Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2010

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The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 Victorian state election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swings usually tend to cancel each other out. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[1]

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Bentleigh Elizabeth Miller LIB 0.8%
Seymour Cindy McLeish LIB 1.2%
Carrum Donna Bauer LIB 2.0%
Mordialloc Lorraine Wreford LIB 2.1%
Frankston Geoff Shaw LIB 2.1%
Mitcham Dee Ryall LIB 2.8%
Forest Hill Neil Angus LIB 3.2%
South Barwon Andrew Katos LIB 3.9%
Prahran Clem Newton-Brown LIB 4.3%
Burwood Graham Watt LIB 5.9%
Fairly safe
Gembrook Brad Battin LIB 6.8%
Mount Waverley Michael Gidley LIB 7.4%
Mildura Peter Crisp NAT v IND 9.2%
Safe
Shepparton Jeanette Powell NAT v CA 10.2%
Kilsyth David Hodgett LIB 10.4%
Bayswater Heidi Victoria LIB 10.6%
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 10.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 11.5%
South-West Coast Denis Napthine LIB 11.9%
Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 12.0%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT v IND 12.0%
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 12.4%
Bass Ken Smith LIB 12.6%
Polwarth Terry Mulder LIB 13.3%
Evelyn Christine Fyffe LIB 13.5%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 13.8%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 13.9%
Scoresby Kim Wells LIB 14.1%
Nepean Martin Dixon LIB 14.3%
Bulleen Nick Kotsiras LIB 14.7%
Kew Andrew McIntosh LIB 15.2%
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 15.9%
Mornington David Morris LIB 16.0%
Morwell Russell Northe NAT 16.3%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 16.5%
Hawthorn Ted Baillieu LIB 16.7%
Brighton Louise Asher LIB 17.6%
Doncaster Mary Wooldridge LIB 17.6%
Murray Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 19.0%
Very safe
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 20.4%
Lowan Hugh Delahunty NAT 22.1%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 22.6%
Benalla Bill Sykes NAT 23.1%
Rodney Paul Weller NAT 26.2%
Swan Hill Peter Walsh NAT 29.3%
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Eltham Steve Herbert ALP 0.8%
Ballarat West Sharon Knight ALP 1.1%
Macedon Joanne Duncan ALP 1.3%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 1.4%
Ballarat East Geoff Howard ALP 1.5%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 1.7%
Cranbourne Jude Perera ALP 1.8%
Monbulk James Merlino ALP 1.9%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 2.0%
Geelong Ian Trezise ALP 2.1%
Essendon Justin Madden ALP 2.4%
Ripon Joe Helper ALP 2.7%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 2.9%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 3.0%
Brunswick Jane Garrett ALP v GRN 3.3%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 3.8%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 4.1%
Oakleigh Ann Barker ALP 4.8%
Fairly safe
Melbourne Bronwyn Pike ALP v GRN 6.2%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP v GRN 6.2%
Narre Warren South Judith Graley ALP 6.7%
Niddrie Rob Hulls ALP 6.9%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 7.6%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 8.5%
Safe
Keilor Natalie Hutchins ALP 10.3%
Northcote Fiona Richardson ALP v GRN 10.7%
Tarneit Tim Pallas ALP 11.1%
Williamstown Wade Noonan ALP 11.8%
Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 12.0%
Melton Don Nardella ALP 12.8%
Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 13.9%
Lyndhurst Tim Holding ALP 13.9%
Derrimut Telmo Languiller ALP 14.4%
Yuroke Liz Beattie ALP 15.3%
Clayton Hong Lim ALP 15.3%
Lara John Eren ALP 15.4%
Footscray Marsha Thomson ALP 16.2%
Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP 17.8%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 18.6%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 19.5%
Very safe
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 20.2%
Preston Robin Scott ALP 20.4%
Broadmeadows John Brumby ALP 21.0%


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References[edit]