Template talk:Impact cratering on Earth

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Threats[edit]

@Ikluft: Why do you think Apophis and 2004VD17 are still "potential threats"? They have been determined to be non-threatening to Earth and downgraded to Torino scale 0 long ago, and I'm not aware of them being under "active observation" any more than other NEOs not listed here. IMO only asteroids with a significantly non-zero impact probability (as determined by a Torino scale level ≥1 or some similar scale) should be listed here. --Roentgenium111 (talk) 19:36, 4 November 2011 (UTC)

The point of the list of potential threats section of the template is not to be a news service. It is to list asteroids which have Wikipedia articles which show this topic is real. Criteria for listing in that section should be broad enough to relevant current topics, not just what JPL currently lists as Torino Scale 1 and above. Everything which has been at Torino Scale 1 now has a history as a significant NEO and remains part of telling the whole story. Apophis in particular has the 2029 "keyhole" issue - it is definitely under active observation to determine whether it will pass through that area which would cause an impact in 2036. Using the guidance from article notability that "notability is not temporary", any asteroid which has been Torino Scale 1 should continue to be considered relevant for that section. After the section fills up, this criteria may be revisited to reduce the total number of items. But for now, please retain everything that is or has been relevant in order to adequately cover the subject. Ikluft (talk) 16:56, 7 November 2011 (UTC)
Of course this is not a news service, but it should still take into account years-old information which make previous infos outdated and incorrect, just as any WP article. And listing objects as "Potential threats" which are now known not to pose an above-average threat at all is just incorrect. So if you want to retain these, the "title" of that list must be changed accordingly, e.g. to "Potential threats and former potential threats" or something like that.
BTW, the "keyhole" threat of Apophis has been rebuked 5 years ago, according to its WP article:
"However, a possibility remained that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole, a precise region in space no more than about a half-mile wide,[6] that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis will pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small."
And note that there are lots of NEOs which had Torino Scale 1 in the past which are not listed here, see the list in Torino_Scale#Downgraded_to_zero. They would certainly "fill up" this section.--Roentgenium111 (talk) 21:27, 13 November 2011 (UTC)
It's hypothetical to talk about the list filling up. It was short, with notable articles listed. It got slashed down to unnecessarily few. "Very small probability" is imprecise language which effectively describes all these NEOs anyway. So let's turn this in a productive direction. Don't take too narrow a view on a template which is intended to help navigate articles relevant to the subject. The ones which are listed have been in the news and are arguably notable by the prior attention they got. Again, use Wikipedia's guidance that notability is not temporary. There can be multiple criteria for relevance to readers of this subject. But the ones which are listed rose to sufficient notability, which does not go away - they should not be removed from the list without consensus about thresholds for being listed. Ikluft (talk) 07:07, 17 November 2011 (UTC)
And Apophis was mentioned in the media again today: see "Asteroid debate rises to next level" at MSNBC's Cosmic Log. Ikluft (talk) 07:39, 17 November 2011 (UTC)
It's not at all "hypothetical to talk about the list filling up" (which you started talking about, BTW)- as I said, by the criterion you suggested, it would already be "filled up", consisting of some 15 entries. I don't dispute that the objects in question remain somewhat notable, but they are listed under an incorrect heading. Correctness of facts does change as newer info becomes available. --Roentgenium111 (talk) 22:11, 20 November 2011 (UTC)
Please stop trying to rephrase my statements out of context as if you could convince me I meant something else. Since you haven't responded with other relevant Wikipedia guidelines, this is unconvincing. Just leave it as it is. I consider this discussion done. Ikluft (talk) 16:28, 23 November 2011 (UTC)
Your guideline does not provide for keeping Apophis et. al. in this list - I didn't dispute that these objects remain notable (as former potential threats now). The most basic guideline of WP is that we only give accurate information from reliable sources, and your guideline does not preclude this. Claiming Apophis to still be a "potential threat" without giving an up-to-date reference for this (i.e. since after it was downgraded to Torino scale 0, which made it "officially" not a potential threat any more) is just as absurd as claiming that Pluto is still a planet, which was considered true until some years ago, but is no longer. Information that was correct in the past need not remain so forever.
I've deleted a statement of mine that may be considered out of context (sorry for that), but my main points stands: You said above: "Using the guidance from article notability that "notability is not temporary", any asteroid which has been Torino Scale 1 should continue to be considered relevant for that section. After the section fills up, this criteria may be revisited to reduce the total number of items." As you can count on Torino scale, there are 15 objects that have been rated Torino scale 1 or higher in the past, which in my opinion would fill up the section. --Roentgenium111 (talk) 14:04, 27 February 2012 (UTC)