Talk:Pandemic

Definition

The definition of pandemic given in the intro is controversial and always debated where epidemiologists cluster. A pandemic must involve people from different parts of the world and potentially the globe. The definitions are easy to remember in general terms if one just goes back to the roots of the prefix - en, means exists within, epi means above (the usual number of cases) and pan means "everywhere or everything" so if you have them down you don't have to remember any more. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 123.211.107.86 (talk) 20:23, 4 May 2009 (UTC)

WHO Level

It's currently 4, not 3. This is a trivial edit, please make it. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html Themusicgod1 (talk) 22:49, 27 April 2009 (UTC)

Definition

I could be wrong but it seems to me that the 'definition' given on this page from the WHO is not meant as a definition at all but as a set of conditions that, when met, may give rise to a pandemic. Is this the case? If so, can we get a proper definition of what a pandemic is? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 94.193.28.179 (talk) 22:24, 27 April 2009 (UTC)

The WHO criteria are for various alert stages or 'levels' in preparation for pandemic conditions which is defined as level 6. There is far more need for the listing of the WHO levels and their criteria than for a subarticle on each of the pandemics in history. Those should be in a list of links to separate articles. The WHO criteria are what people need to know for planning purposes and should be prominent in this article. Moreover, WHO just changed definitions in the middle of the current outbreak and there is much confusion resulting from this. This article is in desperate need of expert attention and editing down. Jim Bowery (talk) 23:00, 27 April 2009 (UTC)

It's very hard to even find the original definition of a pandemic according to the WHO anywhere, or to trace what the exact changes are the WHO applied just before declaring the pandemic. There's only some press statements about alleviating the conditions, which was apparently done so. The result can be googled anywhere (and is on this page), but it might be interesting to spice this article with the original definition to clarify the need to change it. I know of 1 possible reference that I cannot check myself: an interview with epidemiologist Tom Jefferson in Der Spiegel from July 2009. 94.224.138.5 (talk) 00:16, 3 November 2009 (UTC)

- Depending on the course of a disease in a population there are different regimes. A localized occurence with limited numbers of infected is an outbreak, exponential initial growth and propagation in space is an epidemic while we speak of a pandemic state if a nonzero fraction of the total population is infected at all times. Think of an epidemic as a forest fire and AIDS as an example for a pandemic. This is my understanding coming from the field of modeling (see SIS model). Any opinions about that? --133.65.54.177 (talk) 03:47, 28 April 2009 (UTC)

Amen! If a pandemic is an epidemic an a larger global scale, who says it has to be infectious?? —Preceding unsigned comment added by Lola918 (talk • contribs) 03:54, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

Definition -- a disease and condition

I propose that the following sentence should be inserted before the second sentence (= A widespread endemic disease ~).

"A pandemic can mean both a disease and condition."

--05:48, 17 August 2009 (UTC) —Preceding unsigned comment added by 220.211.221.21 (talk)

Issues

Issues, and one real problem:

• If the "Antonine plague" was smallpox, it was less virulent than in more recent times.
• Identification of black plague with bubonic plague has been questioned.
• The list of cholera epidemics jumps from fourth to sixth. Vicki Rosenzweig

Well, I hate to bring it up, but the causal agent of all non-modern plagues, historic and prehistoric, is always subject to question. Opinions on these things run in fashions -- like drapery fabrics. The popular one these days is anthrax -- here, there, and everywhere. These mysteries will never be "solved" absolutely, but keep in mind that the immunity of the population and the bio ID of the disease strain has a significant impact in each occurance. When a disease is new to a population (i.e. the America's) the impact can be horrific. But later on, ..... For what it's worth, I think the Antonine Plague (above) was measles, and the Plague of Cyprian a couple of generations later was smallpox. But that is just my opinion and historians vary. Sorry to run off at the mouth, but it is strange and unreasonable for modern people to expect absolute truth about historic occurances (even in Wiki). Comments welcome. WBardwin 02:53, 27 May 2005 (UTC)

History of medicine?

I'm taking this out of history of medicine category (it doesn't seem to fit very well there, for what the content is) but sticking the list of historical epidemics there (effectively in its place). Just leaving this note so there's a place for people to get all outraged about the switchabout if they want. --Viki 21:18, 14 Sep 2004 (UTC)

Quoted

To see this quoted and updated, see http://www2.townonline.com/hudson/opinion/view.bg?articleid=112611 13:24, 4 Nov 2004 (UTC)

Plague/History/Social Impact

Some of us on the history side of Wiki have been putting together articles on historic plagues. Recently, discussion has turned to organizing this material for better retrieval by our readers. We have created one new disambig. page and may consider something like a master article, categories, and list organizations. Articles like this one would be referenced and perhaps involved in the shuffle. If you would like to comment on this type of thing, I will check back here periodically or you might comment on the talk page of a (perhaps temporary) article simply called Plague. Thank you. WBardwin 02:45, 27 May 2005 (UTC)

It concerns me that there are "summaries" of pandemics (here, for example), such as Justinian's Plague, in addition to an original article which lays it out in detail. There is probably a Wiki article somewhere that describes a policy on putting the same or summarized material in more than one place. So when high level details change (which would change a summary), articles have to be changed in many places, well beyond one contributor to keep up with. So the main article may be correct and all these scattered summaries wrong, or wrong in some detail. So I vote for disambig if this sort of scatter summaries can be avoided. Whatever is done, I would think that a single summary could be referenced for all disease-oriented summaries (there may be others that need different facts, like historical ones, for example)67.8.201.227 03:22, 11 November 2006 (UTC)

Article on Avian Infuenza

"In June 2005, there's work on this wiki regarding preparation for an avian influenza pandemic. It is the first time a pandemic can be foreseen, maybe averted, maybe mitigated. The reader is urged to go to that page and maybe do some work there."

Moved Lugon's contribution from article page for consideration by contributors. WBardwin 16:20, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)

AIDS

I truly do not understand the rationale for AIDS not being included in the list of pandemics. SARS, which did make the cut, occurred in a tiny population for a tiny timespan compared to the ravages of AIDS through Africa and Asia. - Montrealais

I don't either. It seems to fit the definition of an epidemic and is mentioned as such in that wiki article. Given the global effect of HiV infections (incidentally, few epidemics mentioned in the pandemics article actually are global, eg, everything mentioned before the Black Death), it warrants a mention IMHO. -- KarlHallowell 13:09, 23 December 2005 (UTC)

Looking more carefully, even the CDC [1] considers HIV/AIDS to be a current pandemic.

CDC's HIV mission is to prevent HIV infection and reduce the incidence of HIV-related illness and death, in collaboration with community, state, national, and international partners. CDC’s programs work to improve treatment, care, and support for persons living with HIV and to help build capacity and infrastructure to address the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Even if this disease isn't considered to be an epidemic (because the infection rate, though high, is "relatively low") in some regions, it certainly was in the 80's. Further, the remark neglects that since the rate of HIV infection apparently is currently increasing substantially in Asia, we should say that HIV/AIDS is epidemic in Africa and in Asia even though a small fraction of the population is infected. The rate of increase is a key component of the definition of "epidemic". -- KarlHallowell 18:26, 9 January 2006 (UTC)

Now the page lists AIDS under 'future pandemics', but then says that it is a pandemic now. The page needs to be updated.

Plague

Wasn't there a third outbreak of plague, just before the great fire of london in 1666? I don't know whether it was bubonic or pnemonic though. Perhaps someone should look it up and verify, then add to the article? mastodon 01:36, 6 November 2005 (UTC)

The episode of plague in London, see Great Plague, was one of the last outbreaks associated with the Black Death pandemic. There were several "last gasps" of the disease in Europe during that later period. The disease spottily reappeared in the 18th century as part of the international contagion known as the Third Pandemic. What kind of information about this particular outbreak would you like to see in the Pandemic article? WBardwin 22:01, 6 November 2005 (UTC)

Concern about possible future pandemics

im deleting the bit that says: "As of 2004, these diseases have been so virulent as to limit their transmission (an effect known as "burning out")." because it says http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola <-- here that: "One pervasive myth follows that the virus kills so fast that it has little time to spread. Victims die very soon after contact with the virus. In reality, the incubation time is usually about a week. The average time from onset of early symptoms to death varies in the range 3-21 days, with a mean of 10.1."

List of doomsday scenarios

Could use votes to save this article, thanks MapleTree 22:32, 28 September 2006 (UTC)

Falsification of figures

Some of these figures, like 25 million dying in 1917-18 of which 17 million in India alone is stupid babble. Such ridiculuous numbers have not been recorded by numerous British historians of British India. If the authors of these figures do come across some verifiable sources (printed books from the pre SARS and Bird Flu era please!) please share them.

The total number of WWI casualties according to Wikipedia was 20 million. I wonder why the world press of the time did not fixate upon the "World Flu" instead of the "World War" or the Great Depression since the flu (according to this author) killed 20 percent more people than the war within a fourth of its duration.

All this attention has only come about since the Avian Flu and has resulted in every other author bumping up the number of flu-attributable deaths by the millions. These pandemics only exist in the minds of authors who seem to go for sensationalism more than fact, and who seem to be living in places which they think are immune from future pandemics. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 129.9.163.106 (talk) 17:10, 24 October 2007 (UTC)

I disagree - there are several sources citing that the Spanish flu was particularly lethal from well before anything was said about avian flu. Some sources: [2], [3], [4] just from a quick google search. Note also two are from before the Avian Flu rumours started. It's quite well documented of it's severity. I believe the reason it wasn't in the press more widely was at the time press agencies were heavily influenced by their governments due to the ongoing war, and as such had strict orders what to print. 144.32.155.184 00:16, 16 November 2007 (UTC)

I agree about the wartime secrecy being the primary reason it wasn't more widely reported at the time. The main reason it is known as the "Spanish Flu" is that Spain was neutral during WWI and did not need to censor this information. In fact, there is strong evidence that it originated (in its pandemic form) in Kansas, and certainly did not originate in Spain.Frankceo (talk) 18:09, 23 December 2007 (UTC)

Pandemics and notable epidemics through history

Pandemics and notable epidemics through history should be moved to the same article section in the "epidemic"-article.

I think that would make better sense. Working in the meantime on trying to improve the epidemic-article. KVDP (talk) 17:54, 7 February 2008 (UTC)

Protection

Hiberniantears semi-protected page but put no sign/template thing at the top, so I did.—Wikimichael22 (talk) 05:24, 20 November 2008 (UTC)

Why is this page protected?67.142.162.24 (talk) 20:48, 20 November 2009 (UTC)

Inconsistent figures?

From this article: "The "Spanish flu"... eventually infected 2.5 to 5% of the human population, with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent"; ... compare with the opening of Spanish flu, which says "The pandemic is estimated to have infected up to one billion people: half the world's population at the time.[8]" Which is correct? Gzabers (talk) 19:38, 26 April 2009 (UTC)

No one knows. Recent numbers are better than estimates from even a couple years ago. WAS 4.250 (talk) 23:55, 26 April 2009 (UTC)

Ebola virus and other quickly lethal diseases

For clarity sake the section titled "Ebola virus and other quickly lethal diseases" should be retitled "Viral Hemorrhagic Fever", since all examples given are VHF. Either that or insert non-VHF examples into paragraph. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 165.112.61.190 (talk) 15:37, 28 April 2009 (UTC)

I don't know that I can agree with that. Viral hemorrhagic fever as it's described in the article is the anatomically systemic disease caused by Ebola. The symptoms of Ebola vary, although systemically it all seems to amount to VHF. On the other hand, Ebola is not the only disease causing agent that can cause a hemorrhagic fever. It is, however, the one such disease that is thought to present a grave public health concern. I would say that would make it all the more important to distinguish that this is Ebola that they're talking about. 68.55.199.40 (talk) 17:36, 16 July 2009 (UTC)

phases

image:WHO pandemic phases.png should be added to this article. 76.66.202.139 (talk) 10:20, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

Where, and what would the caption be? Hiding T 11:29, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

Well since this particular table has been modified to specifically refer to Influenza, I suppose at the influenza section would be good. The caption would be "WHO influenza pandemic alert phases" 76.66.202.139 (talk) 13:54, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

Resolved: done. Hiding T 09:54, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

There is a terrific stages graphic at http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upload/usg_who.jpg

Compares WHO, CDC, and USG stages, mentions pre-pandemic, e.g., investigation —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.166.205.155 (talk) 00:27, 6 May 2009 (UTC)

Smallpox subsection in need of revision

The statement "The disease killed an estimated 400,000 Europeans each year during the 18th century." is inaccurate, and is not true to it's referring article. The referring article indicates that, in fact, during the latter years of the 18th century, the disease was killing an estimated 400,000 people per year. The statement from the referring article does not attempt to approximate the average deaths per year during the entire century.

I propose this sentence instead "The disease killed an estimated 400,000 Europeans per year during the closing years of the 18th century." —Preceding unsigned comment added by Danjgregory (talk • contribs) 01:30, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

Pandemics in Fiction section incorrect

{{editsemiprotected}} The Pandemics in Fiction section has listed "The Road (2006), a post-apocalyptic fiction by Cormac McCarthy", but this book has nothing to do with pandemics at all. Please delete it.

Done Celestra (talk) 19:18, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

The movie "Outbreak" had the entire infected population of Type-2 Motaba isolated to one small town. As such, it could not be considered a pandemic, and should be removed from this list.

28 Days Later should also be removed from the list by someone since it is an example of an epidemic and not a pandemic. The Rage virus is isolated to the British Isle. Only in the sequel 28 weeks later do we see an outbreak in mainland Europe. 165.112.61.190 (talk) 15:00, 11 June 2009 (UTC)

Influenza

Should a note be included on this page that "influenza pandemic" is a specific term seperate from pandemic as it relates to other diseases.

Influenza seasonally occurs as a pandemic (widespread/global disease transferrance) every year (see seasonal influenza). Whereas an influenza pandemic specifically refers to a human disaster scenario whereby a new strain of influenza manages to emerge (often outside of the regular flu season), often with a high and/or atypical mortality/morbidity profile.--ZayZayEM (talk) 01:18, 5 May 2009 (UTC)

What About the Other STDs?

Chlamydia, Gonorrhea, and Herpes cases are far more prevalent than HIV infection. In the U.S. alone we're talking about 20 million new cases a year. And, there's no Shangri La country that's untouched by these diseases. 68.55.199.40 (talk) 05:48, 15 July 2009 (UTC)

More recent pandemics include the HIV pandemic and the 2009 flu pandemic.

Can someone either delete this sentence or cite a credible source for this please? Or at least mention in the sentence "according to..."? --Fenvoe (talk) 15:39, 4 August 2009 (UTC)

Pandemic ?

A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν pan "all" + δῆμος demos "people") is an epidemic of infectious disease that is spreading through human populations across a large region; for instance a continent, or even worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics exclude seasonal flu.[citation needed]

Well: if pandemic means 'spread on a large area', say several continents, then, YES: sesonal flu are low-lethal level PANDEMICS. If seasonal flu are relatively not famous, they are, indeed, pandemic: "spreading on continent(s)". Yug (talk) 05:31, 9 November 2009 (UTC)

Suggestion for Pandemics in fiction

I'm not as of yet confirmed to edit semi-protected articles, but I just thought I'd suggest Stephen King's The Stand for the Pandemic#Pandemics in fiction section. Thanks in advance if you do so. --Akirasfriend (talk) 00:53, 19 November 2009 (UTC)

Y Done --NeilN ^{talk ♦ contribs} 01:08, 19 November 2009 (UTC)

Definition

3 criterias are mentioned, and true, this is what the WHO says today. However, they did have another criteria before, see internet archive here: An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus appears against which the human population has no immunity, resulting in several, simultaneous epidemics worldwide with enormous numbers of deaths and illness.

Also its something —Preceding unsigned comment added by Cjpman456 (talk • contribs) 22:04, 12 January 2010 (UTC)

Kricke (talk) 01:41, 4 December 2009 (UTC)

Der Spiegel has an interview with epidemiologist Tom Jefferson in which he points this fact out, so this provides a WP:RS for adding this information to this article. cojoco (talk) 00:02, 21 January 2010 (UTC)

So I've added it. cojoco (talk) 01:00, 21 January 2010 (UTC)

Plague inconsistency?

This article states that the Plague of Justinian was the first recorded outbreak of bubonic plague. However, the table at List of epidemics shows bubonic plague as a possible cause of the Egyptian epidemic of 1400 BC. Issues:

• Neither item is sourced.
• If plague was the source of the Egyptian epidemic, how was that not an "outbreak"? (That is, does "outbreak", as used here, refer to some specific technical characteristic?)

Jmacwiki (talk) 03:42, 25 June 2011 (UTC)

• unsourced information should be ignored, and where appropriate deleted. That said, I think the meaning is that 1400 BC in Egyptian may have been plague, but the Justinian outbreak was definitely the cause of plague. Remember wikipedia is written by lots of different editors who don't cross-reference stuff. Find an error - research and fix it.ZayZayEM (talk) 01:14, 27 June 2011 (UTC)

plans

i suggest a section on government plans in case of a pandemic. Jake1993811 (talk) 09:38, 30 December 2011 (UTC)