United Kingdom general election, 2015

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
United Kingdom general election, 2015
United Kingdom
2010 ←
members
7 May 2015 (2015-05-07) → Next

All 650 seats in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout 66.1%
  First party Second party
  David Cameron Ed Miliband
Leader David Cameron Ed Miliband
Party Conservative Labour
Leader since 6 December 2005 25 September 2010
Leader's seat Witney Doncaster North
Last election 307 seats, 36.1% 258 seats, 29.0%
Seats before 302 256
Seats won 331 232
Seat change Increase 28 Decrease 24
Popular vote 11,334,576 9,347,304
Percentage 36.9% 30.4%
Swing Increase 0.8% Increase 1.4%

  Third party Fourth party
  Nicola Sturgeon Nick Clegg
Leader Nicola Sturgeon Nick Clegg
Party SNP Liberal Democrat
Leader since 14 November 2014 18 December 2007
Leader's seat Did not stand[n 1] Sheffield Hallam
Last election 6 seats, 1.7% 57 seats, 23.0%
Seats before 6 56
Seats won 56 8
Seat change Increase 50 Decrease 48
Popular vote 1,454,436 2,415,862
Percentage 4.7% 7.9%
Swing Increase 3.0% Decrease 15.1%

2015UKElectionMap.svg

Colours denote the winning party, as shown in the main table of results.

Prime Minister before election

David Cameron
Conservative

Subsequent Prime Minister

David Cameron
Conservative

2001 election MPs
2005 election MPs
2010 election MPs

The United Kingdom general election of 2015 was held on 7 May 2015 to elect the 56th Parliament of the United Kingdom.[1] Voting took place in all 650 parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom, each electing one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons, the dominant house of Parliament. Local elections took place in most of England on the same day, excluding Greater London. It was the first general election to be held at the end of a fixed term parliament following the enactment of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

Polls and commentators predicted the outcome would be too close to call and result in a second hung parliament similar to the 2010 election.[2] Opinion polls were eventually proven to have significantly underestimated the Conservative vote, which bore resemblance to their surprise victory in the 1992 general election.[3] Having governed in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since 2010, the Conservatives won 331 seats and 36.9% of the vote, this time winning a working majority of 15. The British Polling Council began an inquiry into the substantial variance between opinion polls and the actual result.[4] Forming the first Conservative majority government since 1992, David Cameron became the first Prime Minister to continue in office immediately after a full term with a larger popular vote share since 1900 and the only Prime Minister other than Margaret Thatcher to continue in office immediately after a full term with a greater number of seats (and the first to do both since 1895). The Labour Party, led by Ed Miliband, won 232 seats with 30.4%, suffering their worst result since 1987.[5]

The Scottish National Party, having enjoyed a surge in support since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, became the third largest party in the Commons by winning 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland, mostly at the expense of Labour. The Liberal Democrats, led by the outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, suffered their worst result since 1970 and held just eight out of their previous 57 seats.[6] Liberal Democrat cabinet ministers Vince Cable, Ed Davey, Simon Hughes, David Laws and Danny Alexander all lost their seats, as well as Labour shadow cabinet ministers Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. The Green Party won their highest ever share of the vote with 3.8% and held their only seat of Brighton Pavilion with a larger majority.[7][8] The campaign was marked by the growing support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which came third in terms of votes with 12.9% but only won a single seat, with party leader Nigel Farage failing to win the seat of Thanet South. Both Murphy and Miliband, as well as Clegg and Farage all resigned as party leaders, though Farage’s resignation was rejected by his party.[9][10]

Election process[edit]

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (as amended by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013) led to the dissolution of the 55th Parliament on 30 March 2015 and the scheduling of the election on 7 May, the House of Commons not having voted for an earlier date.[1] There were local elections on the same day in most of England, with the exception of Greater London. No other elections were scheduled to take place in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, apart from any local by-elections.

In general elections, voting takes place in all parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom to elect members of parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the dominant (historically termed the lower) house of Parliament. Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the "first past the post" system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government.[11]

Although the Conservative Party planned the number of parliamentary seats to be reduced from 650 to 600, through the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, the review of constituencies and reduction in seats was delayed by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 amending the 2011 Act.[12][13][14][15] The next boundary review is now set to take place in 2018; thus the 2015 general election was contested using the same constituencies and boundaries as in 2010. Of the 650 constituencies, 533 are in England, 59 in Scotland, 40 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.

In addition, the 2011 Act mandated a referendum in 2011 on changing from the current "first past the post" system to an alternative vote (instant-runoff) system for elections to the Commons. The Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement committed the coalition government to such a referendum.[16] The referendum was held in May 2011 and resulted in the retention of the existing voting system. Before the previous general election, the Liberal Democrats had pledged to change the voting system, and the Labour Party pledged to have a referendum about any such change.[17] The Conservatives, however, promised to keep the first past the post system, but to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%. Liberal Democrat plans were to reduce the number of MPs to 500 elected using a proportional system.[18][19]

Ministers increased the amount of money that parties and candidates were allowed to spend on the election by 23%, a move decided against Electoral Commission advice.[20] The election saw the first cap on spending by parties in individual constituencies during the 100 days before Parliament's dissolution on 30 March: £30,700, plus a per-voter allowance of 9p in county constituencies and 6p in borough seats. An additional voter allowance of more than £8,700 is available after the dissolution of Parliament. UK political parties spent £31.1m in the 2010 general election, of which Conservatives spent 53%, the Labour Party spent 25% and the Liberal Democrats 15%.[21]

This was the first UK general election to use individual rather than household voter registration.

Date of the election[edit]

A church used as a polling station in Bath on 7 May 2015

An election is called following the dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The 2015 General Election is the first to be held under the provisions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Prior to this, the power to dissolve Parliament was a Royal Prerogative, exercised by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister. Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1716, as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, an election had to be announced on or before the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the previous parliament, barring exceptional circumstances. No Sovereign had refused a request for dissolution since the beginning of the 20th century, and practice had evolved such that a Prime Minister would typically call a general election to be held at a tactically convenient time within the final two years of a Parliament's lifespan, in order to maximize the chance of an electoral victory for his or her party.[22]

Prior to the 2010 general election, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats pledged to introduce fixed-term elections.[17] As part of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, the Cameron ministry agreed to support legislation for fixed-term Parliaments, with the date of the next general election being 7 May 2015.[23] This resulted in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which removed the Prime Minister's power to advise the monarch to call an early election. The Bill only permits an early dissolution if Parliament votes for one by a two-thirds supermajority, or if a vote of no confidence is passed by a majority and no new government is subsequently formed within 14 days.[24] However, the Prime Minister does have the power, by order made by Statutory Instrument under section 1(5) of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, to provide that the polling day is to be held up to two months later than 7 May 2015. Such a Statutory Instrument must be approved by each House of Parliament. Under section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was amended to extend the period between the dissolution of Parliament and the following general election polling day from 17 to 25 working days. This has had the effect of moving forward the date of the dissolution of the present Parliament to 30 March 2015.[1]

Timetable[edit]

The key dates were:

Monday 30 March Dissolution of Parliament (the 55th) and campaigning officially began
Saturday 2 May Last day to file nomination papers, to register to vote, and to request a postal vote[25]
Thursday 7 May Polling day
Monday 18 May New Parliament (the 56th) assembled
Wednesday 27 May State Opening of Parliament

MPs not standing for re-election[edit]

While at the previous election there had been a record 148 MPs not standing for re-election,[26] the 2015 election saw 90 MPs standing down.[27] These comprised 38 Conservative, 37 Labour, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Sinn Féin and 1 Plaid Cymru MP. The highest profile Members of Parliament leaving were: Gordon Brown, a former Prime Minister, Leader of the Labour Party (both 2007–2010) and Chancellor of the Exchequer (1997–2007); and William Hague, the outgoing First Secretary of State and Leader of the House of Commons and former Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (2010–2014), Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition (both 1997–2001).[28] Alongside Brown and Hague, 17 former cabinet ministers stood down at the election, including Stephen Dorrell, Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, David Blunkett, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Dame Tessa Jowell.[28] The highest profile Liberal Democrat to stand down was former leader Sir Menzies Campbell, while the longest serving MP (the "Father of the House") Sir Peter Tapsell also retired having served from 19591964 and then continuously since the 1966 general election.[28]

Contesting political parties and candidates[edit]

A sign in Woking showing opening hours of polling stations, including the advice that people queueing outside polling stations at 10.00pm "will be entitled to apply for a ballot paper"

Overview[edit]

As of 9 April 2015, the deadline for standing for the general election, the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties included 428 political parties registered in Great Britain,[29] and 36 in Northern Ireland.[30] Candidates who do not belong to a registered party can use an "independent" label, or no label at all.

The Conservative Party and Labour Party have been the two biggest parties since 1922, and have supplied all UK prime ministers since that date. Polls predicted that these parties would together receive between 65–75% of the votes and win 80–85% of seats between them[31][32] and that as such the leader of one of these parties would be the prime minister after the election. The Liberal Democrats had been the third party in the UK for many years; but as described by various commentators, other parties have risen relative to the Liberal Democrats since the 2010 election.[33][34] The Economist described a "familiar two-and-a-half-party system" (Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats) that "appears to be breaking down" with the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Greens and the Scottish National Party (SNP).[35] Newsnight[36] and The Economist[37] have described the country as moving into a six-party system, with the Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and Greens all being significant. Ofcom, in their role regulating election coverage in the UK, have ruled that for the general election and local elections in May 2015, the major parties in Great Britain are the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, with UKIP a major party in England and Wales, the SNP a major party in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru (PC) in Wales, and that the Greens were not a major party.[38] The BBC's guidelines are similar but exclude UKIP from the category of "larger parties" in Great Britain and instead state that UKIP should be given "appropriate levels of coverage in output to which the largest parties contribute and, on some occasions, similar levels of coverage".[39][40] Seven parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, PC and Green) participated in the election leadership debates.[41]

Great Britain-based[edit]

The main Great Britain-based parties—several parties operate in Northern Ireland only, which has a mainly separate political culture—are listed below in order of seats being contested:

Minor parties[edit]

Dozens of other minor parties stood in Great Britain. The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, founded as an electoral alliance of socialist parties in 2010 had 135 candidates and were the only other party to have more than 40 candidates.[43] Respect entered into the election with one MP (George Galloway), who was elected at the 2012 Bradford West by-election, but stood just four candidates. The British National Party, which finished fifth with 1.9% of the vote for its 338 candidates at the 2010 General Election, stood only eight candidates following a collapse in support.[44] 753 other candidates stood at the general election, including all independents, Northern Ireland-based party candidates, and candidates from other parties.[44]

Northern Ireland[edit]

The main parties in Northern Ireland (which has 18 constituencies) described by Ofcom,[38] the BBC[45] and others, ordered by vote share in 2010, are:

  • Sinn Féin: Sinn Féin won most votes in Northern Ireland in 2010, but came second in seats, winning five constituencies. They were second in the 2011 Assembly elections, but first in the 2014 European elections. Sinn Féin follows an abstentionist policy with respect to the Commons and have never so far taken their seats there. The party also operates in the Republic of Ireland, where it does take seats in parliament. The party was standing in all 18 Northern Irish constituencies.
  • Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): the DUP won eight seats in 2010, making them the largest party from Northern Ireland, and the fourth biggest in the UK as a whole. The party also won the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election, but were second in the 2014 European election. It contested 16 seats, having entered into an electoral pact with the Ulster Unionist Party in the remaining two.
  • Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): the SDLP were third in terms of votes and seats in the 2010 and 2011 elections, and fourth in the 2014 European elections. Prior to dissolution the party had three MPs. The SDLP has a relationship with the Labour Party in Great Britain, with SDLP MPs generally following the Labour whip. The party was expected to have supported Labour in the event of a hung Parliament[46] and contested all 18 constituencies at the election.
  • Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): in 2010 the UUP shared an electoral alliance with the Conservative Party and finished fourth in terms of votes in Northern Ireland, but won no seats. The party does have one MEP, having placed third in the 2014 European elections. They were fourth in the 2011 Assembly elections. The UUP contested 15 seats; the party did not run in two seats because of its electoral pact with the DUP, and also did not nominate a candidate against former UUP member and incumbent independent MP Sylvia Hermon.
  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: the Alliance Party had one MP, Naomi Long, who was elected for the first time in 2010. They were fifth in the 2010 election by vote share, fifth overall in 2011 and sixth in 2014. Alliance has a relationship with the Liberal Democrats in Great Britain: the party's former leader sits in the House of Lords as a Liberal Democrat, but Alliance's one MP elected in 2010 sat on the opposition benches in the Commons and not with the Liberal Democrats on the government benches. The party contested all 18 Northern Irish constituencies in 2015.

Smaller parties in Northern Ireland include Traditional Unionist Voice (standing in seven seats) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (standing in five seats). TUV and the Greens each currently hold one seat in the Legislative Assembly. The North Down seat was retained by independent Sylvia Hermon. The Northern Ireland Conservatives and UKIP fielded candidates, whereas Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not contest elections in Northern Ireland.

Pacts and possible coalitions[edit]

With the United Kingdom electoral system, coalitions have been rare as one party has usually won an overall majority in the Commons. However, with the outgoing Government being a coalition and with opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, there was much discussion about possible post-election coalitions or other arrangements such as confidence and supply agreements.[47]

Some UK political parties that only stand in part of the country have reciprocal relationships with parties standing in other parts of the country. These include:

  • Labour (in Great Britain) and SDLP (in Northern Ireland)
  • Liberal Democrats (in Great Britain) and Alliance (in Northern Ireland)
  • SNP (in Scotland) and Plaid Cymru (in Wales)
    • Plaid Cymru also recommended supporters in England to vote Green,[48] while the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said she would vote for Plaid Cymru were she in Wales, and Green were she in England.[49]
  • Green Party of England and Wales (in England and Wales), Scottish Greens (in Scotland) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (in Northern Ireland)

On 17 March 2015, the Democratic Unionist Party and Ulster Unionist Party agreed an election pact whereby the DUP would not stand candidates in Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where Michelle Gildernew, the Sinn Féin candidate, won by only 4 votes in 2010), and in Newry and Armagh. In return, the UUP would stand aside in Belfast East and Belfast North. The SDLP rejected a similar pact suggested by Sinn Féin.[50][51][52] The DUP also called on voters in Scotland to support whichever pro-Union candidate was best placed to beat the SNP.[53]

Candidates[edit]

The deadline for parties and individuals to file candidate nomination papers to the acting returning officer (and the deadline for candidates to withdraw) was 4 p.m. on 9 April 2015.[54][55][56][57] The total number of candidates was 3,971; the second-highest number in history, slightly down from the record 4,150 candidates at the last election in 2010.[44][58]

There were a record number of female candidates standing in terms of both absolute numbers and percentage of candidates: 1,020 (26.1%) in 2015, up from 854 (21.1%) in 2010.[44][58] The proportion of female candidates for major parties ranged from 41% of Alliance Party candidates to 12% of UKIP candidates.[59] According to UCL's Parliamentary Candidates UK project[60] the major parties had the following percentages of black and ethnic minority candidates: the Conservatives 11%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, Labour 9%, UKIP 6%, the Greens 4%.[61] The average age of the candidates for the seven major parties was 45.[60]

The youngest candidates were all aged 18: Solomon Curtis (Labour, Wealden); Niamh McCarthy (Independent, Liverpool Wavertree); Michael Burrows (UKIP, Inverclyde); Declan Lloyd (Labour, South East Cornwall); and Laura-Jane Rossington (Communist Party of Britain, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport).[62][63][64] The oldest candidate was Doris Osen, 84, of the Elderly Persons' Independent Party (EPIC), who was standing in Ilford North.[63] Other candidates aged over 80 included three long-serving Labour MPs standing for re-election: Sir Gerald Kaufman, 84 (Manchester Gorton), Dennis Skinner, 83 (Bolsover) and David Winnick, 81 (Walsall North).

A number of candidates—including two for Labour[65][66] and two for UKIP[67][68]—were suspended from their respective parties after nominations were closed. Independent candidate Ronnie Carroll died after nominations were closed.[69]

Television debates[edit]

The first series of televised leaders' debates in the United Kingdom was held in the previous election. After much debate and various proposals,[70][71] a seven-way debate with the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru was held, with a series of related programmes.

The campaign was notable for the absence of party posters on roadside hoardings. It was suggested that 2015 saw "the death of the campaign poster".[72]

Endorsements[edit]

Various newspapers, organisations and individuals endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election.

Opinion polling[edit]

  Conservative
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  UKIP
  Greens

Throughout the 55th parliament of the United Kingdom, first and second place in the polls without exception alternated between the Conservatives and Labour. Labour took a lead in the polls in the second half of 2010, driven in part by a collapse in Liberal Democrat support.[73] This lead rose up to approximately 10 points over the Conservative Party during 2012, whose ratings dipped alongside an increase in UKIP support.[74] UKIP passed the Liberal Democrats as the third most popular party at the start of 2013. Following this, Labour's lead over the Conservatives began to fall as UKIP gained support from them as well,[75] and by the end of the year Labour were polling at 39%, compared to 33% for the Conserative Party and 11% for UKIP.[75]

UKIP received 26.6% of the vote at the European elections in 2014, and though their support in the polls for Westminster never reached this level, it did rise up to over 15% through that year.[76] 2014 was also marked by the Scottish independence referendum. Despite the 'No' vote winning, support for the Scottish National Party rose quickly after the referendum, and had reached 43% in Scotland by the end of the year, up 23 points from the 2010 General Election, largely at the expense of Labour (−16 points in Scotland) and the Liberal Democrats (−13 points).[77] In Wales, where polls were less frequent, 2012–2014 saw a smaller decline in Labour's lead over the second place Conservative Party, from 28 points to 17.[78] These votes went mainly to UKIP (+8 points) and Plaid Cymru (+2 points). The rise of UKIP and SNP, alongside the smaller increases for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party (from around 2% to 6%)[76] saw the combined support of the Conservative and Labour party fall to a record low of around 65%.[79] Within this, the decline came predominantly from Labour, whose lead fell to under 2 points by the end of 2014.[76] Meanwhile the Liberal Democrat vote, which had held at about 10% since late 2010, declined further to about 8%.[76]

Early 2015 saw the Labour lead continue to fall, disappearing by the start of March.[80] Polling during the election campaign itself remained relatively static, with the Labour and Conservative parties both polling between 33–34% and neither able to establish a consistent lead.[81] Support for the Green Party and UKIP showed slight drops of around 1–2 points each, while Liberal Democrat support rose up to around 9%.[82] In Scotland, support for the SNP continued to grow with polling figures in late March reaching 54%, with the Labour vote continuing to decline accordingly,[83] while Labour retained their (reduced) lead in Wales, polling at 39% by the end of the campaign, to 26% for the Conservatives, 13% for Plaid Cymru, 12% for UKIP and 6% for the Liberal Democrats.[78] The final polls showed a mixture of Conservative leads, Labour leads and ties with both between 31–36%, UKIP on 11–16%, the Lib Dems on 8–10%, the Greens on 4–6%, and the SNP on 4–5% of the national vote.[84]

In addition to the national polls, Lord Ashcroft funded from May 2014 a series of polls in marginal constituencies, and constituencies where minor parties were expected to be significant challengers. Among other results, Lord Ashcroft's polls suggested that the growth in SNP support would translate into more than 50 seats;[85] that there was little overall pattern in Labour and Conservative Party marginals;[86] that the Green Party MP Caroline Lucas would retain her seat;[87] that both Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and UKIP leader Nigel Farage would face very close races to be elected in their own constituencies;[88] and that Liberal Democrat MPs would enjoy an incumbency effect that would lose fewer MPs than their national polling implied.[89] As with other smaller parties, their proportion of MPs remained likely to be considerably lower than that of total, national votes cast. Several polling companies included Ashcroft's polls in their election predictions, though several of the political parties disputed his findings.[90][91]

Predictions one month before the vote[edit]

The first-past-the-post system used in UK general elections means that the number of seats won is not closely related to vote share.[92] Thus, several approaches were used to convert polling data and other information into seat predictions. The table below lists some of the predictions. ElectionForecast was used by Newsnight and FiveThirtyEight. May2015.com is a project run by the New Statesman magazine.[93]

Seat predictions draw from nationwide polling, polling in the constituent nations of Britain and may additionally incorporate constituency level polling, particularly the Ashcroft polls. Approaches may or may not use uniform national swing (UNS). Approaches may just use current polling, i.e. a "nowcast" (e.g. Electoral Calculus, May2015.com and The Guardian), or add in a predictive element about how polling shifts based on historical data (e.g. ElectionForecast and Elections Etc.).[94] An alternative approach is to use the wisdom of the crowd and base a prediction on betting activity: the Sporting Index column below covers bets on the number of seats each party will win with the midpoint between asking and selling price, while FirstPastThePost.net aggregates the betting predictions in each individual constituency. Some predictions cover Northern Ireland, with its distinct political culture, while others do not. Parties are sorted by current number of seats in the House of Commons:

Party ElectionForecast[94]
(Newsnight Index)
as of 9 Apr 2015
Electoral Calculus[95]

as of 12 April 2015

Elections Etc[96]

as of 3 April 2015

The Guardian[97]
as of 12 April 2015
May2015.com[98]
as of 12 April 2015
Sporting Index[99]
as of 12 April 2015
First Past the Post[100]

as of 12 April 2015

Conservatives 284 278 289 281 271 267 283
Labour 274 284 266 271 277 272 279
Liberal Democrats 28 17 22 29 26 25 28
DUP 8 Included under Other GB forecast only Included under Other Included under Other No market 8.7
SNP 41 48 49 50 54 42 38
UKIP 1 2 5 4 3 6 7
SDLP 3 Included under Other GB forecast only Included under Other Included under Other No market 2.7
Plaid Cymru 2 3 3 3 3 3.3 3
Greens 1 1 1 1 1 1.25 1
Other 8 18

(including 18 NI seats)

GB forecast only, but
above may not sum to 632
due to rounding
18

(including 18 NI seats)

19

(including 18 NI
seats & Respect 1)

No market

Respect 0.5
UUP 0.9
Speaker 1
Sinn Féin 4.5
Sylvia Hermon 1

Overall result (probability) Hung parliament (93%) Hung parliament (60%) Hung parliament (80%) Hung parliament Hung parliament Hung parliament Hung parliament

Other predictions were published.[101] An election forecasting conference on 27 March 2015 yielded 11 forecasts of the result in Great Britain (including some included in the table above).[102] Averaging the conference predictions gives Labour 283 seats, Conservatives 279, Liberal Democrats 23, UKIP 3, SNP 41, Plaid Cymru 3 and Greens 1.[103] In that situation, no two parties (excluding a Lab-Con coalition) would have been able to form a majority without the support of a third. On 27 April, Rory Scott of the bookmaker Paddy Power predicted Conservatives 284, Labour 272, SNP 50, UKIP 3, and Greens 1.[104] LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph predicted for Northern Ireland: DUP 9, Sinn Féin 5, SDLP 3, Sylvia Hermon 1, with the only seat change being the DUP gaining Belfast East from Alliance.[105][106]

Final predictions before the vote[edit]

Percentage shares of votes, as predicted in the first week of May:

Party BMG[107] TNS-BNRB [108] Opinium[109] ICM[84] YouGov[110] Ipsos MORI[111] Ashcroft[112] Comres[113] Panelbase[114] Populous[115] Survation[116]
Conservative 33.7 33 35 34 34 36 33 35 31 33 31.4
Labour 33.7 32 34 35 34 35 33 34 33 33 31.4
UKIP 12 14 12 11 12 11 11 12 16 14 15.7
Liberal Democrats 10 8 8 9 10 8 10 9 8 10 9.6
Green 4 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 5 5 4.8
SNP 4 4 4 5 5 PC 5 5 5 5 4 4.7
Other 2.6 2 1 2 1 0.5 3 2 2 2 1.9
Lead Tie Con +1 Con +1 Lab +1 Tie Con +1 Tie Con +1 Lab +2 Tie Tie
PC Includes Plaid Cymru

Seats predicted on May 7:

Party ElectionForecast[94][117]
(Newsnight Index)
Electoral Calculus[118]
Elections Etc[119]
The Guardian[120]
May2015.com[121]
Sporting Index[99]
First Past the Post[100]
Mean
Conservatives 278 280 285 273 273 286 279 279.1
Labour 267 274 262 273 268 269 270 269.0
SNP 53 52 53 52 56 46 49 51.6
Liberal Democrats 27 21 25 27 28 26.5 25 25.6
DUP 8 Included under Other GB forecast only Included under Other Included under Other No market 8.7
UKIP 1 1 3 3 2 3.3 4 2.5
SDLP 3 Included under Other GB forecast only Included under Other Included under Other No market 2.7
Plaid Cymru 4 3 3 3 3 3.35 3.1 3.2
Greens 1 1 1 1 1 1.15 0.7 1.0
Other Sinn Féin 5
UUP 1
Sylvia Hermon 1
Speaker 1
18 (including 18 NI seats) 1, although its GB forecast only,
18 NI seats
18 (including 18 NI seats) 19 (including 18 NI seats
& Respect 1)
No market Sinn Féin 4.7
Hermon 1
Speaker 1
UUP 1
Respect 0.6
Overall result (probability) Hung parliament (100%) Hung parliament (92%) Hung parliament (91%) Hung parliament Hung parliament Hung parliament Hung parliament Hung parliament

Exit poll[edit]

A surprising exit poll, collected by Ipsos MORI and NOP on behalf of the BBC, ITN and Sky News, was published at 10 pm at the end of voting:[122]

Parties Seats
Conservative Party 316
Labour Party 239
Scottish National Party 58
Liberal Democrats 10
UK Independence Party 2
Green Party 2
Others 19
 Con 10 Short of Majority

This predicted the Conservatives to be 10 seats short of an absolute majority, although with the 5 predicted Sinn Féin MPs not taking their seats, it was likely to be enough to govern.[123]

The exit poll was markedly different to the pre-election opinion polls,[124] which had been fairly consistent; this led many pundits and MPs to speculate that the exit poll was inaccurate, and that the final result would have the two main parties closer to each other. Former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown vowed to "eat his hat" and former Labour "spin doctor" Alastair Campbell promised to "eat his kilt" if the exit poll, which predicted huge losses for their respective parties, was right.

As it turned out, the results were even more extreme than the poll predicted, with the Conservatives obtaining 330 seats, an absolute majority.[125] Ashdown and Campbell were presented with hat- and kilt-shaped cakes (labelled "eat me") on BBC Question Time on 8 May.

Polling inaccuracies and inquiry[edit]

With the eventual outcome in terms of both votes and seats varying substantially from the bulk of opinion polls released in the final months before the election, the polling industry received criticism for their inability to predict what was a surprisingly clear Conservative victory. Several theories have been put forward to explain the inaccuracy of the pollsters. One theory was that there had simply been a very late swing to the Conservatives, with the polling company Survation claiming that 13% of voters made up their minds in the final days and 17% on the day of the election.[126] The company also claimed that a poll they carried out a day before the election gave the Conservatives 37% and Labour 31%, though they said they did not release the poll (commissioned by the Daily Mirror) on the concern that it was too much of an outlier with other poll results.[127] However, it was reported that pollsters had in fact picked up a late swing to Labour on polling day, not the Conservatives.[128] It was reported after the election that private pollsters working for the two largest parties actually gathered more accurate results, with Labour's pollster James Morris claiming that the issue was largely to do with surveying technique.[129] Morris claimed that telephone polls that immediately asked for voting intentions tended to get a high 'don't know' or a high anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private polls that collected other information such as views on the leaders' performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true voting intentions.[130] Another theory was the issue of 'shy Tories' not wanting to openly declare their intention to vote Conservative to pollsters.[131] A final theory, put forward after the election, was the 'Lazy Labour' factor, which claimed that Labour voters tend to not vote on polling day whereas Conservative voters have a much higher turnout.[132]

The British Polling Council announced an inquiry into the substantial variance between the opinion polls and the actual election result.

Results[edit]



Circle frame.svg

Party vote percentage

  Conservative (36.9%)
  Labour (30.4%)
  UKIP (12.6%)
  SNP (4.7%)
  Green (3.8%)
  DUP (0.6%)
  Plaid Cymru (0.6%)
  Sinn Féin (0.6%)
  UUP (0.4%)
  SDLP (0.3%)
  Other (1.2%)
For results by county/region and analysis, see Results breakdown of the United Kingdom general election, 2015.

After all 650 constituencies had been declared, the results were:[133][134]

Party Leader Votes Seats
Conservative Party David Cameron 11,300,303 (36.9%)
331 (50.8%)
331 / 650
Labour Party Ed Miliband 9,344,328 (30.4%)
232 (35.7%)
232 / 650
UK Independence Party Nigel Farage 3,881,129 (12.6%)
1 (0.2%)
1 / 650
Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg 2,415,888 (7.9%)
8 (1.2%)
8 / 650
Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon 1,454,436 (4.7%)
56 (8.6%)
56 / 650
Green Party of England and Wales Natalie Bennett 1,157,613 (3.8%)
1 (0.2%)
1 / 650
Democratic Unionist Party Peter Robinson 184,260 (0.6%)
8 (1.2%)
8 / 650
Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood 181,694 (0.6%)
3 (0.5%)
3 / 650
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 176,232 (0.6%)
4 (0.6%)
4 / 650
Ulster Unionist Party Mike Nesbitt 114,935 (0.4%)
2 (0.3%)
2 / 650
Social Democratic & Labour Party Alasdair McDonnell 99,809 (0.3%)
3 (0.5%)
3 / 650
Others N/A 381,053 (1.2%)
2 (0.3%)
2 / 650
331 232 56 8 24
Conservative Labour SNP LD Other



The following table shows final election results as reported by BBC News[135] and The Guardian.[136]

e • d Summary of the May 2015 House of Commons of the United Kingdom results
Political party Leader Candidates[137] Total
votes
Total
MPs
MPs
gained
MPs
lost
MPs,
net change
MPs,
of total (%)
Votes,
of total (%)
Total votes,
change[a] (%)
Conservative[b] David Cameron 647 11,300,303 330 38 10 +28 50.8 36.8 +0.7
Labour Ed Miliband 631 9,344,328 232 24 48 −24 35.7 30.4 +1.5
UKIP Nigel Farage 624 3,881,129 1 0 1 –1 0.2 12.6 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 631 2,415,888 8 0 48 –48 1.2 7.9 −15.1
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 59 1,454,436 56 50 0 +50 8.6 4.7 +3.1
Green[c] Natalie Bennett 575 1,157,613 1 0 0 0 0.2 3.8 +2.8
DUP Peter Robinson 16 184,260 8 1 1 0 1.2 0.6 0.0
Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood 40 181,694 3 0 0 0 0.5 0.6 0.0
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 18 176,232 4 0 1 −1 0.6 0.6 0.0
UUP Mike Nesbitt 15 114,935 2 2 0 +2 0.3 0.4 N/A[d]
SDLP Alasdair McDonnell 18 99,809 3 0 0 0 0.5 0.3 0.0
Independent N/A 170 98,711 1 0 4 –4[e] 0.2 0.3 −0.2
Alliance David Ford 18 61,556 0 0 1 −1 0 0.2 +0.1
TUSC Dave Nellist 128 36,327 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 +0.1
Speaker John Bercow 1 34,617 1 0 0 0 0.2 0.1 0.0
National Health Action[f] Richard Taylor
& Clive Peedell
13 20,210 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.0
TUV Jim Allister 7 16,538 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.0
Respect George Galloway 4 9,989 0 0 1 –1 0 0.0 −0.1
CISTA Paul Birch 34 8,419 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Other parties[g] N/A 7,958 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 N/A
People Before Profit Collective 1 7,854 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Yorkshire First Richard Carter 14 6,811 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
English Democrats Robin Tilbrook 35 6,531 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 −0.2
Mebyon Kernow Dick Cole 6 5,675 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Lincolnshire Independents Marianne Overton 5 5,407 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Liberal Steve Radford 4 4,480 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Monster Raving Loony Alan "Howling Laud" Hope 27 3,898 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Independent Save Withybush Save Lives Chris Overton 1 3,729 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Socialist Labour Arthur Scargill 8 3,481 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Christian Peoples Sidney Cordle 17 3,260 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Christian[h] Jeff Green 9 3,205 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 −0.1
No description[i] N/A 3,012 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Workers' Party John Lowry 5 2,724 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
North East Party Hilton Dawson 4 2,138 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Poole People Mike Howell 1 1,766 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
BNP Adam Walker 8 1,667 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 −1.9
Residents for Uttlesford John Lodge 1 1,658 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Rochdale First Party Farooq Ahmed 1 1,535 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Communist Robert Griffiths 9 1,229 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Pirate Laurence Kaye 6 1,130 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
National Front Kevin Bryan 7 1,114 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Communities United Kamran Malik 5 1,102 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Reality Mark "Bez" Berry 3 1,029 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
The Southport Party David Cobham 1 992 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
All People's Party Prem Goyal 4 981 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Peace John Morris 4 957 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Bournemouth Independent Alliance David Ross 1 903 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Socialist (GB) Collective 10 899 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Scottish Socialist Executive Committee 4 875 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Alliance for Green Socialism Mike Davies 4 852 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Your Vote Could Save Our Hospital Sandra Allison 1 849 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Wigan Independents Gareth Fairhurst 1 768 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson 4 736 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Something New James Smith 2 695 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Consensus Helen Tyrer 1 637 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
NLP National Council 2 627 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Independents Against Social Injustice Steve Walmsley 1 603 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Independence from Europe Mike Nattrass 5 578 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Whig Waleed Ghani 4 561 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Guildford Greenbelt Group Susan Parker 1 538 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Class War Ian Bone 7 526 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Above and Beyond Mark Flanagan 5 522 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Northern Mark Dawson 5 506 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Workers Revolutionary Sheila Torrance 7 488 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Left Unity Kate Hudson 3 455 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Liberty Paul Weston 3 418 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
People First Collective 1 407 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 New
Total 3,921 30,691,680 650 - - - Turnout 66.1 -
  1. ^ This column shows the change in vote share percentage from the 2010 general election to the 2015 general election. It does not account for by-elections.
  2. ^ BBC News includes the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, in the MP tally and the vote tally for the Conservatives. See About these results, BBC News (30 April 2015). In this table, however, the speaker (who usually does not vote in the Commons) is listed separately, and has been removed from the Conservative tally.
  3. ^ Includes votes for the Green Party of Northern Ireland and Scottish Green Party.
  4. ^ The UUP did not run itself in 2010; instead, it ran candidates under the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists banner.
  5. ^ Several MPs who were each formally affiliated with a party at the beginning of the 55th Parliament were either suspended or had resigned from their parties by the time Parliament was dissolved and became independents; see here for details.
  6. ^ BBC News lists the National Health Action Party together with Independent Community and Health Concern (formerly known as Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern), which is affiliated with the larger party, for a total of 20,210 votes. The Guardian lists each party separately. Health Concern received 7,211 of the votes attributed to the National Health Action Party.
  7. ^ 66 parties, none of which contested more than 2 constituencies, each with under 300 votes
  8. ^ The BBC groups together the votes under the Scottish Christian Party (1,467 votes); Christian Party (1,040 votes); and Christian (698 votes) labels, for a total of 3,205 votes. The Guardian lists these designations separately.
  9. ^ Candidates who do not specify a party or Independent are categorised as No description
Vote share
Conservative
  
36.8%
Labour
  
30.4%
UK Independence
  
12.6%
Liberal Democrat
  
7.9%
Scottish National
  
4.7%
Green
  
3.8%
Others
  
3.7%
Parliamentary seats
Conservative
  
50.8%
Labour
  
35.7%
Scottish National
  
8.6%
Liberal Democrat
  
1.2%
Democratic Unionist
  
1.2%
Others
  
2.4%

Voting distribution per constituency[edit]

Results of the 2015 general election in the United Kingdom: voting distribution per constituency.

TurnOut %-changes
Conservatives %-changes
Labour %-changes
UKIP %-changes
LD %-changes
Greens %-changes
Nationalists %-changes

Outcome[edit]

Despite most opinion polls predicting the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck, the Conservatives secured a clear lead over their rivals and took a working majority of 15 (with Sinn Féin's 4 MPs abstaining). Conservative party leader and incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron subsequently formed a majority single-party government, while their former Liberal Democrat coalition partners suffered their worst defeat since the 1970 general election.

Winning just 8 seats, the Liberal Democrats were tied with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland in the House of Commons, with Nick Clegg being one of the few MPs from his party to retain their seats. The Liberal Democrats gained no seats at all but lost 48: 26 to the Conservatives, 12 to Labour and 10 to the SNP.

The Conservatives gained 38 seats but lost 10, all to Labour. Employment Minister Esther McVey was the most senior Conservative to lose her seat.

The Labour Party polled below expectations and won 30.4% of the vote and 232 seats, 24 fewer than their previous result in 2010. Their net loss of seats were mainly a result of their resounding defeat in Scotland, where the Scottish National Party took 39 of their seats and unseated key Labour politicians such as shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. Murphy faced calls for his resignation after his party was left with just a single seat in Scotland. Labour lost a further nine seats to the Conservatives, and were left with their lowest share of the seats since the 1987 general election. Ed Miliband subsequently tendered his resignation as Labour leader.

The above table shows that four Independents lost their seats. The former Labour MP Eric Joyce's seat went to the SNP, while the former Liberal Democrat Mike Hancock's seat went to the Conservatives, Hancock obtaining only 716 votes.

Despite threats that voting for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) would result in a Labour government, UKIP were only able to hold one of their two seats and gain no new ones, with media commentators unable to make out whether it had been a good or a bad election result for UKIP. Despite being placed firmly in third place in terms of votes with 12.9%, UKIP were left with only one seat and the party's leader Nigel Farage crucially failed to win the constituency of Thanet South and tendered his resignation as a result. His resignation was rejected by his party's executive council and he stayed on as leader.

The Alliance Party and the Respect Party each lost their only seat, to the Democratic Unionists and to Labour respectively.

Gender balance[edit]

The election led to an increase in the number of female MPs, from 147 (23% of the total, including 87 Labour, 47 Conservative, 7 Liberal Democrat, 1 SNP, 5 other) to 191 (29% of the total, including 99 Labour, 68 Conservative, 20 SNP, 4 other). As before the election, the region with the largest proportion of women MPs was North East England.[138]

Seats changing hands and MPs who lost their seats[edit]

111 seats changed hands compared to the result in 2010 plus three by-election gains reverted to the original winner.

Aftermath[edit]

Resignations[edit]

On 8 May, three party leaders announced their resignations within an hour of each other:[139] Ed Miliband (Labour) and Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat) resigned due to their parties' worse-than-expected results in the election, although both had been re-elected to their seats in Parliament.[140][141] Nigel Farage (UKIP) offered his resignation because he had failed to be elected as MP for Thanet South, but said he might re-stand in the resulting leadership election. However, on 11 May the UKIP executive rejected his resignation on the grounds that the election campaign had been "a great success",[142] and Farage agreed to continue as party leader.[143]

Alan Sugar, a Labour peer in the House of Lords, also announced his resignation from the Labour Party for running what he perceived to be an anti-business campaign.[144]

In response to Labour's poor performance in Scotland, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy initially resisted calls for his resignation by other senior party members. Despite surviving a no-confidence vote by 17-14 from the party's national executive, Murphy announced that he would step down as leader within a month on 16 May.[145]

Financial markets[edit]

Financial markets reacted positively to the result, with the pound sterling rising against the Euro and US dollar when the exit poll was published, and the FTSE 100 stock market index rising 2.3% on 8 May. The BBC reported: "Bank shares saw some of the biggest gains, on hopes that the sector will not see any further rises in levies. Shares in Lloyds Banking Group rose 5.75% while Barclays was 3.7% higher", adding, "Energy firms also saw their share prices rise, as Labour had wanted a price freeze and more powers for the energy regulator. British Gas owner Centrica rose 8.1% and SSE shares were up 5.3%". BBC economics editor Robert Peston noted: "To state the obvious, investors love the Tories' general election victory. There are a few reasons. One (no surprise here) is that Labour's threat of breaking up banks and imposing energy price caps has been lifted. Second is that investors have been discounting days and weeks of wrangling after polling day over who would form the government - and so they are semi-euphoric that we already know who's in charge. Third, many investors tend to be economically conservative and instinctively Conservative."[146]

Electoral reform[edit]

The disparity between the numbers of votes and the number of seats obtained by the smaller parties gave rise to increased calls for replacement of the 'first-past-the-post' voting system with a more proportional system. For example, UKIP had 3.9 million votes per seat, whereas SNP had just 26,000 votes per seat, about 150 times greater representation for each vote cast. It is worth noting however that UKIP stood in 10 times more seats than the SNP. Noting that UKIP's 13% share of the overall votes cast had resulted in the election of just one MP, Nigel Farage argued that the UK's voting system needed reforming, saying, "Personally, I think the first-past-the-post system is bankrupt".[147] Re-elected Green Party MP Caroline Lucas agreed, saying her party had "made history" and had had the "most successful election campaign ever, with almost a million people voting Green". She added: "The political system in this country is broken […] It's ever clearer tonight that the time for electoral reform is long overdue, and it's only proportional representation that will deliver a Parliament that is truly legitimate and better reflects the people it is meant to represent."[148]

Protests[edit]

Over the weekend following the election, a series of protests were reported in London and Cardiff, with two police hospitalisations and fifteen arrests.[149] The protests in London of between 100 and 500 people were centred around Downing Street. In Cardiff, Charlotte Church was involved in the rally.[150] The purpose of these demonstrations seems to have been to criticise austerity.[151]

See also[edit]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ SNP party leader Nicola Sturgeon, a Member of the Scottish Parliament and First Minister of Scotland, participated in some of the main UK-wide televised debates, but did not stand for a seat in this election. Angus Robertson, MP for Moray, is the SNP leader in the House of Commons. For the question of a possible post-election leadership role at Westminster for Nicola Sturgeon's predecessor Alex Salmond, see Alex Salmond#2015 Westminster election.
  2. ^ After nominations had closed and ballot papers were printed, the Labour candidate in Banff and Buchan, Sumon Hoque, was suspended from the Labour Party when he was charged with multiple driving offences, and the Labour candidate in Wellingborough, Richard Garvie, was also suspended after a conviction for fraud
  3. ^ After nominations had closed and ballot papers were printed, two UKIP candidates were suspended from the party for offensive comments.

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c "General election timetable 2015". Parliament of the United Kingdom. Retrieved 8 December 2014. 
  2. ^ "UK election: British voters go to the polls in most unpredictable election in decades". ABC News. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  3. ^ "It is 1992 all over again for David Cameron’s Conservatives". Financial Times. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  4. ^ "Election 2015: Inquiry into opinion poll failures". BBC News. 
  5. ^ "Live election results". The Guardian. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  6. ^ Matthew Oakeshott. "Our democracy has been shown up. We must now work to change it". the Guardian. 
  7. ^ "A victorious Caroline Lucas has perfectly summed up how negative our politics is". The Independent. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  8. ^ "Election 2015: Ed Miliband resignation imminent as Conservatives win stunning majority - as it happened, May 8 - Telegraph". Telegraph.co.uk. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  9. ^ "Ed Miliband to step down as Labour leader". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  10. ^ "Election 2015 Live: Nick Clegg resigns as Lib Dem leader after 'heartbreaking result'". The Guardian. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  11. ^ Another hung Parliament: what next?. YouTube. 18 March 2015. 
  12. ^ "Closure of 2013 Review". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 22 September 2013. 
  13. ^ "Sixth Periodic Review – Index". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 22 September 2013. 
  14. ^ "The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland". The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. Retrieved 8 February 2013. 
  15. ^ "Statement Regarding the 2013 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies". Boundary Commission for Wales. 31 January 2013. Retrieved 8 February 2013. 
  16. ^ "Full text: Conservative-LibDem deal". BBC News. 12 May 2010. Retrieved 3 May 2013. 
  17. ^ a b "Where They Stand: Guide to party election policies". BBC News. 26 March 2010. 
  18. ^ "How Strong is the Case for Reducing the Number of MPs?" (PDF). Democratic Audit. Retrieved 7 September 2013. 
  19. ^ "Q&A – Boundary Changes". BBC News. 29 January 2013. Retrieved 8 September 2013. 
  20. ^ "Tories accused of 'trying to buy election' with 23% hike to campaign spending". The Guardian. 13 December 2014. Retrieved 18 December 2014. 
  21. ^ "2015 election campaign officially begins on Friday". BBC News. 18 December 2014. Retrieved 18 December 2014. 
  22. ^ Twentieth-Century British Political Facts 1900–2000, by David Butler and Gareth Butler (Macmillan Press 2000 ISBN 0-333-77222-9), page 451 Use of Royal Power
  23. ^ "Full text of the Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition deal". The Guardian (London). 12 May 2010. Retrieved 12 May 2010. 
  24. ^ "House of Commons Debate 5 July 2010 c 23". parliament.uk/. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 8 September 2013. 
  25. ^ "Research Paper 07/31: Election Timetables" (PDF). House of Commons Library. 
  26. ^ "A post-war record for MPs standing down". BBC News. 2 December 2009. 
  27. ^ "MPs Standing Down in 2015". Parliamentary Candidates.org. Retrieved 1 May 2015. 
  28. ^ a b c "Farewell to William Hague – and the 85 other MPs standing down". BBC News. Retrieved 1 May 2015. 
  29. ^ "Party Finance – the Electoral Commission". Electoral Commission. 18 April 2015. Retrieved 18 April 2015. 
  30. ^ "Search – The Electoral Commission". Electoral Commission. 18 April 2015. Retrieved 18 April 2015. 
  31. ^ "Who is ahead in the polls?". New Statesman. Retrieved 29 April 2015. 
  32. ^ a b "Can any party win a majority?". New Statsement. Retrieved 29 April 2015. 
  33. ^ "May2015's 100-graph guide to the election – every issue covered". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  34. ^ Alberto Nardelli. "Election polls point to Tory-Labour tie and three-party alliance". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  35. ^ "Refighting old battles", The Economist (10–16 January 2015), 414(8290):23–4
  36. ^ Newsnight, BBC2, 5 January 2015
  37. ^ "The great fracturing", The Economist (21–7 February 2015), 414(8296):11
  38. ^ a b "Review of Ofcom list of major political parties for elections taking place on 7 May 2015" (PDF). OFCOM. 
  39. ^ "BBC Election Guidelines" (PDF). BBC. Retrieved 29 March 2015. 
  40. ^ "BBC – Trust approves the BBC's guidelines for its coverage of the May 2015 election – BBC Trust". Retrieved 29 March 2015. 
  41. ^ "Cameron denies 'running scared' of TV election debates". BBC News. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  42. ^ "Voter Trends in 2014 and lessons for the 2015 General Election". Second reading. 
  43. ^ "Party co-founded by Bob Crow to launch manifesto". ITV.com. Retrieved 26 April 2015. 
  44. ^ a b c d Eardley, Nick (22 April 2015). "Election 2015: The candidates in numbers". BBC News. 
  45. ^ "BBC – Trust launches further consultation on the BBC's guidelines for its coverage of the May 2015 elections – BBC Trust". Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  46. ^ Henry McDonald. "Northern Ireland: SDLP rules out general election pact with Sinn Féin". The Guardian. 
  47. ^ "Here's what we already know about the 24 hours after the election". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  48. ^ David Williamson (28 January 2015). "Plaid Cymru urges supporters living in England to vote Green". walesonline. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  49. ^ "Politics Live – 16 March – BBC News". BBC. 
  50. ^ "Arlene Foster says DUP and UUP in election pact talks". BBC News. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  51. ^ "SDLP rejects call for electoral pact with Sinn Fein". The Belfast Telegraph. 
  52. ^ "Election 2015: SDLP reject Sinn Féin proposal for pact". BBC News. 
  53. ^ Nicholas Watt. "Conservative party is losing our support over Scotland, warns DUP". The Guardian. 
  54. ^ "General Election 2015 timetable". Parliament of the United Kingdom. 
  55. ^ "Election 2015: Scottish nominations close". BBC News. 9 April 2015. 
  56. ^ "List of General Election candidates published". UTV. 9 April 2015. 
  57. ^ "General Election nominations close". The Belfast Telegraph. 9 April 2015. 
  58. ^ a b "Google Sheets – create and edit spreadsheets online, for free.". Google. 
  59. ^ Warnes, Sophie; Scott, Patrick (27 March 2015). "General Election 2015: Where are all the female candidates?". The Mirror. 
  60. ^ a b Parliamentary Candidates UK, School of Public Policy, University College London
  61. ^ Fathan, Matt (22 April 2015). "General Election 2015: Natalie Bennett admits the Green party has a problem over its lack of black and ethnic minority candidates". The Independent. 
  62. ^ Woods, Lauren (3 April 2015). "Meet the 18-year-old girl standing in Liverpool against Labour". The Guardian. 
  63. ^ a b Merrill, James; De Caria, Federica (22 March 2014). "Election 2015: Meet the top 12 wacky candidates seeking your vote in May". The Independent. 
  64. ^ "Communist Party launches election manifesto". BBC News. 21 April 2015. 
  65. ^ Gosling, Francesce (30 April 2015). "Labour's candidate for Wellingborough and Rushden Richard Garvie suspended after conviction for fraud". Northampton Chronicle & Echo. 
  66. ^ "Labour candidate Sumon Hoque appears at Aberdeen Sheriff Court – Aberdeen & North". STV News. 
  67. ^ "UKIP candidate Jack Sen suspended over Jewish slur tweet". BBC News. 
  68. ^ Kevin Rawlinson. "Ukip candidate suspended for threatening to 'put a bullet in' Tory rival". the Guardian. 
  69. ^ "Ronnie Carroll: Former Eurovision singer and election candidate dies". BBC News. 
  70. ^ "Will There Be Election Debates in 2015, And Who Will Fight Them?". Retrieved 7 January 2013. 
  71. ^ "TV election debates: DUP to seek judicial review of BBC's decision". BBC News. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  72. ^ "Election 2015: The death of the campaign poster - BBC News". Bbc.co.uk. 2015-04-15. Retrieved 2015-05-09. 
  73. ^ "end of year roundup labour". UK Polling Report. 
  74. ^ "Happy New Year". UK Polling Report. 
  75. ^ a b "Six Public Opinion Trends from 2013". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  76. ^ a b c d "Six opinion poll findings from 2014". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  77. ^ Clark, Tom. "Labour set for a bloodbath in Scotland in general election, poll says". The Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  78. ^ a b Scully, Roger. "What the Welsh Polls Say (and have said)". Elections in Wales. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  79. ^ Jones, Ian. "The political story of 2014 in 14 charts: part one". UK General Election 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  80. ^ "Eight Weeks to go". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  81. ^ Jones, Ian. "How the polls have behaved during the campaign". UK General Election 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  82. ^ "The Static Campaign". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  83. ^ "Poll: SNP on course for clean sweep in Scotland". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  84. ^ a b "Labour has one-point lead over Tories in final Guardian/ICM poll". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 May 2015. 
  85. ^ Lambert, Harry. "Election 2015: Stunning Ashcroft polls show the SNP could win every seat in Scotland". May2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  86. ^ "More Conservative-Labour marginals". Lord Ashcroft. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  87. ^ Wigmore, Tim. "Brighton Pavilion: Can Caroline Lucas survive in the Green Party's only fiefdom?". May2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  88. ^ Mason, Rowena; Perraudin, Frances. "Clegg to lose seat and Tories to beat Farage, Ashcroft poll suggests". The Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  89. ^ Tall, Stephen. "Ashcroft's poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party". Lib Dem Voice. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  90. ^ Bush, Stephen. "Are the Ashcroft Polls Wrong". New Statesman. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  91. ^ "UKIP Disputes Skewed Poll Showing Party Behind in Key Seats". Breitbart. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  92. ^ "Would you like 5 million votes and 4 seats, or 1 million votes and 56 seats?". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  93. ^ Harry Lambert. "Welcome to May2015.com". may2015.com. 
  94. ^ a b c Chris Hanretty. "ElectionForecast.co.uk". electionforecast.co.uk. 
  95. ^ "Electoral Calculus". electoralcalculus.co.uk. 
  96. ^ "Elections Etc". Elections Etc. 
  97. ^ "Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection". The Guardian. Retrieved 3 April 2015. 
  98. ^ "Seat Calculator – May2015: 2015 General Election Guide". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. 
  99. ^ a b "Politics Spread Betting – UK General Election: Seats Markets". Sporting Index. 
  100. ^ a b "First Past the Post". First Past the Post. 
  101. ^ Andrew Sparrow. "Miliband challenges Cameron to defend Fink – but won't describe Fink as 'dodgy': Politics Live blog". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  102. ^ "General Election 2015 – A distribution of general election forecasts". General Election 2015. 
  103. ^ Paul Whiteley (1 April 2015). "Will Britain be governable after the election?". The Conversation. 
  104. ^ "Election Live – 27 April – BBC News". bbc.in. 
  105. ^ "Northern Ireland Westminster election forecast 2015". The Belfast Telegraph. 
  106. ^ "Upper Bann: Jo-Anne Dobson closing in on David Simpson as poll shows drop in DUP support". The Belfast Telegraph. 
  107. ^ "Election 2015: New exclusive poll puts Labour and Tories on exactly 33.7 per cent each". May2015. Retrieved 6 May 2015. 
  108. ^ "TNS Poll – Parties have reached stalemate". TNS. Retrieved 6 May 2015. 
  109. ^ "Political Polling 4th May". Retrieved 6 May 2015. 
  110. ^ "YouGov / The Sun / The Times Survey Results" (PDF). YouGov. Retrieved 6 May 2015. 
  111. ^ "Ipsos MORI – Final Election Poll" (PDF). Ipsos MORI. Retrieved 7 May 2015. 
  112. ^ Ashcroft, Michael. "Ashcroft National Poll – Pre Election. CATI Fieldwork : Tuesday/ Wednesday 5th/ 6th May 2015" (PDF). Lord Ashcroft. Retrieved 7 May 2015. 
  113. ^ "Daily Mail/ITV News Final Poll 6th May 2015". Retrieved 6 May 2015. 
  114. ^ "Panelbase Poll 6th May 2015" (PDF). Panelbase. Retrieved 6 May 2015. 
  115. ^ "Opinion Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : 5th–7th May 2015" (PDF). Populous. Retrieved 7 May 2015. 
  116. ^ "Final Polls". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 6 May 2015. 
  117. ^ "U.K. General Election Predictions". FiveThirtyEight. 
  118. ^ "Electoral Calculus". electoralcalculus.co.uk. 
  119. ^ "Elections Etc". Elections Etc. 
  120. ^ "Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 May 2015. 
  121. ^ "Seat Calculator". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. 
  122. ^ Cowling, David. "Election 2015: The highs and lows of election exit polls". BBC News. Retrieved 7 May 2015. 
  123. ^ "Election results: Conservatives win majority". BBC News. 
  124. ^ Election 2015, BBC
  125. ^ "UK election results - what does it all mean? As it happened". The Telegraph. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 26 May 2015. 
  126. ^ "Where’s the late swing? « ComRes". comres.co.uk. 
  127. ^ "Survation alleges it called the British General Election 2015 results accurately, didn't publish - Business Insider". Business Insider. 12 May 2015. 
  128. ^ "Europe - UK election: Final polls show late surge for Labour, but hung parliament still likely". France 24. 
  129. ^ "Late swing? Labour's private polls showed Tories ahead before Christmas". newstatesman.com. 
  130. ^ "Labour pollster under Ed Miliband's leadership knew they were down last year - Daily Mail Online". Mail Online. 
  131. ^ Lionel Shriver. "If you want more accurate polls, stop shaming shy Tories". the Guardian. 
  132. ^ http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/22/election-2015-who-voted-for-whom-labour-conservatives-turnout
  133. ^ "Live UK election results". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  134. ^ "Election 2015 results". BBC. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  135. ^ "Election 2015 - Results". BBC News. 
  136. ^ Osborn, Matt; Clarke, Sean; Franklin, Will; Straumann, Ralph. National results "UK 2015 general election results in full". The Guardian. 
  137. ^ "Number of known 2015 candidates per party". Your Next MP. Retrieved 12 May 2015. 
  138. ^ Election 2015: Number of women in Parliament rises by a third, BBC News, 8 May 2015.
  139. ^ Bloom, Dan (8 May 2015). "52 minutes that shook Britain: Miliband, Clegg and Farage all resign in election bloodbath". Mirror. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  140. ^ "Labour election results: Ed Miliband resigns as leader". BBC News. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  141. ^ "Election results: Nick Clegg resigns after Lib Dem losses". BBC News. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  142. ^ "UKIP Rejects Nigel Farage's Resignation". Sky News. 
  143. ^ "Nigel Farage to remain Ukip leader after resignation rejected". ITV News. 
  144. ^ Damien Gayle. "Alan Sugar resigns from Labour party over 'shift to left'". the Guardian. 
  145. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32760196
  146. ^ Peston, Robert (8 May 2015). "Shares and pound surge on election outcome". BBC News. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  147. ^ "Nigel Farage resigns as UKIP leader as the party vote rises". BBC News. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  148. ^ "Election 2015: Greens' Caroline Lucas wins in Brighton". BBC News. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  149. ^ "Arrests at anti-austerity protest outside Downing Street". ITV News. 
  150. ^ "Charlotte Church joins Cardiff protest rally". BBC News. 
  151. ^ "Anti-austerity protests hit Downing Street after UK general election [Photos]". International Business Times UK. 

External links[edit]

Polls and forecasts[edit]

Constitutional issues[edit]

News sites[edit]

Manifestos[edit]

Boundary Commissions[edit]