Timeline of the future in forecasts

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For a timeline of the far future, see Timeline of the far future.

This timeline of the future in forecasts is a list of credible forecasts of near-future events and developments in all areas of science, technology, society and the environment.

Forecasting informs the planning and policy making processes within all governments and commercial organisations. Forecasts may be either qualitative extrapolations from a current state or quantitative output from models or simulations based on historical data and trends.

Forecasts are published by:

  • research and statistics departments within governments and leading commercial companies in a given field.
  • NGOs, think tanks and international organizations.
  • professional organizations and their associations and governing bodies.
  • academic bodies.

In addition, leading experts in a particular field develop and publish their own individual forecasts, and notable thinkers called futurists formulate independent visions of the future.

Forecasting is obviously not an exact science, and different experts may legitimately forecast different dates for the same event, because they use different models or assumptions. This page is organised by topic, allowing different forecasts of the same event to be compared side by side. Although the forecasts in this article are produced by professionals, no judgement is made as to their accuracy.

Contents

History [edit]

As far back as the nineteenth century, scholars and scientists made predictions about the future. Lord Kelvin, "One Heck of a Prognosticator, president of the Royal Society in the 1890s, and disbeliever in virtually every scientific discovery," claimed that “Radio has no future,” “I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning,” and “X-rays will prove to be a hoax;” Orville Wright, in 1908 claimed that “No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris;” and Irving Thalberg, MGM movie producer, asserted in 1927 that “Novelty is always welcome, but talking pictures are just a fad.”[1] Thus, making forecasts of the future has a historic basis in which many of the predictions by even experts have proven inaccurate.

Predicted future events (structured by topic) [edit]

Artificial intelligence and robotics [edit]

Main article: Future of robotics
  • Robots capable of manual labour tasks
    • 2015–2020 – Every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007[2]
    • 2018 – Robots will routinely carry out surgery, South Korea government 2007[2]
    • 2022 – Intelligent robots that sense their environment, make decisions, and learn are used in 30% of households and organizations – TechCast[3]
    • 2026 – Development of a robotic hand that can perform certain complex tasks with a level of precision, autonomy and dexterity that is similar to that of a human hand, Professor Mohamed Abderrahim of the EU funded HANDLE Research Project[4]
    • 2030 – Robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain[5]
    • 2034 – Robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot, 2004[6]
  • Military robots
    • 2015 – One third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots – US Department of Defense, 2006[7]
    • 2035 – First completely autonomous robot soldiers in operation – US Department of Defense, 2006[7]

Biology and medicine [edit]

Communications [edit]

Computing [edit]

Culture and leisure [edit]

  • Virtual reality
    • 2025 – Full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
    • 2030 – Virtual reality allows any type of interaction with anyone, regardless of physical proximity – Ray Kurzweil[11]
    • Mid to late 21st Century - Eventually virtual immersion will probably lead to virtual worlds (collectively known as the virtual universe) that people can enter. Leading onto the next great technological revolution, on par with radio, television and the Internet. [24]
  • Sport
    • 2050 – A team of fully autonomous humanoid robots can win against the human world soccer champion team – RoboCup, 1997[25]

Demographics [edit]

Energy [edit]

  • Peak oil – global oil production peaks
    • 2011 (already peaked)– Colin Campbell, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre[31]
    • 2013 – French government report[32]
  • Other energy milestones
    • 2020 – U.S. carbon emission market exceeds $1 trillion – New Carbon Finance[33]
    • 2023 – Alternatives to carbon-based fuels provide 30% of all energy used worldwide – TechCast[3]
    • 2040 - Space-based solar power will be commercially viable.[34]

Environment [edit]

Nanotechnology [edit]

Politics and economics [edit]

Transportation [edit]

Space [edit]

Other [edit]

Top 12 areas for innovation through 2025 [edit]

This list is part of research and consulting firm Social Technologies technology foresight project, published as a press release in 2007.[60]

  • Personalized medicine
    • Creation of an individual’s genome map for a retail price of less than $1,000
    • Correlation of specific genes and proteins with specific cancers, Alzheimer’s, heart disease, and diabetes, which will allow both physicians and patients to anticipate, plan for, and mitigate, if not cure, DNA-based health challenges development of pharmaceuticals that treat gene-based diseases, replacing surgeries and chemotherapy
  • Distributed energy
    • Advanced electric storage devices and batteries at all scales
    • New power systems with source-switching flexibility
  • Pervasive computing
    • Very simple and inexpensive computing devices with integrated wireless telephone and Internet capabilities (the worldwide $100 computer)
    • The Semantic Web, enabled by Web data that automatically self-organizes based on its content, allowing search tools or software agents to identify the actual relevance of Web pages—not just find keywords on them
    • Intelligent interfaces, in some cases enabled by virtual reality
  • Nanomaterials
    • The function of nanomaterials will move from “passive” to “active” with the integration of nanoscale valves, switches, pumps, motors, and other components.
  • Biomarkers for health
    • Individualized, private, and self-administered diagnostics for multiple physical parameters such as blood sugar, urine, C-reactive proteins, HDL, and LDL, as well as home diagnostic kits that detect early signs of diabetes, heart disease, and types of cancers
    • Personalized exercise equipment and regimens that deliver customized benefits (for weight control, blood pressure, blood sugar, etc.)
    • Advanced CAT scans, MRIs, and brain scans to identify disorders earlier and more accurately at less cost
  • Biofuels
    • High-energy blends of gasoline and diesel with biofuels (beyond the ethanol blends known today)
    • Biomass production of a methanol that can be used as a fuel for fuel cells
    • New discoveries in plant genetics and biotechnologies specifically for energy content
  • Advanced manufacturing
    • Advanced computer-aided design and control
    • Multiple variable and inexpensive sensors linked with computers
    • Expert systems and advanced pattern-recognition software for very tight quality control
  • Universal water
    • Ultra-fine filters (probably from nanotechnology)
    • New energy sources for desalination and purification, including hybrid systems that combine conventional and alternative power—especially solar power
    • Smart water-use technologies for agriculture and industry
  • Carbon management
    • Effective “measure, monitor, and verify” systems
    • Affordable and effective carbon capture and storage technologies and systems for coal-burning power plants
    • Low to zero emission controls for transportation
  • Engineered agriculture
    • Identification of specific genomes for desired growing and use qualities
    • Crop-produced pharmaceuticals and chemical feedstocks
    • Crops designed specifically for energy content and conversion
  • Security and tracking
    • Completely autonomous security-camera systems with algorithms able to correctly interpret and identify all manner of human behavior
    • Multiple integrated sensors (including remote sensing)
    • Radio frequency (RF) tags for people and valuables
  • Advanced transportation
    • Organized and coordinated personal transportation through wireless computer networks, information systems, and Internet access
    • Onboard sensors and computers for smart vehicles

See also [edit]

References [edit]

  1. ^ See editions of this calendar.
  2. ^ a b Robotic age poses ethical dilemma, BBC News
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Latest Forecast Results, TechCast
  4. ^ Scientists Developing Robotic Hand of the Future, ScienceDaily
  5. ^ 2003 Robotic Nation, Marshall Brain
  6. ^ Interview: Helen Greiner, Chairman and Cofounder of iRobot, Corp,
  7. ^ a b Launching a new kind of warfare, Guardian Online
  8. ^ Nistep Homepage
  9. ^ UIUC Agricultural Engineering | Faculty and Staff
  10. ^ service-robots.org – agriculture & harvesting
  11. ^ a b c The Coming Merging of Mind and Machine, Ray Kurzweil
  12. ^ a b c d e f Interview with Arthur C. Clarke, November 30, 2001
  13. ^ *Kurzweil, Raymond (2005), The Singularity Is Near, New York: Viking, ISBN 0-670-03384-7 
  14. ^ Rise of the Robots--The Future of Artificial Intelligence
  15. ^ Robots rule OK?, BBS News
  16. ^ The Fable of the Dragon Tyrant
  17. ^ Dick Pelletier, "Regenerative medicine could cure most diseases by 2020"
  18. ^ Cory
      • 2067- Robotic invasion will end humanity and Earth will turn into a Robotic Biosphere. - Greg Hufernsmutch [1]
    Doctorow, "Thought Experiments: When the Singularity is More Than a Literary Device: An Interview with Futurist-Inventor Ray Kurzweil"
  19. ^ Net pioneer predicts web future, BBC News
  20. ^ Taking on the Challenge of a 10-Petaflop Computer, Riken News April 2006
  21. ^ "'K computer' Achieves Goal of 10 Petaflops". Fujitsu.com. Retrieved 2012-02-09. 
  22. ^ The Technology Lane on the Road to a Zettaflops
  23. ^ Epic: Photo-realistic games in '10-15 years'
  24. ^ [2]
  25. ^ RoboCup Official Site
  26. ^ a b [3]
  27. ^ a b c [4]
  28. ^ Walter Greiling: Wie werden wir leben? ("How are we going to live?") Econ publishers, Munich 1954
  29. ^ a b Population, Health and Human Well-being – Demographics: Life expectancy at birth, both sexes, Earthtrends database
  30. ^ a b c The World in 2030, Ray Hammond
  31. ^ World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists, The Independent
  32. ^ 'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate, BBC News
  33. ^ Prediction: $1 Trillion U.S. Carbon Market By 2020
  34. ^ a b http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-11-iaa-power-orbit.html
  35. ^ Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013', BBC News
  36. ^ Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040, NCAR Press Release
  37. ^ Arctic could be ice-free by 2020, beating predictions by 30 years
  38. ^ Great Barrier Reef coral cover could drop below 10% by 2098
  39. ^ Aberkane, Idriss. Brzezinski on a U.S. Berezina: anticipating a New, New World Order E-International Relations March 31. 2011
  40. ^ [Russia Today, Oct 30th 2009 "The American empire will collapse by 2020" | http://rt.com/usa/news/american-empire-collapse-2020/]
  41. ^ [Russia Today, Feb 21st 2011 "“US Empire” doomed to fall - sociologist" | http://rt.com/news/us-empire-fall-sociologist/]
  42. ^ Lula's declaration
  43. ^ Billion millionaires by 2025 ?
  44. ^ BRICS AND BEYOND, Goldman Sachs
  45. ^ The World in 2050, PWC
  46. ^ Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project
  47. ^ GM researching driverless cars
  48. ^ Mark Baard, "The Final Capitalist Frontier" (11.17.04).
  49. ^ David L Chandler, "Design choices may hurry humans to Mars" (01 September 2005).
  50. ^ Zonk, "Visiting Our Red Space Neighbor" (Sep 09, 2005).
  51. ^ Slideshow: The Next Mother Lode: Mars
  52. ^ Russia will develop space elevators
  53. ^ Robert Z. Pearlman, "NASA Confirms New Moon Vehicle is Orion" (23 August 2006).
  54. ^ [5][dead link]
  55. ^ Russians see room for moonbase in lunar lava caves
  56. ^ http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2004/local/20041220215558.shtml
  57. ^ Mars 2007 Missions and beyond, NASA
  58. ^ Intel: Chips in brains will control computers by 2020
  59. ^ Shape-shifting robot swarms will create 3D replicas
  60. ^ http://www.nanowerk.com/news/newsid=3290.php

Further reading [edit]

External links [edit]

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