Overshoot (ecology)
In ecology, overshoot occurs when a population exceeds the long term carrying capacity of its environment. The consequence of overshoot is called a crash or die-off.
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[edit] Humans
An attempt to apply this concept to human experience is Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, by William R. Catton, Jr. Also see Limits to growth: The 30-year update, by Meadows, Randers & Meadows,[1] which updates the 1974 book, The Limits to Growth. The Limits to Growth simulation showed in several scenarios how overshoot could happen based on an assumption of hard limits to resources, but did not deal with questions of substitution of limited resources with renewable resources.[citation needed]
Some believe that the Earth's population has already overshot its carrying capacity.[2]
[edit] Other Populations
The eradication of disease can trigger overshoot when a population suddenly exceeds the land's carrying capacity. An example of this occurred on the Horn of Africa when smallpox was eliminated. A region that had supported around 1 million pastoralists for centuries was suddenly expected to support 14 million people. The result was overgrazing, which led to soil erosion.[3]
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ Meadows, Donella; Jørgen Randers, & Dennis Meadows (2004). Limits to growth: The 30-year update. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing Company. pp. 337. ISBN 1931498512.
- ^ Ryerson, W. F., "Population, The Multiplier of Everything Else", in McKibben, D, The Post Carbon Reader: Managing the 21st Centery Sustainability Crisis, Watershed Media, 2010, ISBN 9 780 9709500 6 2
- ^ Debora MacKenzie (10 October 2011). "Low-key projects keep Horn of Africa famine at bay". NewScientist (Reed Business Information). http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21029-lowkey-projects-keep-horn-of-africa-famine-at-bay.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news. Retrieved 11 October 2011.
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