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Given that the nominal distance to the asteroid in August 2032 is currently 1.18 AU from Earth, I expect this asteroid's odds of impact to quickly drop to less than 1 in a million. -- Kheider (talk) 03:57, 18 October 2013 (UTC)
(The odds of an impact are only going up because the uncertainty regions containing Earth and the asteroid in August 2032 are getting smaller. Once Earth is no longer inside of the asteroid's uncertainty region the odds will be zero.) -- Kheider (talk) 18:49, 18 October 2013 (UTC)
It seems blindly optimistic to assume that as there are more observations the chances of an impact can only decrease. Additional observations might rule out an impact, but how can anyone be sure they will not trend toward increasing chances of an impact? Edison (talk) 00:15, 22 October 2013 (UTC)
Given that the nominal orbit is starting to settle down with the closest approach being in the ballpark of 0.5AU from Earth on 26 August 2013, there is little reason to assume that future projections will exceed 1:3800. But you are correct, it is not certain. If the odds are ever greater than 1:3800 the article can then be updated accordingly. The odds of an impact are a function of the uncertainty region and how close Earth is to the nominal orbit of the asteroid. -- Kheider (talk) 01:08, 22 October 2013 (UTC)
As the closest predicted approach drops to .06AU per observations of 31 Oct 2013. Ah well, a wise old psych professor and WW2 veteran said "Close only counts for horse shoes and hand grenades." Edison (talk) 03:12, 1 November 2013 (UTC)