Talk:North Anatolian Fault

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
WikiProject Earthquakes (Rated Start-class, High-importance)
WikiProject icon This article is part of WikiProject Earthquakes, a project to systematically present information on earthquakes, seismology, plate tectonics, and related subjects. If you would like to participate, you can choose to edit the article attached to this page (see Wikipedia:Contributing FAQ for more information), or join by visiting the project page.
Start-Class article Start  This article has been rated as Start-Class on the project's quality scale.
 High  This article has been rated as High-importance on the project's importance scale.
 
WikiProject Turkey (Rated Start-class, Mid-importance)
WikiProject icon This article is within the scope of WikiProject Turkey, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of Turkey and related topics on Wikipedia. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.
Start-Class article Start  This article has been rated as Start-Class on the project's quality scale.
 Mid  This article has been rated as Mid-importance on the project's importance scale.
 

Comments[edit]

Unreferenced Article[edit]

I've marked this article as Unreferenced. Wikipedia articles must cite reliable sources of their information. This Citation Wizard will help to correctly format citations of various types of sources: Downstrike (talk) 00:01, 26 October 2011 (UTC)

Interestingly the BBC show "10 things you didn't know about earthquakes" the 9th section supports the there was a model that predicted the izmit quake. Not sure how to cite TV shows, it says 'Jeffrey King and his group of scientists' built the 'working' stress model of the North Anatolian fault. So presumable a google scholar search should find the actual data.EdwardLane (talk) 10:50, 6 April 2013 (UTC)
A TV show is not a sufficient reference for this sort of assertion. If the earthquake was "predicted" by credible scientists, there will be at least one paper on the topic in the scientific literature. Most of the work I have seen on the Anatolian fault did not "predict" particular earthquakes so much as map which segments were loaded by previous earthquakes, making them statistically more likely to slip. This level of statistical knowledge helps the insurance actuaries and maybe even the city planners, but is not the kind of temporally specific projection the public expects when you use the word "prediction". Some older (1990's) papers are available on the USGS website. Elriana (talk) 21:10, 28 June 2013 (UTC)
this looks interesting - written in 1997 (so before the 1999 quake) here's a quote from the abstract

Stress is now calculated to be high at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15% probability of a M≥6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern center of Erzincan, and a 12% probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations...

it was in the links I found in this google scholar search. I tried searching under the name 'jeffery king' per the tv show but no info there. EdwardLane (talk) 22:08, 28 June 2013 (UTC)