Sports betting systems
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Sports betting systems refers to a set of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Systems supposedly allow the gambler to have an edge.
Sportsbooks use systems in their analysis to set more accurate odds. Therefore the novice gambler may believe that using a system will always work, it is the general consensus that at some point, the oddsmakers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. Very short-lived systems are called trends. Any single event that estimates a selection to have a higher likelihood of winning is called an angle as they are meant to be used in conjunction with other angles and trends to produce systems.
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[edit] Betting on systems
Systems can be deceiving. Any sample space can be constrained enough with meaningless criteria to create the illusion of a profitable betting system. For example, a coin can be flipped with heads being home teams and tails being road teams. Heads and tails each have a 50% probability of landing but if the amount of flips is limited to a small number, it is conceivable to create the illusion of predicting heads will come up 75% of the time.
That, in conjunction with the fact that sportsbooks adjust their odds according to the systems makes it difficult to follow systems indefinitely. The sportsbooks are slower to adjust the odds in some sports versus other sports depending on the number of games played and the amount of money they take in from bettors.
Betting systems based on statistical analysis have been around for awhile, however they have not always been well known. One group that was known for their accurate predictions was called The Computer Group. They formed in Las Vegas in 1980 and successfully wagered on college football and basketball games for years making millions. Billy Walters, who was recently profiled on 60 minutes, is the most famous member of the group.
Sports betting systems have not always been well trusted or liked by bettors. The stigma is that a sporting event has too many intangibles that a machine can't predict. However, things have begun to change recently as owners of teams have begun to take notice of the value in statistics. Front offices have hired noted statistical analysts such as Jeff Sagarin.
Books like Sabermetrics, by Bill James, and Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver, have begun to bring detailed statistical analysis to the forefront of sports betting systems. Blogs are now being written more frequently about the topic and sports handicapping services such as RLD Investments have made claims of great success using sports betting systems from advanced statistical research.
[edit] Determining systems
Determining systems is a matter of using computer analysis tools and extracting all the possible games that meet a bettor's criteria. Then the bettor analyzes the results of those games to make a determination if one team is favored over the other.
[edit] Two Types of Betting Systems
[edit] Multiple regressions
The stronger the historical info you have the more accurate your results will be. You will never be able to call a game within 100% of accuracy because there will always be undetermined agents, but if you have the right info you are surely able to anticipate the game like the pros.
Historical data you need to know to apply multiple regressions is: Wins, Losses, Win to Lose ratio, home game record, away game record, past ten game outcomes, win/loss streaks, injuries, team changes (new coach, loss of important player, etc.)
[edit] Statistical anomalies
These are deviations from the common rule and give you a competitive advantage. You may be surprised to know that most scores in a football game happen only in the 3 and 7 point markers? Of course there are always missed extra points, safeties and conversions, but when compared to all points scored, they only account for a minor percentage. This point statistical distribution factor opens up the possibility of statistical anomalies.
To find anomalies you need to cautiously review players and team statistics. You should also know significant factors such as: injuries, does the team tend to win more in indoor or outdoor sports stadiums, weather (for outdoor games), what atmospheric conditions is the team used to playing in, etc.. You can also look for anomalies based on public opinion and team psyche.
Factors that are used into determining betting systems are a mix of psychological, motivational, biological, situational factors that, based on past performances, support one team over another. It is generally believed that more than one factor pointing towards a team is needed to have a successful betting system.
