United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010

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United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010
Arkansas
2004 ←
November 2, 2010
→ 2016

  John Boozman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Lincoln-portrait-2007.jpg
Nominee John Boozman Blanche Lincoln
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 451,617 288,156
Percentage 57.9% 37.0%

Arkansas Senatorial Election Results by County, 2010.svg

County results

U.S. Senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, but lost to Republican nominee John Boozman. Boozman became the first Republican in 138 years to win this seat.

Democratic primary[edit]

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1–7.[1]

Candidates[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill Halter Blanche Lincoln Other Undecided
Research 2000 (report) November 30-Dec. 2, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 26% 42% 32%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 31% 44% 25%
Talk Business (report) April 13, 2010 1,167 ± 3.0% 31% 38% 10% 20%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5.0% 35% 43% 7% 15%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 5.0% 37% 46% 6% 11%
Research 2000 (report) May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 47% 44% 9%
Research 2000 (report) June 2–4, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (Incumbent) 146,579 44.5%
Democratic Bill Halter 140,081 42.5%
Democratic D.C. Morrison 42,695 13.0%
Totals 329,355 100%
Lincoln counties in blue, Halter counties in green.
Democratic primary runoff results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (Incumbent) 134,758 52.0%
Democratic Bill Halter 124,405 48.0%
Totals 259,163 100%

Republican primary[edit]

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates[edit]

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:[13]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling[edit]

Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gilbert Baker John Boozman Curtis Coleman Kim Hendren Jim Holt Other Undecided
Research 2000 ([1]) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4.0% 12% 46% 6% 19% 4% 13%
Talk Business ([2]) April 13, 2010 1,357 ± 3.0% 14% 46% 5% 3% 8% 7% 17%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Boozman 75,010 52.7%
Republican Jim Holt 24,826 17.5%
Republican Gilbert Baker 16,540 11.6%
Republican Conrad Reynolds 7,128 5.0%
Republican Curtis Coleman 6,928 4.9%
Republican Kim Hendren 5,551 3.9%
Republican Randy Alexander 4,389 3.1%
Republican Fred Ramey 1,888 1.3%
Totals 142,260 100%

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.[18] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.[19] The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.[20] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Libertarian Trevor Downs (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman of supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security.[21] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.[22]

Debates[edit]

Lincoln and Boozman agreed to two debates.

Predictions[edit]

Senate Ratings Table 2010 AR.svg

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Leans R[24] October 9, 2010
Rothenberg Leans R[25] October 8, 2010
Swing State Project Safe R[citation needed]
RealClearPolitics Safe R[26]
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R[27] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Leans R[28] October 9, 2010

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Boozman (R)
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 56% 33% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 54% 35% 4% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 48% 39% 6% 7%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 51% 36% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 57% 30% 9% 5%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5.0% 52% 42%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4.0% 54% 40%
Rasmussen Reports (report) May 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 66% 28% 2% 4%
Research 2000 (report) May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 58% 38% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 15, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 61% 32% 4% 3%
Magellan Strategies (report) July 12, 2010 879 ± 3.3% 60% 29% 4% 6%
Talk Business (report) July 17, 2010 793 ± 3.7% 57% 32% 5% 6%
Reuters/Ipsos (report) July 16–18, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 54% 35% 1% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 20, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 60% 35% 2% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 18, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 65% 27% 4% 3%
Mason-Dixon Polling (report) September 12–14, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 51% 34% 4% 11%
Reuters/Ipsos (report) September 17–19, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 53% 39% 1% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 55% 37% 3% 5%
Talk Business/Hendrix College (report) October 14, 2010 1,953 ± 2.2% 49% 36% 8% 7%
Mason-Dixon (report) October 15–19, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 55% 34% 6% 5%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) October 15–19, 2010 1,505 ± 2.5% 55% 41%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 55% 36% 5% 4%

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (Party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Blanche Lincoln (D) $9,508,007 $8,431,989 $1,886,132 $0
John Boozman (R) $1,452,241 $968,318 $483,923 $11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission[29]

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010[30]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Boozman 451,617 57.90% +13.83%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 288,156 36.95% -18.95%
Libertarian Trevor Drown 25,234 3.24% +3.24%
Green John Gray 14,430 1.85% +1.85%
Majority 163,461 20.95%
Total votes 779,437 100%
Turnout
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Election Dates and Deadlines". Secretary of State of Arkansas. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  2. ^ "CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2010. 
  3. ^ "Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln". KATV. March 15, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010. [dead link]
  4. ^ http://www.votenaturally.org/electionresults/index.php?ac:show:contest_statewide=1&elecid=211&contestid=3
  5. ^ "Arkansas Democratic Runoff Results". Politico. June 8, 2010. Retrieved June 8, 2010. 
  6. ^ Stewart, Martina (September 1, 2009). "Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid". CNN. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  7. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (January 29, 2010). "Boozman running against Lincoln". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  8. ^ Barr, Andy (June 15, 2009). "Tea party leader to run for Senate". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  9. ^ "Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate". KFSM-TV. April 20, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  10. ^ Lyon, John (January 14, 2010). "Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign". Arkansas News. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  11. ^ "Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate". KATV. June 23, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010. [dead link]
  12. ^ "'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds". WXVT. January 25, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  13. ^ Moritz, Rob (December 8, 2009). "Baker Upbeat After ‘Straw Poll’ Win". Southwest Times Record. Retrieved January 30, 2010. 
  14. ^ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-06-07. 
  15. ^ "The Courier, Russellville, Ark". Couriernews.com. 2009-07-27. Retrieved 2010-06-07. 
  16. ^ "Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas". Trevordrown.ning.com. 2010-01-31. Retrieved 2010-06-07. 
  17. ^ "John Gray for U.S. Senate". John Gray for U.S. Senate. Retrieved 2010-06-07. 
  18. ^ Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
  19. ^ DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Business Week, April 1, 2010.
  20. ^ www.realclearpolitics.com
  21. ^ http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9HHA59G0.htm
  22. ^ http://washingtonindependent.com/96282/the-earmark-wars-continue-in-arkansas
  23. ^ http://www.swtimes.com/news/article_5acdc3fa-aace-11df-ad54-001cc4c002e0.html
  24. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010. 
  25. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010. 
  26. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 9, 2010. 
  27. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 9, 2010. 
  28. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 9, 2010. 
  29. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010. 
  30. ^ http://www.votenaturally.org/electionresults/index.php?ac:show:contest_statewide=1&elecid=231&contestid=18

External links[edit]

Debates
Official campaign sites