Talk:Cyclone Tracy

Strength

There is no source for either the claim that this was a Cat 4 on the SSHS or on the Australian scale. All that is included in the article is a windspeed that corresponds to Australian Category 3. I know Tracy is considered to be Aus Cat 4, but that needs asserting. This and this give an assertions of that. The follow-up question is: If it was Category 4 can we say its winds were at least the minimum Cat 4 speed? The anemometer measurement is merely the highest winds directly recorded. The assertion for Cat 4 strength will be from satellite/radar and whilst not directly measured it would have been inferred; like is the case with all TCs. There should be a real estimate for the peak strength out there - the pdf above says 250 km/h for example. If you consider that reliable enough whack it in, that's Cat 4 asserted. If you want a BoM estimate hunt around or email.--Nilfanion (talk) 11:59, 16 April 2007 (UTC)

I live in darwin and my whole family went through Tracy. Wind speeds only got recorded up until the barometer at the airport was ripped away. and Tracy was a cat 4 at that time. most meteorologists have speculated that she got upto a cat 5. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 202.176.6.133 (talk) 20:14, 17 September 2008 (UTC)

Record broken by Tropical Storm Marco (2008)

Whilst it may be true that the smallest cyclone on record has been broken by Tropical Storm Marco - the advisory notice is not enough to confirm that fact at this stage. I have reverted that edit and suggest that editors await a confirmation before it is returned. If the record being broken is confirmed then the fact will become clear soon enough.--VS ^talk 03:07, 9 October 2008 (UTC)

Oh, the humanity....

Yes, I was there that Xmas Eve and it is impossible to forget the massive piles of refuse, the broken buildings, the stunned people, the complete chaos everywhere. And then on top of that the poor buggers get hit by a cyclone! Myles325a (talk) 03:10, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

Oh, very funny. Let's confine this page to a discussion of the actual article, and leave poor-taste jokes for the pub. -- JackofOz (talk) 03:15, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

Info box

Ok just a few issues one is the 250km/h claim seems to be very confused as some sources say Wind gust and others say Wind speed, Second issue is Tracy would be at least Cat 3 on the SSHS scale not Cat 1 as what the new info box claims. I will be emailing the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for facts on Tracy in hope to get everything corrected. Bidgee (talk) 00:46, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

The 250 km/h claim is mentioned in the above link in the same sentence as the 217 km/h, which we already know is the speed of the gust [1]. We cannot say it is a Category 4 unless we also say that it is at least 225 km/h. Some here may accept the 225 number and some may accept the 250 number. I think since it is a government source, it is usable.

The article should stay with the new infobox, though, because that old one is depreciated. The problem is not with the template, but with the available data. We cannot say that is is a Category 3 or 4 on the SSHS without breaking the Wikipedia:NOR rule. I don't think BoM will have a 1-minute value, so until they do, the only thing that's citable is JTWC's estimate of 65 knots.

Additionally, if BoM claims that it is a category 3 or 4 on the SSHS but doesn't provide an estimated value, we can just change the 1 minute value to 96 knots or 115 knots.

Also, be careful about doing full reverts because you are also undoing lots of other edits. Potapych (talk) 01:44, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

"The anemometer at Darwin Airport recorded a gust of 217 km/h before the instrument was destroyed."[2] so it wasn't possible to record 250km/h and was only a thought of the damage done and even to the very day it's debated (As is if it was a Cat 4 or 5 on the Australian Scale).

Infact it is an issue with the template as it only works on those Cyclone that now have the 1 min data which a lot of the other Cyclones do not. This is were OR can be ignored since we know that the winds were around and the Category in the Australian scale. It's not possible for a Category 4 system to be a Cat 1 on the SSHS scale. Also you've not sourced the $775 million USD damage bill. Bidgee (talk) 02:00, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

Darwin Airport anemometer recorded 217 km/h before failing, thus denying an exact reading of Tracy's wind strength but they were estimated to have reached 250 km/h.

When I have time I plan to make the template more like the small one, which doesn't ask for 1-minute values. The 775 million is a conversion from the 1998 damage estimate in Australian dollars (It's hidden in the notes). The SSHS category was probably anywhere between 3-5, but the question is which? We don't have any sustained wind speeds to make that assumption. Potapych (talk) 02:18, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

Using the values available Tracy would have been a low end 4 on the SSHS scale. I've sent an email to the Met office in Dawin. Bidgee (talk) 02:21, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

Actually I just fixed the template to make SSHS optional. I'll comment that part out until they get back to you. Potapych (talk) 02:32, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

Just one thing i doubt you will be able to get a SSHS cat for ANY cyclones from the JTWC as they did not monitor the SHEM until 1980 Jason Rees (talk) 03:30, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

They don't have them in the ATCR, but they have best tracks for these - some even have the maximum sustained winds. [3] Potapych (talk) 04:58, 23 November 2008 (UTC)

I found another source that shows a map with categories at several points. I'm going to change the infobox once again to make the maximum gusts 240 km/h [4]. Do you want to add categories to the map you made? Potapych (talk) 02:56, 24 November 2008 (UTC)

Thanks for that. I'll get around to fixing that up (infact make a new map as well.) I've also got an email back from Tood Smith from the Darwin Office,

Dear ******,

Thank you for your query, and also for keeping the Wikipedia article up to date and correct.

The highest sustained 10-minute mean winds were in the range of 140-150km/h. This is an estimate based on the measured gust of 217km/h and the estimated maximum gust of 240km/h.

To convert from 10-minute mean winds into 1-minute mean winds, we multiply by about 1.15 (I say "about", as this can vary with surface roughness).

So 1-minute mean winds were probably in the order of 160-175km/h.

Using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, this places Tracy as a Category 2 Hurricane.

I hope this helps you to correct the article.

Regards,

Todd

References:

"Report on Cyclone Tracy, December 1974", Bureau of Meteorology 1977.

"Cyclone Tracy, Technical Report 14", Bureau of Meteorology, 1975.

"Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region, July 1909 to June 1980", Lourensz (Bureau of Meteorology) 1981.

At least we've now got something to work with to fix up this article which clearly needs to be done. Bidgee (talk) 13:49, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

For it to be a category 4, the 10-minute mean winds should be between 160 - 199 [5]. The gusts seem to agree with their map. Also their chart[6] does seem to agree that a category 4 cyclone on their scale is roughly equivalent to a SSHS category 2-3 hurricane. I was hoping to include the 10-minute mean winds, but those numbers aren't high enough for a category 4 cyclone. Potapych (talk) 20:08, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

Still working on the new map (Got a few things to fix such as the font and ocean colour) but need to know your thoughts on it Image:Cyclone Tracy map.png. Bidgee (talk) 12:23, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Damages

I am a little skeptical about the $837 AUD in 1974. I found a source that uses that same number for the insurance payout in 2005 AUD (see page 4). There's a similar figure here [7], though it doesn't say what year. Potapych (talk) 01:04, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Same. Reason why I asked for you to source $775 million USD damage bill as I found it a little high for 1974 (Then again I could be wrong). Bidgee (talk) 01:27, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

I did some searching. The EMA database [8] has the $837 million figure again, and if you look in Information you'll see that it says the costs represent the costs at the time of the disaster. Now we have to convert that to US dollars in 1974. I checked the Reserve Bank of Australia and looked up the monthly data from Dec 1974 [9]. I believe that number represents the value of the US dollar against the $A at the time, so I am getting $1110.699 million USD. The $837 can be cited in the article, but we need USD for the infobox. Potapych (talk) 06:34, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Global best track

I found this at this source[10]. Would anyone prefer it if the article used this information instead? The most interesting thing about this track is that it indicates Tracy was a Category 3 storm on the SSHS. I can also make a track map directly from this data.

15640 12/21/1974 M= 5 36 SNBR=1740 TRACY       XING=0 SSS=3                          
15641 12/21*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0* 931320  10  990* 961315  35  990*
15642 12/22* 991312  38  990*1041309  43  985*1071307  40  985*1111306  43  985*
15643 12/23*1121304  48  980*1141302  50  976*1161300  50  975*1171299  60  971*
15644 12/24*1191299  70  970*1211302  70  964*1221305  60  956*1241309 110  950*
15645 12/25*1251314  80  968*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0*
15646 HR SRC=jtwc_sh:bom:neumann  S/N=1974356S09132

Potapych (talk) 14:45, 20 December 2008 (UTC)

I'm in the process of make a map based on the BoM's category scale and track but the above data map help me to also add SSHS some how. Bidgee (talk) 22:44, 20 December 2008 (UTC)

Withstanding

{{editsemiprotected}} In PREPARATIONS: should be "... withstanding ...", not "... with standing ...".

Done. --- RockMFR 19:59, 11 February 2009 (UTC)

Damages Again

Why on earth are the damage costs in this articles' infobox given in US Dollars only? My particular interest is checking whether Tracy or the 1999 Sydney hailstorm was the most costly, allowing for inflation. The hailstorm article says "The 1999 Sydney hailstorm was the costliest natural disaster in Australian insurance history". I would have thought Cyclone Tracy was worse? - 220.101 talk^\Contribs 04:42, 17 September 2010 (UTC)

AMOJ

Just to let people know the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal has released a special issue on Cyclone Tracy. It includes a journal from two forecasters at TCWC Perth & Darwin reanalyzing Tracy's windspeeds and pressure.Jason Rees (talk) 19:42, 3 November 2010 (UTC)

Need for re-write

This section has upset a recent triviacleaner in action - it needs to be re-written and sourced and probably reasserted that is is a very valid part of Australian history - regardless of the cultural title: -

'===Cyclone Tracy in popular culture==='

- 'Cyclone Tracy, because of its severity, has entered into the popular culture of Australia in a way that no other meteorological event has ever before, or has since. Probably the most famous work that it has inspired is the song "Santa Never made it into Darwin" composed by Bill Cate and performed by Bill (Cate) and Boyd (Robinson) in 1975 to raise money for the relief and reconstruction efforts. Subsequently the song became so well-known that in 1983 Hoodoo Gurus released "Tojo Never Made it to Darwin", a song comparing the Japanese bombing of Darwin under the command of Hideki Tojo during World War II to the damage done by Cyclone Tracy. The much feared Japanese invasion never happened, but the cyclone that was virtually ignored ended up destroying the city.

In 1986 the Nine Network and PBL created Cyclone Tracy, a period drama mini-series based on the events during the cyclone. Michael Fisher, Ted Roberts, and Leon Saunders wrote the series, and it starred Chris Haywood and Tracy Mann, who played the lead characters of Steve and Connie.

Australian heavy metal band, Cyclone Tracy, took their name from the tropical disaster.

Placed here in agf in the hope that a re-write might not so much offend the sensibilities of the keep or delete sides of the argument SatuSuro 08:28, 7 July 2011 (UTC)