Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2005

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Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2005 election by various organisations.

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2005 election[edit]

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary[edit]

Summary of available poll results (including electoral results) for the 2002–2005 electoral term for all political parties that have exceeded the 5.0% mixed member proportional representation (MMP) threshold. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother.

Individual polls[edit]

Poll Date Labour National NZ First ACT Green United Future Māori Destiny
2002 election result 27 July 2002 41.26 20.93 10.38 7.14 7.00 6.69 N/A[note 1]
One News Colmar Brunton[1] 1 September 2002 40 25 10 6 7 8
TV3 NFO[2] 16 September — 22 September 2002 49 19 10 5 8 4.7
NBR-HP Invent[3] 19 September — 22 September 2002 44 22 9.5 8.5 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[4] 23 September — 26 September 2002[5] 47 26 8 5 6 4
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 27 October 2002 51 25 7 5 5 5
NBR-HP Invent[7] 18 October — 20 October 2002 47 24 9.1 4.9 7.5 4.7
TV3 NFO[8] 18 November - 24 November 2002[9] 50 19 10 4.8 8 5
One News Colmar Brunton[10] 18 November 2002 49 26 8 6 5 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 15 December 2002 52 25 6 5 5 4
Herald-DigiPoll[12] 3 February 2003 49.6 22.9 7.2 5.9 5.1 3.3
TV3 NFO[13] 10 February - 16 February 2003 56 21 6 4.2 6 3.6
One News Colmar Brunton[14] 17 February 2003 53 27 5 6 6 2
One News Colmar Brunton[15] 23 March 2003 51 28 6 6 5 2.9
TV3 NFO[16] 7 April - 13 April 2003 53 26 5 4.9 6 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton[17] 13 April 2003 52 26 6 5 5 2
Herald-DigiPoll[18] 15 May - 18 May 2003 49.4 28 8 5.6 5.3 1.8
One News Colmar Brunton[19] 12 May — 15 May 2003 50 28 7 6 3 2
TV3 NFO[20] 9 June - 16 June 2003[21] 52 24 8 4.5 6 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton[22] 16 June 2003 54 28 4
13 June 2003 – Destiny New Zealand is formed.[23]
Herald-DigiPoll July 2003 48.2 27.2 9.2 4.8 5.1 3.4
One News Colmar Brunton[24] 13 July 2003 51 28 7 6 4 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll[25] 12 August - 17 August 2003 47.7 26.8 9.7 4.4 5 4.2
TV3 NFO[26] 12 August 2003 52 23 9 5 6 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton[27] 17 August 2003 47 27 8 6 5 2.6
One News Colmar Brunton[28] 15 September 2003 45 29 8 5 7 3.4
Herald-DigiPoll[29] 15 October 2003 43.3 22.3 12.3 6.2 9.2 2.7
3 News-NFO[30] 6 October 2003 46 24 10 6 8 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton[31] 14 October 2003 45 27 8 6 7 2.8
One News Colmar Brunton[32] 9 November 2003 45 31 8 4 7 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[33] 14 December 2003 45 28 11 6 4 2.1
27 January 2004 – Don Brash delivers his controversial Orewa Speech.
Herald-DigiPoll[34] 23 February 2004 37 45.5 5.6 2.3 5.3 1.4
3 News TNS[35] 5 February 2004 43 32 8 4.2 8 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton[36] 29 January - 4 February 2004[37] 38 45 6 1.3 5 1.8
3 News TNS[37] 27 February - 29 February 2004 39 42 6 2.4 6 0.9
One News Colmar Brunton[38] 22 March 2004 39 49 4 2 2.2 1.7
3 News TNS[39] 25 March - 31 March 2004 42 42 5 1.3 4.6 2.1
One News Colmar Brunton[40] 25 April 2004 37 48 5 1.6 5 1.9
One News Colmar Brunton[41] 17 May — 20 May 2004[42] 37 47 5 3 4 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll[43] 27 May - 1 June 2004 36 44 5.6 2 4.7 2.4
3 News TNS[44] 27 May - 3 June 2004[45] 43 40 5 2 4.6 2.3
One News Colmar Brunton[42] 21 June 2004 40 44 2.7 2.3 5 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[46] 5 July — 8 July 2004 39 43 5 2.7 4 2.2
7 July 2004 – The Māori Party is formed.
3 News TNS[47] 31 July 2004 44 39 5 2.6 4.7 1.8 0.9
Sunday Star-Times/BRC[47] 1 August 2004 44 39 3 3
One News Colmar Brunton[48] 9 August — 12 August 2004 44 40 4 1.6 4 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[49] 13 September 2004 42 42 5 2.5 4 1.7
Herald-DigiPoll[50] 28 September 2004 40.8 36 5 1 3.6 2.6 1.5
3 News TNS[51] 30 September - 6 October 2004 45 33 5 3.3 5.2 2.8
One News Colmar Brunton[52] 14 October 2004 44 39 5 3.1 4 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 15 November 2004 44 38 5 3.3 4 2.5
Herald-DigiPoll[54] 19 November - 27 November 2004 50.1 30.4 5.7 2.5 5.4 2.3 1.9
3 News TNS[55] 25 November - 1 December 2004 46 32 7 2.8 5.1 2.3 2.6
One News Colmar Brunton[56] 13 December 2004 47 35 5 2.8 5 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll[57] 1 February 2005 44.8 35.3 4.7 1.6 6.9 3 1.5
3 News TNS[58] 4 February 2005 46 38 5 2.1 4.7 1.4 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton[59] 14 February 2005 44 39 5 2 4 1 2
One News Colmar Brunton[60] 14 March — 17 March 2005 46 35 5 3 5 1 1
Herald-DigiPoll[61] 22 March - 30 March 2005 47.7 34.5
3 News TNS[62] 15 April 2005 45 34 8
One News Colmar Brunton[63] 17 April 2005 45 38 7 3 4 1 1
One News Colmar Brunton[64] 16 May 2005 44 37 8 2 4 1 2
3 News TNS[65] 9 June - 16 June 2005 40 36 11 1.5 6
Fairfax New Zealand-AC Nielson[66] 18 June 2005 40 38 8 2 5 2 2
One News Colmar Brunton[67] 19 June 2005 41 43 7 2 3 1 2
One News Colmar Brunton[68] 18 July 2005 39 42 7 1 6 1 2
3 News TNS[69] 21 July - 27 July 2005 39 39 7 1.6 6 1.4 2.2
Roy Morgan Research[70] 21 July — 1 August 2005 38 38 10 1.5 6 2
One News Colmar Brunton[71] 1–4 August 2005 45 41 5 2 3 1 1
Roy Morgan Research[70] 2–15 August 2005 40 36.5 8 2.5 7.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[72] 15–18 August 2005 45 37 6 2 6 1 1 1
One News Colmar Brunton[73] 22–25 August 2005 43 40 5 2 7 1 1 1
3 News TNS[74] 25 August - 30 August 2005 39 41 6 1.4 6 1.7 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton[75] 29 August – 1 September 2005 38 46 5 1 6 1 2 1
Roy Morgan Research[76] 3 September — 13 September 2005 38.5 37 6.5 3 7.5 2.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[77] 5–8 September 2005 39 41 6 3 6 2 1 1
3 News TNS[78] 8 September — 14 September 2005 40.5 38.7 6.8 0.9 6.9 3.0 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll 9 September — 14 September 2005 44.6 37.4 4.5 1.3 4.6 2.6 2.3
One News Colmar Brunton[78] 12 September — 14 September 2005 38 44 6 1.9 5 2.5 1.7
Fairfax Media–Nielsen 13 September 2005 37 43 7 1 6 3 1
2005 election result 17 September 2005 41.1 39.1 5.7 1.5 5.3 2.7 2.1 0.6
Poll Date Labour National NZ First ACT Green United Future Māori Destiny
  1. ^ The Māori Party and Destiny New Zealand were formed in 2004 and 2003, so did not contest the 2002 election

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "LABOUR DOWN, NATS UP IN LATEST POLL.". New Zealand Press Association. 1 September 2002. 
  2. ^ "Support For NZ PM's Labour Party Rose After July Election". Dow Jones International News. 25 September 2002. 
  3. ^ "GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR NATIONAL.". New Zealand Press Association. 27 September 2002. 
  4. ^ "NZ's Labour Party Picks Up Support At Expense Of United". Dow Jones International News. 30 September 2002. 
  5. ^ "Support for Labour stronger than ever.". New Zealand Herald. 29 October 2002. 
  6. ^ "Labour just can't go wrong, gaining four points to reach 51 percent support in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll.". IRN News. 27 October 2002. 
  7. ^ Hill Cone, Deborah (25 October 2002). "Voters give cold shoulder to smaller parties.". National Business Review. 
  8. ^ "The latest TV3 poll confirms a continuing decline in support for National Party leader Bill English.". Dow Jones International News. 28 November 2002. 
  9. ^ "ENGLISH TAKES POLL BATTERING AGAIN.". Dominion Post. 28 November 2002. 
  10. ^ "NZ First Party Immigration Stance Adds To Tensions - Poll". Dow Jones International News. 18 November 2002. 
  11. ^ "LABOUR, UNITED FUTURE GAIN SUPPORT.". New Zealand Press Association. 15 December 2002. 
  12. ^ "NZ Herald-Digipoll survey puts Govt on 49.6% support - National 23% - English trails Clark and Peters as preferred PM.". IRN News. 3 February 2003. 
  13. ^ "SUPPORT FOR LABOUR SURGES.". New Zealand Press Association. 17 February 2003. 
  14. ^ "National Party Posts Minor Rise In Latest NZ Poll". Dow Jones International News. 17 February 2003. 
  15. ^ "WAR CASTS SHADOW OVER ECONOMY - POLL.". New Zealand Press Association. 23 March 2003. 
  16. ^ Young, Audrey (15 April 2003). "English, Brash on level pegging, survey finds.". New Zealand Herald. 
  17. ^ "POLL BOOSTS POPULARITY OF BRASH IN PREFERRED PM STAKES.". New Zealand Press Association. 13 April 2003. 
  18. ^ "National polling its highest after turbulent few months.". New Zealand Herald. 19 May 2003. 
  19. ^ "LABOUR DOWN, NATIONAL UP IN LATEST POLL.". New Zealand Press Association. 18 May 2003. 
  20. ^ Sutherland, Richard (19 June 2003). "National loses 2 points in TV3-NFO poll causing further concerns about English's leadership - Labour has 52% support.". IRN News. 
  21. ^ "NZ Consumer Confidence Rebounded In June - TV3 NFO Poll". Dow Jones International News. 19 June 2003. 
  22. ^ Berry, Ruth (16 June 2003). "LABOUR SUPPORT 'RISING'.". The Christchurch Press. 
  23. ^ http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO0306/S00085.htm
  24. ^ "PETERS PICKS UP SUPPORT AS PREFERRED PM IN LATEST POLL.". New Zealand Press Association. 13 July 2003. 
  25. ^ Taylor, Kevin (20 August 2003). "United, NZ First up as National slides.". New Zealand Herald. 
  26. ^ "SEABED ISSUE FAILS TO GIVE ENGLISH TRACTION.". New Zealand Press Association. 12 August 2003. 
  27. ^ "SUPPORT FOR LABOUR FALLING, POLL SHOWS.". New Zealand Press Association. 17 August 2003. 
  28. ^ Wilson, Peter (15 September 2003). "GOVT'S POPULARITY DROPS AGAIN.". New Zealand Press Association. 
  29. ^ Sutherland, Richard (15 October 2003). "Herald-DigPol survey shows Labour down 4.4% to 43.3% support - National down 4.5 points on 22.3%.". IRN News. 
  30. ^ Tunnah, Helen (6 October 2003). "GOVT'S POPULARITY DROPS AGAIN.". New Zealand Herald. 
  31. ^ "GOVT STEADY, NATS DOWN IN LATEST POLL.". New Zealand Press Association. 14 October 2003. 
  32. ^ "BRASH SHOOTS UP POLLS.". New Zealand Press Association. 9 November 2003. 
  33. ^ Berry, Ruth (15 December 2003). "Williamson on good behaviour bond.". New Zealand Herald. 
  34. ^ "NZ Poll Confirms Opposition Party Overtakes Govt". Dow Jones International News. 23 February 2004. 
  35. ^ Dower, Tim (5 February 2004). "The National Party has rated 32 percent support in a 3 News/TNS poll, Labour has 43 percent, NZ First 8 - ACT 4.2.". IRN News. 
  36. ^ Jennings, Alan (14 February 2004). "Big change of fortune for National at the expense of Labour and NZ First in latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll.". IRN News. 
  37. ^ a b "NZ National Party Ahead Of Current Govt In TV3 Poll". Dow Jones International News. 4 March 2004. 
  38. ^ "NZ's National Party Extends Lead Over Govt In Latest Poll". Dow Jones International News. 22 March 2004. 
  39. ^ Small, Vernon (5 April 2004). "MAIN PARTIES NECK AND NECK.". The Christchurch Press. 
  40. ^ "New Poll Shows NZ's Brash Closing Gap On PM - Report". Dow Jones International News. 26 April 2004. 
  41. ^ "NZ National Party Maintains Lead Over Govt In Latest Poll". Dow Jones International News. 24 May 2004. 
  42. ^ a b "NZ Govt Claws Back Some Of Natl's Lead After Budget -Poll". Dow Jones International News. 21 June 2004. 
  43. ^ "Support For NZ Govt Down Despite New Spending - Poll". Dow Jones International News. 2 June 2004. 
  44. ^ Small, Vernon (7 June 2004). "LABOUR WIDENS LEAD IN POLL.". Dominion Post. 
  45. ^ "NZ Labour Party Opens Slight Lead Over National -TV3 Poll". Dow Jones International News. 8 June 2004. 
  46. ^ "SMALLER PARTIES UP BUT NATIONAL, LABOUR WELL OUT IN FRONT". New Zealand Press Association. 11 July 2004. 
  47. ^ a b "Labour opens lead over National; POLLS: The new Maori Party shows up for the first time with the equivalent of five seats in the House". 4 August 2004. 4 August 2004. 
  48. ^ "Poll Puts NZ's Labour Govt Ahead Of Natl Party -Report". Dow Jones International News. 16 August 2004. 
  49. ^ "NZ's Labour, National parties poll neck-and-neck.". Reuters. 13 September 2004. 
  50. ^ Sutherland, Richard (28 September 2004). "Herald-DigiPoll shows Labour with 40.8% support, National 36%; ACT 1%; Maori Party 1.5%; NZ First 5%; Greens 3.6%". IRN News. 
  51. ^ Small, Vernon (9 October 2004). "LABOUR BOLSTERS ITS LEAD IN POLLS". Dominion Post. 
  52. ^ "NZ voter confidence in economy steady - poll.". Reuters. 14 October 2004. 
  53. ^ "NZ voters more confident in economy - poll.". Reuters. 15 November 2004. 
  54. ^ Young, Audrey (1 December 2004). "National has slumped in popularity to 30.4 per cent, giving Labour a 20 point lead on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey". New Zealand Herald. 
  55. ^ "LABOUR ENJOYS 14 PERCENT LEAD IN LATEST OPINION POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 4 December 2004. 
  56. ^ "NZ Government Extends Lead Over Opposition -Survey". Dow Jones International News. 13 December 2004. 
  57. ^ Garton, Liz (1 February 2005). "Herald-DigiPoll shows National on 35.3% of party vote, Labour on 45.8%; personal popularity Brash 28.2%; Clark 54.9%". IRN News. 
  58. ^ "BRASH SPEECH REDUCES POLL GAP". Dominion Post. 4 February 2005. 
  59. ^ "NZ voter confidence in economy eases off high - poll.". Reuters. 14 February 2005. 
  60. ^ "LABOUR RETAINS HEALTHY LEAD IN POLLS DESPITE GROWING CONCERNS". New Zealand Press Association. 20 March 2005. 
  61. ^ "LABOUR AND CLARK BOTH INCREASE LEAD IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 1 April 2005. 
  62. ^ Watkins, Tracy (15 April 2005). "TAMIHERE TALKBACK DEBUT DELAYED". Dominion Post. 
  63. ^ "SEVEN-POINT GAP BETWEEN LABOUR AND NATIONAL, NEW POLL SHOWS". New Zealand Press Association. 17 April 2005. 
  64. ^ "NZ Govt Maintains Poll Lead; Consumer Confidence Improves". Dow Jones International News. 16 May 2005. 
  65. ^ "LABOUR'S LEAD SLIPPING IN NEW POLL". Dominion Post. 17 June 2005. 
  66. ^ Tim, Dower (18 June 2005). "Fairfax New Zealand-AC Nielson poll shows Labour has lost its once-commanding lead over National". IRN News. 
  67. ^ "NZ's Ruling Labour Stumbling In Polls 3 Mos Before Vote". Dow Jones International News. 19 June 2005. 
  68. ^ "NZ Government Slips Further Behind In Latest Opinion Poll". Dow Jones International News. 18 July 2005. 
  69. ^ "LABOUR, NATIONAL LEVEL-PEGGING IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 28 July 2005. 
  70. ^ a b "Support For NZ Labour Up 2% To 40% - Latest Morgan Poll Shows". Roy Morgan. 18 August 2005. Retrieved 12 October 2013. 
  71. ^ "LABOUR MAINTAINS LEAD IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 7 August 2005. 
  72. ^ "New Zealand Labour Party stretches poll lead to eight percent ahead of election". Associated Press. 22 August 2005. 
  73. ^ "Polls Show NZ Opposition National Party Gaining On Labour". Dow Jones International News. 28 August 2005. 
  74. ^ "POLL PUTS NATIONAL IN FRONT, TAX CUTS POLICY INFLUENCING VOTERS". New Zealand Press Association. 31 August 2005. 
  75. ^ "NZ opposition extends poll lead on governing party 13 days from election". Associated Press. 4 September 2005. 
  76. ^ "NZ National Party Swing of 16.1% Threatens Clark Labour Government". Roy Morgan. 16 September 2005. Retrieved 12 October 2013. 
  77. ^ "Polls point to cliffhanger New Zealand election". Agence France Presse. 11 September 2005. 
  78. ^ a b "One News Poll: NZ Labour Govt On 38% Support". Dow Jones International News. 15 September 2005.