United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2010

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United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2010
North Carolina
2004 ←
November 2, 2010
→ 2016

  Richard Burr official photo.jpg
Nominee Richard Burr Elaine Marshall
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,458,046 1,145,074
Percentage 54.81% 43.05%

North Carolina Senatorial Election Results by County, 2010.svg

County results

U.S. Senator before election

Richard Burr
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Burr
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 2, 2010. The filing deadline for the primaries was February 26; the primaries were held on May 4, with a Democratic primary runoff held on June 22.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Richard Burr won re-election to a second term. Burr is the first incumbent to win re-election for this seat since Sam Ervin's last re-election in 1968.[2] Burr's 54.8% also represented the highest vote share a North Carolina Republican has received since the state began directly electing its Senators.

Background[edit]

This Senate seat has been notoriously unfavorable to incumbents over the past several decades. No person elected to this seat has been re-elected since Sam Ervin in 1968. His successor, Democrat Robert Burren Morgan, was defeated for re-election in 1980, along with many other incumbents from his party. His Republican successor, John Porter East, committed suicide in 1986. East's appointed replacement, Jim Broyhill, served for just four months, resigning upon his November 1986 election loss to former Democratic Governor Terry Sanford. In 1992, the seat changed hands yet again, as Sanford was defeated by wealthy GOP businessman Lauch Faircloth, who was denied a second term six years later by John Edwards. In 2004, no incumbent was defeated, as Edwards was running for vice president and was not allowed to be on the ballot in both races. However, that year the seat did change parties for the fifth time in a row, with Richard Burr defeating Bill Clinton's onetime Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles.

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

From the North Carolina State Board of Elections:[3]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered Elaine Marshall Cal Cunningham Kenneth Lewis
Public Policy Polling May 8–10, 2010 36% 36% ––
Rasmussen Reports May 4, 2010 42% 37% ––
Public Policy Polling May 1–2, 2010 28% 21% 9%
Public Policy Polling April 27, 2010 26% 23% 7%
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA April 25, 2010 23% 19% 10%
Public Policy Polling April 8–11, 2010 23% 17% 9%
Public Policy Polling March 12–15, 2010 20% 16% 11%
Public Policy Polling February 15, 2010 29% 12% 5%
Marshall December 1, 2009 42% 5% 7%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results - May 4, 2010*[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elaine Marshall 154,605 36.4%
Democratic Cal Cunningham 115,851 27.3%
Democratic Ken Lewis 72,510 17.1%
Democratic Marcus W. Williams 35,984 8.5%
Democratic Susan Harris 29,738 7.0%
Democratic Ann Worthy 16,655 3.9%
Totals 425,343 100%

* Note: Since no candidate received 40% of the vote on May 4, state law allowed a runoff (or "second primary") election if requested by the second-place finisher. Cunningham requested such a runoff.[11]

Democratic primary runoff results - June 22, 2010[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elaine Marshall 95,390 60.0%
Democratic Cal Cunningham 63,691 40.0%
Totals 159,081 100%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered Richard Burr Brad Jones Eddie Burks
Survey USA April 26, 2010 59% 6% 3%
Public Policy Polling April 8–11, 2010 67% 7% 3%
Public Policy Polling March 12–15, 2010 58% 5% 4%
Public Policy Polling February 15, 2010 55% 10% 3%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results - May 4, 2010[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Richard Burr 297,993 80.1%
Republican Brad Jones 37,616 10.1%
Republican Eddie Burks 22,111 5.9%
Republican Larry Linney 14,248 3.8%
Totals 371,968 100%

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Marshall has been endorsed by The Charlotte Observer, The Wilmington Star-News, the Elizabeth City Daily Advance and The Southern Pines Pilot.[16] Burr has been endorsed by Greensboro News & Record,[17] and the Asheville Citizen-Times.[18]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Likely R[22] October 23, 2010
Rothenberg R favored[23] October 22, 2010
Swing State Project Likely R[citation needed]
RealClearPolitics Likely R[24] October 23, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R[25] October 21, 2010
CQ Politics Likely R[26] October 23, 2010

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered MoE Richard Burr (R) Elaine Marshall (D) Michael Beitler (L)
Public Policy Polling October 29–31, 2010 ± 3.4% 52% 40% 2%
SurveyUSA October 22–25, 2010 ± 4.1% 53% 38% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 15–17, 2010 ± 4.0% 48% 40% 3%
Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2010 ± 4.5% 52% 38% ––
High Point University September 25–30, 2010 ± 5.0% 45% 31% 4%
Public Polling Policy September 23–26, 2010 ± 3.8% 49% 36% 4%
Civitas September 15–17, 2010 ± 4.0% 49% 29% 3%
SurveyUSA September 14, 2010 ± 4.1% 58% 32% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 8, 2010 ± 4.5% 54% 38% ––
Public Policy Polling August 27–29, 2010 ± 3.6% 43% 38% 6%
Rasmussen Reports August 3, 2010 ± 4.5% 49% 40% ––
Public Policy Polling July 27–31, 2010 ± 3.9% 39% 37% 7%
Lake Research July 15–19, 2010 ± 4.0% 35% 37% 5%
Survey USA July 8–11, 2010 ± 4.2% 46% 36% 6%
Rasmussen Reports July 6, 2010 ± 4.5% 52% 37% ––
Public Policy Polling June 26–27, 2010 ± 4.4% 38% 33% 10%
SurveyUSA June 23–24, 2010 ± 4.0% 50% 40% 6%
Rasmussen Reports June 23, 2010 ± 4.5% 44% 43% ––
Public Policy Polling June 4–6, 2010 ± 3.9% 46% 39% ––
Rasmussen Reports June 3, 2010 ± 3.0% 50% 36% ––
Public Policy Polling May 8–10, 2010 ± 3.9% 43% 42% ––
Rasmussen Reports May 5, 2010 ± 4.5% 48% 40% ––
Rasmussen Reports April 19, 2010 ± 4.5% 50% 32% ––
Rasmussen Reports March 22, 2010 ± 4.5% 51% 35% ––
Rasmussen Reports February 23, 2010 ± 4.5% 50% 34% ––
Public Policy Polling February 12–15, 2010 ± 3.5% 43% 33% ––
Rasmussen Reports January 27, 2010 ± 4.5% 47% 37% ––
Public Policy Polling January 15–18, 2010 ± 3.8% 44% 37% ––
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2009 ± 4.0% 42% 37% ––
Public Policy Polling November 9–11, 2009 ± 3.7% 45% 34% ––
Public Policy Polling October 2–4, 2009 ± 3.8% 44% 32% ––
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2009 ± 4.5% 48% 38% ––
Public Policy Polling September 2–8, 2009 ± 4.0% 42% 31% ––
Public Policy Polling August 4–10, 2009 ± 3.6% 43% 31% ––
Public Policy Polling March 12–15, 2009 ± 3.1% 43% 35% ––

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Richard Burr (R) $8,444,115 $8,735,725 $1,600,695 $0
Elaine Marshall (D) $2,561,900 $2,229,840 $329,886 $71,500
Michael Beitler (L) $16,302 $9,951 $6,350 $11,906
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2010[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Richard Burr (incumbent) 1,458,046 54.81% +3.21%
Democratic Elaine Marshall 1,145,074 43.05% -3.97%
Libertarian Mike Beitler 55,682 2.09% +0.72%
Majority 312,972 11.76%
Total votes 2,660,079 100.0%
Republican hold Swing

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "State Board of Elections Calendar". Sboe.state.nc.us. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  2. ^ Election 2010: North Carolina Senate, Rasmussen Reports, March 24, 2010.
  3. ^ a b "State Board of Elections: Candidate Filing List". Sboe.state.nc.us. 2010-02-26. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  4. ^ "Democrats expand their search for Burr challenger". 2009-03-10. 
  5. ^ "News & Observer blog: Marshall running for U.S. Senate". Projects.newsobserver.com. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  6. ^ "NC-Sen: Democrats get Cunningham". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 27, 2010. 
  7. ^ McArdle, John. "Good News, Bad Timing on N.C. Senate Race". CQ Politics. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  8. ^ Christensen, Rob. "News & Observer: 2nd-tier Senate hopefuls soldier on". Newsobserver.com. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  9. ^ "News & Observer: Durham lawyer eyes Burr seat". Projects.newsobserver.com. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  10. ^ a b c "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  11. ^ "News & Observer: Cunningham wants a runoff". Projects.newsobserver.com. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  12. ^ "Asheboro council member to challenge Burr". News & Record. January 21, 2010. Retrieved February 10, 2010. 
  13. ^ "Western NC businessman files for Senate race". The Sun News. February 16, 2010. Retrieved February 27, 2010. [dead link]
  14. ^ "He's at it again: Larry Linney files for U.S. Senate run". Asheville Citizen-Times. March 2, 2010. Retrieved March 2, 2010. [dead link]
  15. ^ Bryan School directory
  16. ^ Marshall Nabs Key Newspaper Endorsements | Elaine Marshall for U.S. Senate
  17. ^ Editorial: Burr for Senate : News-Record.com : Greensboro & the Triad's most trusted source for local news and analysis
  18. ^ Tar Heels need a senator who can say yes | The Asheville Citizen-Times | citizen-times.com
  19. ^ News | The Asheville Citizen-Times | citizen-times.com
  20. ^ http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/14/1872917/nc-senate-candidates-burr-marshall.html
  21. ^ http://www.kentucky.com/2010/10/21/1490193/burr-marshall-hold-testy-debate.html#ixzz1406x6Vat
  22. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  23. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  24. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  25. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  26. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  27. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Carolina". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010. 
  28. ^ NC - Election Results

External links[edit]

Debates
Official campaign sites