# Orders of magnitude (probability)

This page is a progressive and labeled list of probability in orders of magnitude, with certain examples appended to some list objects.

List of orders of magnitude for probability
Factor SI prefix Value Item
10−10 2.0×10−10 probability per second of a SATA harddisk failure during an MTBF test[1]
5.25×10−10 caesium-137 atom decay each second[2]
9.9×10−10 Gaussian distribution: probability of a value being more than 6 standard deviations from the mean on a specific side[3]
10−9 nano- (n) 3.9×10−9 probability of an entry winning the jackpot in the Mega Millions multi-state lottery in the United States*[4]
10−7 1.17×10−7 death per aircraft journey[5]
2.9×10−7 Gaussian distribution: probability of a value being more than 5 standard deviations from the mean on a specific side[6]
8.0×10-7 death per person per year by lightning strike in Germany (Europe)[7]
10−6 micro- (µ) 1×10−6 life threatening adverse reaction from a measles vaccine[8]
10−5 1.6×10−5 risk that the asteroid 2013 TV135 which is 450 meter wide[9] will impact earth in 2032[10]
3.2×10−5 Gaussian distribution: probability of a value being more than 4 standard deviations from the mean on a specific side[11]
8.43×10−5 probability of a deadly vehicle accident per person in Europe each year (not including Yugoslavia)[12]
10−4 1×10−4 asteroid 99942 Apophis impact in 2029 on earth
10−3 milli- (m) 1.3×10−3 Gaussian distribution: probability of a value being more than 3 standard deviations from the mean on a specific side[13]
1.4×10−3 probability of a human birth giving triplets or higher-order multiples[14]
10−2 2.3×10−2 Gaussian distribution: probability of a value being more than 2 standard deviations from the mean on a specific side[13]
3.3×10−2 probability of a human birth giving twins[15]
10−1 deci- (d) 1.04×10−1 death per space shuttle journey[5]
1.6×10−1 Gaussian distribution: probability of a value being more than 1 standard deviation from the mean on a specific side[16]
1.7×10−1 chance of rolling a '6' on a six-sided die
5.0×10-1 chance of getting a 'head' in a coin toss

## References

1. ^ "WD VelociRaptor Drive Specification Sheet (PDF)" (PDF). 2012-04-13. Retrieved 2013-11-22. "With 1.4 million hours MTBF"
2. ^ "NIST Radionuclide Half-Life Measurements". 2011-12-09. Retrieved 2013-09-10.
3. ^ "6 sigma". Retrieved 2013-12-07. "z>6 ... 9.866 x 10^-10"
4. ^ "How to Play". Mega Millions. Retrieved 2013-11-20. "1 in 258,890,850"
5. ^ a b Informed Sources Archive Alycidon Rail web site. Retrieved 29 April 2009. The site cites the source as an October 2000 article by Roger Ford in the magazine Modern Railways and based on a DETR survey.
6. ^ "5 sigma". Retrieved 2013-12-07. "z>5 ... 2.867 x 10^-7"
7. ^ date=2010-08-12 "Annual rates of lightning fatalities by country". Ronald L. Holle, Holle Meteorology & Photography - 2008. p. 7. Retrieved 2013-09-10.
8. ^ Galindo, B. M.; Concepción, D.; Galindo, M. A.; Pérez, A.; Saiz, J. (2012). "Vaccine-related adverse events in Cuban children, 1999-2008.". MEDICC Review 14 (1): 38–43. PMID 22334111.
9. ^ "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2013 TV135 (Nov 7 arc=25 days)". archive.is: JPL. 2013-11-07. Retrieved 2013-11-08. (5.9e-09 = 1 in 169,492,000 chance)
10. ^ "No, the Earth (Almost Certainly) Won’t Get Hit by an Asteroid in 2032". Slate.com. 2013-10-18. Retrieved 2013-10-18.
11. ^ "4 sigma". Retrieved 2013-12-07. "z>4 ... 3.167 x 10^-5"
12. ^ "Epidemiology of motor vehicle collisions". Wikipedia. 2013-11-25. Retrieved 2013-11-25. 1992-2005 IRTAD/INED
13. ^ a b "Extreme Normal Probabilities". Retrieved 2013-12-07. "2.0 0.02275 ... 3.0 0.00134"
14. ^ "Multiple Births". CDC. Retrieved 2013-11-22. "Triplet or higher order birth rate: 137.0 per 100,000 live births"
15. ^ "Multiple Births". CDC. Retrieved 2013-11-22. "Twin birth rate: 33.2 per 1,000 live births"
16. ^ "Introduction to Procedures Involving Sample Means". Retrieved 2013-12-07. "15.87% of all instances fall to the left of —1 standard deviation"