Quantity theory of money

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In monetary economics, the quantity theory of money states that money supply has a direct, proportional relationship with the price level. While mainstream economists agree that the quantity theory holds true in the long run, there is still disagreement about its applicability in the short run. Critics of the theory argue that money velocity is not stable and, in the short-run, prices are sticky, so the direct relationship between money supply and price level does not hold.

Alternative theories include the real bills doctrine and the more recent fiscal theory of the price level.

Origins and development of the quantity theory[edit]

The quantity theory descends from Copernicus,[1][2] followers of the School of Salamanca, Jean Bodin,[3] and various others who noted the increase in prices following the import of gold and silver, used in the coinage of money, from the New World. The “equation of exchange” relating the supply of money to the value of money transactions was stated by John Stuart Mill[4] who expanded on the ideas of David Hume.[5] The quantity theory was developed by Simon Newcomb,[6] Alfred de Foville,[7] Irving Fisher,[8] and Ludwig von Mises[9] in the latter 19th and early 20th century.

Karl Marx modified it by arguing that the Labor Theory of Value requires that prices, under equilibrium conditions, are determined by socially necessary labor time needed to produce the commodity and that quantity of money was a function of the quantity of commodities, the prices of commodities, and the velocity.[10] Marx did not reject the basic concept of the Quantity Theory of Money but rejected the classical notion based on precious metals.

John Maynard Keynes, like Marx, accepted the theory in general and wrote...

"This Theory is fundamental. Its correspondence with fact is not open to question."

Also like Marx he believed that the theory was misrepresented. Where Marx argues that the amount of money in circulation is determined by the quantity of goods times the prices of goods Keynes argued the amount of money was determined by the purchasing power or aggregate demand. He wrote

"Thus the number of notes which the public ordinarily have on hand is determined by the purchasing power which it suits them to hold or to carry about, and by nothing else."

In the Tract on Monetary Reform (1924),[11] Keynes developed his own quantity equation: n = p(k + rk'),where n is the number of "currency notes or other forms of cash in circulation with the public", p is "the index number of the cost of living", and r is "the proportion of the bank's potential liabilities (k') held in the form of cash." Keynes also assumes "...the public,(k') including the business world, finds it convenient to keep the equivalent of k consumption in cash and of a further available k' at their banks against cheques..." So long as k, k', and r do not change, changes in n cause proportional changes in p.[12] Keynes however notes...

"The error often made by careless adherents of the Quantity Theory, which may partly explain why it is not universally accepted is as follows. The Theory has often been expounded on the further assumption that a mere change in the quantity of the currency cannot affect k, r, and k',--that is to say, in mathematical parlance, that n is an independent variable in relation to these quantities. It would follow from this that an arbitrary doubling of n, since this in itself is assumed not to affect k, r, and k', must have the effect of raising p to double what it would have been otherwise. The Quantity Theory is often stated in this, or a similar, form.

Now "in the long run" this is probably true. If, after the American Civil War, that American dollar had been stabilized and defined by law at 10 per cent below its present value, it would be safe to assume that n and p would now be just 10 per cent greater than they actually are and that the present values of k, r, and k' would be entirely unaffected. But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean will be flat again.

In actual experience, a change in n is liable to have a reaction both on k and k' and on r. It will be enough to give a few typical instances. Before the war (and indeed since) there was a considerable element of what was conventional and arbitrary in the reserve policy of the banks, but especially in the policy of the State Banks towards their gold reserves. These reserves were kept for show rather than for use, and their amount was not the result of close reasoning. There was a decided tendency on the part of these banks between 1900 and 1914 to bottle up gold when it flowed towards them and to part with it reluctantly when the tide was flowing the other way. Consequently, when gold became relatively abundant they tended to hoard what came their way and to raise the proportion of the reserves, with the result that the increased output of South African gold was absorbed with less effect on the price level than would have been the case if an increase of n had been totally without reaction on the value of r.

...Thus in these and other ways the terms of our equation tend in their movements to favor the stability of p, and there is a certain friction which prevents a moderate change in v from exercising its full proportionate effect on p. On the other hand, a large change in n, which rubs away the initial frictions, and especially a change in n due to causes which set up a general expectation of a further change in the same direction, may produce a more than proportionate effect on p".

Keynes thus accepts the Quantity Theory as accurate over the long-term but not over the short term. Keynes remarks that contrary to contemporaneous thinking, velocity and output were not stable but highly variable and as such, the quantity of money was of little importance in driving prices.[13] Friedman notes the similarities between his views and those of Keynes when he wrote...

"A counter-revolution, whether in politics or in science, never restores the initial situation. It always produces a situation that has some similarity to the initial one but is also strongly influenced by the intervening revolution. That is certainly true of monetarism which has benefited much from Keynes’s work. Indeed I may say, as have so many others since there is no way of contradicting it, that if Keynes were alive today he would no doubt be at the forefront of the counter-revolution."

Friedman notes that Keynes shifted the focus away from the quantity of money (Fisher's M and Keynes' n) and put the focus on price and output. Friedman writes...

"What matters, said Keynes, is not the quantity of money. What matters is the part of total spending which is independent of current income, what has come to be called autonomous spending and to be identified in practice largely with investment by business and expenditures by government."

The Monetarist counter-position was that contrary to Keynes, velocity was not a passive function of the quantity of money but it can be an independent variable. Friedman wrote:

"Perhaps the simplest way for me to suggest why this was relevant is to recall that an essential element of the Keynesian doctrine was the passivity of velocity. If money rose, velocity would decline. Empirically, however, it turns out that the movements of velocity tend to reinforce those of money instead of to offset them. When the quantity of money declined by a third from 1929 to 1933 in the United States, velocity declined also. When the quantity of money rises rapidly in almost any country, velocity also rises rapidly. Far from velocity offsetting the movements of the quantity of money, it reinforces them."

Thus while Marx, Keynes, and Friedman all accepted the Quantity Theory, they each placed different emphasis as to which variable was the driver in changing prices. Marx emphasized production, Keynes income and demand, and Friedman the quantity of money.

Academic discussion remains over the degree to which different figures developed the theory.[14] For instance, Bieda argues that Copernicus's observation

Money can lose its value through excessive abundance, if so much silver is coined as to heighten people's demand for silver bullion. For in this way, the coinage's estimation vanishes when it cannot buy as much silver as the money itself contains […]. The solution is to mint no more coinage until it recovers its par value.[14]

amounts to a statement of the theory,[15] while other economic historians date the discovery later, to figures such as Jean Bodin, David Hume, and John Stuart Mill.[14][16]

Equation of exchange[edit]

In its modern form, the quantity theory builds upon the following definitional relationship.

M\cdot V_T =\sum_{i} (p_i\cdot q_i)=\mathbf{p}^\mathrm{T}\mathbf{q}

where

M\, is the total amount of money in circulation on average in an economy during the period, say a year.
V_T\, is the transactions velocity of money, that is the average frequency across all transactions with which a unit of money is spent. This reflects availability of financial institutions, economic variables, and choices made as to how fast people turn over their money.
p_i\, and q_i\, are the price and quantity of the i-th transaction.
\mathbf{p} is a column vector of the p_i\,, and the superscript T is the transpose operator.
\mathbf{q} is a column vector of the q_i\,.

Mainstream economics accepts a simplification, the equation of exchange:

M\cdot V_T = P_T\cdot T

where

P_T is the price level associated with transactions for the economy during the period
T is an index of the real value of aggregate transactions.

The previous equation presents the difficulty that the associated data are not available for all transactions. With the development of national income and product accounts, emphasis shifted to national-income or final-product transactions, rather than gross transactions. Economists may therefore work with the form

M \cdot V = P \cdot Q

where

V is the velocity of money in final expenditures.
Q is an index of the real value of final expenditures.

As an example, M might represent currency plus deposits in checking and savings accounts held by the public, Q real output (which equals real expenditure in macroeconomic equilibrium) with P the corresponding price level, and P\cdot Q the nominal (money) value of output. In one empirical formulation, velocity was taken to be “the ratio of net national product in current prices to the money stock”.[17]

Thus far, the theory is not particularly controversial, as the equation of exchange is an identity. A theory requires that assumptions be made about the causal relationships among the four variables in this one equation. There are debates about the extent to which each of these variables is dependent upon the others. Without further restrictions, the equation does not require that a change in the money supply would change the value of any or all of P, Q, or P\cdot Q. For example, a 10% increase in M could be accompanied by a 10% decrease in V, leaving P\cdot Q unchanged. The quantity theory postulates that the primary causal effect is an effect of M on P.

Cambridge approach[edit]

Economists Alfred Marshall, A.C. Pigou, and John Maynard Keynes (before he developed his own, eponymous school of thought) associated with Cambridge University, took a slightly different approach to the quantity theory, focusing on money demand instead of money supply. They argued that a certain portion of the money supply will not be used for transactions; instead, it will be held for the convenience and security of having cash on hand. This portion of cash is commonly represented as k, a portion of nominal income (P \cdot Y). The Cambridge economists also thought wealth would play a role, but wealth is often omitted for simplicity. The Cambridge equation is thus:

M^{\textit{d}}=\textit{k} \cdot P\cdot Y

Assuming that the economy is at equilibrium (M^{\textit{d}} = M), Y is exogenous, and k is fixed in the short run, the Cambridge equation is equivalent to the equation of exchange with velocity equal to the inverse of k:

M\cdot\frac{1}{k} = P\cdot Y

The Cambridge version of the quantity theory led to both Keynes's attack on the quantity theory and the Monetarist revival of the theory.[18]

Quantity theory and evidence[edit]

As restated by Milton Friedman, the quantity theory emphasizes the following relationship of the nominal value of expenditures PQ and the price level P to the quantity of money M :

(1) PQ={f}(\overset{+}M)
(2) P={g}(\overset{+}M)

The plus signs indicate that a change in the money supply is hypothesized to change nominal expenditures and the price level in the same direction (for other variables held constant).

Friedman described the empirical regularity of substantial changes in the quantity of money and in the level of prices as perhaps the most-evidenced economic phenomenon on record.[19] Empirical studies have found relations consistent with the models above and with causation running from money to prices.[citation needed] The short-run relation of a change in the money supply in the past has been relatively more associated with a change in real output Q than the price level P in (1) but with much variation in the precision, timing, and size of the relation. For the long-run, there has been stronger support for (1) and (2) and no systematic association of Q and M.[20]

Principles[edit]

The theory above is based on the following hypotheses:

  1. The source of inflation is fundamentally derived from the growth rate of the money supply.
  2. The supply of money is exogenous.
  3. The demand for money, as reflected in its velocity, is a stable function of nominal income, interest rates, and so forth.
  4. The mechanism for injecting money into the economy is not that important in the long run.
  5. The real interest rate is determined by non-monetary factors: (productivity of capital, time preference).

Decline of money-supply targeting[edit]

An application of the quantity-theory approach aimed at removing monetary policy as a source of macroeconomic instability was to target a constant, low growth rate of the money supply.[21] Still, practical identification of the relevant money supply, including measurement, was always somewhat controversial and difficult. As financial intermediation grew in complexity and sophistication in the 1980s and 1990s, it became more so. As a result, some central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, which had targeted the money supply, reverted to targeting interest rates. But monetary aggregates remain a leading economic indicator.[22] with "some evidence that the linkages between money and economic activity are robust even at relatively short-run frequencies."[23]

Criticisms[edit]

John Maynard Keynes criticized the quantity theory of money in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Keynes had originally been a proponent of the theory, but he presented an alternative in the General Theory. Keynes argued that price level was not strictly determined by money supply. Changes in the money supply could have effects on real variables like output.[24]

Ludwig von Mises agreed that there was a core of truth in the Quantity Theory, but criticized its focus on the supply of money without adequately explaining the demand for money. He said the theory "fails to explain the mechanism of variations in the value of money".[25]

See also[edit]

Alternative theories[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Volckart, Oliver (1997). "Early beginnings of the quantity theory of money and their context in Polish and Prussian monetary policies, c. 1520–1550". Economic History Review (Oxford, UK: Blackwell) 50 (3): 430–449. ISSN 0013-0117. JSTOR 2599810. Retrieved 14 Jul 2013. 
  2. ^ Nicolaus Copernicus (1517), memorandum on monetary policy.
  3. ^ Jean Bodin, Responses aux paradoxes du sieur de Malestroict (1568).
  4. ^ John Stuart Mill (1848), Principles of Political Economy.
  5. ^ David Hume (1748), “Of Interest,” "Of Interest" in Essays Moral and Political.
  6. ^ Simon Newcomb (1885), Principles of Political Economy.
  7. ^ Alfred de Foville (1907), La Monnaie.
  8. ^ Irving Fisher (1911), The Purchasing Power of Money,
  9. ^ von Mises, Ludwig Heinrich; Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufsmittel [The Theory of Money and Credit]
  10. ^ Capital Vol I, Chapter 3, B. The Currency of Money
  11. ^ Tract on Monetary Reform, London, United Kingdom: Macmillan, 1924
  12. ^ "Keynes' Theory of Money and His Attack on the Classical Model", L. E. Johnson, R. Ley, & T. Cate (International Advances in Economic Research, November 2001) [1]
  13. ^ “The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory”, Milton Friedman (IEA Occasional Paper, no. 33 Institute of Economic Affairs. First published by the Institute of Economic Affairs, London, 1970.) [2]
  14. ^ a b c Volckart, Oliver (1997), "Early beginnings of the quantity theory of money and their context in Polish and Prussian monetary policies, c. 1520-1550", The Economic History Review 50 (3): 430–449, doi:10.1111/1468-0289.00063 
  15. ^ Bieda, K. (1973), "Copernicus as an economist", Economic Record 49: 89–103, doi:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1973.tb02270.x 
  16. ^ Wennerlind, Carl (2s the real bills doctrine, which says that the issue of money does not raise prices, as long as the new money is issued in exchange for assets of sufficient005), "David Hume's monetary theory revisited", Journal of Political Economy 113 (1): 233–237 
  17. ^ Milton Friedman, and Anna J. Schwartz, (1965), The Great Contraction 1929–1933, Princeton: Princeton University Press, ISBN 0-691-00350-5 
  18. ^ Froyen, Richard T. Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies. 3rd Edition. Macmillan Publishing Company: New York, 1990. p. 70-71.
  19. ^ Milton Friedman (1987), “quantity theory of money”, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, v. 4, p. 15.
  20. ^ Summarized in Friedman (1987), “quantity theory of money”, pp. 15-17.
  21. ^ Friedman (1987), “quantity theory of money”, p. 19.
  22. ^ NA (2005), How Does the Fed Determine Interest Rates to Control the Money Supply?”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. February,[3]
  23. ^ R.W. Hafer and David C. Wheelock (2001), “The Rise and Fall of a Policy Rule: Monetarism at the St. Louis Fed, 1968-1986”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, January/February, p. 19.
  24. ^ Minsky, Hyman P. John Maynard Keynes, McGraw-Hill. 2008. p.2.
  25. ^ Ludwig von Mises (1912), “The Theory of Money and Credit (Chapter 8, Sec 6)”.

Further reading[edit]

  • Friedman, Milton (1987 [2008]). “quantity theory of money”, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, v. 4, pp. 3–20. Abstract. Arrow-page searchable preview at John Eatwell et al.(1989), Money: The New Palgrave, pp. 1–40.
  • Laidler, David E.W. (1991). The Golden Age of the Quantity Theory: The Development of Neoclassical Monetary Economics, 1870-1914. Princeton UP. Description and review.
  • Mises, Ludwig Heinrich Edler von; Human Action: A Treatise on Economics (1949), Ch. XVII “Indirect Exchange”, §4. “The Determination of the Purchasing Power of Money”.

External links[edit]