Survey of Professional Forecasters
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The Survey of Professional Forecasters, also called The Anxious Index, is a report on the prospects for the Economy of the United States issued quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. "The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990." "The survey asks panelists to estimate the probability that real GDP will decline in the quarter in which the survey is taken and in each of the following four quarters." "The index often goes up just before recessions begin. For example, the first quarter survey of 2001 (taken in February) reported a 32 percent anxious index; the National Bureau of Economic Research subsequently declared the start of a recession in March 2001. The anxious index peaks during recessions, then declines when recovery seems near. For example, the index fell to 14 percent in the second quarter of 2002, when economic indicators began improving."
- "Survey of Professional Forecasters" on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
- Note on "The Anxious Index" on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, regarding the survey for the first quarter of 2008