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I've marked this article as Unreferenced. Wikipedia articles must cite reliable sources of their information. This Citation Wizard will help to correctly format citations of various types of sources: Downstrike (talk) 00:01, 26 October 2011 (UTC)
Interestingly the BBC show "10 things you didn't know about earthquakes" the 9th section supports the there was a model that predicted the izmit quake. Not sure how to cite TV shows, it says 'Jeffrey King and his group of scientists' built the 'working' stress model of the North Anatolian fault. So presumable a google scholar search should find the actual data.EdwardLane (talk) 10:50, 6 April 2013 (UTC)
A TV show is not a sufficient reference for this sort of assertion. If the earthquake was "predicted" by credible scientists, there will be at least one paper on the topic in the scientific literature. Most of the work I have seen on the Anatolian fault did not "predict" particular earthquakes so much as map which segments were loaded by previous earthquakes, making them statistically more likely to slip. This level of statistical knowledge helps the insurance actuaries and maybe even the city planners, but is not the kind of temporally specific projection the public expects when you use the word "prediction". Some older (1990's) papers are available on the USGS website. Elriana (talk) 21:10, 28 June 2013 (UTC)
this looks interesting - written in 1997 (so before the 1999 quake) here's a quote from the abstract
Stress is now calculated to be high at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15% probability of a M≥6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern center of Erzincan, and a 12% probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations...