In finance, rNPV (risk-adjusted net present value) or eNPV (expected NPV) is a method to value risky future cash flows. rNPV modifies the standard NPV calculation of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis by adjusting (multiplying) each cash flow by the estimated probability that it occurs (the estimated success rate). In the language of probability theory, the rNPV is the expected value.
rNPV is the standard valuation method in the drug development industry, where sufficient data exists to estimate success rates for all R&D phases. In finance, a similar technique is used in the probability model of credit default swap (CDS) valuation, but in other financial contexts, risk is incorporated by adding a risk premium percentage to the discount rate.
- Stewart JJ et al. Putting a Price on Biotechnology. Nature Biotechnology. 2001. 19:5