United States Senate elections, 2016

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United States Senate elections, 2016
United States
2014 ←
November 8, 2016
→ 2018
Class 3 (34 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate
51 seats needed for a majority

2016 Senate election map.svg

Senate Seats up for election:
  Democratic incumbent
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  Undetermined incumbent
  No election

Majority Leader before election

TBD

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2017 until January 3, 2023. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 114th United States Congress. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

The 2016 Presidential election, House elections, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.

Composition[edit]

The composition of the Senate going into the 2016 election will depend on the result of the 2014 elections. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there will be 10 Democrats, 23 Republicans, and 1 undetermined seat in South Carolina.

There may be some additional changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2010 and 2016, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Early predictions[edit]

     Democratic-favored seat      Competitive Democratic-held seat
     Republican-favored seat      Competitive Republican-held seat

Seats that are predicted to be competitive include Republican-held seats in Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Democratic-held seats in Colorado and Nevada.[1][2][3] Democrats may also target seats in Republican-leaning states such as Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Alaska, South Dakota, and Arkansas, particularly if incumbents in these states retire or face strong primary challengers.[4][5] Other seats may also become competitive.

Summary[edit]

There are 34 Senators up for election this year as members of the class 3 Senators. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there are 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans.

There may be some changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2014 and 2016, there may be additional special elections. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Shading indicates party with largest share of that line.

Parties Total
Democratic Republican Independent
Last election (2014) TBD TBD 2 100
Before this election TBD TBD 2 100
Not up TBD TBD TBD TBD
Class 1 (20122018) 23 8 2 33
Class 2 (20142020) TBD TBD TBD TBD
Up 9-11 23-25 34
General: Class 3 9-11 23-25 34
Incumbent retiring 0 1 1
Incumbent running 1 7 8
Intent undeclared 8-10 17-25 27

Race summary[edit]

State
(linked to
summaries below)
Incumbent Most recent election results 2016 intent Candidates
Senator Party Electoral
history
Alabama Richard Shelby Republican 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Richard Shelby (R) 65.3%
William G. Barnes (D) 34.7%
Running[6] Richard Shelby
Alaska Lisa Murkowski Republican 2002 (appointed)
2004
2010
Lisa Murkowski (R) (write-in) 39.3%
Joe Miller (R) 35.3%
Scott McAdams (D) 24.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Arizona John McCain Republican 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
John McCain (R) 59.2%
Rodney Glassman (D) 34.7%
Undecided[7] [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Arkansas John Boozman Republican 2010 John Boozman (R) 58.0%
Blanche Lincoln (D) 36.9%
Running[8] John Boozman
California Barbara Boxer Democratic 1992
1998
2004
2010
Barbara Boxer (D) 52.1%
Carly Fiorina (R) 42.5%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Colorado Michael Bennet Democratic 2009 (Appointed)
2010
Michael Bennet (D) 47.7%
Ken Buck (R) 46.5%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal Democratic 2010 Richard Blumenthal (D) 55.1%
Linda McMahon (R) 43.3%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Florida Marco Rubio Republican 2010 Marco Rubio (R) 48.9%
Charlie Crist (I) 29.7%
Kendrick Meek (D) 20.1%
Undecided or undeclared Lateresa Jones
Georgia Johnny Isakson Republican 2004
2010
Johnny Isakson (R) 58.1%
Michael Thurmond (D) 39.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Hawaii To be determined in the 2014 special election Daniel Inouye (D) 74.8%
Campbell Cavasso (R) 21.6%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help!] [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Idaho Mike Crapo Republican 1998
2004
2010
Mike Crapo (R) 71.1%
Tom Sullivan (D) 25.0%
Running[9] Mike Crapo
Illinois Mark Kirk Republican 2010 Mark Kirk (R) 48.2%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46.3%
Running[10] Mark Kirk
Indiana Dan Coats Republican 2010 Dan Coats (R) 56.4%
Brad Ellsworth (D) 38.1%
Rebecca Sink-Burris (L) 5.4%
Running[11] Dan Coats
Iowa Chuck Grassley Republican 1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Chuck Grassley (R) 64.5%
Roxanne Conlin (D) 33.2%
Running[12][dead link] Chuck Grassley
Kansas Jerry Moran Republican 2010 Jerry Moran (R) 70.3%
Lisa Johnston (D) 26.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Kentucky Rand Paul Republican 2010 Rand Paul (R) 55.8%
Jack Conway (D) 44.2%
Running[13] Rand Paul
Louisiana David Vitter Republican 2004
2010
David Vitter (R) 56.6%
Charles Melancon (D) 37.7%
Running for Governor of Louisiana in 2015[14] [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Maryland Barbara Mikulski Democratic 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Barbara Mikulski (D) 61.8%
Eric Wargotz (R) 36.3%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Missouri Roy Blunt Republican 2010 Roy Blunt (R) 54.3%
Robin Carnahan (D) 40.6%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Nevada Harry Reid Democratic 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Harry Reid (D) 50.2%
Sharron Angle (R) 44.6%
Running[15] Harry Reid
New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte Republican 2010 Kelly Ayotte (R) 60.2%
Paul Hodes (D) 36.7%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
New York Chuck Schumer Democratic 1998
2004
2010
Chuck Schumer (D) 65.4%
Jay Townsend (R) 33.0%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
North Carolina Richard Burr Republican 2004
2010
Richard Burr (R) 55.0%
Elaine Marshall (D) 42.9%
Running[16] Richard Burr
North Dakota John Hoeven Republican 2010 John Hoeven (R) 76.2%
Tracy Potter (D) 22.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Ohio Rob Portman Republican 2010 Rob Portman (R) 57.3%
Lee Fisher (D) 39.0%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Oklahoma To be determined in the 2014 special election Tom Coburn (R) 70.5%
Jim Rogers (D) 26.1%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help!] [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Oregon Ron Wyden Democratic 1996 (special)
1998
2004
2010
Ron Wyden (D) 57.2%
Jim Huffman (R) 39.4%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey Republican 2010 Pat Toomey (R) 51.01%
Joe Sestak (D) 48.99%
Undecided or undeclared Joe Sestak[17]
South Carolina To be determined in the 2014 special election Jim DeMint (R) 62.4%
Alvin Greene (D) 28.2%
Tom Clements (G) 9.2%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help!] [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
South Dakota John Thune Republican 2004
2010
John Thune (R) Unopposed Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Utah Mike Lee Republican 2010 Mike Lee (R) 61.6%
Sam Granato (D) 32.8%
Scott Bradley (C) 5.7%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Vermont Patrick Leahy Democratic 1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Patrick Leahy (D) 64.4%
Len Britton (R) 30.9%
Running[18] Patrick Leahy
Washington Patty Murray Democratic 1992
1998
2004
2010
Patty Murray (D) 52.4%
Dino Rossi (R) 47.6%
Running[19] Patty Murray
Wisconsin Ron Johnson Republican 2010 Ron Johnson (R) 51.9%
Russ Feingold (D) 47.0%
Running[20] Ron Johnson
State
(linked to
summaries below)
Senator Party Electoral
history
Most recent election results 2016 intent Candidates
Incumbent

Complete list of races[edit]

Thirty-four seats are up for election in 2016:

  • Two Democrats are seeking re-election.
  • Eight Democrats may seek re-election.
  • One Republican is retiring.
  • Five Republicans are seeking re-election.
  • Eighteen Republicans may seek re-election.

Alabama[edit]

Five-term Senator Richard Shelby was re-elected with 65.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 82 years old in 2016. He served in the Senate as a Democrat until switching parties in 1994. Shelby intends to run for re-election.[6] If Shelby vacates the seat, potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representative Martha Roby,[21] State Senator Del Marsh, former Governor Bob Riley, Attorney General Luther Strange, State House Speaker Mike Hubbard, State Treasurer Young Boozer and Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey. Potential Democratic candidates include former Congressman Bobby Bright, non-profit executive Stephen Black, and former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb.[22]

Alaska[edit]

Two-term Senator Lisa Murkowski was appointed in 2002 and elected to a full term in 2004. She was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Joe Miller. She later ran as a write-in candidate in the 2010 general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39% of the vote. She is one of only two senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond. She will be 59 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidate include state Senator Dennis Egan, state Representative Andy Josephson, state Senator Bill Wielechowski, state Senator Hollis French, and state Senate Minority Leader Johnny Ellis.[23]

Arizona[edit]

Five-term Senator and 2008 Republican Presidential nominee John McCain was re-elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 80 years old in 2016. McCain has hinted that he may retire.[24] He further said he is considering running for re-election.[25]

Potential Republican candidates include term-limited Governor Jan Brewer,[26] Martha McSally,[27] former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods, and Congressmen Trent Franks, Matt Salmon, and John Shadegg.[28] Potential Democratic candidates include former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords,[29] former Governor Janet Napolitano, astronaut Mark Kelly, Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.[28]

A Public Policy Polling survey from February and March 2014 found McCain trailing Carmona 35% to 41% and Giffords 35% to 42%, but leading Napolitano 44% to 36%.[30]

Arkansas[edit]

One-term Senator John Boozman defeated two-term Senator Blanche Lincoln with 58.0% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016. He could possibly retire after being taken to the hospital in 2014 for an emergency heart surgery.[31] However, he announced that he will run for re-election.[32] Potential Democratic candidates include Governor Mike Beebe, former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel.[33] A Public Policy Polling survey in August 2014 found Beebe leading Boozman 46% to 40%[34] and a survey in September 2014 found Beebe leading Boozman 49% to 39%.[35]

California[edit]

Four-term Senator Barbara Boxer was re-elected with 52.1% of the vote in 2010. She will be 75 years old in 2016. Her low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers mean that she is speculated to retire.[36]

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg was speculated to run against Boxer as a Democrat,[37] but she will not do so.[38] Potential Democratic candidates include Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, California Attorney General Kamala Harris, businessman Tom Steyer, Mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti, California State Controller and candidate for California State Treasurer in 2014 John Chiang and President of the University of California, former United States Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Arizona Janet Napolitano.[36]

Potential Republican candidates include former Governor of California and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger,[39] and U.S. Representative Darrell Issa. Businesswoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 Carly Fiorina will not run.[40]

Colorado[edit]

One-term Senator Michael Bennet was appointed in 2009 and elected to a full term with 47.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 51 years old in 2016.

Connecticut[edit]

One-term Senator Richard Blumenthal was elected with 55.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 70 years old in 2016.

Florida[edit]

One-term Senator Marco Rubio was elected in a three-way race with 48.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Rubio may run for President in 2016.[41][42][43] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.[44] Former Republican Congressman Allen West may challenge Rubio in the primary[45] and has said that he will definitely run for the Senate if Rubio runs for President.[46] Other potential Republican candidates are Chief Financial Officer of Florida Jeff Atwater,[47] U.S. Representative Ron DeSantis, former U.S. Senator George LeMieux, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam, U.S. Representative Tom Rooney and Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Will Weatherford.[48]

Potential Democratic candidates include Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown, Congressman Ted Deutch, DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink.[49]

Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in September 2013 found Rubio leading Sink 45% to 42% and leading Wasserman Schultz 46% to 43%. West trailed Sink 44% to 38% and Wasserman Schultz 44% to 40%.[50]

Georgia[edit]

Two-term Senator Johnny Isakson was re-elected with 58.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 71 years old in 2016. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed has ruled out a run.[51] Potential Democratic candidates include State Representatives Scott Holcomb, Stacey Abrams, and James Beverly, and State Senators Doug Stoner and Jason Carter.[52]

Hawaii[edit]

Nine-term Senator and President pro tempore Daniel Inouye was re-elected with 75% of the vote in 2010. He continuously represented Hawaii in Congress after it achieved statehood in 1959 and would have been 92 years old in 2016. He intended to run for re-election to a tenth term[53] but he died on December 17, 2012.[54] Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz in his place.

Idaho[edit]

Three-term Senator Mike Crapo was re-elected with 71.1% of the vote in 2010. Crapo will be 65 years old in 2016. He announced that he will run for re-election to a fourth term.[9] U.S Representative Raul Labrador may challenge Crapo in the primary.[55]

Illinois[edit]

One-term Senator Mark Kirk was elected with 48.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 57 years old in 2016.

Kirk suffered a stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[56] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[57] but there has been some speculation that he might retire.[58] If Kirk retires, potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representatives Adam Kinzinger and Aaron Schock.[58]

For the Democrats, former director of CeaseFire and candidate for Governor in 2014 Tio Hardiman is a declared candidate.[59] Lieutenant Governor of Illinois Sheila Simon and Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan are potential candidates,[60] as are U.S. Representatives Cheri Bustos, Robin Kelly, Tammy Duckworth, Jan Schakowsky, Bill Foster and Mike Quigley.[58][61] However, First Lady Michelle Obama has ruled out running.[62]

Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in November 2012 showed Michelle Obama beating Kirk 50% to 41%[63] and polling they conducted in November 2013 showed Kirk tied with Madigan 41% to 41%.[64] A Gravis Marketing poll conducted in March 2014 showed Kirk beating Michelle Obama 47% to 42%.[65]

Indiana[edit]

Three-term non-consecutive, one-term consecutive Senator Dan Coats was elected with 54.6% of the vote in 2010. He previously represented Indiana in the Senate between 1989 and 1999. He will be 73 years old in 2016. Coats is preparing to seek re-election, [11] but has yet to decide whether he will run again. Potential Democratic candidates include former Representative and 2010 Democratic Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth, former Senator Evan Bayh, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel.[66]

Iowa[edit]

Six-term Senator Chuck Grassley was re-elected with 64.5% of the vote in 2010. He will be 83 years old in 2016. Grassley plans on running for re-election.[67] U.S. Representatives Steve King and Tom Latham could be Republican candidates if Grassley changes his mind and retires, while U.S. Representative Dave Loebsack and United States Secretary of Agriculture and former Governor Tom Vilsack could run for the Democrats.[68] Democrat Bob Krause, a former State Representative and a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010, has declared his candidacy.[69]

Kansas[edit]

One-term Senator Jerry Moran was elected with 70.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 62 years old in 2016. Radiologist and 2014 Senate candidate Milton Wolf may challenge Moran in the primary.[70]

Kentucky[edit]

One-term Senator Rand Paul was elected with 55.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 53 years old in 2016. Paul has already filed for re-election,[13] although he has also publicly expressed interest in running for president in 2016.[71] If he does become the Republican nominee, state law prohibits him from simultaneously running for re-election.[72] In March 2014, Kentucky's Republican-controlled senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled house may not pass the bill.[44]

Potential Republican candidates include Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner James Comer and former Secretary of State Trey Grayson, along with Representatives Brett Guthrie, Thomas Massie,[73] and Ed Whitfield. Attorney General Jack Conway, State Auditor Adam Edelen and Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes are potential Democratic candidates.[74][75]

An August 2014 survey by Public Policy Polling found Paul leading Democratic Governor Steve Beshear 50% to 41% and Thomas Massie trailing Beshear 30% to 45%.[76]

Louisiana[edit]

Two-term Senator David Vitter was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016. Vitter is running for Governor of Louisiana in 2015.[14] Potential Republican candidates include Representatives Jeff Landry, Charles Boustany, and John Fleming, while potential Democratic candidates include state legislators John Bel Edwards, Katrina Jackson, and Karen Carter Peterson.[77]

Maryland[edit]

Five-term Senator Barbara Mikulski was re-elected with 61.8% of the vote in 2010. She will be 80 years old in 2016. She is the longest-serving female senator and the longest-serving woman in the history of the U.S. Congress. Former Johns Hopkins Neurosurgery Director Ben Carson is a potential candidate.[78]

Missouri[edit]

One-term Senator Roy Blunt was elected with 54.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 66 years old in 2016. Governor Jay Nixon will not run.[79] State Treasurer Clint Zweifel is a potential Democratic candidate.[80]

Nevada[edit]

Five-term Senator and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was re-elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016. He will seek re-election.[15] Republican Bob Beers, a Las Vegas City Councilman, former State Senator and candidate for Governor in 2006 is running.[81] Brian Sandoval, the Governor of Nevada, has been mentioned as a possible opponent.[82] 2010 Republican nominee Sharron Angle may run again.[83] Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarian Party nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008, has re-joined the Republican Party and is considering running for the seat.[84][85] Other potential Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, Congressman Joe Heck[86] and State Senators Mark Hutchison and Michael Roberson.[87]

New Hampshire[edit]

One-term Senator Kelly Ayotte was elected with 60.2% of the vote in 2010. She will be 48 years old in 2016. Ayotte is considered a potential Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2016.[88] Governor Maggie Hassan is a potential Democratic candidate,[88] as are Congresswomen Ann McLane Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter. Former Democratic governor John Lynch will not run.[89] Ayotte may also face a primary challenge from the Tea Party.[88]

New York[edit]

Three-term Senator Chuck Schumer was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016.

North Carolina[edit]

Two-term Senator Richard Burr was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2010. He will be 60 years old in 2016. There has been speculation that Burr may retire,[90] but he said in September 2014 that he was "planning" on running.[16]

If Burr changes his mind and retires, potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representatives George Holding, Mark Meadows and Robert Pittenger, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate Philip E. Berger, former United States Ambassador to Denmark James P. Cain and physician and Tea Party activist Greg Brannon.[90][16]

Anthony Foxx, the United States Secretary of Transportation and former Mayor of Charlotte, is a potential Democratic candidate,[91] but has indicated to Burr that he won't run against him.[16] Other potential Democratic candidates include State Treasurer Janet Cowell, State Senate Minority Leader Daniel T. Blue, Jr., State Senator Josh Stein, State Representative Grier Martin and Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarlane.[90]

Potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representative U.S. Representative Mark Meadows and U.S. Representative George Holding.[90]

Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in August 2014 found Burr leading Cowell 44% to 37%, leading Foxx 45% to 35%, leading Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines 45% to 32% and leading State Representative Grier Martin 45% to 33%.[92]

North Dakota[edit]

One-term Senator John Hoeven was elected with 76.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 59 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidates include state Senator George B. Sinner, state Representative Corey Mock, and USDA State Director Jasper Schneider.[93]

Ohio[edit]

One-term Senator Rob Portman was elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 60 years old in 2016. Portman is considered a potential candidate for President and Vice President in 2016.[94][95][96] He has ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[97] Potential Republican candidates if Portman vacates the seat include Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel and U.S. Representative Steve Stivers.[94]

Democratic State Representative Bob Hagan has filed papers to run. Other potential Democratic candidates include Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray, former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, U.S. Representatives Joyce Beatty and Tim Ryan, former U.S. Representatives John Boccieri and Betty Sutton, Columbus Mayor Michael B. Coleman, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, State Senator Nina Turner, State Representative Connie Pillich and Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld.[94][98] Former Governor Ted Strickland has ruled out running but Democrats have said "the race is his to choose".[99][100]

Oklahoma[edit]

Two-term Senator Tom Coburn was re-elected with 70.64% of the vote in 2010. Coburn is resigning in January 2015 and a special election is being held while he is still in office. U.S. Representative James Lankford is the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee is Constance N. Johnson. The winner will serve the remainder of Coburn's term and be the incumbent in this regular 2016 election.[101]

Former Congressman Dan Boren is viewed by some Oklahoma political operatives as the only Democrat who could make the 2016 race competitive, but is seen as unlikely to run.[102]

Oregon[edit]

Three-term Senator Ron Wyden was re-elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 67 years old in 2016.

Pennsylvania[edit]

One-term Senator Pat Toomey was elected with 51% of the vote in 2010. He will be 54 years old in 2016. Former Congressman Joe Sestak, the 2010 Democratic nominee, has formed an exploratory committee.[17] Other potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representative Matt Cartwright, Chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane,[103] U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz, State Treasurer Rob McCord, and former Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Katie McGinty.[104]

South Carolina[edit]

Two-term Senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013, and Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st district was appointed to replace him by Governor Haley.[105] A special election will be held in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term; the 2016 election will then be for a full six-year term. Scott is seen as the likely winner of the 2014 election, and may run as the incumbent in 2016, although he is also a potential Republican vice presidential nominee.[106][107] If Scott does not seek re-election, potential Republican candidates include Congressmen Mick Mulvaney,[108] Jeff Duncan, and Mark Sanford, along with state senator Tom Davis, state Treasurer Curtis Loftis, and state Attorney General Alan Wilson.[106] Darla Moore has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for either party.[106]

South Dakota[edit]

Two-term Senator John Thune ran unopposed and was re-elected with 100% in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016. Thune may run for president in 2016 or he might decide to retire. Congresswoman Kristi Noem is a potential Republican candidate, while former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and US Attorney Brendan Johnson are potential Democratic candidates.[109]

Utah[edit]

One-term Senator Mike Lee was elected with 61.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Former Republican state party chair Thomas Wright, former State Senator Dan Liljenquist, Attorney General Sean Reyes, Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox, state senator Aaron Osmond, state house speaker Becky Lockhart, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, Congressman Chris Stewart, and Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney may challenge Lee in the primary.[110][111][112] Congressman Jim Matheson is a potential Democratic candidate, although he may instead choose to run for governor.[112]

Vermont[edit]

Seven-term Senator Patrick Leahy was re-elected with 64.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016. Leahy plans to seek re-election.[113]

Washington[edit]

Four-term Senator Patty Murray was re-elected with 52.15% of the vote in 2010. She will be 66 years old in 2016. Murray plans to seek re-election. Congressman Dave Reichert is a potential Republican candidate.[114][115]

Wisconsin[edit]

One-term Senator Ron Johnson defeated three-term Senator Russ Feingold with 51.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 61 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidates include Feingold and Congressman Ron Kind.[116] Polling by Public Policy Polling in February 2013 showed Johnson losing a re-match to Feingold, 52% to 42%.[117]

References[edit]

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  2. ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (November 28, 2012). "Supermajority Within Reach for Senate Democrats". Roll Call. Retrieved September 19, 2013. 
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  4. ^ Kondik, Kyle (May 5, 2014). "10 Maps That Explain the 2014 Midterms". Politico. Retrieved May 6, 2014. 
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  8. ^ DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014. 
  9. ^ a b Associated Press (August 17, 2014). "Sen. Mike Crapo will seek re-election in 2016 for 4th term". KBOI. Retrieved August 29, 2014. 
  10. ^ McClelland, Edward. "Kirk Running for Re-Election, Says Pat Brady". nbcchicago.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013. 
  11. ^ a b Bradner, Eric. "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com. Retrieved March 6, 2014. 
  12. ^ http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2013/09/20/breaking-iowas-chuck-grassley-i-am-running-for-re-election/article?nclick_check=1
  13. ^ a b Jennifer Epstein (April 19, 2011). "Rand Paul files for reelection race five years away". Politico. 
  14. ^ a b Sullivan, Sean (January 21, 2014). "David Vitter, political survivor". Washington Post. Retrieved January 22, 2014. 
  15. ^ a b Meredith Shiner (August 7, 2012). "Nevada: Harry Reid to Retire … in 2016?". Roll Call. 
  16. ^ a b c d "Rumors Aside, Burr Says He'll Run Again". National Journal. September 15, 2014. Retrieved September 22, 2014. 
  17. ^ a b Weiner, Rachel. "Joe Sestak planning Senate campaign". Washingtonpost.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013. 
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