Peak coal

Peak coal is the point in time at which the maximum global coal production rate is reached, after which, according to the theory, the rate of production will enter to a terminal decline. Coal is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. It is a finite resource and thus considered to be a non-renewable energy source.

There are two different peaks: one measured by mass (i.e. metric tons) and another by energy output (i.e. petajoules). The energy output per mass has dropped significantly since 2000, so the energetic peak will come much sooner than the mass peak.

The estimates for global peak coal extraction vary wildly. Many coal associations suggest the peak could occur in 200 years or more, while scholarly estimates predict the peak to occur as soon as the immediate future. Research in 2009 by the University of Newcastle in Australia concluded that global coal extraction could peak sometime between the present and 2048. Global coal reserve data is generally of poor quality and is often biased towards the high side. Collective projections generally predict that global peak coal extraction may occur sometime around 2025 at 30 percent above current extraction.

Hubbert's theory

The contemporary concept of peak coal follows from M. King Hubbert's Hubbert peak theory,^{[citation needed]} which is most commonly associated with Peak oil. Hubbert's analysis showed how each oil well, region, and nation has a depletion curve. However, this question was originally raised by William Stanley Jevons in his book The Coal Question back in 1865.

Hubbert noted that United States coal extraction grew exponentially at a steady 6.6% per year from 1850 to 1910. Then the growth leveled off. He concluded that no finite resource could sustain exponential growth. At some point, the rate of extraction will have to peak and then decline until the resource is exhausted. He theorized that extraction rate plotted versus time would show a bell-shaped curve, declining as rapidly as it had risen. Hubbert used his observation of the US coal extraction to predict the behavior of peak oil.

Peak coal for individual nations

As of 2005, the top coal-extracting countries were China (44% of world extraction), United States (20%), India (8%), and Australia (7%). Each of these four largest coal-extracting countries are experiencing significant increases in coal extraction.

People's Republic of China

The People's Republic of China is the world’s largest coal extractor and has the third largest reserves after Russia and the United States. The Energy Watch Group predicts that the Chinese extraction will peak around 2015. The EWG also predicts that the recent steep rise in extraction will be followed by a steep decline after 2020. Another study puts the peak at 2027. The US Energy Information Administration projects that China coal extraction will continue to rise until 2030.

United States

• Expected total peak extraction: ~2150
• Peak coal energy output: 1998^{[citation needed]}

Total Mass Extracted

Coal extraction peaked in the early 1900s, then declined sharply during the depression years of the 1930s. Coal extraction peaked again in the 1940s, then declined during the 1950s. Then coal extraction revived, and has been on a nearly continual increasing trend since 1962, exceeding the previous peaks. Extraction in 2006 was a record 1.16 billion short tons. High-grade anthracite coal peaked in 1914; and declined from 44 million tons in 1950 to 1.6 million tons in 2007. Bituminous coal extraction has also been declining since 1990. The slack has been taken up by large increases in subbituminous coal extraction. Comprehensive analysis of historical trends in US coal extraction, reserve estimates along with a possible future outlook has been recently published scientific journals on coal geology .

In 1956, Hubbert estimated that US coal extraction would peak in about the year 2150. In 2004, Gregson Vaux used the Hubbert model to predict peak US coal extraction in 2032.

Energetic Peak

Coal extraction in the United States, currently the world's second largest extractor, has undergone multiple peaks and declines, but total coal energy output peak was reached in 1998 at 598 million tons of oil equivalents (Mtoe); by 2005 this had fallen to 576 Mtoe, or about 4% lower.

Australia

Main article: Peak coal in Australia

• Expected total peak extraction: Sometime after 2050^{[citation needed]}

Australia has substantial coal resources, mostly brown coal, it is responsible for almost 40% of global coal exports worldwide, and much of its current electricity is generated from coal-fired power stations. There are tentative plans to very slowly phase out coal electricity generation in favour of gas, although these plans are still a topic of much debate in Australian politics.

Long-term plans for coal in Australia include large-scale export of brown coal to large developing nations such as China and India at very cheap prices. Other groups such as the Australian Greens, suggest that coal be left in the ground to avoid its potential combustion either in Australia or in importer nations.

Research in 2009 by the University of Newcastle in Australia concluded that Australian coal extraction could peak sometime after 2050. While the Australian Coal Association (ACA) optimistically estimates that Australia's identified black coal resources could last more than 200 years based on rate of extraction in 2007. This does not account for brown coal stocks.. To put this in perspective, 200 years is 0.5% of the time that Australia has been inhabited; if the human habitation of Australia were scaled to fit in a 24-hour day, the most optimistic predictions state that coal will run out in the equivalent of 10 minutes' time.

New South Wales

According to calculations conducted for the Hunter Community Environment Centre in Newcastle, the Australian state of New South Wales 10,600 million tonnes of coal reserves would be exhausted by 2042, based on current industry growth and extraction rates of about 3.2 per cent a year.

United Kingdom

Coal output peaked in 1913 in Britain at 287m tons and now accounts for less than one percent of world coal extraction. 2007 extraction was around 15m tons.

Canada

According to the Earth Watch Group, Canadian coal extraction peaked in 1997.

Germany

Germany hit peak hard coal extraction in 1958 at 150 million tons. In 2005 hard coal extraction was around 25 million tons. Total coal extraction peaked in 1985 at 578 million short tons, declined sharply in the early 1990s following German reunification, and has been nearly steady since 1999. Total coal extraction in 2005 was 229 million short tons, four percent of total world extraction.

World peak coal

• 2150 M. King Hubbert

M. King Hubbert's 1956 projections from the world extraction curve placed world peak coal at 2150.

• 2025 Energy Watch Group

Coal: Resources and Future Production, published on 5 April 2007 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG) found that global coal extraction could peak in as few as 15 years. Reporting on this, Richard Heinberg also notes that the date of peak annual energetic extraction from coal will likely come earlier than the date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted as the most energy-dense types of coal have been mined most extensively.

• Institute for Energy

The Future of Coal by B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves of the Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, reached conclusions similar to those of Energy Watch Group, and stated that "coal might not be so abundant, widely available and reliable as an energy source in the future". Kavalov and Peteves did not attempt to forecast a peak in extraction.

• US Energy Information Administration projects world coal extraction to increase until 2030.

See also

• Coal phase out
• Hubbert peak theory
• Peak gas
• Peak oil

Further reading

• "Statistical Review of World Energy 2008". Beyond Petroleum. http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622. Retrieved 16 June 2008. 
• "Coal Data, Reports, Analysis". US Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html. Retrieved 16 June 2008. 
• "McCloskey's Coal Report". McCloskey Coal. http://cr.mccloskeycoal.com/. Retrieved 16 June 2008. 
• "Energy Export Databrowser". Mazama Science. http://mazamascience.com/OilExport. Retrieved 25 March 2010. 
• "World: Mining - Coal Mining - Industry Overview". MBendi. http://www.mbendi.co.za/indy/ming/coal/p0005.htm. Retrieved 16 June 2008. 
• Michael Orme (15 January 2008). "Are we heading for peak coal?". Money Week. http://www.moneyweek.com/file/40638/are-we-heading-for-peak-coal.html. Retrieved 16 June 2008. 
• David Strahan (19 January 2008). "Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff". New Scientist (2639). http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19726391.800-coal-bleak-outlook-for-the-black-stuff.html. Retrieved 25 June 2008. 
• Graham Stewart (13 September 2008). "Remember when coal was going to run out?". London: Sunday Times. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/graham_stewart/article4743968.ece. 
• Les Jones (2 January 2009). "Peak coal". A Bouquet of Weeds. http://www.lesjones.com/2009/01/02/peak-coal/.