Tropical Meteorology Project

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The Tropical Meteorology Project is a research initiative at Colorado State University that studies weather patterns and systems in the tropics. It is best known for its annual predictions of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes expected to form each season in the North Atlantic Ocean. These predictions, issued in December, April and June (with mid-season updated issued in August, September and October), are written by Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates.

Past predictions[edit]

Since at least 1994, the Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University has issued pre-season predictions in December, April and June for the number of named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), hurricanes and intense hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) expected to appear in the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Basin. These are one of many predictions issued for storms. Drawing on data presented at the Tropical Meteorology Project's website (for predictions), and the National Hurricane Center (for observed totals), the table that follows shows the historical accuracy of these predictions.[1][2]

Season Type December
Prediction
April
Prediction
June
Prediction
Observed
Storms
December
Error
2007 Named storms 14 17
Hurricanes 7 9
Intense hurricanes 3 5
2006 Named storms 17 17 17 10 +7
Hurricanes 9 9 9 5 +4
Intense hurricanes 5 5 5 2 +3
2005 Named storms 11 13 15 28 -17
Hurricanes 6 7 8 15 -9
Intense hurricanes 3 3 4 7 -4
2004 Named storms 13 14 14 15 -2
Hurricanes 7 8 8 8 -1
Intense hurricanes 3 3 3 6 -3
2003 Named storms 12 12 14 16 -4
Hurricanes 8 8 8 7 +1
Intense hurricanes 3 3 3 3 0
2002 Named storms 13 12 11 12 +1
Hurricanes 8 7 6 4 +4
Intense hurricanes 4 3 2 2 +2
2001 Named storms 9 10 12 15 -6
Hurricanes 5 6 7 8 -3
Intense hurricanes 2 2 3 4 -2
2000 Named storms 11 11 12 15 -4
Hurricanes 7 7 8 8 -1
Intense hurricanes 3 3 4 3 0
1999 Named storms 14 14 14 12 +2
Hurricanes 9 9 9 8 +1
Intense hurricanes 4 4 4 5 -1

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University
  2. ^ National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center: Archive of Hurricane Seasons

External links[edit]