South Australian state election, 2014
The 2014 South Australian state election will elect members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2010 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2006 election, will become vacant. The 12-year incumbent Australian Labor Party, currently led by Premier Jay Weatherill, will be challenged by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia, currently led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.
Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.
The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.
The election campaign must run for a minimum of 25 days or a maximum of 55 days. Between 7 and 10 days after the writs are issued, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of South Australia of any changes in their place of residence. Candidates wishing to stand for election can nominate between the issue of the writs and no more than 14 days after the close of rolls for a deposit of $450.
The centre-left Labor Party, currently led by Premier Jay Weatherill, and the centre-right Liberal Party, currently led by Leader of the Opposition Steven Marshall, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such (Fisher), Geoff Brock (Frome), and Don Pegler (Mount Gambier). Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party. In the upper house, the Labor Party holds eight seats, the Liberal Party holds seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies all hold two seats each, and Dignity for Disability holds one seat.
- Patrick Conlon MHA (Elder)
- John Hill MHA (Kaurna)
- Robyn Geraghty MHA (Torrens)
- Lyn Breuer MHA (Giles)
- Michael Wright MHA (Lee)
- Ivan Venning MHA (Schubert)
To produce 'fair' boundaries, which has a history going back to the mid-1900s Playmander, the Electoral Commission of South Australia has been required to re-draw boundaries after each election with two-party electoral outcomes in mind since 1989.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation's Antony Green had expected the government's majority to be redistributed away as a result. However, the draft redistribution altering 36 of 47 seats nominally gave 26 Labor seats and 21 Liberal seats on a two-party basis. Frome was proposed to be moved from Labor to Liberal on a two-party basis and Norwood was proposed to be renamed to Dunstan.
The Commission stated it is of the view that the 2010 election boundaries "were fair. Had the Liberal Party achieved a uniform swing it would have formed Government. The Commission has no control over, and can accept no responsibility for, the quality of the candidates, policies and campaigns".
The final redistribution was released in August 2012, which in addition to the Frome two-party margin change and the renaming of Norwood to Dunstan, also changed Bright from a 0.4 percent Labor seat to a 0.1 percent notionally Liberal seat.
The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Margins have been adjusted as per the 2012 redistribution.
- As Bright is notionally Liberal, the margin appears as a negative.
|West Torrens||Tom Koutsantonis||ALP||9.8%|
|Little Para||Lee Odenwalder||ALP||10.9%|
|Port Adelaide||Susan Close||ALP||12.4%|
|Stuart||Dan van Holst Pellekaan||LIB||7.4%|
|Mt Gambier||Don Pegler||IND||0.4% v LIB|
|Frome||Geoff Brock||IND||7.5% v LIB|
|Fisher||Bob Such||IND||16.6% v LIB|
|Current (2010–14) members of the South Australian Legislative Council|
|Labor||Liberal||SA Greens||Family First||No Pokies||Dignity for Disability|
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 800 electors. The declared margin of error at this sample size is ±3.5 percent. Two-party preferred figures are calculated based on preference flows at the previous state election.
|Primary vote||TPP vote|
|Jan–Mar 2012||34%||40%||< .5%||11%||15%||48%||52%|
|25 Feb–6 Mar 2011||29%||42%||1%||14%||14%||44%||56%|
|20 Mar 2010 election||37.5%||41.7%||1.0%||8.1%||11.7%||48.4%||51.6%|
|14–18 Mar 2010||35.3%||42.5%||< .5%||9.3%||12.3%||48%||52%|
|Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
|25 Feb–6 Mar 2011||32%1||50%2||30%1||59%1||52%2||25%2|
|20 Mar 2010 election||–||–||–||–||–||–|
|14–18 Mar 2010||43%1||45%2||43%1||48%1||59%2||23%2|
|Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Mike Rann.
2 Isobel Redmond.
- "Australian elections timetable". Australian Parliamentary Library. Retrieved 5 February 2013.
- "Electoral Questions & Answers". State Electoral Office, South Australia. 13 February 2006. Retrieved 26 December 2007.
- "Senior Ministers to quit State Parliament". ABC News. 15 January 2013. Retrieved 15 January 2013.
- "Government Whip Robyn Geraghty will retire at the 2014 election".
- "Lyn Breuer ponders her political deadline".
- "Former Foley staffer tipped for Wright's seat".
- Antony Green (29 March 2010). "South Australian Election, Final 2-Party Preferred Counts". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- Antony Green (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- Antony Green (1 June 2012). "New State Electoral Boundaries Proposed for South Australia". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- "Draft Redistribution Report". Electoral Commission of South Australia. 12 August 2011. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- "Liberals want three marginal Labor seats to swing their way:". The Advertiser. 5 August 2012.
- "Final redistribution report". Electoral Commission of South Australia.
- "South Australia redistributed". Poll Bludger. 23 August 2012.