK – Politique – Nouvelobs.com". Tempsreel.nouvelobs.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011.
^ "Ifop: 19 November 2010". ifop.com. Retrieved 19 July 2011.
^ "Sondage TNS-Sofres : DSK écraserait Sarkozy". Scribd.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011.
^ [5]^{[dead link]}
^ "Sondage: Marine Le Pen 3e derrière Sarkozy et Aubry – L'EXPRESS". Lexpress.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.
^ "DSK et Aubry battraient Sarkozy – L'EXPRESS". Lexpress.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.
^ "CSA: 17 January 2011". CSA. Retrieved 19 July 2011.
^ "Opinion Way: 21 January 2011". Liberation.fr. Retrieved 19 July 2011.
^ "CSA: 14 February 2011". CSA.fr. Retrieved 19 July 2011.
^ "Harris Interactive France – Institut d'études de marché". Harrisinteractive.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.
^ "Sondage présidentielle 2012. Sauf pour DSK, rien n’est joué – actu-match". ParisMatch.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011.
^ "Hollande wins – How centrist will the French Socialist candidate be?". New Statesman, 17 October 2011. Retrieved 29 January 2012.
^ ^a ^b "Francois Hollande celebrates French presidential win". BBC News, 7 May 2012.

[1] "Francois Hollande 'beats Nicolas Sarkozy' in presidential election first round". The Daily Telegraph, 22 April 2012.

[2] "France run-off candidates: Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande". BBC News, 23 April 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-24.

[3] "François Hollande wins French presidential election". The Guardian, 6 May 2012.

[4] [1]^{[dead link]}

[csa-fr.com-5] Sondages CSA : Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle 26/02/2008^{[dead link]}

[6] [2]^{[dead link]}

[7] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/politoscope-2mai.pdf

[8] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionWay19juin.pdf

[9] ttp://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/979-1-study_file.pdf

[ReferenceA-10] [3]^{[dead link]}

[ReferenceB-11] [4]^{[dead link]}

[12] "Présidentielles 2012 – Intentions de vote aux élections – Sondages en France". Sondages-en-france.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.

[13] "[EXCLUSIF] Sondage: le choc DSK – Politique – Nouvelobs.com". Tempsreel.nouvelobs.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011.

[14] "Ifop: 19 November 2010". ifop.com. Retrieved 19 July 2011.

[scribd.com-15] "Sondage TNS-Sofres : DSK écraserait Sarkozy". Scribd.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011.

[ReferenceC-16] [5]^{[dead link]}

[17] "Sondage: Marine Le Pen 3e derrière Sarkozy et Aubry – L'EXPRESS". Lexpress.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.

[lexpress.fr-18] "DSK et Aubry battraient Sarkozy – L'EXPRESS". Lexpress.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.

[19] "CSA: 17 January 2011". CSA. Retrieved 19 July 2011.

[20] "Opinion Way: 21 January 2011". Liberation.fr. Retrieved 19 July 2011.

[21] "CSA: 14 February 2011". CSA.fr. Retrieved 19 July 2011.

[22] "Harris Interactive France – Institut d'études de marché". Harrisinteractive.fr. Retrieved 13 July 2011.

[23] "Sondage présidentielle 2012. Sauf pour DSK, rien n’est joué – actu-match". ParisMatch.com. Retrieved 13 July 2011.

[24] "Hollande wins – How centrist will the French Socialist candidate be?". New Statesman, 17 October 2011. Retrieved 29 January 2012.

[BBCMay2012-25] "Francois Hollande celebrates French presidential win". BBC News, 7 May 2012.

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Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2012

Contents

[edit] First round

[edit] November 2007 to June 2009

[edit] October 2009 to June 2011

[edit] July 2011 to September 2011

[edit] October 2011 to 19 March 2012

[edit] 19 March 2012 to 22 April 2012

[edit] Runoff polls

[edit] Sarkozy–Hollande

[edit] Before the first round

[edit] After the first round

[edit] Sarkozy–Aubry

[edit] Sarkozy–Le Pen

[edit] Le Pen–Aubry

[edit] Le Pen–Hollande

[edit] References

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