Schleswig-Holstein state election, 2012

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Schleswig-Holstein state election, 2012
Schleswig-Holstein
2009 ←
6 May 2012 → Next

All 69 seats of the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein
35 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 60.1%
  First party Second party Third party
  Jost de Jager 2011.jpg 13-08-23-torsten-albig-07.jpg Robert Habeck 20090917-DSCF1973.jpg
Leader Jost de Jager Torsten Albig Robert Habeck
Party CDU SPD Green
Last election 34 seats, 31.5% 25 seats, 25.4% 12 seats, 12.4%
Seats before 34 25 12
Seats won 22 22 10
Seat change Decrease 12 Decrease 3 Decrease 2
Popular vote 408,573 403,783 174,572
Percentage 30.8% 30.4% 13.2%
Swing Decrease 0.7% Increase 5.0% Increase 0.8%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  2013-08-23 - Wolfgang Kubicki - 8689.jpg 1417-ri-81-Piraten Torge Schmidt.jpg 1460-ri-107-Anke Spoorendonk SSW.jpg
Leader Wolfgang Kubicki Torge Schmidt Anke Spoorendonk
Party FDP Pirates SSW
Last election 14 seats, 14.9% 0 seats, 1.8% 4 seats, 4.3%
Seats before 14 0 4
Seats won 6 6 3
Seat change Decrease 8 Increase 6 Decrease 1
Popular vote 108,902 108,740 61,022
Percentage 8.2% 8.2% 4.6%
Swing Decrease 6.7% Increase 6.4% Increase 0.3%

  Seventh party
 
Leader Antje Jansen
Party Left
Last election 6 seats, 6.0%
Seats before 6
Seats won 0
Seat change Decrease 6
Popular vote 29,868
Percentage 2.2%
Swing Decrease 3.8%

Minister-President before election

Peter Harry Carstensen
CDU

Minister-President designate

Torsten Albig
SPD

A state election occurred in Schleswig-Holstein on 6 May 2012.[1][2] All 69 seats in the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein were contested in this election.

Exit polling results predicted a close race, with 30.6% for the CDU, 8.3% for the FDP, 29.9% for the SPD, 14% for the Greens, 8% for the Pirates, and 4.5% for the minority Danish SSW. The Left Party failed to achieve enough votes to pass the minimum threshold for representation.[3]

After the elections, SPD held coalition talks with the Greens and SSW, which have 35 seats altogether. The proposed coalition is dubbed as the Danish traffic light or Namibia coalition due to the participation of SSW. After the parties reached an agreement, SPD leader Albig was chosen by the Landtag as the new Minister-President with 37 votes on 12 June 2012.


Polls[edit]

Opinion polls[edit]

The following opinion polls were conducted during the campaign:

Pollster Date CDU SPD FDP Greens The Left SSW Pirates Others
GMS[4] 2012-05-02 32% 33% 6% 12% 2% 4% 8% 3%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[4] 2012-04-27 31% 31% 7% 12,5% 2,5% 4% 9% 3%
Infratest dimap[4] 2012-04-26 30% 32% 6% 13% 2,5% 4,5% 9% 3%
Infratest dimap[4] 2012-04-19 31% 32% 5% 13% 2% 4% 10% 3%
Infratest dimap[4] 2012-04-19 31% 32% 5% 13% 2% 4% 10% 3%
Infratest dimap[4] 2012-04-12 32% 32% 4% 12% 3% 4% 11% 2%
Infratest dimap[4] 2012-03-29 34% 32% 4% 15% 4% 4% 5% 2%
dimap[4] 2012-03-16 34% 33% 4% 15% 3% 4% 5% 2%
Forsa[4] 2012-03-05 35% 35% 2% 13% 3% 4% 5% 3%
Infratest dimap[4] 2012-02-17 33% 33% 3% 16% 3% 3% 5% 4%
Emnid[4] 2012-01-20 34% 32% 4% 15% 3% 3% 7% 2%
Forsa[4] 2011-11-18 33% 32% 3% 17% 3% 3% 6% 3%
Infratest dimap[4] 2011-09-28 30% 34% 3% 21% 2% 3% 4% 3%
Forsa[5] 2011-08-17 30% 32% 4% 19% 4% 4% 7%
Infratest dimap[4] 2011-05-17 33% 31% 4% 22% 2% 4% 1 %[6] 3%

Minister-President preference[edit]

Pollsters also asked about voter preferences for the next Minister-President:

Pollster Date Jost de Jager
(CDU)
Torsten Albig
(SPD)
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[7] 2012-04-27 29% 44%
Infratest dimap 2012-04-26 27% 49%
Infratest dimap 2012-04-19 32% 56%
Infratest dimap 2012-04-12 31% 53%
Infratest dimap 2012-03-29 33% 49%
Infratest dimap 2012-02-17 29% 45%
Infratest dimap 2011-09-28 27% 45%
Forsa 2011-08-17 30% 34%

Results[edit]

Angela Merkel, Jost de Jager and Susanne Herold (L to R)
e • d Summary of the 6 May 2012 Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein elections results[8]
< 2009  Flag of Schleswig-Holstein.svg  
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % +/– Seats +/–
Christian Democratic Union
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands - CDU
408,573 30.8 Decrease0.7 22 Decrease12
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands - SPD
403,783 30.4 Increase5.0 22 Decrease3
Alliance '90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
174,752 13.2 Increase0.8 10 Decrease2
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP
108,902 8.2 Decrease6.7 6 Decrease8
Pirate Party Germany
Piraten Partei Deutschlands
108,740 8.2 Increase6.4 6 Increase6
South Schleswig Voter Federationa
Südschleswigscher Wählerverband – SSW
61,022 4.6 Increase0.3 3 Decrease1
Left
Die Linke
29,868 2.2 Decrease3.8 0 Decrease6
Other parties 32,032 2.4 Decrease1.2 0 0
Valid votes 1,327,672 59.3 Decrease12.8
Invalid votes 19,585 0.9 0
Totals and voter turnout 1,347,257 60.1 Decrease13.5 69 Decrease26
Electorate 2,240,148 100.00
Note: a As representation of the Danish minority in Schleswig-Holstein, South Schleswig Voter Federation does not need to gain a minimum of 5 percent of the votes to obtain seats in the parliament, as all other parties do.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Schleswig-Holstein wählt im Mai 2012, Welt (in German), 15 March 2011, retrieved 12 January 2012 
  2. ^ "Landtagswahl 2012". Schleswig-Holstein.de (in German). Retrieved 12 January 2012. 
  3. ^ "Close race in German state elections with center-right poised to lose majority". Washington Post. Associated Press. 6 May 2012. Retrieved 7 May 2012. 
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl in Schleswig-Holstein" [Opinion polls for Schleswig-Holstein parliamentary election]. Wahlrecht.de (in German). 
  5. ^ "LN-Umfrage: Schleswig-Holsteiner strafen CDU für Sex-Affäre ab" [LN poll: Schleswig-Holsteiner punish CDU for sex affair]. ln-online.de (in German). Retrieved 17 August 2011. 
  6. ^ "Umfragen von Infratest dimap zur Landtagswahl" [Infratest dimap polls for state elections] (in German). Infratest dimap. 27 September 2011. Retrieved 7 May 2012. 
  7. ^ "Unklare Mehrheitsverhältnisse in Kiel" [Unclear majority in Kiel]. ZDF Politbarometer Extra (in German). ZDF. 27 April 2012. Retrieved 7 May 2012. 
  8. ^ "Landtagswahl in Schleswig-Holstein am 6. Mai 2012" (in German). Statistical Office for Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg. 7 May 2012. Retrieved 7 May 2012.