Queensland state election, 2006

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Queensland state election, 2006
Queensland
2004 ←
9 September 2006 (2006-09-09) → 2009

All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
  First party Second party
  Peter Beattie, BYCC, August 2013 (cropped).jpg LawSpr.jpg
Leader Peter Beattie Lawrence Springborg
Party Labor National/Liberal coalition
Leader since 20 February 1996 (1996-02-20) 4 February 2003
Leader's seat Brisbane Central Southern Downs
Last election 63 seats 20 seats
Seats won 59 seats 25 seats
Seat change Decrease4 Increase5
Percentage 46.92% 37.92%
Swing Decrease0.09 Increase2.46

Premier before election

Peter Beattie
Labor

Elected Premier

Peter Beattie
Labor

An election was held in the Australian state of Queensland on 9 September 2006 to elect the 89 members of the state's Legislative Assembly, after being announced by Premier Peter Beattie on 15 August 2006.

The election saw the incumbent Labor government led by Premier Peter Beattie defeat the National-Liberal Coalition led by Lawrence Springborg and Bruce Flegg respectively, and gain a fourth consecutive term in office. Beattie thus became the first Labor Premier of Queensland to win four consecutive elections since William Forgan Smith did so in the 1930s. Had Beattie served out his fourth term, he would have become the second-longest serving Queensland Premier, after Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen. After the election, Springborg resigned as Opposition Leader, being replaced by Jeff Seeney,

Key dates[edit]

Date Event
15 August 2006 Writs were issued by the Governor to proceed with an election[1]
19 August 2006 Close of electoral rolls
22 August 2006 Close of nominations
9 September 2006 Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
13 September 2006 Beattie Ministry reconstituted
22 September 2006 Writ returned and results formally declared
10 October 2006 52nd Parliament convened

Results[edit]

The election result was disappointing for the Coalition. It failed to make significant gains from Labor, despite the fact that the Government had been in office for eight years and had been mired in a series of scandals in its third term. It also failed to make headway against the Independents which still held many safe rural conservative seats, winning back only Gympie. Recent instability in the Coalition, combined with a poor media performance by inexperienced Liberal leader Dr Bruce Flegg was seen as being responsible for the result. In addition, Premier Peter Beattie remained personally popular. With Labor’s huge majority largely intact, it was seen as being unlikely that the Coalition would be able to win the next election.

Queensland state election, 9 September 2006[2]
Legislative Assembly
<< 20042009 >>

Enrolled voters 2,484,479
Votes cast 2,247,728 Turnout 90.47 –0.97
Informal votes 43,657 Informal 2.08 +0.09
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes  % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,032,617 46.92 –0.09 59 – 4
  Liberal 442,453 20.10 +1.60 8 + 3
  National 392,124 17.82 +0.86 17 + 2
  Greens 175,798 7.99 +1.23 0 ± 0
  Family First 41,659 1.89 +1.89 0 ± 0
  One Nation 13,207 0.60 –4.28 1 ± 0
  Independent 103,022 4.68 –1.15 4 - 1
Total 2,200,880     89  

The two-party preferred vote, excluding votes which were exhausted in the distribution of preferences under the Queensland optional preferential vote, was 55.0% for Labor and 45.0% for the National/Liberal Coalition.

Mackerras pendulum[edit]

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of more than 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LABOR SEATS (59)[3]
Marginal
Cleveland Phil Weightman ALP 0.5%
Chatsworth Chris Bombolas ALP 0.8%
Hervey Bay Andrew McNamara ALP 1.8%
Indooroopilly Ronan Lee ALP 2.4%
Mudgeeraba Dianne Reilly ALP 2.9%
Gaven Phil Gray ALP 3.1%
Whitsunday Jan Jarratt ALP 4.4%
Aspley Bonny Barry ALP 4.6%
Barron River Steve Wettenhall ALP 5.1%
Broadwater Peta-Kaye Croft ALP 5.2%
Springwood Barbara Stone ALP 5.2%
Pumicestone Carryn Sullivan ALP 5.4%
Redcliffe Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 5.5%
Fairly safe
Redlands John English ALP 6.9%
Keppel Paul Hoolihan ALP 7.2%
Glass House Carolyn Male ALP 7.7%
Mansfield Phil Reeves ALP 7.7%
Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP 8.1%
Cairns Desley Boyle ALP 8.1%
Burleigh Christine Smith ALP 8.3%
Southport Peter Lawlor ALP 9.1%
Townsville Mike Reynolds ALP 9.1%
Mulgrave Warren Pitt ALP 9.9%
Safe
Greenslopes Gary Fenlon ALP 10.1%
Everton Rod Welford ALP 10.2%
Mount Ommaney Julie Attwood ALP 10.2%
Kallangur Ken Hayward ALP 10.3%
Toowoomba North Kerry Shine ALP 10.4%
Mount Coot-tha Andrew Fraser ALP 10.5%
Mundingburra Lindy Nelson-Carr ALP 10.5%
Murrumba Dean Wells ALP 11.6%
Ferny Grove Geoff Wilson ALP 12.1%
Mount Isa Betty Kiernan ALP 12.3%
Kurwongbah Linda Lavarch ALP 12.4%
Mount Gravatt Judy Spence ALP 12.9%
Ipswich West Wayne Wendt ALP 13.1%
Yeerongpilly Simon Finn ALP 13.8%
Stretton Stephen Robertson ALP 14.2%
Brisbane Central Peter Beattie ALP 14.8%
Stafford Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 14.9%
Cook Jason O'Brien ALP 15.1%
Sandgate Vicky Darling ALP 15.2%
Waterford Evan Moorhead ALP 15.9%
Bulimba Pat Purcell ALP 16.2%
Capalaba Michael Choi ALP 16.2%
Fitzroy Jim Pearce ALP 16.4%
Lytton Paul Lucas ALP 16.9%
Albert Margaret Keech ALP 17.0%
Thuringowa Craig Wallace ALP 17.0%
Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP 17.6%
Algester Karen Struthers ALP 17.8%
Nudgee Neil Roberts ALP 18.3%
South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP 18.4%
Rockhampton Robert Schwarten ALP 20.5%
Ipswich Rachel Nolan ALP 21.6%
Logan John Mickel ALP 23.9%
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 24.8%
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 26.3%
Woodridge Desley Scott ALP 29.0%
NATIONAL/LIBERAL SEATS (25)
Marginal
Bundaberg Jack Dempsey NAT 0.9%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LIB 1.7%
Lockyer Ian Rickuss NAT 1.7%
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LIB 2.2%
Burdekin Rosemary Menkens NAT 2.4%
Robina Ray Stevens LIB 2.5%
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps NAT 3.7%
Caloundra Mark McArdle LIB 4.4%
Beaudesert Kev Lingard NAT 4.5%
Kawana Steve Dickson LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Noosa Glen Elmes LIB 6.3% v IND
Mirani Ted Malone NAT 6.5%
Burnett Rob Messenger NAT 7.6%
Moggill Bruce Flegg LIB 7.9%
Toowoomba South Mike Horan NAT 9.8%
Safe
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson NAT 10.7%
Charters Towers Shane Knuth NAT 11.0%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LIB 12.0%
Cunningham Stuart Copeland NAT 16.4%
Gregory Vaughan Johnson NAT 18.0%
Gympie David Gibson NAT 18.2% v IND
Darling Downs Ray Hopper NAT 19.1%
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg NAT 20.3%
Callide Jeff Seeney NAT 22.3%
Warrego Howard Hobbs NAT 23.3%
CROSSBENCH SEATS (5)
Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND 2.0% v ALP
Nanango Dorothy Pratt IND 4.2% v NAT
Tablelands Rosa Lee Long ONP 19.8% v ALP
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND 25.1% v NAT
Maryborough Chris Foley IND 32.7% v ALP

State of the parties before the election[edit]

Since April 2006, the ALP held 60 of the 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Coalition 23 seats (16 National and seven Liberal), along with five Independents and one member of the One Nation Party. Thus in order to win an outright majority (45 seats), the Coalition would have needed to win an additional 22 seats from the ALP, the Independents or One Nation, assuming that they retained all of their own seats. This would have required a uniform swing against Labor of approximately 8% (such swings are very rare).

Sitting Labor member for Noosa, Cate Molloy, had resigned from the Labor Party following her disendorsement as a Labor candidate, which in turn followed her repudiation of the state government's plans to build a dam on the Mary River at Traveston. Molloy recontested the seat as an Independent.

Members who did not recontest their seats[edit]

A number of members of parliament retired at this election:

Issues[edit]

From mid-2005, after the revelation of the Jayant Patel scandal, the issue of health has become a focus of controversy, damaging to the Beattie government. After several inquiries and industrial disputes, a restructure of Queensland Health took place, and the state government is currently lobbying the federal government for more doctor training places in universities for Queensland.

Other issues of importance at the election included environmental management and land clearing, asbestos in state schools, the provision of transportation and infrastructure to rural and regional areas, and the management of South East Queensland's population growth.

Polling[edit]

Legislative Assembly opinion polling
Primary vote 2PP vote
Date ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
2006 election 46.9% 20.1% 17.8% 8.0% 7.2% 55.0% 45.0%
6–7 Sep 2006 48% 21% 17% 4% 10% 55% 45%
25–28 Aug 2006 52% 20% 16% 2% 10% 58% 42%
Jul–Aug 2006 45% 25% 13% 2% 15% 54% 46%
Apr–Jun 2006 41% 26% 13% 4% 16% 52% 48%
Jan–Mar 2006 40% 28% 14% 4% 14% 50% 50%
Oct–Dec 2005 40% 27% 16% 3% 14% 50% 50%
Aug–Sep 2005 41% 26% 16% 4% 13% 50% 50%
Jul–Aug 2005 40% 27% 15% 3% 15% 50% 50%
Apr–Jun 2005 47% 23% 14% 3% 13% 56% 44%
Jan–Mar 2005 46% 27% 11% 5% 11% 55% 45%
Oct–Dec 2004 43% 29% 12% 3% 13% 52% 48%
2004 election 47.0% 18.5% 17.0% 6.7% 10.8% 55.5% 44.5%
4-5 Feb 2004 50% 18% 15% 5% 12% 59% 41%

Labor's high levels of support was maintained until mid-2005 when support for Labor slumped and the Coalition opened a minor lead on primary votes for the first time since 1996. However, this was eventually wiped out as Labor restored a huge lead in polls in the lead up to the election and the Coalition only managed a 0.5% swing. Even though some mid-term polls suggested a swing of up to 6% against Labor, a swing of over 8% was required for Labor to lose its majority.

Campaign[edit]

The campaign started unusually with Premier Peter Beattie denying a general election was about to be called, while residents in some Gold Coast electorates received direct mail from the ALP stating that the election had been called for September.

At a press conference on 16 August, Liberal leader Bruce Flegg stated that in the event that the Coalition won government, and the Liberal Party won more seats than the Nationals, Lawrence Springborg would still become Premier.[4] Other Liberal Party MPs such as Michael Caltabiano disagreed, as this ran contrary to the coalition agreement signed between the two parties, which stated that whichever party won the most seats would form government. The ALP used this to attack Coalition stability in media and advertising.

Flegg was subsequently asked to leave a shopping centre in the Redcliffe suburb of Kippa-Ring for failing to obtain permission to do a campaign walkthrough.[5] Flegg later denied that he had in fact been evicted.

On 22 August, Flegg took part in a media conference with Julie Bishop, federal Liberal Minister for Education, where he endorsed a Federal Government plan for the mandatory teaching of Australian history in schools. Responding to questions from journalists, he failed to identify the date of arrival of the Second Fleet (1790), or the person after whom Brisbane was named (noted astronomer and Governor of New South Wales Sir Thomas Brisbane).[6]

Two sad twists of fate impacted the 26-day campaign - on 30 August, opposition leader Lawrence Springborg took temporary leave from the campaign after the sudden death of his father-in-law, and National Party deputy leader Jeff Seeney and Liberal leader Bruce Flegg continued the campaign in his absence.[7] The death of TV personality Steve Irwin ("The Crocodile Hunter") on 4 September in an accident off Port Douglas, Queensland, took the media's focus away from the election in its final week.[8]

Current Treasurer Anna Bligh has stated the coalition's major election promises of wiping out stamp duty within five years, increasing the first home buyers grant by $3,000 and introducing a 10% per litre subsidy on ethanol-blended petrol will cost $2.4 billion and has blown the budget. Lawrence Springborg says all his election promises are costed and affordable, with costings to be released two days before the election.[9] So far these costings have not been released.

On Friday 8 September, the day before the election, Premier Beattie and Opposition Leader Springborg participated in a "great debate"[10] at the Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre, moderated by ABC journalist Chris O'Brien.

Although Newspoll and other published polls showed Labor well ahead on predicted two-party-preferred vote, Labor strategists feared that people would vote for the Coalition in a protest vote, expecting Beattie not to lose.[11] They adopted a strategy of denying Labor was in fact ahead.[12] The Roy Morgan poll suggested the Liberal vote had fallen, while the Greens had risen to 8%.[13]

Seats changing hands[edit]

Seat Pre-2006 Swing Post-2006
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bundaberg   Labor Nita Cunningham 5.3 -6.3 1.0 Jack Dempsey National  
Chatsworth   Liberal Michael Caltabiano 2.5 -3.3 0.8 Chris Bombolas Labor  
Clayfield   Labor Liddy Clark 1.2 -2.7 1.5 Tim Nicholls Liberal  
Gaven   National Alex Douglas 3.4 -6.5 3.1 Phil Gray Labor  
Gympie   Independent Elisa Roberts 10.1 -25.6 15.5 David Gibson National  
Kawana   Labor Chris Cummins 1.5 -7.3 5.8 Steve Dickson Liberal  
Noosa   Independent Cate Molloy 8.7 -9.7 1.0 Glen Elmes Liberal  
Redcliffe   Liberal Terry Rogers 1.3 -6.7 5.4 Lillian van Litsenburg Labor  

The margins and swings in Chatsworth, Gaven and Redcliffe are relative to the by-election results.

The margin for Noosa was notionally Labor, but sitting member Cate Molloy became an independent earlier in 2006. The post-election margin is National v. Labor.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Electoral Commission of Queensland (March 2007). Queensland Election 2006: Statistical Returns. p. 6. ISBN 0-7242-6857-X. 
  2. ^ Electoral Commission of Queensland. "Parliament of Queensland, Assembly election, 9 September 2006". Retrieved 22 March 2009. 
  3. ^ Green, Antony. "Totals for the 2006 Election". Queensland Election Archive. Retrieved 7 December 2014. 
  4. ^ "2006 Queensland. News: Springborg moves to defuse leadership tensions. Australian Broadcasting Corp". ABC. 2006-08-16. Retrieved 2010-06-09. 
  5. ^ "2006 Queensland. News: Flegg denies shopping centre confrontation. Australian Broadcasting Corp". ABC. 2006-08-18. Retrieved 2010-06-09. 
  6. ^ [1][dead link]
  7. ^ "Springborg leaves election campaign after father-in-law's death. 30/08/2006. ABC News Online". Abc.net.au. 2006-08-30. Retrieved 2010-06-09. 
  8. ^ "Steve Irwin". The Poll Bludger. 2006-09-04. Retrieved 2012-01-27. 
  9. ^ "2006 Queensland. News: Parties at odds over Coalition's costings. Australian Broadcasting Corp". ABC. 2006-09-04. Retrieved 2010-06-09. 
  10. ^ [2][dead link]
  11. ^ [3][dead link]
  12. ^ "Labor 'needs a miracle' to take Liberal seats. 07/09/2006. ABC News Online". Abc.net.au. 2006-09-07. Retrieved 2010-06-09. 
  13. ^ "[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll". Roymorgan.com. Retrieved 2010-06-09. 

External links[edit]