Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2006

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2006.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Mount Waverley Maxine Morand ALP 0.3%
Gembrook Tammy Lobato ALP 0.7%
Forest Hill Kirstie Marshall ALP 0.8%
Melbourne Bronwyn Pike ALP v GRN 1.9%
Mitcham Tony Robinson ALP 2.0%
South Barwon Michael Crutchfield ALP 2.3%
Frankston Alistair Harkness ALP 3.2%
Mordialloc Janice Munt ALP 3.5%
Brunswick Carlo Carli ALP v GRN 3.6%
Prahran Tony Lupton ALP 3.6%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP v GRN 3.6%
Burwood Bob Stensholt ALP 3.7%
Ripon Joe Helper ALP 4.3%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 5.4%
Fairly safe
Bentleigh Rob Hudson ALP 6.3%
Ballarat West Karen Overington ALP 6.5%
Eltham Steve Herbert ALP 6.5%
Ballarat East Geoff Howard ALP 6.6%
Carrum Jenny Lindell ALP 6.7%
Monbulk James Merlino ALP 6.7%
Seymour Ben Hardman ALP 6.7%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 7.9%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 7.9%
Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 7.9%
Macedon Joanne Duncan ALP 8.2%
Geelong Ian Trezise ALP 8.3%
Northcote Fiona Richardson ALP v GRN 8.5%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 9.2%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 9.5%
Safe
Ivanhoe Craig Langdon ALP 10.4%
Bendigo West Bob Cameron ALP 10.6%
Narre Warren South Judith Graley ALP 10.9%
Niddrie Rob Hulls ALP 11.2%
Cranbourne Jude Perera ALP 11.3%
Essendon Judy Maddigan ALP 11.7%
Oakleigh Ann Barker ALP 12.4%
Tarneit Tim Pallas ALP 12.5%
Melton Don Nardella ALP 13.5%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 15.1%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 15.8%
Lara John Eren ALP 17.9%
Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 18.7%
Keilor George Seitz ALP 19.4%
Very safe
Yuroke Liz Beattie ALP 20.2%
Clayton Hong Lim ALP 20.3%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 20.8%
Lyndhurst Tim Holding ALP 21.5%
Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP 22.8%
Derrimut Telmo Languiller ALP 24.3%
Williamstown Wade Noonan ALP 24.3%
Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP 24.7%
Preston Robin Scott ALP 25.3%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 25.6%
Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP 31.1%
Broadmeadows John Brumby ALP 31.9%
LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 0.04%
Kilsyth David Hodgett LIB 0.4%
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 1.0%
Morwell Russell Northe NAT 2.2%
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 2.7%
Evelyn Christine Fyffe LIB 2.8%
Bayswater Heidi Victoria LIB 2.9%
South-West Coast Denis Napthine LIB 4.0%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 5.2%
Bass Ken Smith LIB 5.5%
Fairly safe
Caulfield Helen Shardey LIB 7.6%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 7.7%
Doncaster Mary Wooldridge LIB 8.1%
Bulleen Nick Kotsiras LIB 8.4%
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 8.7%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 9.0%
Nepean Martin Dixon LIB 9.4%
Kew Andrew McIntosh LIB 9.6%
Safe
Polwarth Terry Mulder LIB 10.7%
Brighton Louise Asher LIB 10.9%
Scoresby Kim Wells LIB 11.2%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 11.3%
Mornington David Morris LIB 11.9%
Hawthorn Ted Baillieu LIB 12.3%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 15.8%
Benalla Bill Sykes NAT 17.5%
Very safe
Mildura Peter Crisp NAT 20.7%
Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT 21.8%
Lowan Hugh Delahunty NAT 22.1%
Swan Hill Peter Walsh NAT 23.4%
Shepparton Jeanette Powell NAT 24.7%
Rodney Paul Weller NAT 24.8%
Independents
Gippsland East Craig Ingram IND v LIB 9.1%

References[edit]