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Currently, assorted media are carrying stories about RQ36. They quote an impact probability of "approximately 1 in a thousand". These stories are based an interview and a press release by Maria Eugenia Sansaturio, who is reporting the results from the Milani et al. paper that is already cited in the article. The Milani et al. paper is the primary source, and is more accurate than the sound-bites in the secondary stories - for example, it includes a discussion of the Yarkovsky force on RQ36, which dominates the uncertainty in the object's trajectory.
The radar-derived shape model of RQ36 is still awaiting publication. When it is available, the impact forecast will be significantly improved. Michaelbusch (talk) 15:21, 28 July 2010 (UTC)
Something about this new media blitz needs to be included. Sattmaster (talk) 23:26, 18 August 2010 (UTC)