Talk:Prediction

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Deleting or fixing?[edit]

Wow, this article is crap. I can't see it ever containing anything useful. Anyone mind if I nominate it for deletion? --Doradus 02:53, Dec 15, 2004 (UTC)

It would be well suited for an entry on the Scientific Method, prediction is a bit of a stretch and perhaps a bit misleading. --johnycanal 03:58, Feb 15, 2005 (UTC)
I don't agree. I'm trying to fix the article, but it will take a lot of work. In particular, I don't like the "future topics" section. Much of that should be integrated into the article. --Pablo D. Flores 14:17, 27 Apr 2005 (UTC)

It could use fixing, but come on, who actually has the patience to read "predictions"? -J.H.

Please also consider adding some external links: http://www.longbets.org http://www.zapfuture.com http://www.icalledit.com/forums

Cleaning up the mess (list of topics)[edit]

I'm moving these sections here. The main issues should be integrated into a few short well-wikified paragraphs, maybe following a timeline. {{mainarticle}} should be used for the larger sections. Whatever doesn't fit in running text should be put into a "See also" or "Related" made entirely of relevant links, and containing no more than 8-10 entries if possible. --Pablo D. Flores 14:38, 27 Apr 2005 (UTC)

Future topics[edit]

'Predictions' is a very broad topic. For it to be a credible page, it can be divided better. If someone can use a mind-map to make some sort of outline that would make this page valuable to everyone. For example: Credibility -> Verifiability VS Falsifiability Links Links, etc.. Educated Guess VS Intangible Unprovable Evidence (Even if future) and possibility VS (Pessimism Vs Optimism vs Pygmalion Effect) VS Useful Construct etc.. Also, you can have titles such as 'Predictions In Business' or 'Predictions In Everyday Life(Common Sense, Estimation)' or 'Predictions In Superstition/Insanity/Depression & Pessimism' (Omen, possibly Mechanistic Universe, possibly Ying/Yang) etc.. 218.186.8.12 19:59, 11 December 2006 (UTC)P. J. Claudio

Related topics[edit]

What about statistical forecasting?[edit]

I think it is a big mistake to redirect "Forecasting" to "Prediction". I was hoping to find an article about statistical forecasting which would have inclduded details about many time-series quantitative statistical techniques including exponential-smoothing, ARMA, and the many many more. It was a big disapointment to be re-directed to this article - it is like re-directing enquires about "Astronomy" to an article about "Astrology"!

I have written some more comments about this here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category_talk:Statistics

It is, by the way, more correct to refer to "statistical forecasting" than "statistical prediction" since all the textbooks about this topic that I have seen use the word forecasting in the title rather than the word prediction.

Thanks

fred2

I have applied your suggestions in Forecasting. Also see Predictive analytics
Apdevries 15:19, 2 September 2006 (UTC)

Unnecessary and distracting page[edit]

I agree with the previous correspondent: why is there a page on "prediction" as well as one on "forecasting". This page should be removed or, failing that, links should go from prediction to forecasting but not the other way around. --Kesten 01:07, 16 November 2006 (UTC)

Prediction is just a guess about the future; forecasting, however, uses a more scientific method to arrive at its results. Think outside the box 11:26, 2 March 2007 (UTC)
The term prediction is ok in a religious context. In science the relevant term is forecast. Everything on science should be removed from this article. Gabriel Kielland 16:23, 2 March 2007 (UTC)
Disagree. Forecasts are a branch of the whole concept of predictions. Only, they're made with the help of models, computers or scientific data. But it remains that time is the only way to learn whether they are right or wrong. --Childhood's End 16:54, 2 March 2007 (UTC)


The future as a chaotic system[edit]

If future events may be described as chaos,the chaotic nature of the system may be a basis for a future edit to this article. Since chaos is unpredictable,we cannot predict what events will occur,so we narrow it down to a finite set of events that are plausible. For example,it is plausible that earthquakes will occur near known fault lines,since they have occured there in the past. It's not plausible that flying saucers will land in Nashville to meet with Elvis. Prediction is merely a process of pointing out a future event that is so plausible,it seems likely to occur. For example,suppose Barack Obama gets most of the popular votes in the November election,and he appears to win,but Mc Cain gets enough electoral votes to put himself into the White House. I predict that millions of Blacks all over the country will become angry,and start riots,to protest,because they will feel that Obama had been cheated out of a legitimate political victory. Predicting a riot,like that,is plausible,because riots have occured,for political reasons,in the past. If you read Wikipedia's article on Chaos,it says chaotic systems look unpredictable,but they aren't,they behave according to natural laws. Anthony Ratkov —Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.218.77.191 (talk) 06:18, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

Chaotic systems are not unpredictable -- they are unpredictable over long horizons. Weather is a good example -- predictions out to a few days in the future are extremely accurate. Predictions six months in the future are meaningless. Wikiant (talk) 13:00, 13 October 2008 (UTC)

Article about significant long term predictions in history[edit]

Does an article exist that strictly covers accurate predictions from the distant past that turned out to be true, or one that summarizes the accuracy of various historical futurists? I've been able to find isolated examples, like Newton's prediction of the existence of Neptune, but I remember in school we talked about books people had written from time to time in history that predicted the future of science and society, some more accurate than others - there seems to be a lot of stuff about present day futurists, but what about historical ones? Where should I be looking? Thanks 131.107.0.105 (talk) 17:49, 11 August 2009 (UTC)

what is my feature now,after 10 years? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 112.201.94.245 (talk) 04:39, 23 January 2010 (UTC)

Practical Relationships for Predicting the Future[edit]

We predict the future from moment to moment with high probability of success; so long as our reference frame is a few minutes. Examples: Our intent to go to our car and start the engine, to slow down because of an anticipated bump...

The further out we can make predictions, the greater opportunities are presented to us. A laborer's insights yield them lower pay and Project Managers are paid much higher wages to make predictions on a regular basis; to ensure that a prediction (project) comes to pass. The Space Shuttle was a prediction and great effort was taken to ensure it came to be. Each of the efforts were predictions that were actively acted upon.

Whether or not a prediction occurs because of passive or active intent, does not matter. The prediction was made, and the outcome confirmed (self fulfilling prophecies).

Escalating Opportunities occur when predictions can be made on a consistent basis. Anarchy does not allow for long term predictions because there are no rules. Ethical relationships provides frequent creation of new opportunities because of predictable outcomes.

The following chart provides commonly known relationships, that allow a person to relate thier feelings to predictable outcomes. If they want to have opportunities offered to them, then they need to understand their share of the related responsibilities; mutually being able to predict their future.

The chart corelates many factors in such a way that a person can relate their own experiences to the chart and through Probability Aliasing (reading between the lines), they can make better choices for themselves. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Jamesbdunn (talkcontribs) 10:04, 30 December 2011 (UTC)

Predicting across space rather than time[edit]

I wonder why there is no attention paid to making predictions across space rather than time, such as predicting patterns in data? Isn't it all the same concept?

The forecasting page said 'Prediction' is the more general concept, so I don't think it would be valid to counter that we could just lump spatial prediction under forecasting instead. LegendLength (talk) 03:19, 27 May 2013 (UTC)