Schiff in 2013.
|Born||Peter David Schiff
March 23, 1963
New Haven, Connecticut, U.S.
|Alma mater||University of California, Berkeley|
Peter David Schiff (//; born March 23, 1963) is an American businessman, investment broker, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut.
Schiff has appeared as a guest on financial television shows and been quoted in major print publications. He is host of The Peter Schiff Show, an audio show broadcast on terrestrial and internet radio and was formerly host of an internet podcast called Wall Street Unspun now archived as podcasts. Schiff acquired significant internet fame for correctly predicting in 2005-2007 the collapse in U.S. housing prices that would occur in 2008 and the global financial crisis that would ensue. In 2010, Schiff ran in the Republican primary for the United States Senate seat in Connecticut, but lost to Linda McMahon.
Schiff is known for his bearish views on the US economy and US dollar, and his bullish views on commodities, foreign stocks and foreign currencies. Schiff also voices strong support for the Austrian School of economic thought, first introduced to him by his father.
Early life and education
Schiff was born in New Haven, Connecticut. His father is Irwin Schiff, a prominent figure in the U.S. tax protester movement, who is currently serving a 13-year sentence for tax evasion in federal prison. Peter Schiff attended Beverly Hills High School in California, and graduated from the University of California, Berkeley in 1987 with a BS in accounting and finance.
In 1996, Schiff and a partner acquired an inactive brokerage firm, renamed it Euro Pacific Capital, and began operating it from a small office in Los Angeles, relocating the firm to Darien, CT in 2005. Euro Pacific Capital Inc. is currently headquartered in Westport, Connecticut, with offices in Scottsdale, Arizona, Boca Raton, Florida, Newport Beach, California, Los Angeles and New York City. It specializes in non-U.S. markets and securities.
Economic and public policy views
In an August 2006 interview Schiff said: "The United States is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States." On December 31, 2006 in a telecast debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that "what's going to happen in 2007 is that real estate prices", which had peaked at the end of 2005, "are going to come crashing back down to Earth".
In his 2007 book Crash Proof, Schiff wrote that United States economic policies were fundamentally unsound. Since then, he has stated many times that, without a change in U.S. government economic policy, there will be hyperinflation in the U.S. and that the imbalance between the amount of goods the U.S. consumed and what it produced would eventually lead to problems for the U.S. economy. As a remedy Schiff favored increased personal savings and production which he said would stimulate economic growth. Schiff cited the U.S.'s low personal savings rate as one of the causes of its transformation from the world's largest creditor nation in the 1970s to the largest debtor nation in the year 2000. Schiff attributed the low savings rate to what he asserts are high inflation and artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.
In 2008 and 2010 appearances on Fox News and financial news network CNBC, Schiff mentioned factors such as speculation and "the absence of lending standards" as factors which had contributed to the housing crisis which began in 2007. On December 13, 2007 in an interview on the Bloomberg TV show Open Exchange, Schiff further added that he felt that the crisis would extend to the credit card lending industry, and called consumer credit "a cancer on the free-market economy." Schiff said that interest rates would rise, the Dollar would "collapse" and that all classes of Dollar-denominated assets would fall in value relative to non-US assets. He predicted "a huge crisis" and "the blow-up of credit card finance" in 2008, with the result that consumer credit card spending limits would be "slashed" by card issuers, and said that Americans would no longer be able to make purchases using their credit card lines. Referring to the housing market, Schiff went on to criticize the policy of the Bush Administration to "villify and threaten the lenders" for reckless borrowing. Following this observation, it was soon reported that "Defaults – when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt – rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October" according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings by 17 large credit card trusts examined by the Associated Press.
In a March 2009 speech Schiff said that it would be impossible for the U.S. debt to China to be repaid unless the U.S. dollar's value is substantially diluted through inflation. In September 2009 Schiff said that he foresaw gold at over $5,000 an ounce in the next couple years, and that the stock market rally which began that year was a "rally in a bear market". Later in November of that year, Schiff said that five stocks he picked for Fortune Magazine in January 2009 were "up collectively 360%."
Peter Schiff believes that minimum wage laws hurt the poorest and least skilled by pricing them out of the job market and reducing their opportunities to acquire the skills which would make them more employable. In March, 2011, he stated that the U.S. should abolish the corporate income tax and the home mortgage interest deduction on personal income tax.
In August, 2012, Schiff criticized the Ryan Budget Plan, saying it is "too little too late." Referring to Ryan's plan to save Medicare, Schiff said, "why would we want to preserve it? It's a ponzi scheme ... What we really need is real Medicare cuts today for people who are already on the system."
On October 25, 2012 Peter Schiff said that the price of gold, which was then around $1700 per ounce, would rise to $5,000 per ounce within the following two years. On April 16, 2013, Schiff told a CNBC interviewer that gold may go to $1000 an ounce but that if it does, the price will present a buying opportunity because it will subsequently rise to $2000 per ounce. In June he claimed a "vicious" gold rally was coming, the biggest in history; in August he reiterated that a "spectacular" gold rally was coming; and, in September, he claimed that, whatever the Fed did, gold would rally. In October, however, outflows from gold investment funds soared, and, in December 2013—after the Fed announced the start of its tapering of monetary stimulus—gold futures lost 2.7%, prices having dropped by almost 30% over the year to a three-year low on 19 December, where they remained on course to clock their first decline in 13 years, and were kicked into 2014 with a "drubbing". Goldman Sachs predicted gold would "grind lower" over the course of 2014.
Schiff's warnings of a coming economic collapse earned him the moniker "Dr. Doom", but later articles in Business Week and other business news journals reported that Schiff "more or less accurately" predicted the financial crisis of 2007–2010, while "nearly all [macroeconomists] failed to foresee the recession despite plenty of warning signs". Schiff's YouTube channel video "Peter Schiff was right" became popular in late 2008 and 2009. It contained a compilation of his appearances on various financial TV news programs between 2005 and 2007.
In January 2009, economic blogger and investment adviser Michael Shedlock wrote: "I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008". Later that week an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal reporting that Schiff's broker-dealer firm had "advised its clients to bet that the dollar would weaken significantly and that foreign stocks would outpace their U.S. peers"; however, the dollar later advanced against most currencies, "magnifying the losses from foreign stocks". In response to Shedlock's criticism, Schiff wrote: "to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive". In December 2012 Schiff wrote an article entitled "Mish Shedlock exposed", in which he criticized Shedlock for selective use of short-term data in the financial crisis and argued that his investment strategy had made strong returns over the long-run.
Schiff's views have been criticized several times by economist Paul Krugman. In October 2010, Krugman wrote, "I keep being told that Peter Schiff has been right about everything; so, how's that hyperinflation thing going?" In December 2011, Krugman quoted Peter Schiff's statement from December 2009: "I know inflation is going to get worse in 2010. Whether it’s going to run out of control or it’s going to take until 2011 or 2012, but I know we’re going to have a major currency crisis coming soon. It’s going to dwarf the financial crisis and it’s going to send consumer prices absolutely ballistic, as well as interest rates and unemployment." Krugman noted that inflation had instead remained low, and he concluded that Schiff's type of economic "model is all wrong" since it predicts that a tripling of the monetary base, such as had just occurred, must lead to "dire effects on the price level". In January 2012, Schiff stated that a US debt crisis and high inflation had merely been delayed by government policy. In November 2012, Krugman again criticized Schiff's predictions of high inflation and rising interest rates in America.
Schiff was an economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign. In support of Paul's economic revitalization plan, Schiff said: "We need a plan that stimulates savings and production, not more of the reckless borrowing and consumption that got us into this mess in the first place. Ron Paul's plan is the only one that amounts to a step in the right direction. If you want meaningful change—for the better that is—Ron Paul is the only candidate capable of delivering it."
In 2008, Schiff said that he supported the reduction of government economic regulation, and was concerned that President Obama's administration might increase such regulation. Schiff says that the economic crisis of the late-2000s provides an opportunity to transition from borrowing and spending, to saving and producing. He is critical of the U.S. government's efforts to "ease the pain" with economic stimulus packages and bailouts. According to Schiff, the U.S. government's approach of replacing "legitimate savings with a printing press" could result in hyperinflation.
2010 U.S. Senate campaign
In December 2008, some Connecticut citizens created a website encouraging Schiff to campaign against the incumbent Senator Christopher Dodd. Approximately 5,000 people made campaign contributions using the web site. On February 21, 2009, a moneybomb raised over $20,000 for Schiff's campaign. In a May 2009 video blog, Schiff said that he was seriously considering a run for the senate and when questioned by a Washington Post reporter, he said the chance of him entering politics was "better than 50-50". In June 2009 Schiff commissioned a poll of likely voters which indicated that he trailed Dodd in popularity by four percentage points. On July 9, 2009, Schiff launched an exploratory committee and an official campaign website.
In a campaign speech in Hamden, Connecticut on December 3, 2009, Schiff said "Unlike everybody else, I pretty much predicted everything that would happen in 2008 in specific and exact detail", and that "Somebody needs to be in Washington to prevent the next round of [government] stimulus from taking place, because that will be the end of it. That will be the toxin that completely destroys the economy."
After giving some hints on The Daily Show Schiff officially announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination on September 17, 2009, during the MSNBC Morning Joe show. By October 2009 Schiff had received more than 10,000 donations and many e-mails from around the world. Schiff's campaign received endorsements from Ron Paul and Steve Forbes.
At the May 2010 Republican convention, Linda McMahon received the most delegate votes but not enough to prevent an August primary election. U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons received more than the required 15 percent of the total votes necessary to force the primary. Schiff then collected the 400 signatures necessary to be listed on the August 2010 Republican primary ballot. McMahon won the primary. The general election was won by the Democratic Party primary winner, Richard Blumenthal.
From 2005 to 2010 Schiff hosted a weekly podcast named Wall Street Unspun. In October 2010 Schiff began hosting a new radio show named The Peter Schiff Show on internet and terrestrial radio. The show has featured guests such as Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Niall Ferguson, Dennis Kucinich, Rick Santelli, John McCain and others. The Peter Schiff Show is occasionally guest-hosted by Thomas Woods, Neeraj Chaudhary, Stefan Molyneux and Andrew Schiff.
After frequent appearances on CNBC and Fox News, Schiff's television bookings dropped by 75–85% in the first half of 2009, according to his brother and public relations director, Andrew Schiff. During a January 2014 appearance on The Daily Show Schiff remarked that the "mentally retarded" might be willing to work for $2 an hour if there was no minimum wage, for which he received widespread criticism. According to Schiff, The Daily Show took his remarks out of context by cutting and editing remarks made in the context of a four-hour interview. Intellectually disabled people are currently exempt from the minimum wage, a fact which Mr. Schiff says he mentioned during the interview but was edited out by The Daily Show.
- Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse, February 2007, ISBN 978-0-470-04360-8 1
- The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down, 2008, ISBN 978-0-470-38378-0 2
- Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse, 2nd Edition, September 2009, ISBN 978-0-470-47453-2 3
- The Little Book of Bull Moves, Updated and Expanded: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market Is Up, Down, Or Sideways, 2010, ISBN 0-470-64399-4 4
- How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes, 2010, ISBN 978-0-470-52670-5 5
- The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy—How to Save Yourself and Your Country, 2012, ISBN 978-1-250-00447-5
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- Crash Proof 2.0, pg. 21
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- Schiff, Peter (2009). Crash Proof 2.0. John Wiley & Sons. p. 316. ISBN 978-0-470-47453-2.
- Crash Proof 2.0, pg. 7
- Crash Proof 2.0, pg. 76
- Crash Proof 2.0, pg. 39
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- M. Rochan (21 December 2013). "Gold Prices To Drop Next Week As Federal Reserve QE Taper Signals US Recovery". International Business Times UK. Retrieved 21 December 2013.
- Matthew Boesler (31 December 2013). "Gold Goes Out With A Drubbing". Business Insider. Retrieved 31 December 2013.
- Javier, Luzi Ann (19 January 2014). "Hedge Funds Raise Gold Wagers as Goldman Sees Drop: Commodities". bloomberg.com. Retrieved 19 January 2014.
- Peter Schiff (February 20, 2009). Peter Schiff was right 2006–2007 – CNBC edition (Flash) (Television production (clip compilation)). Retrieved 2010-04-14.
- Peter Schiff (November 2, 2008). Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition) (Flash) (Television production (clip compilation)). Retrieved 2010-04-14.
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- Schiff, Peter (February 10, 2009). "Our Investing Plan Is Right, if Slightly Ahead of the Times". Wall Street Journal.
- The Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123327685671031439.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
|url=missing title (help).
- Paul Krugman (2010-10-04). "Math, Models, and Mystification". NYTimes.com.
- Paul Krugman (15 December 2011). "Inflation Predictions". The Conscience of a Liberal (NYTimes.com). Retrieved 21 April 2012.
- Blodget, Henry. "Peter Schiff: The Debt-And-Inflation Crisis Is Taking Longer Than I Thought, But We’re Still In Trouble". Daily Ticker. Yahoo Finance. Retrieved 26 September 2012.
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- The Reagan Counterrevolution (November 2008)
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- Peter Schiff for Connecticut Senator 2010
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- Peter Schiff, Joe Scarborough (host) (2009-09-17). Peter Schiff formally announces his candidacy for U.S. Senate (Flash) (Television production). New York City: MSNBC. Retrieved 2010-04-11.
- Peter Schiff (2009-09-17). It's official, I'm in. (Flash) (Video blog). SchiffReport. Retrieved 2009-09-20.
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- "Democrat Blumenthal wins Conn. Senate seat". The Washington Post. 2010-11-03.
- Peter Schiff Endorses Chris Shays for Senate
- Grynbaum, Michael M. (2012-08-14). "Linda E. McMahon Wins Connecticut Senate Primary". The New York Times.
- http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1900233,00.html Time Magazine, June 1, 2009
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- http://rbr.com/g-gordon-liddy-retiring-peter-schiff-replacing/ Radio America press release
|Wikimedia Commons has media related to Peter Schiff.|
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- Official website
- Peter Schiff Online, Official book site for Peter Schiff
- Peter Schiff's channel on YouTube