Self-defeating prophecy

A self-defeating prophecy is the complementary opposite of a self-fulfilling prophecy: a prediction that prevents what it predicts from happening. This is also known as the "prophet's dilemma".

A self-defeating prophecy can be the result of rebellion to the prediction. If the audience of a prediction has an interest in seeing it falsified, and its fulfillment depends on their actions or inaction, their actions upon hearing it will make the prediction less plausible. If a prediction is made with this outcome specifically in mind, it is commonly referred to as reverse psychology. Also, when working to make a premonition come true, one can inadvertently change the circumstances so much that the prophecy cannot come true.

It is important to distinguish a self-defeating prophecy from a self-fulfilling prophecy that predicts a negative outcome. If a prophecy of a negative outcome is made, and that negative outcome is achieved as a result of positive feedback, then it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, if a group of people decide they will not be able to achieve a goal and stop working towards the goal as a result, their prophecy was self-fulfilling. Likewise, if a prediction of a negative outcome is made, but the outcome is positive because of negative feedback resulting from the rebellion, then that is a self-defeating prophecy.

Examples

• The Year 2000 problem was an example of a self-defeating prophecy, in that fear of massive technology failures caused by clocks "rolling over" encouraged the very changes needed to avoid those failures. Pre-announcing products in a way that discourages current sales (the Osborne effect) is also an example of a self-defeating prophecy.

• The film The Matrix also incorporates a self-defeating prophecy. When Neo is taken to the Oracle, she tells him that he's not "the One". She then goes on to tell him that Morpheus believes so blindly that Neo is "the One", that he will risk his life to save him. Therefore, Neo eventually will have to make a choice between his own life, and Morpheus'. Later on, when he is faced with Morpheus' imminent death, Neo makes the choice to save Morpheus, believing that if he himself dies it won't matter, because he is not "the One". Neo manages to save Morpheus without dying himself, contrary to the Oracle's prediction. Seeing that Neo is confused by this, Morpheus explains, "She [the Oracle] told you exactly what you needed to hear. That's all." Neo then discovers that he is in fact "the One". If the Oracle had told Neo earlier that he was "the One", he might not have been willing to risk his own life for Morpheus'.

• In the Eighth Doctor Adventures novels published by the BBC, the Eighth Doctor learns that he has been infected by the Faction Paradox biodata virus in his third incarnation and will eventually become one of the Faction, prompting him to take action to find a way to cure himself; even when the future version of himself that will result from his infection appears, the knowledge that he was infected inspired the Doctor to start work on finding a cure, learning that his TARDIS had already taken action to help him. If the Doctor had not been informed that he would become a member of the Faction, he might not have realised what was happening to him until it was too late.

See also

• Self-refuting idea
• Self-fulfilling prophecy

External links

• Bushman BJ, Baumeister RF, Stack AD (Mar 1999). "Catharsis, aggression, and persuasive influence: self-fulfilling or self-defeating prophecies?". J Pers Soc Psychol 76 (3): 367–76. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.76.3.367. PMID 10101875. http://content.apa.org/journals/psp/76/3/367.