Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014

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Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014
Rhode Island
2010 ←
November 4, 2014
→ 2018

 
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent Governor

Lincoln Chafee
Democratic

The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Rhode Island. Contested Democratic and Republican primaries will take place on September 9, 2014. Incumbent Democratic Governor Lincoln Chafee is eligible to run for re-election to a second term but has decided to retire.

Background[edit]

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. Senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for Governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he may run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat.[1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013 that he would not run for re-election.[2][3] Chafee is thus just the fourth Governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924.[4]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Ernie Almonte, former Auditor General of Rhode Island (running for Treasurer of Rhode Island)[9][10]
  • Lincoln Chafee, incumbent Governor[3]

Potential[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Giroux
Clay
Pell
Gina
Raimondo
Angel
Taveras
Other/
Undecided
Fleming & Associates May 27–30, 2014 506 ± 4.38% 1.6% 11.5% 29.2% 33.4% 24.3%
Brown University April 3–5, 2014 395 ± 4.9% 9.6% 29.4% 25.8% 35.2%
Fleming & Associates February 3–6, 2014 503 ± 4.38% 1.2% 14.7% 27% 31.2% 25.9%
Brown University October 2–5, 2013 433 ± 4.5% 42% 33.6% 24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^ September 10–12, 2013 400 ± 5% 30% 49% 21%
  • ^ Internal poll for Angel Taveras Campaign

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Block
Allan
Fung
Other/
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. * April 2014 300 ± ? 46% 37% 17%
Brown University April 3–5, 2014 86 ± 10.6% 36% 31.4% 38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. * October 2013  ? ± ? 25% 53% 22%
  • * Internal poll for Ken Block campaign

Other parties[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

[19]

  • Thomas Davis (Independent)
  • Kate Fletcher (Independent)
  • Leon Kayarian (Independent)
  • Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
  • James Spooner (Moderate)
  • Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for Governor in 2010 (switched to Republican primary)[13]

Declined[edit]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking
Cook Political Report[21] Lean D
Daily Kos Elections[22] Likely D
Governing[23] Lean D
RealClearPolitics[24] Likely D
The Rothenberg Political Report[25] Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Likely D

Polling[edit]

With Raimondo[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Brown University October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 3.9% 37.6% 35.9% 26.5%
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 46% 27% 12% 14%

With Taveras[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Brown University October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 3.9% 41.5% 32.9% 25.6%
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 37% 31% 15% 17%

Four-way race[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Brown University October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 4.5% 27.3% 20.7% 19% 9% 24%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Klepper, David (December 14, 2012). "RI Gov. Chafee open to running for 2nd term as Dem". Associated Press. Boston.com. Retrieved December 18, 2012. 
  2. ^ Sullivan, Sean (September 4, 2013). "Why Lincoln Chafee’s decision not to run for reelection is more good news for Democrats". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  3. ^ a b Taylor, Jessica (September 4, 2013). "Gov. Chafee won't run for a second term". NBC News. Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (September 6, 2013). "Chafee Just 4th Rhode Island Governor Since 1790 to Pass On 2nd Term". Smart Politics. Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  5. ^ Faccenda, Anthony (October 4, 2013). "The Scoop: Giroux to Run for Gov, RI Tea Party Talks Obamacare". GoLocalProv. Retrieved October 20, 2013. 
  6. ^ The Associated Press (January 27, 2014). "Clay Pell, husband of Michelle Kwan, to run for Rhode Island gov". POLITICO. Retrieved January 27, 2014. 
  7. ^ Nesi, Ted (December 18, 2013). "Gina Raimondo announces she'll run for governor". WPRI-TV. Retrieved December 18, 2013. 
  8. ^ Gregg, Katherine (October 26, 2013). "Providence Mayor Taveras confirms run for R.I. governor". The Providence Journal. Retrieved October 28, 2013. 
  9. ^ a b DeQuattro, Dee (April 30, 2013). "Almonte to run for General Treasurer, not Governor". ABC 6. Retrieved May 1, 2013. 
  10. ^ Nesi, Ted (May 16, 2013). "Ernie Almonte abandons campaign for governor to run for RI treasurer". WPRI. Retrieved May 17, 2013. 
  11. ^ Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee
  12. ^ http://blogs.wpri.com/2013/01/29/former-congressman-bob-weygand-mulling-run-for-governor/
  13. ^ a b Gregg, Katherine (October 28, 2013). "Ken Block, Moderate Party’s 2010 candidate for governor, seeking GOP nomination in 2014". The Providence Journal. Retrieved October 28, 2013. 
  14. ^ Rob Borkowski (November 4, 2013). "Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor". Woonsocket Patch. Retrieved November 4, 2013. 
  15. ^ Nesi, Ted (July 12, 2013). "Warwick's Avedisian may run for lieutenant governor in '14". WPRI-TV. Retrieved August 10, 2013. 
  16. ^ Kalunian, Kim (May 17, 2013). "NEWS: Brendan Doherty will not seek office in 2014". Retrieved May 20, 2013. 
  17. ^ https://twitter.com/danmcgowan/status/282194912865308672
  18. ^ "Robitaille says no plans to run for RI governor". Associated Press. NBC 10. October 18, 2013. Retrieved October 20, 2013. 
  19. ^ "12 candidates file papers in RI governor's race". NBC 10 News. June 25, 2014. Retrieved June 26, 2014. 
  20. ^ Nesi, Ted (October 26, 2013). "The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI". WPRI. Retrieved October 29, 2013. 
  21. ^ http://cookpolitical.com/governor/maps
  22. ^ http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/16/1255998/-Daily-Kos-Elections-gubernatorial-race-ratings-2013-14
  23. ^ http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-handicapping-2013-2014-governors-races-democrats.html
  24. ^ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/2014_elections_governor_map.html
  25. ^ http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor
  26. ^ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-governor/

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites