Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014

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Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014
Pennsylvania
2010 ←
November 4, 2014
→ 2018

  Tom Corbett cropped 1.JPG TomWolfYuengling.jpg
Nominee Tom Corbett Tom Wolf
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jim Cawley Michael J. Stack III

Incumbent Governor

Tom Corbett
Republican

The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 4 to elect the Governor of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett is running for re-election to a second term.[1]

Corbett is considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be re-elected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track".[2] Politico has called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the United States[3] and The Washington Post ranks the election as the most likely for a party switch.[4]

Despite Corbett's unpopularity and speculation that he would face a primary challenge,[5] he was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Democrats nominated businessman and former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue Tom Wolf, who defeated U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz, Pennsylvania Treasurer Robert McCord and former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Kathleen McGinty in the primary election.[6]

In primary elections for Lieutenant Governor, which were held separately, incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Jim Cawley was renominated unopposed and the Democrats selected State Senator Michael J. Stack III.

Background[edit]

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years since 1950.[7] This has been referred to as "the cycle"[8][9] and it would be broken with a Democratic Party win this year. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938, while Democrats have lost 16 of the last 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House since 1860.[10] The last incumbent Governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms.[11]

Republican primary[edit]

Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot.[12]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Disqualified[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Corbett 372,279 100%
Totals 372,279 100%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf 487,452 57.89%
Democratic Allyson Schwartz 148,207 17.6%
Democratic Robert McCord 141,914 16.85%
Democratic Kathleen McGinty 64,525 7.66%
Totals 842,098 100%

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[130] Toss-up
Daily Kos Elections[131] Likely D
Governing[132] Lean D
Real Clear Politics[133] Likely D
The Rothenberg Political Report[134] Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[135] Lean D

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Tom
Wolf (D)
Other Undecided
Franklin & Marshall August 18–25, 2014 520 ± 4.3% 24% 49% 1% 25%
CBS News/New York Times July 5–24, 2014 4,150 ± ? 39% 52% 2% 7%
Franklin & Marshall June 23–29, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 25% 47% 1% 27%
Quinnipiac May 29–June 2, 2014 1,308 ± 2.7% 33% 53% 1% 13%
Public Policy Polling May 30–June 1, 2014 835 ± 3.4% 30% 55% 15%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 31% 51% 4% 14%
Quinnipiac February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 33% 52% 1% 13%
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 34% 41% 24%
Quinnipiac December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 37% 44% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 32% 44% 24%
Quinnipiac March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 39% 39% 2% 20%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 504 ± 4.4% 33% 42% 25%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 41% 29% 30%

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ http://www.tomcorbettforgovernor.com/announcement
  2. ^ "Franklin & Marshall College poll". Franklin & Marshall College. August 28, 2013. 
  3. ^ Schultheis, Emily (May 13, 2013). "Pa. Dems line up to run vs. hobbled Corbett". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 14, 2013. 
  4. ^ http://www.politicspa.com/wapo-pa-gov-1-most-likely-to-switch-parties/49415/
  5. ^ Keegan Gibson (December 5, 2012). "Exclusive: Castor Mulling Primary Challenge to Corbett". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 21, 2014. 
  6. ^ Foster, Brittany (20 May 2014). "PA-Gov: Wolf Wins Democratic Nomination". PoliticsPA. Retrieved 21 May 2014. 
  7. ^ Barone, Michael (2014). The Almanac of American Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. p. 1398. ISBN 9780226105444. 
  8. ^ Madonna, Terry. "The Eight-Year Cycle - Believe It!". Franklin & Marshall College. 
  9. ^ Baer, John M. (2012). On the Front Lines of Pennsylvania Politics. Charleston: The History Press. p. 71. ISBN 9781609497156. 
  10. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (August 26, 2013). "Pennsylvania Democrats Hope to Reverse History in 2014 Gubernatorial Race". Smart Politics. 
  11. ^ PA Constitution article IV, § 3
  12. ^ Jackson, Peter (1 May 2014). "Corbett's GOP foe Bob Guzzardi ordered off Pa. primary ballot". The Delaware County Daily Times. Retrieved 21 May 2014. 
  13. ^ Gibson, Keegan (December 10, 2013). "Conservative Activist Mounts Primary Challenge to Corbett". PoliticsPA. Retrieved December 14, 2013. 
  14. ^ Brittany Foster (May 1, 2014). "Supreme Court Strikes Guzzardi From PA-Gov Ballot". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 5, 2014. 
  15. ^ Gibson, Keegan (May 8, 2013). "Breaking: Castor Rules Out 2014 Run". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 7, 2013. 
  16. ^ Foster, Brittany (January 6, 2013). "Breaking: Rep. Gerlach Will Not Seek Reelection". PoliticsPA. Retrieved January 6, 2013. 
  17. ^ Gibson, Keegan (March 12, 2013). "Tom Smith Not Running for Governor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved March 13, 2013. 
  18. ^ Gibson, Keegan (October 7, 2013). "GOP Rumors Swirl About Top-Ticket Change". PoliticsPA. Retrieved November 13, 2013. 
  19. ^ "Gov. Tom Corbett holds campaign event to tout gas industry". WTAE.com. May 21, 2014. Retrieved May 21, 2014. 
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  44. ^ "Press Release:Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans endorses Corbett and Cawley". November 11, 2013. Retrieved January 5, 2014. 
  45. ^ "County Republicans back Corbett, local legislators". Centre Daily Times. March 20, 2014. Retrieved March 20, 2014. 
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  58. ^ Sholly, Chris (July 3, 2013). "Lebanon County's Jo Ellen Litz announces run for governor". Lebanon Daily News. Retrieved August 20, 2013. 
  59. ^ John Latimer (March 11, 2014). "Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz fails to qualify for gubernatorial ballot". Lebanon Daily News. Retrieved March 12, 2014. 
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  62. ^ "Ed Pawlowski announces run for governor". The Morning Call. September 8, 2013. Retrieved September 10, 2013. 
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  64. ^ http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gov-wagner-drops-out/56405/
  65. ^ Joseph, Cameron (December 11, 2012). "Casey will stay in Senate, is not mulling run for Pennsylvania governor". The Hill. Retrieved February 12, 2013. 
  66. ^ Gibson, Keegan (March 26, 2013). "Exclusive: Conklin Joins Dem Gov-Stakes". Politics PA. Retrieved March 27, 2013. 
  67. ^ Baer, John (December 11, 2013). "A "Western" PA Dem for Guv?". Philadelphia Daily News. Retrieved December 14, 2013. 
  68. ^ Gibson, Keegan (February 25, 2013). "Dahlkemper Rules Out Gov Bid". PoliticsPA. Retrieved February 26, 2013. 
  69. ^ a b "Eugene DePasquale: I won't run for governor in 2014". YDR.com. January 14, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2013. 
  70. ^ Warner, Bob (April 4, 2013). "Tom Knox considers another mayoral run". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved April 4, 2013. 
  71. ^ Fitzgerald, Thomas (September 6, 2012). "Pa. Dem leaders want no contested gov primary in '14". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved October 13, 2012. 
  72. ^ a b Gibson, Keegan (January 28, 2013). "Murphy Not Running for Gov". PoliticsPA. Retrieved January 29, 2013. 
  73. ^ Lavers, Michael K. (February 25, 2013). "Philadelphia mayor speaks to LGBT bloggers, journalists". Washington Blade. Retrieved May 14, 2013. 
  74. ^ Vickers, Robert J. (August 6, 2012). "Pennsylvania Democrats weigh early challenge to Gov. Tom Corbett". The Patriot-News. Retrieved October 13, 2012. 
  75. ^ Goddard, Taegan (May 14, 2013). "Sestak Declines Bid for Pennsylvania Governor". Political Wire. Retrieved May 14, 2013. 
  76. ^ Gibbons, Margaret (May 21, 2013). "Shapiro rules out bid for higher office next year". Philly Burbs. Retrieved May 25, 2013. 
  77. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Field, Nick (October 17, 2013). "McCord Touts Support From 23 PA Legislators". PoliticsPA. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  78. ^ Laughlin, Nicholas (October 17, 2013). "State Sen. Stack Passes on Guv Run, Seeks LG Instead". PoliticsPA. Retrieved October 17, 2013. 
  79. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Gibson, Keegan (October 10, 2013). "20 Kyle P. Maguire College Democrat, Democratic County Chairs Back McCord for Guv". PoliticsPA. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  80. ^ a b c Brittany Foster (November 1, 2013). "AFSCME Endorses McCord". PoliticsPA. Retrieved November 4, 2013. 
  81. ^ Nick Field (January 27, 2014). "PA-Gov: Chocolate Workers Endorse McCord". PoliticsPA. Retrieved January 28, 2014. 
  82. ^ a b c d e f g Field, Nick (October 15, 2013). "PA-Gov Endorsements: Unions, Politicians, and a Heavyweight Champ". PoliticsPA. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  83. ^ Dooling, Jr., Doug (October 3, 2013). "SEPA Healthcare Workers Back McCord". PoliticsPA. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  84. ^ a b Field, Nick (September 26, 2013). "Teamsters Union Backs McCord". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 27, 2013. 
  85. ^ McNulty, Tim (October 8, 2013). "Corrections officers for McCord". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  86. ^ Brittany Foster (February 12, 2014). "PA-Gov: In Major Development, PSEA Backs McCord". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved February 12, 2014. 
  87. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Gibson, Keegan (July 25, 2013). "National Enviro Leaders Back McGinty". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 10, 2013. 
  88. ^ a b c Sternberger, Jake (October 23, 2013). "McGinty adds State Rep. Patty Kim to list of legislative endorsements". Keystone Politics. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  89. ^ Field, Nick (August 22, 2013). "Philly Building Trades Leader Backs McGinty". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 10, 2013. 
  90. ^ Kopan, Tal (February 20, 2014). "Pennsylvania governor’s race: Al Gore backs Katie McGinty in primary". Politico. Retrieved February 20, 2014. 
  91. ^ a b Nick Field (November 1, 2013). "PA-Gov Roundup: Philly Dems Back Schwartz & More". Politics PA. Retrieved November 4, 2013. 
  92. ^ Field, Nick (September 19, 2013). "Clinton Treasury Sec Rubin Backs McGinty". PoliticsPA. Retrieved October 17, 2013. 
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  95. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p James O’Toole (March 8, 2014). "Key Western Pa. Democrats endorse Tom Wolf for governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved March 10, 2014. 
  96. ^ Deegan, Neil (August 4, 2013). "Councilman Jack Hansen's impassioned endorsement...". Twitter. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  97. ^ "From the Office of Governor Maggie Hassan: I Need Allyson to Join Me". allysonschwartz.com. June 7, 2013. Retrieved September 12, 2013. 
  98. ^ a b "chwartz Receives Endorsement Of Former Equality Pennsylvania President Adrian Shanker". allysonschwartz.com. February 12, 2015. Retrieved March 10, 2014. 
  99. ^ "Boilermakers Local 13 Backs Allyson Schwartz for Governor". allysonschwartz.com. June 3, 2013. Retrieved September 12, 2013. 
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  101. ^ "IBEW Local 98 to give Schwartz $100k contribution". Philly.com. December 11, 2013. Retrieved December 12, 2013. 
  102. ^ "Schwartz Picks up another Key Endorsement: Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals". allysonschwartz.com. June 13, 2013. Retrieved September 12, 2013. 
  103. ^ "Pennsylvania Sheet Metal Workers Endorse Allyson Schwartz for Governor". allysonschwartz.com. September 19, 2013. Retrieved September 19, 2013. 
  104. ^ McNulty, Tim (October 8, 2013). "Pgh teachers endorse Schwartz". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved October 26, 2013. 
  105. ^ "Planned Parenthood Pennsylvania PAC Endorses Allyson Schwartz for Governor". allysonschwartz.com. February 26, 2015. Retrieved March 10, 2014. 
  106. ^ Laughlin, Nicholas (September 10, 2013). "Schwartz Endorsed by UMWA". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 12, 2013. 
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  118. ^ http://lancasteronline.com/news/pennsylvania/ex-gov-says-mccord-campaign-ad-one-of-the-worst/article_8a3059fe-929d-5e61-ab1b-80f4f3818ddc.html
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  122. ^ http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Wolf-wins-animal-vote.html
  123. ^ http://www.politicspa.com/pa-young-dems-endorse-wolf-koplinski/56375/
  124. ^ https://twitter.com/PikePADems?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwolfforpa.com%2Fsections%2Fpage%2Fcontact-us&profile_id=1321432124&tw_i=459512471230107648&tw_p=embeddedtimeline&tw_w=345197600682672129
  125. ^ http://wolfforpa.com/sections/blog/daily-news-endorses-tom-wolf
  126. ^ http://www.phillytrib.com/commentary/tribune-picks-wolf-for-governor-haywood-for-state-senator.html
  127. ^ http://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2014/05/11/For-the-Democrats-Tom-Wolf-deserves-the-nomination-for-governor/stories/201405090007
  128. ^ a b "Pottstown Mercury and York Daily Record Endorse Tom Wolf". wolfforpa.com. 
  129. ^ http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/05/voters_should_pick_tom_wolf_in.html
  130. ^ http://cookpolitical.com/governor/maps
  131. ^ http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/06/1243548/-Daily-Kos-Elections-gubernatorial-race-ratings-Initial-ratings-for-2013-14?detail=hide
  132. ^ http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2014-governors-races-republicans-losing-ground.html
  133. ^ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/2014_elections_governor_map.html
  134. ^ http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor
  135. ^ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-governor/

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites