Opinion polling for the United States Senate elections, 2008

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This article provides a collection of scientific, state-wide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the United States of America (U.S.) Senate elections, 2008. The National Journal/Hotline rankings are based on predictions of the likelihood of seat switching party control.

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Opinion polling[edit]

Democratic Incumbents[edit]

DelawareDelaware[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Joe Biden

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Joe Biden Republican: Christine O'Donnell Lead Margin
Survey USA October 27-October 28, 2008 66% 32%
34
Survey USA September 22-September 23, 2008 64% 32%
32
Fairleigh Dickinson September 17-September 21, 2008 69% 26%
43

IllinoisIllinois[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Dick Durbin

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Dick Durbin Republican: Steve Sauerberg Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2008 62% 31%
31
St. Louis Post Dispatch/
Research 2000
September 15-September 18, 2008 56% 35%
21
Rasmussen Reports September 17, 2008 59% 35%
24
Rasmussen Reports August 12, 2008 61% 33%
28
Southern Outreach July 12, 2008 52% 35%
17
Rasmussen Reports July 8, 2008 63% 28%
34

IowaIowa[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Tom Harkin

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Tom Harkin Republican: Christopher Reed Lead Margin
Survey USA October 28-October 29, 2008 61% 35%
26
Rasmussen Reports October 23, 2008 57% 41%
16
Rasmussen Reports September 25, 2008 54% 40%
14
Survey USA September 17-September 18, 2008 60% 37%
23
Des Moines Register/
Selzer & Co
September 8-September 10, 2008 53% 34%
19
Rasmussen Reports August 7, 2008 60% 36%
24
Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008 55% 37%
18
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2008 53% 37%
16
Research 2000 April 21-April 23, 2008 59% 20%
39

LouisianaLouisiana[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 9
Incumbent: Mary Landrieu

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Mary Landrieu Republican: John Kennedy Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008 53% 43%
10
Rasmussen Reports September 25, 2008 54% 41%
13
Rasmussen Reports August 17, 2008 56% 39%
17
Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008 51% 45%
6
Southern Media/
Opinion Research
June 26-June 28, 2008 45.8% 40.3%
5.5
Rasmussen Reports May 28, 2008 47% 44%
3
Mellman Group * May 17-May 20, 2008 49% 33%
16
Southern Media/
Opinion Research
March 26-April 9, 2008 50% 38%
12
Survey USA December 6-December 10, 2007 46% 42%
4
Zogby International[dead link] November 29, 2007 38% 45%
7

MassachusettsMassachusetts[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: John Kerry

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: John Kerry Republican: Jeff Beatty Lead Margin
Survey USA October 28, 2008 58% 34%
24
Survey USA October 14, 2008 59% 29%
30
Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2008 63% 31%
32
Rasmussen Reports September 23, 2008 65% 30%
35
Survey USA September 22-September 23, 2008 63% 25%
38
Rasmussen Reports August 5, 2008 59% 32%
27
Rasmussen Reports June 30, 2008 58% 27%
31
Rasmussen Reports May 28, 2008 63% 25%
38
Rasmussen Reports April 22, 2008 55% 30%
25
Zogby International July 8, 2007 58% 23%
25

MichiganMichigan[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Carl Levin

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Carl Levin Republican: Jack Hoogendyk Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports October 8, 2008 61% 36%
25
Strategic Vision September 22-September 24, 2008 57% 29%
28
EPIC-MRA September 14-September 17, 2008 54% 26%
28
Rasmussen Reports September 10, 2008 57% 38%
19
Public Policy Polling September 6-September 7, 2008 51% 36%
15
Strategic Vision September 5-September 7, 2008 58% 28%
20
EPIC-MRA August 18-August 21, 2008 59% 27%
32
Rasmussen Reports August 7, 2008 57% 39%
18
Public Policy Polling July 23-July 27, 2008 54% 35%
19
Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008 59% 36%
23
Public Policy Polling June 21-June 22, 2008 54% 32%
22
Rasmussen Reports June 11, 2008 55% 35%
20
Rasmussen Reports May 7, 2008 54% 37%
17

MontanaMontana[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Max Baucus

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Max Baucus Republican: Robert Kelleher Lead Margin
Public Policy Polling November 2, 2008 71% 26%
45
Rasmussen Reports September 7, 2008 64% 31%
33

New JerseyNew Jersey[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 13
Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Frank Lautenberg Republican: Dick Zimmer Libertarian: Jason Scheurer Socialist Workers: Sara Lobman Independent: Daryl Brooks Independent: J.M. Carter Independent: Jeff Boss Lead Margin
Survey USA October 30, 2008 52% 37%
15
Survey USA October 12, 2008 51% 38%
13
Rasmussen Reports October 7, 2008 51% 37%
14
Survey USA September 28, 2008 51% 38%
13
Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2008 49% 42%
7
Strategic Vision September 14-September 16, 2008 47% 40%
7
Quinnipiac University September 10-September 12, 2008 48% 39%
9
Marist College September 5-September 8, 2008 51% 40%
9
Zogby International/
Garden State Equality
*
August 7-August 11, 2008 50% 32%
18
Quinnipiac University August 4-August 10, 2008 48% 41%
7
Rasmussen Reports August 4, 2008 53% 38%
15
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates/
Club for Growth
*
July 30-July 31, 2008 35% 36% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%
1
Monmouth University/
Gannett New Jersey
July 17-July 21, 2008 45% 37%
8
Strategic Vision July 11-July 13, 2008 48% 32%
16
Rasmussen Reports July 7, 2008 49% 36%
13
Fairleigh Dickinson University/
Public Mind
June 17-June 22, 2008 45% 28%
17
Quinnipiac University June 5-June 8, 2008 47% 38%
9
Rasmussen Reports June 4, 2008 45% 44%
1

Rhode IslandRhode Island[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Jack Reed

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Jack Reed Republican: Bob Tingle Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports July 1, 2008 72% 20%
52

South DakotaSouth Dakota[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 20
Incumbent: Tim Johnson

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Tim Johnson Republican: Joel Dykstra Lead Margin
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 12-August 14, 2008 61% 34%
27
Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008 60% 38%
22
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2008 60% 34%
16
Rasmussen Reports March 4, 2008 63% 28%
35

West VirginiaWest Virginia[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Jay Rockefeller

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Jay Rockefeller Republican: Jay Wolfe Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports September 24, 2008 61% 33%
28

Republican incumbents[edit]

AlabamaAlabama[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Jeff Sessions

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Vivian Davis Figures Republican: Jeff Sessions Lead Margin
Survey USA October 28, 2008 32% 65%
33
Survey USA October 9, 2008 33% 64%
31
Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2008 30% 59%
29
SurveyUSA September 16–17, 2008 31% 66%
35
Rasmussen Reports July 31, 2008 31% 58%
27
Rasmussen Reports June 30, 2008 34% 58%
24
Rasmussen Reports May 27, 2008 29% 62%
33
Rasmussen Reports April 2, 2008 36% 57%
21
Rasmussen Reports November 14, 2007 30% 62%
32
SurveyUSA August 25–27, 2007 37% 59%
22

AlaskaAlaska[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 5
Incumbent: Ted Stevens

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Mark Begich Republican: Ted Stevens Lead Maragin
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2008 52% 44%
8
Rasmussen Reports October 6, 2008 48% 49%
1
Ivan Moore Research September 20–22, 2008 48% 46%
2
Daily Kos/Research 2000 September 15-September 17, 2008 50% 44%
6
Rasmussen Reports September 9, 2008 48% 46%
2
Moore Information * September 2–3, 2008 46% 44%
2
Ivan Moore Research August 30 - September 2, 2008 49% 46%
3
Ivan Moore Research August 9–12, 2008 56% 39%
17
Ivan Moore Research July 30–31, 2008 56% 35%
21
Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2008 50% 37%
13
Ivan Moore Research July 18–22, 2008 51% 43%
8
Rasmussen Reports July 17, 2008 52% 44%
8
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 14–16, 2008 47% 45%
2
Rasmussen Reports June 16, 2008 44% 46%
2
Rasmussen Reports May 14, 2008 47% 45%
2
Research 2000 May 12–14, 2008 48% 43%
5
Hellenthal & Associates, DSCC * May 6–10, 2008 51% 44%
7
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2008 45% 46%
1
Research 2000 December 3–6, 2007 47% 41%
6

ColoradoColorado[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 4
Incumbent: None

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Mark Udall Republican: Bob Schaffer Green: Bob Kinsey Independent: Buddy Moore American Constitution: Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell Lead Margin
Rasmussen Reports October 16, 2008 51% 44%
7
Rasmussen Reports September 23, 2008 46% 44%
2
Ciruli Associates/
Economic Development
Council of Colorado
September 19-September 23, 2008 45% 38%
7
Public Policy Polling September 20-September 21, 2008 48% 40%
8
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post
September 14–21, 2008 48% 40%
8
Harstad Strategic Research * September 7-September 9, 2008 45% 34%
11
Tarrance Group * September 2-September 3, 2008 40% 39%
1
Hill Research Consultants August 23-August 24, 2008 41% 38%
3
Suffolk University August 21-August 24, 2008 39% 31% 2% 4%
8
Rasmussen Reports August 13, 2008 50% 42%
8
Rocky Mountain News/
Public Opinion Strategies/
RBI Strategy & Research
August 11–13, 2008 44% 38% 2% 5%
6
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2008 47% 41%
6
Keith Frederick July 16–22, 2008 48% 39%
9
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post
July 14–22, 2008 44% 44% 0
Rasmussen Reports July 21, 2008 49% 46%
3
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 2008 47% 38%
9
Quinnipiac University
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post
June 17–24, 2008 48% 38%
10
Garin-Hart-Yang/DSCC * June 15–17, 2008 46% 37%
9
Rasmussen Reports June 17, 2008 49% 40%
9
Rasmussen Reports May 19, 2008 47% 41%
6
Rasmussen Reports April 16, 2008 45% 42%
3
New Leadership USA/TargetPoint * March 31-April 7, 2008 45% 45% 0
Rasmussen Reports March 17, 2008 46% 43%
3
McLaughlin & Associates/
Coalition for a Democratic Workplace
*
March 6-March 9, 2008 44% 32%
12
Rasmussen Reports February 11, 2008 43% 44%
1
Research for Change December 3-December 5, 2007 39% 37%
2
Rasmussen Reports November 28, 2007 41% 42%
1
SurveyUSA October 27-October 30, 2007 48% 41%
7
Ciruli Associates September 12-September 15, 2007 36% 35%
1
Hill Research Consultants * August 26-August 28, 2007 40% 38% 7%
2

Georgia (U.S. state)Georgia[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 14
Incumbent: Saxby Chambliss

Run-off

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Jim Martin Republican: Saxby Chambliss Lead Margin
Public Policy Polling November 30, 2008 46% 53%
7
Public Policy Polling November 23, 2008 46% 52%
6
Rasmussen Reports November 18, 2008 46% 50%
4
Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Jim Martin Republican: Saxby Chambliss Lead Margin
Public Policy Polling November 2, 2008 46% 48%
2
Survey USA November 2, 2008 44% 48%
4
Rasmussen Reports October 30, 2008 43% 48%
5
Rasmussen Reports October 22, 2008 45% 47%
2
Survey USA October 12, 2008 43% 46%
3
Rasmussen Reports October 7, 2008 44% 50%
6
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 1, 2008 44% 45%
1
Survey USA September 29, 2008 44% 46%
2
Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2008 43% 50%
7
Survey USA September 14-September 16, 2008 36% 53%
17
Strategic Vision September 7-September 9, 2008 36% 54%
16
Rasmussen Reports August 14, 2008 44% 50%
6
Mellman Group/
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
*
August 6-August 10, 2008 36% 42%
6
Rasmussen Reports July 17, 2008 40% 51%
11
Strategic Vision June 27-June 29, 2008 28% 57%
29
Rasmussen Reports June 26, 2008 39% 52%
13
Rasmussen Reports June 4, 2008 36% 52%
16
Rasmussen Reports May 6, 2008 33% 54%
21
Rasmussen Reports March 20, 2008 33% 51%
18

IdahoIdaho[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 17
Incumbent: None

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Larry LaRocco Republican: Jim Risch Independent: Rex Rammell Lead Margin
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 16-September 17, 2008 33% 56%
23
Rasmussen Reports September 9, 2008 30% 58%
28
Greg Smith & Associates August 18-August 22, 2008 30% 41% 3%
11
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28-July 30, 2008 32% 42% 5%
10
Lake Research * May 20-May 25, 2008 28% 43% 6%
15
Robinson Research * November 26-December 12, 2007 27% 46%
19
Myers Research * November 13-November 19, 2007 34% 48%
14
Survey USA September 6-September 8, 2007 36% 52%
16

KansasKansas[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 16
Incumbent: Pat Roberts

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Jim Slattery Republican: Pat Roberts
Survey USA October 28, 2008 33% 60%
Survey USA October 22, 2008 35% 57%
Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2008 36% 55%
Survey USA September 22, 2008 35% 55%
Survey USA August 18-August 20, 2008 31% 58%
Rasmussen Reports August 11, 2008 37% 56%
Rasmussen Reports July 15, 2008 33% 61%
TargetPoint Consulting, Inc. June 27-July 1, 2008 34% 54%
SurveyUSA/
Public Opinion Strategies
June 22-June 23, 2008 34% 51%
Rasmussen Reports June 11, 2008 39% 48%
Cooper & Secrest * June 5-June 8, 2008 36% 48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos June 2-June 4, 2008 38% 50%
Rasmussen Reports May 13, 2008 40% 52%

KentuckyKentucky[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 11
Incumbent: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Bruce Lunsford Republican: Mitch McConnell
Survey USA November 1, 2008 45% 53%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2008 44% 51%
Research 2000/
Lexington Herald-Leader/
WKYT-TV
October 22, 2008 43% 47%

Rasmussen Reports

October 21, 2008 43% 50%
Survey USA October 20, 2008 48% 48%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2008 42% 51%
Louisville Courier-Journal/
Mason Dixon
September 22-September 25, 2008 44% 45%
Survey USA September 21-September 22, 2008 46% 49%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 September 15-September 17, 2008 37% 50%
Voter/Consumer Research * September 7-September 9, 2008 30% 52%
Survey USA August 9-August 11, 2008 40% 52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28-July 30, 2008 38% 49%
Rasmussen Reports July 29, 2008 42% 52%
Rasmussen Reports June 25, 2008 41% 48%
Voter/Consumer Research * June 15-June 17, 2008 39% 50%
Survey USA June 13-June 16, 2008 46% 50%
Rasmussen Reports May 22, 2008 49% 44%
Voter/Consumer Research May 21-May 22, 2008 39% 50%
Research 2000/
Lexington Herald-Leader/
WKYT-TV
*
May 7-May 9, 2008 36% 48%
Voter/Consumer Research January 6-January 8, 2008 37% 52%

MaineMaine[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 12
Incumbent: Susan Collins

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Tom Allen Republican: Susan Collins
Rasmussen Reports November 1, 2008 41% 57%
Survey USA October 20, 2008 43% 54%
Rasmussen Reports October 2, 2008 43% 53%
Survey USA September 23, 2008 39% 55%
Rasmussen Reports September 17, 2008 42% 55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 8-September 10, 2008 38% 57%
Rasmussen Reports August 12, 2008 40% 55%
Rasmussen Reports July 17, 2008 43% 53%
Critical Insights June 1-June 27, 2008 40% 50%
Pan Atlantic SMS Group June 10-June 18, 2008 31% 56%
Rasmussen Reports June 16, 2008 42% 49%
Rasmussen Reports May 14, 2008 42% 52%
Rasmussen Reports April 1, 2008 38% 54%
McLaughlin & Associates/
Coalition for a Democratic Workforce
*
March 6-March 9, 2008 31% 54%
Critical Insights October 12-October 30, 2007 34% 54%
Survey USA October 26-October 29, 2007 38% 55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 15-October 17, 2007 33% 56%

MinnesotaMinnesota[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 8
Incumbent: Norm Coleman

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Al Franken Republican: Norm Coleman Independent: Dean Barkley
Survey USA November 1, 2008 39% 44% 16%
Mason Dixon/ NBC October 30, 2008 36% 43% 12%
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2008 39% 43% 14%
Rasmussen Reports October 22, 2008 41% 37% 17%
Survey USA October 18, 2008 39% 41% 18%
Rasmussen Reports October 7, 2008 43% 37% 17%
Minneapolis Star-Tribune September 30-October 2, 2008 43% 34% 18%
Survey USA September 30-October 1, 2008 33% 43% 19%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post
September 14-September 21, 2008 42% 49%
Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2008 47% 48% 3%
Big Ten September 14-September 17, 2008 43% 39%
Star Tribune/Princeton University September 10-September 12, 2008 41% 37% 13%
Survey USA September 10-September 11, 2008 41% 40% 14%
Minnesota Public Radio August 7-August 17, 2008 41% 40%
Survey USA August 13-August 14, 2008 39% 46%
Rasmussen Reports August 13, 2008 46% 49%
Rasmussen Reports July 22, 2008 49% 46%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post
July 14–22, 2008 38% 53%
Survey USA July 11-July 13, 2008 39% 52%
Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008 44% 42%
Quinnipac University
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post
June 17–24, 2008 41% 51%
Survey USA June 10-June 12, 2008 40% 52%
Rasmussen Reports June 11, 2008 45% 48%
Rasmussen Reports May 22, 2008 45% 47%
Minneapolis Star-Tribune May 12-May 15, 2008 44% 51%
Survey USA April 30-May 1, 2008 42% 52%
Rasmussen Reports April 22, 2008 43% 50%
Rasmussen Reports March 19, 2008 46% 48%
Survey USA March 12, 2008 41% 51%
McLaughlin & Associates * March 6-March 9, 2008 40% 46%
Minnesota Public Radio/
Humphrey Institute for Public Affairs
January 20-January 27, 2008 43% 40%
Minnesota Public Radio/Mason Dixon May 7-May 9, 2007 32% 54%

MississippiMississippi[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Thad Cochran

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Erik R. Fleming Republican: Thad Cochran
Rasmussen Reports June 24, 2008 32% 59%
Rasmussen Reports May 27, 2008 35% 58%

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 10
Incumbent: Roger Wicker(Special Election to Fill Trent Lott's Remaining Term)

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Ronnie Musgrove Republican: Roger Wicker
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2008 43% 54%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2008 47% 49%
Insider Advantage/Poll Position September 24, 2008 43% 48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 8-September 10, 2008 43% 48%
Rasmussen Reports August 21, 2008 43% 52%
Rasmussen Reports July 28, 2008 43% 52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 21-July 23, 2008 44% 45%
Rasmussen Reports June 24, 2008 47% 48%
Rasmussen Reports May 27, 2008 47% 46%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 19-May 21, 2008 42% 46%
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee/
Hamiliton Campaigns
*
May 15-May 18, 2008 48% 40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos December 10-December 12, 2007 39% 47%

NebraskaNebraska[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 18
Incumbent: None

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Scott Kleeb Republican: Mike Johanns
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2008 38% 52%
Rasmussen Reports July 28, 2008 34% 60%
Rasmussen Reports June 23, 2008 33% 60%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 19-May 21, 2008 31% 58%
Rasmussen Reports May 15, 2008 40% 55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos November 12-November 14, 2007 28% 59%

New HampshireNew Hampshire[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 3
Incumbent: John Sununu

Source Date Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen Republican: John Sununu
Survey USA October 30, 2008 53% 40%
Rasmussen Reports October 30, 2008 52% 44%
Rasmussen Reports October 23, 2008 52% 46%
Survey USA October 4-October 5, 2008 48% 40%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 September 25-September 30, 2008 49% 35%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 September 22-September 24, 2008 50% 41%
Suffolk University September 21-September 24, 2008 41% 40%
Rasmussen Reports September 23, 2008 45% 52%
American Research Group September 13-September 15, 2008 52% 40%
Public Opinion Strategies * September 2-September 3, 2008 46% 44%
American Research Group August 18-August 20, 2008 52% 41%
Rasmussen Reports August 19, 2008 52% 43%
Rasmussen Reports July 23, 2008 51% 45%
American Research Group July 19-July 21, 2008 58% 36%
University of New Hampshire July 11-July 20, 2008 46% 42%
Rasmussen Reports June 20, 2008 53% 39%
Rasmussen Reports May 23, 2008 50% 43%
Rasmussen Reports March 21, 2008 49% 41%
Rasmussen Reports February 13, 2008 49% 41%
University of New Hampshire January 18-January 27, 2008 54% 37%
SurveyUSA November 5, 2007 53% 42%
CNN/WMUR
University of New Hampshire
September 17-September 24, 2007 54% 38%
Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2007 48% 43%
CNN/WMUR/
University of New Hampshire
July 9-July 17, 2007 54% 38%
Research 2000 July 2007 56% 34%

New MexicoNew Mexico[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 2
Incumbent: None

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Tom Udall Republican: Steve Pearce
Survey USA October 31, 2008 56% 42%
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2008 56% 41%
Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2008 57% 37%
Survey USA October 13, 2008 58% 40%
Rasmussen Reports October 1, 2008 55% 41%
Public Policy Polling September 17-September 19, 2008 57% 37%
Survey USA September 13, 2008 56% 41%
Myers Research/Grove Insight September 10-September 12, 2008 57% 41%
Rasmussen Reports September 8, 2008 51% 44%
Rasmussen Reports August 20, 2008 52% 44%
Rasmussen Reports July 24, 2008 61% 35%
Rasmussen Reports June 18, 2008 58% 30%
Survey USA May 30-June 1, 2008 60% 35%
Rasmussen Reports May 14, 2008 53% 37%
Survey USA May 12-May 14, 2008 60% 36%
Rasmussen Reports April 8, 2008 54% 40%
New Mexico State University January 22-January 31, 2008 53% 31%
Survey USA November 16-November 19, 2007 54% 40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos November 5-November 7, 2007 54% 37%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates * October 23-October 27, 2007 50% 33%

North CarolinaNorth Carolina[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 7
Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Kay Hagan Republican: Elizabeth Dole Libertarian: Chris Cole
Survey USA November 2, 2008 50% 43%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2008 52% 46%
Survey USA October 20, 2008 46% 45% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 8, 2008 49% 44% 2%
Survey USA October 5-October 6, 2008 43% 44% 7%
Public Policy Polling September 28-September 29, 2008 46% 38% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 23, 2008 48% 45%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research
September 17-September 20, 2008 41% 43% 5%
Public Policy Polling September 17-September 19, 2008 46% 41% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2008 51% 45%
Elon University September 15-September 16, 2008 35% 35%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 8-September 10, 2008 42% 48%
Survey USA September 6–8, 2008 40% 48% 7%
Garin Hart Yang September 5-September 7, 2008 46% 48%
Democracy Corps/
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
*
August 20–26, 2008 50% 45%
Public Policy Polling August 23, 2008 42% 39% 5%
Insider Advantage August 19, 2008 40% 40%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research
August 14-August 17, 2008 41% 44% 4%
Survey USA August 9-August 11, 2008 41% 46% 7%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28-July 30, 2008 42% 50%
Public Policy Polling July 23-July 27, 2008 40% 49% 4%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research
July 14-July 16, 2008 38% 47% 2%
Rasmussen Reports July 15, 2008 43% 54%
Survey USA July 12-July 14, 2008 42% 54%
The Tarrance Group * July 7-July 9, 2008 36% 51% 6%
Public Policy Polling June 26-June 29, 2008 37% 51%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research
June 11-June 13, 2008 38% 48% 1%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2008 39% 53%
Public Policy Polling May 28-May 29, 2008 39% 47%
Anzalone Liszt Research * May 14-May 21, 2008 44% 48%
Survey USA May 17-May 19, 2008 46% 50%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research
May 14-May 17, 2008 43% 45%
Public Policy Polling May 8-May 9, 2008 43% 48%
Rasmussen Reports May 8, 2008 48% 47%
Research 2000/
Daily Kos
April 28-April 30, 2008 41% 48%
Rasmussen Reports April 10, 2008 39% 52%
Public Policy Polling February 18, 2008 33% 50%

OklahomaOklahoma[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 15
Incumbent: Jim Inhofe

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Andrew Rice Republican: Jim Inhofe
Survey USA October 28-October 29, 2008 36% 56%
Survey USA October 18-October 19, 2008 39% 51%
Survey USA September 28-September 29, 2008 37% 53%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 16-September 18, 2008 34% 56%
Rasmussen Reports September 11, 2008 39% 55%
Survey USA September 5-September 7, 2008 34% 56%
Benenson Strategy Group * August 12-August 14, 2008 41% 50%
Sooner Poll July 19-July 23, 2008 30% 52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos June 9-June 11, 2008 31% 53%
Tulsa World/KOTV/SoonerPoll December 16-December 19, 2007 19% 60%
Benenson Strategy Group * December 8-December 12, 2007 35% 49%

OregonOregon[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 6
Incumbent: Gordon Smith

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Jeff Merkley Republican: Gordon Smith
Rasmussen Reports October 30, 2008 49% 46%
Survey USA October 25-October 26, 2008 49% 42%
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall October 23-October 25, 2008 45% 40%
Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2008 47% 47%
Survey USA October 11-October 12, 2008 46% 41%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 22-September 24, 2008 45% 40%
Survey USA September 23, 2008 44% 42%
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2008 45% 46%
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall September 11-September 14, 2008 39% 42%
Benenson Strategy Group * September 7-September 9, 2008 43% 41%
Rasmussen Reports August 7, 2008 44% 50%
Survey USA August 4, 2008 37% 49%
Rasmussen Reports July 15, 2008 43% 41%
U.S. Chamber of Commerce * June 26, 2008 34% 38%
Rasmussen Reports June 11, 2008 38% 47%
Feldman Group/
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
*
May 12-May 16, 2008 42% 45%
Rasmussen Reports May 7, 2008 42% 45%
Rasmussen Reports February 13, 2007 30% 48%

South CarolinaSouth Carolina[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Lindsey Graham

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Bob Conley Republican: Lindsey Graham
Survey USA October 29, 2008 39% 58%
Survey USA October 13, 2008 40% 56%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 22–24, 2008 42% 51%
Survey USA September 22, 2008 40% 54%
Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2008 41% 50%
Public Policy Polling July 9–11, 2008 32% 54%

TennesseeTennessee[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Lamar Alexander

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Bob Tuke Republican: Lamar Alexander
Rasmussen Reports October 16, 2008 34% 62%
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2008 32% 56%
Middle Tennessee State University September 15-September 27, 2008 26% 50%
Ayers, McHenry & Associates * August 10-August 12, 2008 30% 60%
Rasmussen Reports April 3, 2008 30% 59%
Ayers, McHenry & Associates * March 5-March 9, 2008 28% 59%

TexasTexas[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 19
Incumbent: John Cornyn

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Rick Noriega Republican: John Cornyn
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008 40% 55%
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2008 43% 50%
Rasmussen Reports August 21, 2008 38% 52%
Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2008 39% 50%
University of Texas July 18-July 30, 2008 31% 44%
Rasmussen Reports June 25, 2008 35% 48%
Texas Lyceum * June 12-June 20, 2008 36% 38%
Rasmussen Reports June 2, 2008 35% 52%
Baselice & Associates * May 20–25, 2008 33% 49%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 5–7, 2008 44% 48%
Rasmussen Reports May 1, 2008 43% 47%
Research 2000 September 24–26, 2007 35% 51%
Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2007 30% 53%

VirginiaVirginia[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 1
Incumbent: None

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Mark Warner Republican: Jim Gilmore
Survey USA November 1, 2008 59% 35%
Survey USA October 26, 2008 63% 32%
Survey USA October 19, 2008 60% 36%
Rasmussen Reports October 16, 2008 61% 36%
Rasmussen Reports September 25, 2008 60% 34%
Survey USA September 19-September 21, 2008 57% 34%
Public Policy Polling September 13-September 14, 2008 57% 33%
Survey USA September 12-September 14, 2008 57% 34%
Survey USA September 5-September 7, 2008 56% 35%
Public Policy Polling August 20–22, 2008 55% 32%
SurveyUSA August 8-August 10, 2008 58% 34%
Public Policy Polling July 17–20, 2008 57% 32%
Rasmussen Reports July 16, 2008 59% 36%
Public Policy Polling June 14–16, 2008 59% 28%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2008 60% 33%
Rasmussen Reports May 8, 2008 55% 37%
Rasmussen Reports April 1, 2008 55% 39%
Rasmussen Reports February 21, 2008 57% 37%
Rasmussen Reports January 3, 2008 53% 38%
SurveyUSA November 5, 2007 57% 35%
Rasmussen Reports October 30, 2007 53% 37%
Washington Post October 4-October 8, 2007 61% 31%
Christopher Newport University September 27-October 1, 2007 51% 27%
Survey USA September 14-September 16, 2007 60% 32%
Rasmussen Reports September 6, 2007 54% 34%

WyomingWyoming[edit]

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: John Barasso(Special Election to Fill Craig Thomas' Remaining Term)

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Nick Carter Republican: John Barasso Lead Margin
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 22-September 24, 2008 34% 58%
24

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --
Incumbent: Mike Enzi

Poll Source Dates administered Democrat: Chris Rothfuss Republican: Mike Enzi Lead Margin
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 22-September 24, 2008 35% 59%
24

Other 2008 Senate Races[edit]

Incumbents in Bold

State Primary Date Democrat Republican Independent
ArkansasArkansas

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # --

May 20, 2008 Mark Pryor None Rebekeh Kennedy(Green)

Notes[edit]

  • * a poll commissioned by an organization affiliated with a specific candidate (not used in calculating results below).

Predicted Results Based on Polling and Predictions[edit]

Projected Composition of the 111th Senate: Democrats: 56(+7), Republicans: 40(-9), Too close to call: 2, Independents: 2

  • None

In Play

Maps of polling data[edit]

Democratic held seats: 24 August 2008 data.
Republican held seats: 18 September 2008 data.
Safe Democrat - >8% (12) (+4 Democrat - 53D / 45R / 2I )
Leans Democrat - >2% (1) (+5 Democrat - 54D / 44R / 2I )
Tossup - within 2% (2)
Leans Republican - >2% (2) (-7 Republican - 56D / 42R / 2I )
Safe Republican - >8% (12) (-9 Republican - 58D / 40R / 2I )
Unpolled - (6)

*Please note maps are based on a different algorithm than totals above. Click on map for details. Maps are based on an average for previous polling data, and as such may be slow to show changes in countrywide opinion. Unpolled elections are presumed safe for incumbent in +/- totals. Map and totals updated on September 18, 2008.

Election Day projection[edit]

FINAL UPDATE: 22:32, 4 November 2008 (UTC)
Current 2008 US Senatorial Polling Map.PNG

  • Data derived from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com weighted averages and statistical polling analysis, which determines what the best guess as to what will happen on Election Day is rather than what would happen if the election were held today. (Methodology)
  • Each state is colored according to which candidate is currently projected to win, and both the state's total electoral votes and the winning candidate's projected margin of victory are listed.

External links[edit]