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Quantile regression is a type of regression analysis used in statistics and econometrics. Whereas the method of least squares results in estimates that approximate the conditional mean of the response variable given certain values of the predictor variables, quantile regression aims at estimating either the conditional median or other quantiles of the response variable.
- 1 Advantages and applications
- 2 Mathematics
- 3 History
- 4 Quantiles
- 5 Example
- 6 Intuition
- 7 Sample quantile
- 8 Conditional quantile and quantile regression
- 9 Computation
- 10 Asymptotic properties
- 11 Equivariance
- 12 Implementations
- 13 References
- 14 Further reading
Advantages and applications
Quantile regression is desired if conditional quantile functions are of interest. One advantage of quantile regression, relative to the ordinary least squares regression, is that the quantile regression estimates are more robust against outliers in the response measurements. However, the main attraction of quantile regression goes beyond that. In practice we often prefer using different measures of central tendency and statistical dispersion to obtain a more comprehensive analysis of the relationship between variables.[page needed]
In ecology, quantile regression has been proposed and used as a way to discover more useful predictive relationships between variables in cases where there is no relationship or only a weak relationship between the means of such variables. The need for and success of quantile regression in ecology has been attributed to the complexity of interactions between different factors leading to data with unequal variation of one variable for different ranges of another variable.
The mathematical forms arising from quantile regression are distinct from those arising in the method of least squares. The method of least squares leads to a consideration of problems in an inner product space, involving projection onto subspaces, and thus the problem of minimizing the squared errors can be reduced to a problem in numerical linear algebra. Quantile regression does not have this structure, and instead leads to problems in linear programming that can be solved by the simplex method. The fact that the algorithms of linear programming appear more esoteric to some users may explain partially why quantile regression has not been as widely used as the method of least squares.
The idea of estimating a median regression slope, a major theorem about minimizing sum of the absolute deviances and a geometrical algorithm for constructing median regression was proposed in 1760 by Ruđer Josip Bošković, a Jesuit Catholic priest from Dubrovnik.:4 Median regression computations for larger data sets are quite tedious compared to the least squares method, for which reason it has historically generated a lack of popularity among statisticians, until the widespread use of computers in the latter part of the 20th century.
Let be a real valued random variable with cumulative distribution function . The th quantile of Y is given by
This can be shown by setting the derivative of the expected loss function to 0 and letting be the solution of
This equation reduces to
and then to
Hence is th quantile of the random variable Y.
Let be a discrete random variable that takes values 1,2,..,9 with equal probabilities. The task is to find the median of Y, and hence the value is chosen. The expected loss, L(u), is
Since is a constant, it can be taken out of the expected loss function (this is only true if ). Then, at u=3,
Suppose that u is increased by 1 unit. Then the expected loss will be changed by on changing u to 4. If, u=5, the expected loss is
and any change in u will increase the expected loss. Thus u=5 is the median. The Table below shows the expected loss (divided by ) for different values of u.
Consider and let q be an initial guess for . The expected loss evaluated at q is
In order to minimize the expected loss, we move the value of q a little bit to see whether the expect loss will rise or fall. Suppose we increase q by 1 unit. Then the change of expected loss would be
The first term of the equation is and second term of the equation is . Therefore the change of expected loss function is negative if and only if , that is if and only if q is smaller than the median. Similarly, if we reduce q by 1 unit, the change of expected loss function is negative if and only if q is larger than the median.
In order to minimize the expected loss function, we would increase (decrease) L(q) if q is smaller (larger) than the median, until q reaches the median. The idea behind the minimization is to count the number of points (weighted with the density) that are larger or smaller than q and then move q to a point where q is larger than % of the points.
The sample quantile can be obtained by solving the following minimization problem
The intuition is the same as for the population quantile.
Conditional quantile and quantile regression
Suppose the th conditional quantile function is . Given the distribution function of , can be obtained by solving
Solving the sample analog gives the estimator of .
The minimization problem can be reformulated as a linear programming problem
- , , ,
For , under some regularity conditions, is asymptotically normal:
Direct estimation of the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix is not always satisfactory. Inference for quantile regression parameters can be made with the regression rank-score tests or with the bootstrap methods.
For any and
For any and
Equivariance to reparameterization of design
Let be any nonsingular matrix and
Invariance to monotone transformations
If is a nondecreasing function on 'R, the following invariance property applies:
Let and , then . The mean regression does not have the same property since
Bayesian methods for Quantile Regression
Because the quantile regression does not normally assume a parametric likelihood for the conditional distributions of Y|X, the Bayesian methods work with a working likelihood. A convenient choice is the asymmetric Laplacian likelihood, because the mode of the resulting posterior under a flat prior is the usual quantile regression estimates. The posterior inference, however, must be interpreted with care. Yang and He (2012) showed that one can have asymptotically valid posterior inference if the working likelihood is chosen to be the empirical likelihood.
Censored Quantile Regression
If the response variable is subject to censoring, the conditional mean is not identifiable without additional distributional assumptions, but the conditional quantile is often identifiable.
Let and , then . This is the censored quantile regression model: estimated values can be obtained without making any distributional assumptions, but at the cost of computational difficulty, some of which can be avoided by using a simple three step censored quantile regression procedure as an approximation.
Statistical software packages, such as R, Eviews (ver. 6), Stata (via qreg), gretl, SAS through proc quantreg (ver. 9.2), and RATS include implementations of quantile regression. Several R packages implement quantile regression using different methods: quantreg package by Roger Koenker, gbm, and quantregForest.
- Koenker, Roger (2005). Quantile Regression. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-60827-9.
- Cade, Brian S.; Noon, Barry R. (2003). "A gentle introduction to quantile regression for ecologists". Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1 (8): 412–420.
- Wei, Y.; Pere, A.; Koenker, R.; He, X. (2006). "Quantile Regression Methods for Reference Growth Charts". Statistics in Medicine 25 (8): 1369–1382. doi:10.1002/sim.2271.
- Wei, Y.; He, X. (2006). "Conditional Growth Charts (with discussions)". Annals of Statistics 34 (5): 2069–2097 and 2126–2131. doi:10.1214/009053606000000623.
- Koenker, Roger; Hallock, Kevin F. (2001). "Quantile Regression". Journal of Economic Perspectives 15 (4): 143–156.
- Stigler, S. (1984). "Boscovich, Simpson and a 1760 manuscript note on fitting a linear relation". Biometrika 71 (3): 615–620. doi:10.1093/biomet/71.3.615.
- Kocherginsky, M.; He, X.; Mu, Y. (2005). "Practical Confidence Intervals for Regression Quantiles". Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 14 (1): 41–55. doi:10.1198/106186005X27563.
- For recent work on censored quantile regression, see:
- Portnoy, S. L. (2003). "Censored Regression Quantiles". Journal of the American Statistical Association 98 (464): 1001–1012. doi:10.1198/016214503000000954.
- Wang, H.; Wang, L. (2009). "Locally Weighted Censored Quantile Regression". Journal of the American Statistical Association 104 (487): 1117–1128. doi:10.1198/jasa.2009.tm08230.
- Powell, James L. (1986). "Censored Regression Quantiles". Journal of Econometrics 32 (1): 143–155. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(86)90016-3.
- Chernozhukov, Victor; Hong, Han (2002). "Three-Step Censored Quantile Regression and Extramarital Affairs". J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 97 (459): 872–882. doi:10.1198/016214502388618663.
11. Yang Y. and He, X. (2010) Bayesian empirical likelihood for quantile regression. Annals of Statistics, Volume 40, no. 2, 1102-1131.
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