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Hi there. Please check out my section in the talk page of ISIL. They claim lands in Iraq and Syria.elmasmelih (used to be KazekageTR) 16:33, 12 June 2014 (UTC)
It's been discussed several times before. On this list, we need evidence either of diplomatic recognition by a UN member, or that some outside authority or reliable source considers it a state according to the declarative theory of statehood. In the latter case, that means that the source has to actually apply the theory - Wikipedians' interpretations of whether the theory is met or not do not count. Kahastoktalk 17:41, 12 June 2014 (UTC)
Thanks mate, you've enlightened me.elmasmelih (used to be KazekageTR) 18:33, 12 June 2014 (UTC)
This expert opinion definitivly says it's an unrecognized state. “It also runs the equivalent of a state. It has all the trappings of a state, just not an internationally recognized one.” I found another article where the theory is applied and the decision is "unlike Al-Qaeda, ISIS is on its way to controlling a quasi-state, exercising de facto sovereignty over a territory, even if unrecognized by the international community." So, it looks like it's a little premature to declare it a state, however it looks like that's what is happening. The last condition of "declarative statehood" is having relations with other countries. That's yet to be seen. - Technophant (talk) 19:56, 15 June 2014 (UTC)
This article (which apparently now needs a log-in) also indicates that ISIS is becoming at least a quasi-state. Blaylockjam10 (talk) 03:01, 17 June 2014 (UTC)
I would note, that war is a political relatiohship between countries and thus can count as satisfying the capacity to enter relations criterion.XavierGreen (talk) 21:15, 17 June 2014 (UTC)
The opening line of our entry on war states that "War is an organized and often prolonged conflict that is carried out by states or non-state actors." For what it's worth, though, I wouldn't oppose this being added. Super Nintendo Chalmers (talk) 08:13, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
Should ISIS be added to the "Non-UN member states not recognised by any state" section? Blaylockjam10 (talk) 04:36, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
<Reduce indent> A useful list of ISIS related sources here at Progressive Geographies. The summary suggests that some scholars are beginning to recognize it as a state. We have multiple independent sources - for me this is one to add. --Super Nintendo Chalmers (talk) 08:17, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
Here is an article (in Arabic) by France 24 which says that " ISIS has "the elements and resources of a real state" 3bdulelah (talk) 13:18, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
Given how many sources there are, I don't why it shouldn't be added. Blaylockjam10 (talk) 17:12, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
I agree that ISIS should definitely be mentioned in the article at least. Supersaiyen312 (talk) 18:05, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
Do any of the sources mention the declarative theory of statehood or the Montevideo Convention? I haven't seen it in any of them, but I may have missed it? I think we should be aiming for something more explicit than a blog saying "all the trappings of statehood" (even if it's the blog of the Washington Post's Beirut bureau chief). The sources seem to say "quasi-state", not "state". Kahastoktalk 20:53, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
"Quasi-state" is synonymous with our "state with limited recognition". It's a term often used to describe the entities listed on this page. No-one's discussing the Montevideo convention in those words, but they are saying it is providing some form of internal governance. Not much detail yet that I've seen, so I'm still not sure on this addition, but the sourcing is definitely growing stronger. CMD (talk) 02:47, 19 June 2014 (UTC)
While I concur that the sources are starting to move towards where we need them, most are still hedging their claims with qualifications like "equivalent of a state" or "on its way to". There is WP:NODEADLINE, so we should hold off adding them until there are sources which make clear, concrete conclusions on their statehood. It's better to be a bit slow than to be early and wrong. TDL (talk) 07:20, 19 June 2014 (UTC)
I agree, we're getting nearer, but aren't there yet. I would note that I find it difficult to see we can say that a state satisfies the declarative theory, without a source that says so (or at least mentions Montevideo). With such a source we can be absolutely clear that the author has considered the point in terms of the declarative theory. Kahastoktalk 17:28, 19 June 2014 (UTC)
Why then Azawad and Bangsamoro Republik where added without a reliable source considers it a state according to the declarative theory of statehood? + can u give a "reliable source" that consider Nagorno-Karabakh Republic a state according to that theory because I couldn't find one for the three republics.3bdulelah (talk) 01:54, 20 June 2014 (UTC)
ISIL was declared before September 2013 and it wasn't included at that time 3bdulelah (talk) 16:04, 20 June 2014 (UTC)
When ISIL was originally declared as the ISI it was as an alternative government to that of the iraqi government and would not have qualified for the list even if it controlled territory, once it changed to ISIS it expanded its claimed territory to most of syria as well as iraq and became a different state than that of iraq since it claims both syria and iraq.XavierGreen (talk) 23:57, 22 June 2014 (UTC)
It would be considered as alternative government if it was claiming the hole Iraqi territory but as u know they only claimed Arab Sunni territory 3bdulelah (talk) 18:32, 23 June 2014 (UTC)
The end of the article explicitly excludes state that are in a state of civil war. ISIL clearly is in this category and can be excluded on this argument. Ego White Tray (talk) 20:41, 26 June 2014 (UTC)
The civil war is in Syria and Iraq not in ISIL which claim some parts of Iraq and Syria. Somalia is in civil war but Somaliland is included because the war is in all Somalia not only in Somaliland. 3bdulelah (talk) 06:50, 28 June 2014 (UTC)
Somaliland doesn't get caught by that exception because it has been stable for decades on end. It is not credible to say that "the conflict is still in its active phase, the situation is too rapidly changing and no relatively stable rump states have emerged yet" in the case of Somaliland. It is certainly credible to say that with respect to ISIS at present - your claim that ISIS is not in any way involved in the crises in Syria and Iraq is not remotely tenable.
We can go further than that, though, Somaliland has been widely described as an example of an unrecognised state by academics. At present it is pretty much the archetypal example. We have academic evidence applying the declarative theory explicitly to Somaliland and finding that it is met. At present, we do not yet have the evidence that there is even a "temporary alignment with the inclusion criteria" that would make it make a difference. Kahastoktalk 14:55, 28 June 2014 (UTC)
Not unless the ISIS still exists after the region is stabilized=. Ego White Tray (talk) 17:48, 3 July 2014 (UTC)
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ I've done a search for webpages discussing the Montevideo Convention and ISIS. Here's two opinions:
Conclusion; On conditions 1 and 2, claimed but uncertain. "While there are no temporal requirements for control of population or territory (emphasis added) when these are combined with the other two elements of Montevideo some form of long-term governance does appear necessary." On claim 3, government "Currently it is unclear as to whether Isis would meet such a standard." On claim 4, relations, "For Isis this criteria does appear lacking if social media is discounted."
Conclusion - On condition 1 and 2: "However, given the existing states' recognized political boundaries, massive refugee flows in and out of the various areas of this region, and the ongoing fighting over territory between ISIS and the Iraqi army, among other factors, it certainly cannot be said that the new caliphate has a permanent population or a defined territory." On condition 3 and 4: "Its ability to function effectively as a government, rather than a militant group, and to engage in relations with other states remains to be seen."
The Islamic State does seem to be effectively forming a governing body and beginning to form relations with other states however. In this article by Daily Star states “In Raqqa, ISIS has offices for everything you can imagine: health, education, security, Islamic aid, tribal relations management, and even an embassy of the emirate of Aleppo.” I think it's just a matter of time until the experts acknowledge that the conditions are met. - Technophant (talk) 20:56, 6 July 2014 (UTC)
One thing nobody has brought up, is that it is too early to show a permanent population, which is required in the declarative theory of statehood. There are thousands of people fleeing, and I think evidence of large groups of civilians accepting them as a government over a given period of time, as has happened in Somaliland is one of the most important pieces. There are no stable/peaceful civilian areas in the IS right now.Pangeanempire (talk) 14:19, 15 July 2014 (UTC)
If consensus does turn out against ISIL inclusion, would it be appropriate to list it in the excluded entities section? Ladril (talk) 21:10, 28 July 2014 (UTC)
I do not believe that the title of this page accuratly describes its contents. I understand that states such as the Federal States of New Russia and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant do not meet declarative theory, but are they not states with limited recognition? I think this page should include a category for any state with de facto control over an area. Any thoughts? -OBCPO
<reduce indent> I sympathize with this issue. I think that if academics or journalists (the latter in reliable, substantive pieces addressing the issue, not with passing mention) call something a sovereign state, and treat something like a sovereign state, then we should be comfortable listing it, whether or not this definition is explicitly made in relation to the declarative theory. What's important is that we have proper sources mentioning statehood.
I have no problem with the active conflict exclusion - initial control over land during a war is not the same as having developed territorial control. Super Nintendo Chalmers (talk) 08:10, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
3) They have their governments (you can take a look at their self titled presidents)
4) They have capacity to enter into relations with other states (they have been recognized by South Ossetia and made truce/ceasefire agreements with Ukraine etc.)
So what is the problem in putting them on that list? elmasmelih (used to be KazekageTR) 21:58, 29 June 2014 (UTC)
The problem with the 'Declarative Theory' is it is a person's WP:POV Who gives the final say if these countries meet it or not? If it is editors here on Wikipedia then it is a problem. I mean Is someone eyeballing the map and saying "Yup I think this country's boundary looks good"? - Knowledgekid87 (talk) 22:01, 29 June 2014 (UTC)
Do you have any reliable sources that say that it meets the Declarative theory? If not, then it is WP:ORIGINALRESEARCH. TDL (talk) 22:04, 29 June 2014 (UTC)
Oh I agree entirely, however any suggestions I make saying this are immediately removed because I can't find an article specifically stating that ISIL, Novorossiya, etc. meet declarative theory. Not that one could find ANY article saying this about ANY country.... Also, it says this at the bottom of the page: "Those areas undergoing current civil wars and other situations with problems over government succession, regardless of temporary alignment with the inclusion criteria (by having control over permanently populated territory or by receiving recognition as state or legitimate government), where the conflict is still in its active phase, the situation is too rapidly changing and no relatively stable rump states have emerged yet." -OBCPO
The active conflict exclusion refers only to competing governments (ie: countries with government succession problems) were two governments hold territory and yet claim to be the same state. Separatist governments (those that do not claim to be the same state as there predecessor are not covered under this exclusion. As for the declarative theory, an objective political scientist would say that the breakaway separatist states meet the declarative theory. Unfortunately, some of the folks around here are rather strict in what they regard as a reliable source, and want a source applying the theory in detail.XavierGreen (talk) 02:35, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
Yes, exactly Xavier! It seems the vast majority of us feel the same way as you and I. I challenge our opposition to find an article that says ANY country meets declarative theory, and that says it as specifically as an article they demand from us. -OBCPO — Preceding unsigned comment added by 126.96.36.199 (talk) 02:50, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
@OBCPO1: There are already such sources in the article, for example:
Hello, this is OBCPO. I am not sure what you are trying to prove with these. I never said anything about Somaliland. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 188.8.131.52 (talk) 20:10, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
@OBCPO1: You asked me to "find an article that says ANY country meets declarative theory". These are two sources which say that Transnistria, Nagorny Karabakh, and Somaliland meet the declarative theory. TDL (talk) 20:28, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
@Danlaycock: Right, thank you. I was curious if such sources existed, as I could not find any reliable ones. Sorry for not reading the sources when you first posted them. Thanks! OBCPO1 (talk) 01:29, 1 July 2014 (UTC)
XavierGreen's comments are rather disingenuous. No one has even provided a single source, reliable or otherwise, that so much as mentions the declarative theory and any of the proposed entities in the same article. To suggest that mentioning the two words in the same article is "applying the theory in detail" is rather laughable. All that has been provided is editors personal hypotheses on what "an objective political scientist would say". Such opinions are not acceptable in a serious encyclopedia because wikipedia editors are not reliable sources. If you think this claim is true, then show me an "an objective political scientist" who says such things and I will support inclusion. But postulating it is true, without any evidence to back it up, is pure speculation.
And no, as explained above the active conflict exclusion does not only apply to cases of succession. That is why there is an "and" in the sentence. TDL (talk) 07:01, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
They are not at all disingenuous, you and one or two others want detailed analysis of the theory applied to each entity. If an objective political scientist applied the theory, they would each be considered states as the elements of the theory are present in each case. Anyone can do a google search and find dozens upon dozens of articles calling the entities in questions states.
As for the "active conflict" rule, the word "and" limits the scope of the rule to government succession problems (ie: where two entities claim to be the same state) because the word "other" follows it. Thus when read like a statute or rule (which it is in essence on governing the page) applying the principle of noscitur a sociis (a word is known by the company it keeps) the rule is clearly limited to government succession problems and does not include break away states, which are an entire beast in themselves. The rule would not apply to the entities in question, unless you want to argue that Donetsk and or Luhansk claim to be the legitimate government of all Ukraine which would be a laughable assertion. Furthermore, if you look back at the relevant archives on the list of sovereign states page, one would clearly see that the purpose of the rule was to exclude entities with government succession problems that temporarily met the criteria (ie specifically the Libyan Transitional Authority) there is no discussion whatsoever of the rule being applied to separatist states that claim to be separate legal entities from their former "mother countries". Any suggestion to the contrary is entirely disingenuous on your part and misrepresentative of the facts at hand.XavierGreen (talk) 14:06, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
Actually what I want you to do is the opposite of "detailed analysis of the theory applied to each entity". I don't want you to do any analysis of the theory at all.
If there were sources that said, Donetsk and Luhansk are states according to the Montevideo Convention/declarative theory of statehood, that would go a very long way toward demonstrating that they belong on this list. It isn't a particularly high standard. And yet nobody has ever found any source that comes even close to it.
If, as you claim, "[i]f an objective political scientist applied the theory, they would each be considered states as the elements of the theory are present in each case", it should be trivial to find one. We as Wikipedia editors are patently not qualified to apply the theory per WP:NOR. It is not Wikipedia's job to interpret what "objective" fact is in a realm such as political science.
I do not propose to discuss the "active conflict" rule, beyond noting that I do not accept your interpretation, because it makes no difference in this case as there is no alignment with the inclusion criteria. Kahastoktalk 16:58, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
Hello Kahastok, this is OBCPO. Please find a source saying ANY state on this page satisfies the declarative theory of statehood. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 184.108.40.206 (talk) 20:21, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
You've already had two from TDL above, and between them they cover every state on this list that needs such a source (because all the others are recognised by at least one UN member state). Kahastoktalk 22:33, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
So we just have to wait for an article or a book to be written about Donetsk and Lugansk PP's foreign or interior relationships, right!? Those two actually meet the criteria but you just want a sentence that includes 'Donetsk and Lugansk PP meets the Declarative Theory' from a scientist, researcher or a reporter. Mate, its time to gather on common grounds now or things will be like 'the story of the two goats'. elmasmelih (used to be KazekageTR) 22:39, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
In regards to Kahastok's above statement, it is not trivial to find a scholarly political science article regarding anything that has happened recently. Rather in fact it is quite an undertaking to get something published in a journal. For virtually any journal of note, one first has to get the article peer reviewed at a conference which are not all that frequent (at most quarterly per journal). And it makes a ton of difference as to the interpretation of the "active conflict" rule. If i didnt say something, its very likely that 6 months from now when it potentially does matter one of you would have gone back and said "oh there was consensus that this was the interpretation because no one objected". I've seen some of you do it before, and i'm making it clear that there is no consensus hear for a "new" interpretation of the "active conflict" rule so that it excludes separatist states. Its an entirely bogus reading that has no basis in the original conversation that lead to its implementation in the first place.XavierGreen (talk) 23:32, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
XavierGreen, you are either being extremely disingenuous or you've completely failed to grasp the points being made to you over and over again. As Kahastok explained, no one has ever asked for "detailed analysis of the theory applied to each entity". A single sentence which says something along the lines of "Donetsk meets the declarative theory of statehood" would be perfectly acceptable. If you think 7 words constitutes a "detailed analysis" then you have a very strange understanding of the words "detailed" and "analysis" indeed. I don't think any reasonable person would think 7 words constitutes a "detailed analysis". And who said anything about only scholarly political science articles being acceptable? Certainly not Kahastok nor I. If some scholar made the statement in an interview to a newspaper, that would be more than fine in my opinion. Newspapers come out daily.
Basically, your argument comes down to that it's too hard to find a source so we should just ignore WP:V and WP:OR and try to guess what RS would say if they did exist. Clearly that isn't acceptable in a serious encyclopedia. If it takes 6 months for sources to evaluate the situation, then we'll just have to wait. There is WP:NODEADLINE.
As for your "unique" interpretation of the "active conflict" rule, you have assumed (without any basis) that "government succession" only applies to the succession of sovereign governments. There is, of course, a "government succession" problem from the Donetsk Oblast to the PRD. TDL (talk) 01:05, 1 July 2014 (UTC)
Is there anyone opposed to making a new category on this page listing unrecognized de facto states that hold territory? I would hate to spend a lot of time making a new section to have it deleted. — Preceding unsigned comment added by OBCPO1 (talk • contribs) 01:33, 1 July 2014 (UTC)
I agree with XavierGreen on this one. Demanding explicit reference to the Montevideo criteria seems to me like an unreasonable demand. I think secondary sources referring to any kind of de facto statehood should be enough. If I think about WP:COMMONSENSE and what readers will expect from this article, I feel like states with clear de facto control (like the Islamic State and MAYBE Donetsk or Luhansk) should be included. Let me make clear that I HIGHLY RESPECT TDL, CMD, and Kahastok (etc.) for maintaining a voice of reason in this article and others; but how many voices do we need before we can consider there no longer to be a consensus on the status quo? GeoEvan (talk) 19:26, 19 July 2014 (UTC)
Agreed as well, if sources are reporting about this widespread how many more opinions do we need? - Knowledgekid87 (talk) 19:35, 19 July 2014 (UTC)
But the point is that it's a question of scope. By definition this article isn't a list of entities with "de facto statehood". It is a list of entities which are considered to be a sovereign state under international law. If we want to use a technical term like "sovereign state" we need to be sure we follow the academic consensus on it's usage. Rebel groups which have tenuous control over territory, but which don't have a legitimate claim to statehood under international law, are out of scope of this article. The only way to draw a line between such groups and sovereign states is to insist on sources which demonstrate a legitimate claim to statehood under international law.
The key difference is that the entities you have listed (ie the houthis, KIA, al shabab, ect) have not declared independence and thus cannot meet the declarative theory while Donetsk and Luhansk clearly have declared independence and meet criteria set forth under the theory.XavierGreen (talk) 20:58, 20 July 2014 (UTC)
Also, Donetsk and Lugansk have both received limited recognition and should be listed under the "Non-UN member states recognised only by non-UN members" section (NKR & PMR). [Soffredo] 15:02, 26 July 2014 (UTC)
Agree with XavierGreen. This list would best serve readers by listing entities with de facto statehood PLUS declarations of sovereignty separate from existing states. Insisting on a strict legal interpretation seems like overkill, especially when no one is suggesting we restrict our sources to formal legal opinions. GeoEvan (talk) 05:59, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
I've started a poll at the talk page for List of sovereign states. You can find the poll here. We're discussing the inclusion of the Islamic State, the Donetsk People's Republic, and the Lugansk People's Republic. [Soffredo] 18:24, 26 July 2014 (UTC)