Talk:2013 TV135

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Media coverage[edit]

This looks like it could be getting some more attention in the coming days. Looks like the odds of impact are pretty slim though; 1 in 63,000.http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-astronomers-asteroid-earth-20131017,0,7912661.storyCheerioswithmilk (talk) 23:42, 17 October 2013 (UTC)

Given that the nominal distance to the asteroid in August 2032 is currently 1.18 AU from Earth, I expect this asteroid's odds of impact to quickly drop to less than 1 in a million. -- Kheider (talk) 03:57, 18 October 2013 (UTC)

Uncertainty region[edit]

  • JPL 2: With a short observation arc of 7 days, it had about a 1 in 63,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. (Nominal distance on 26 Aug 2032: 1.18AU)
  • JPL 3: With a short observation arc of 9 days, it had about a 1 in 48,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. (Nominal distance: 1.73AU)
  • JPL 4: Horizons Nominal = 0.12AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.28AU for August 26, 2032 distance.
  • JPL 5: With a short observation arc of 10 days, it had about a 1 in 14,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. (Nominal distance: 0.28AU; closest approach=2032-Jul-31@0.2AU)
  • JPL 6: With a short observation arc of 11 days, NEODyS and (JPL 6) showed the Nominal distance as 0.60AU on 26 August 2032. NEODyS peaked at 1:3800.
  • JPL 7: With a short observation arc of 12 days, it had about a 1 in 19,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. Horizons Nominal = 0.70AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.65AU. NEODyS PS=−0.86
  • JPL 8 (Oct 22): 13 day arc Sentry = 1:16,000 / NEODyS = 1:8,200. Horizons Nominal = 0.70AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.58AU. NEODyS PS=−0.88
  • JPL 9 (Oct 23): 14 day arc Sentry = 1:10,000 / NEODyS = 1:5,080. Horizons Nominal = 0.37AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.35AU. NEODyS PS=−0.65
  • JPL 10 (Oct 24): 15 day arc Sentry = 1:11,000 / NEODyS = 1:6,170. Horizons Nominal = 0.41AU (closest approach=2032-Oct-28@0.17AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.39AU. NEODyS PS=−0.74
  • JPL 11 (Oct 25): 16 day arc Sentry = 1:21,000 / NEODyS = 1:9,800. Horizons Nominal = 0.55AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-08@0.28AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.53AU (closest approach=2032/10/27@0.16AU). NEODyS PS=−0.95
  • JPL 12 (Oct 26): 17 day arc. Horizons Nominal = 0.68AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-15@0.38AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.60AU. NEODyS PS=−1.07
  • JPL 13 (Oct 26): 17 day arc Sentry = 1:32,000 / NEODyS = 1:14,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.76AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-19@0.46AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.60AU. NEODyS PS=−1.07
  • JPL 14 (Oct 27): 18 day arc Sentry = 1:29,000 / NEODyS = 1:13,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.70AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-16@0.41AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.56AU. NEODyS PS=−1.06
  • JPL 16 (Oct 29): 20 day arc NEODyS = 9.42e-5@1:11,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.57AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-09@0.29AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.47AU. NEODyS PS=−0.97.
  • JPL 17 (Oct 29): 20 day arc. Horizons Nominal = 0.66AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-14@0.36AU)
  • JPL 18 (Oct 30): 21 day arc Sentry = 1:22,000 / NEODyS = 1:6,670. Horizons Nominal = 0.44AU (closest approach=2032-Oct-31@0.19AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.34AU (closest approach=2032/10/22@0.12AU). NEODyS PS=−0.77.
  • JPL 20 (Oct 31): 23 day arc Sentry = 1:6,250 / NEODyS = 1:4,330. Horizons Nominal = 0.14AU (closest approach=2032-Sep-19@0.06AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.16AU (closest approach=2032/08/08.87@0.10AU). NEODyS PS=−0.58.
  • JPL 21 (Nov 1): 23 day arc NEODyS = 2.20e-4@1:4,550. Horizons Nominal = 0.06AU (closest approach=2032-Sep-04@0.03AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.20AU (closest approach=2032/08/06@0.13AU). NEODyS PS=−0.60.
  • JPL 24 (Nov 2): 21 day arc (2013-10-12 to 2013-11-02) Sentry = 1:43,000 / NEODyS = 1:15,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.67AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-12@0.50AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.36AU (closest approach=2032/07/27@0.26AU). NEODyS PS=−1.14.
  • JPL 25 (Nov 2): 21 day arc (2013-10-12 to 2013-11-02) Sentry = 1:53,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.62AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-14@0.45AU)
  • JPL 26 (Nov 3): 21 day arc Sentry = 1:132,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.53AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-18@0.38AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.41AU (closest approach=2032/07/24@0.29AU).
  • JPL 28 (Nov 3): 21 day arc Sentry = 1:345,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.57AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-16@0.42AU).
  • JPL 29 (Nov 4): 22 day arc Sentry = 1:20,833,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.65AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-13@0.48AU).
  • JPL 30 (Nov 5): 22 day arc Sentry = 1:28,571,000 / NEODyS = 1:11,962,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.66AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-12@0.49AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.51AU (closest approach=2032/07/19@0.37AU). NEODyS PS=−4.03.
  • JPL 31 (Nov 7): 26 day arc Sentry = 1:169,492,000 / NEODyS = 1:5,495,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.59AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-15@0.43AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.59AU (closest approach=2032/07/16@0.43AU). NEODyS PS=−3.69.
  • JPL 32 (Nov 8): 27 day arc Sentry = REMOVED / NEODyS = REMOVED. Horizons Nominal = 0.58AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-16@0.43AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.50AU (closest approach=2032/07/20@0.36AU).
  • JPL 33 (Nov 9): 27 day arc Horizons Nominal = 0.61AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-15@0.45AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.54AU (closest approach=2032/07/18@0.39AU).

(The odds of an impact are only going up because the uncertainty regions containing Earth and the asteroid in August 2032 are getting smaller. Once Earth is no longer inside of the asteroid's uncertainty region the odds will be zero.) -- Kheider (talk) 18:49, 18 October 2013 (UTC)

  • It seems blindly optimistic to assume that as there are more observations the chances of an impact can only decrease. Additional observations might rule out an impact, but how can anyone be sure they will not trend toward increasing chances of an impact? Edison (talk) 00:15, 22 October 2013 (UTC)
Given that the nominal orbit is starting to settle down with the closest approach being in the ballpark of 0.5AU from Earth on 26 August 2013, there is little reason to assume that future projections will exceed 1:3800. But you are correct, it is not certain. If the odds are ever greater than 1:3800 the article can then be updated accordingly. The odds of an impact are a function of the uncertainty region and how close Earth is to the nominal orbit of the asteroid. -- Kheider (talk) 01:08, 22 October 2013 (UTC)
As the closest predicted approach drops to .06AU per observations of 31 Oct 2013. Ah well, a wise old psych professor and WW2 veteran said "Close only counts for horse shoes and hand grenades." Edison (talk) 03:12, 1 November 2013 (UTC)

archive.is version[edit]

The better referenced 10 February 2014 archive.is version can be seen here. -- Kheider (talk) 07:44, 26 June 2014 (UTC)