Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2007

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The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007.[1] The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2]

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Australian Labor Party
Marginal
Robertson (NSW) Belinda Neal ALP 50.11
Flynn (Qld) Chris Trevor ALP 50.16
Solomon (NT) Damian Hale ALP 50.19
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP 50.85
Bass (Tas) Jodie Campbell ALP 51.00
Hasluck (WA) Sharryn Jackson ALP 51.26
Bennelong (NSW) Maxine McKew ALP 51.40
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP 51.41
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP 51.44
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP 52.05
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP 52.36
Forde (Qld) Brett Raguse ALP 52.91
Dawson (Qld) James Bidgood ALP 53.21
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 53.40
Longman (Qld) Jon Sullivan ALP 53.57
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson ALP 53.90
Leichhardt (Qld) Jim Turnour ALP 54.03
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 54.42
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 54.48
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 54.48
Bonner (Qld) Kerry Rea ALP 54.53
Melbourne (Vic) Lindsay Tanner ALP 54.71 v GRN
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.75
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 55.05
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 55.62
Fairly safe
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP 56.13
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 56.59
Brisbane (Qld) Arch Bevis ALP 56.76
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP 56.78
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 56.88
Macquarie (NSW) Bob Debus ALP 57.04
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 57.15
Lowe (NSW) John Murphy ALP 57.37
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP 57.38
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 57.69
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 57.70
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 58.15
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP 58.32
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 58.53
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 58.59
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP 58.78
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP 58.85
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 58.87
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 58.93
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 58.98
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP 59.14
Safe
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP 61.08
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 61.16
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 61.63
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP 61.74
Canberra (ACT) Annette Ellis ALP 61.82
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP 62.10
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP 62.32
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP 62.71
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP 62.87
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP 63.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP 63.29
Prospect (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 63.46
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP 64.13
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP 64.74
Fraser (ACT) Bob McMullan ALP 65.07
Werriwa (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 65.24
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 65.32
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP 65.53
Denison (Tas) Duncan Kerr ALP 65.63
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP 65.91
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 65.92
Reid (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP 66.80
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 68.13
Fowler (NSW) Julia Irwin ALP 68.25
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 68.37
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 69.33
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 69.50
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 69.75
Very safe
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 70.33
Chifley (NSW) Roger Price ALP 70.66
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP 70.85
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 71.22
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP 71.46
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP 72.41
Throsby (NSW) Jennie George ALP 73.46
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 74.93
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP 75.95
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Liberal/National coalition
Marginal
McEwen (Vic) Fran Bailey LP 50.01
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LP 50.04
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LP 50.11
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LP 50.13
Herbert (Qld) Peter Lindsay LP 50.21
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LP 50.51
Macarthur (NSW) Patrick Farmer LP 50.72
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LP 50.94
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NP 51.23
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LP 51.29
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LP 51.51
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville NP 51.69
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LP 51.71
Hughes (NSW) Danna Vale LP 52.16
Kalgoorlie (WA) Barry Haase LP 52.58
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LP 52.93
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LP 53.01
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper LP 53.10
Ryan (Qld) Michael Johnson LP 53.82
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LP 53.85
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LP 54.04
Gilmore (NSW) Joanna Gash LP 54.07
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LP 54.16
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LP 54.43
Greenway (NSW) Louise Markus LP 54.50
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LP 54.79
Aston (Vic) Chris Pearce LP 55.05
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LP 55.38
Canning (WA) Don Randall LP 55.58
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LP 55.83
Gippsland (Vic) Peter McGauran NP 55.91
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LP 55.93
Fairly safe
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LP 56.02
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LP 56.05
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LP 56.57
Higgins (Vic) Peter Costello LP 57.04
Mayo (SA) Alexander Downer LP 57.06
Wannon (Vic) David Hawker LP 57.47
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LP 58.22
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LP 58.25
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss NP 58.47
Lyne (NSW) Mark Vaile NP 58.58
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LP 58.68
McPherson (Qld) Margaret May LP 58.83
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LP 58.94
Pearce (WA) Judith Moylan LP 59.07
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LP 59.17
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LP 59.19
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LP 59.45
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LP 59.50
Kooyong (Vic) Petro Georgiou LP 59.53
Safe
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LP 60.20
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LP 61.17
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LP 61.59
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NP 62.05
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LP 62.42
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NP 63.04
Bradfield (NSW) Brendan Nelson LP 63.45
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LP 63.57
Moncrieff (Qld) Steve Ciobo LP 64.01
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott NP 64.44
Riverina (NSW) Kay Hull NP 66.23
O'Connor (WA) Wilson Tuckey LP 66.55
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LP 68.26
Very safe
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NP 71.27
Independents
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter IND 66.29 v ALP
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND 74.33 v NP


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