United States Senate elections, 2018

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United States Senate elections, 2018
United States
2016 ←
November 6, 2018
→ 2020
Class 1 (33 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate
51 seats needed for a majority

2018 Senate election map.svg

Senate seats up for election:
  Democratic incumbent
  Independent incumbent
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  No election

Majority Leader before election

TBD

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 6, 2018, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2019 until January 3, 2025. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 23 seats up for election, in addition to 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats. Republicans are expected to have 8 seats up for election. The seats up for election in 2018 were last up for election in 2012, although some seats may have special elections if incumbents die or resign. Democrats had a net gain of 2 seats in the 2012 Senate elections.

The elections to the United States House of Representatives, elections for governors in states and territories, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.

Composition[edit]

The composition of the Senate going into the 2018 election will depend on the results of the 2014 and 2016 elections. Among the senators up for election in 2018, there will be 23 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with Democrats, and 8 Republicans.

There may be some additional changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2012 and 2018, there may be additional special elections before or during the 2018 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Early predictions[edit]

Democrats are expected to target the Senate seat in Nevada, while Republicans are expected to target Democratic-held seats in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia.[1][2] Other races may also become competitive.

  Competitive Democratic-held seat
  Competitive Republican-held seat
  Democratic-favored seat
  Republican-favored seat

Race summary[edit]

State
(linked to
summaries below)
Incumbent Most recent election results 2018 intent Candidates
Senator Party Electoral
history
Arizona Jeff Flake Republican Jeff Flake (R) 49.2%
Richard Carmona (D) 46.1%
Marc Victor (L) 4.6%
2012
California Dianne Feinstein Democratic Dianne Feinstein (D) 62.5%
Elizabeth Emken (R) 37.5%
1992 (special)
1994
2000
2006
2012
Connecticut Chris Murphy Democratic Chris Murphy (D) 54.8%
Linda McMahon (R) 43.1%
Paul Passarelli (L) 1.7%
2012
Delaware Tom Carper Democratic Tom Carper (D) 66.4%
Kevin L. Wade (R) 29.0%
Alex Pires (I) 3.8%
2000
2006
2012
Florida Bill Nelson Democratic Bill Nelson (D) 55.2%
Connie Mack IV (R) 42.2%
2000
2006
2012
Hawaii Mazie Hirono Democratic Mazie Hirono (D) 62.6%
Linda Lingle (R) 37.4%
2012
Indiana Joe Donnelly Democratic Joe Donnelly (D) 50.0%
Richard Mourdock (R) 44.2%
Andrew Horning (L) 5.7%
2012
Maine Angus King Independent Angus King (I) 52.9%
Charles E. Summers, Jr. (R) 30.7%
Cynthia Dill (D) 13.3%
2012
Maryland Ben Cardin Democratic Ben Cardin (D) 56.0%
Dan Bongino (R) 26.3%
S. Rob Sobhani (I) 16.4%
2006
2012
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren Democratic Elizabeth Warren (D) 53.7%
Scott Brown (R) 46.3%
2012
Michigan Debbie Stabenow Democratic Debbie Stabenow (D) 58.8%
Pete Hoekstra (R) 38.0%
Scotty Boman (L) 1.8%
2000
2006
2012
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Democratic Amy Klobuchar (D) 65.2%
Kurt Bills (R) 30.5%
Stephen Williams (Independence) 2.6%
2006
2012
Mississippi Roger Wicker Republican Roger Wicker (R) 57.2%
Albert N. Gore, Jr. (D) 40.6%
Thomas Cramer (C) 1.2%
Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 1%
2008 (special)
2012
Missouri Claire McCaskill Democratic Claire McCaskill (D) 54.8%
Todd Akin (R) 39.0%
Jonathan Dine (L) 6.1%
2006
2012
Montana Jon Tester Democratic Jon Tester (D) 48.6%
Denny Rehberg (R) 44.9%
Dan Cox (L) 6.6%
2006
2012
Nebraska Deb Fischer Republican Deb Fischer (R) 57.8%
Bob Kerrey (D) 42.2%
2012
Nevada Dean Heller Republican Dean Heller (R) 45.9%
Shelley Berkley (D) 44.7%
David Lory VanderBeek (C) 4.9%
None of These Candidates 4.5%
2012
New Jersey Bob Menendez Democratic Bob Menendez (D) 58.9%
Joe Kyrillos (R) 39.4%
2006
2012
New Mexico Martin Heinrich Democratic Martin Heinrich (D) 51.0%
Heather Wilson (R) 45.3%
Jon Barrie (IAP) 3.6%
2012
New York Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 71.6%
Wendy E. Long (R) 26.0%
2010 (special)
2012
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp Democratic Heidi Heitkamp (D) 50.2%
Rick Berg (R) 49.3%
2012
Ohio Sherrod Brown Democratic Sherrod Brown (D) 50.7%
Josh Mandel (R) 44.7%
Scott A. Rupert (I) 4.6%
2006
2012
Pennsylvania Bob Casey, Jr. Democratic Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 53.7%
Tom Smith (R) 44.6%
Rayburn Douglas Smith (L) 1.7%
2006
2012
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Democratic Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 64.8%
Barry Hinckley (R) 35.0%
2006
2012
Tennessee Bob Corker Republican Bob Corker (R) 64.9%
Mark E. Clayton (D) 30.4%
Martin Pleasant (G) 1.7%
2006
2012
Texas Ted Cruz Republican Ted Cruz (R) 56.5%
Paul Sadler (D) 40.7%
John Jay Myers (L) 2.1%
2012
Utah Orrin Hatch Republican Orrin Hatch (R) 65.3%
Scott Howell (D) 30.0%
Shaun McCausland (C) 3.2%
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
Retiring[3]
Vermont Bernie Sanders Independent Bernie Sanders (I) 71%
John MacGovern (R) 24.9%
Cris Ericson (Marijuana Party) 2%
2006
2012
Virginia Tim Kaine Democratic Tim Kaine (D) 52.9%
George Allen (R) 47%
2012
Washington Maria Cantwell Democratic Maria Cantwell (D) 60.5%
Michael Baumgartner (R) 39.5%
2000
2006
2012
West Virginia Joe Manchin Democratic Joe Manchin (D) 60.6%
John Raese (R) 36.5%
Bob Henry Baber (G) 3.0%
2010
2012
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin Democratic Tammy Baldwin (D) 51.4%
Tommy Thompson (R) 45.5%
Joseph Kexel (L) 2.1%
2012
Wyoming John Barrasso Republican John Barrasso (R) 75.7%
Tim Chestnut (D) 21.7%
Joel Otto (Wyoming Country) 2.6%
2008 (special)
2012
State
(linked to
summaries below)
Incumbent Most recent election results 2018 intent Candidates
Senator Party Electoral
history

Complete list of races[edit]

Thirty-three seats are up for election in 2018:

  • Twenty-three Democrats may seek re-election.
  • Two independents who caucus with the Democrats may seek re-election.
  • One Republican is retiring.
  • Seven Republicans may seek re-election.

Arizona[edit]

One-term Republican Senator Jeff Flake was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2012. He will be 55 years old in 2018. Radio host, author and conservative commentator Laura Ingraham may move to Arizona to challenge Flake in the Republican primary.[4] Other potential Republican candidates include Congressman Ben Quayle, Matt Salmon, and David Schweikert. Potential Democratic candidates include Congresswomen Kyrsten Sinema and Gabby Giffords, along with astronaut Mark Kelly.[5]

California[edit]

Four-term Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein won a special election in 1992 and was elected to full terms in 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2012. She won re-election in 2012 with 62.5% of the vote; she claimed the record for the most popular votes in any U.S. Senate election in history, having received 7.75 million votes.[6] Feinstein is the chair of the Select Committee on Intelligence. She will be 85 years old in 2018.

Connecticut[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Chris Murphy was elected with 54.8% of the vote in 2012. He will be 45 years old in 2018. As of 2014, Murphy is the youngest member of the Senate.

Delaware[edit]

Three-term Democratic Senator Tom Carper won re-election with 66.4% of the vote in 2012. He will be 71 years old in 2018.

Florida[edit]

Three-term Democratic Senator Bill Nelson was re-elected with 55.2% of the vote in 2012. Nelson is the chair of the United States Senate Special Committee on Aging. He will be 76 years old in 2018. Potential Republican candidates include Chief Financial Officer of Florida Jeff Atwater, and Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam.[7]

Hawaii[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Mazie Hirono was elected with 62.6% of the vote in 2012. She will be 71 years old in 2018.

Indiana[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly was elected with 50% of the vote in 2012. He will be 63 years old in 2018. Potential Republican candidates include State Speaker Brian Bosma, Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, Purdue University President and former Governor of Indiana Mitch Daniels,[8] and Representatives Susan Brooks, Luke Messer, and Todd Young.[9]

Maine[edit]

One-term Independent Senator Angus King was elected in a three-way race with 52.9% of the vote in 2012. He will be 74 years old in 2018. King caucuses with the Democratic Party.

Maryland[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2012. He will be 75 years old in 2018.

Massachusetts[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren defeated Scott Brown with 53.7% of the vote in 2012. She will be 69 years old in 2018.

Michigan[edit]

Three-term Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was re-elected with 58.8% of the vote in 2012. Stabenow is the chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee. She will be 68 years old in 2018. Republican U.S Representative Justin Amash is a potential candidate.[10]

Minnesota[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar was re-elected with 65.2% of the vote in 2012. She will be 58 years old in 2018. Republican Erik Paulsen and Democrats R.T. Rybak, Lori Swanson, and Tim Walz have been mentioned as potential candidates.[11]

Mississippi[edit]

One-term Republican Senator Roger Wicker won re-election with 57.2% of the vote in 2012. He was appointed Senator in 2007 after Trent Lott vacated the seat and won a special election in 2008. He will be 67 years old in 2018.

Missouri[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill was re-elected with 54.8% of the vote in 2012. She will be 65 years old in 2018. Potential Republican challengers include Congresswoman Ann Wagner, former Missouri Speaker Catherine Hanaway, and State Auditor Tom Schweich.[12]

Montana[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2012. He will be 62 years old in 2018. Potential Republican candidates include former Governor Marc Racicot,[8] and former State Senate Minority Leader Corey Stapleton.[13]

Nebraska[edit]

One-term Republican Senator Deb Fischer was elected with 55.7% of the vote in 2010. She will be 67 years old in 2018.

Nevada[edit]

One-term Republican Senator Dean Heller was elected with 45.9% of the vote in 2012. He had been appointed to the seat in 2011. He will be 58 years old in 2018. Congressman Steven Horsford and Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto are potential opponents.[14]

New Jersey[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Bob Menendez was re-elected with 58.9% of the vote in 2012. Menendez was originally appointed to the seat in January 2006. He is the chairman of the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. He will be 64 years old in 2018.

Polling by Harper Polling/Conservative Intel in March 2013 showed Thomas Kean, Jr. taking 41% in a hypothetical 2018 Republican primary matchup, with Kim Guadagno at 33%, Joseph M. Kyrillos at 12%, and 14% undecided. If Menendez were to retire, the poll showed that Richard Codey would lead a Democratic primary with 33%, leading Rob Andrews (13%), Frank Pallone (13%) and Stephen M. Sweeney (6%) with 35% undecided. In a hypothetical general election, the poll showed that Kean would lead Andrews 33% to 17% with 50% undecided, and Codey would lead Kyrillos 34% to 25% with 41% undecided. The polling was conducted March 24–25, 2013.[15][16]

New Mexico[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich was elected with 51% of the vote in 2012. He will be 47 years old in 2018.

New York[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand was elected with 71.6% of the vote in 2012. She had previously been appointed to the seat in 2009, and won a special election in 2010. She will be 51 years old in 2018.

North Dakota[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp was elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2012. She will be 63 years old in 2018.

Ohio[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown was re-elected with 50.7% of the vote in 2012. He will be 65 years old in 2018. Potential Democratic candidates include Congresswoman Betty Sutton, former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, State Senator Nina Turner, State Representative Connie Pillich and U.S. Representative Tim Ryan.[17] Former Governor Ted Strickland has ruled out running, however.[18] Potential Republican candidates include Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine,[8] Governor John Kasich,[8] Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel and U.S. Representative Steve Stivers.[17]

Pennsylvania[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. was re-elected with 53.7% of the vote in 2012. Casey is the son of former Governor of Pennsylvania Robert P. Casey. He will be 58 years old in 2018. Casey may consider running for governor, particularly if there is no incumbent governor running for re-election. If Casey does not run for re-election, Attorney General Kathleen Kane is a potential Democratic candidate. Potential Republican candidates include Congressmen Pat Meehan, Charlie Dent, and Mike Kelly.[19]

Rhode Island[edit]

Two-term Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse was elected with 63.8% of the vote in 2012. He will be 63 years old in 2018.

Tennessee[edit]

Two-term Republican Senator Bob Corker was elected with 64.9% of the vote in 2012. Corker is the ranking member of the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. He will be 66 years old in 2018. Corker may run for governor in 2018. Potential Democratic candidates include Nashville Mayor Karl Dean.[20]

Texas[edit]

One-term Republican Senator Ted Cruz was elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2012. He will be 47 years old in 2018. Potential Democratic candidates include United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, Congressman Joaquin Castro, 2014 gubernatorial nominee and State Senator Wendy Davis, and 2014 lieutenant gubernatorial nominee and State Senator Leticia Van de Putte.[21] Potential Republican candidates include author, historian, minister and former Vice Chair of the Republican Party of Texas David Barton,[22] George P. Bush, Dan Patrick, and Congressmen Michael McCaul, Jeb Hensarling, and Louie Gohmert.[23]

Utah[edit]

Seven-term Republican Senator Orrin Hatch was re-elected with 65.3% of the vote in 2012. Hatch is the most senior Republican Senator, as well as second most-senior member, behind only President pro tempore Patrick Leahy. Hatch is the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee. He will be 84 years old in 2018. Hatch has said that he will retire at the end of his seventh term.[3] Former Republican Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. is a potential candidate,[24] other potential Republican candidates include state party chair Thomas Wright, former state senator Dan Liljenquist, Attorney General Sean Reyes, Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox, state senator Aaron Osmond, state house speaker Becky Lockhart, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, Congressman Chris Stewart, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, and Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney.[25] Potential Democratic candidates include Jim Matheson, provided he does not win election in 2016 as governor or senator.[25]

Vermont[edit]

Two-term Independent Senator Bernie Sanders was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2012. Sanders is a self-described democratic socialist.[26][27] Sanders caucuses with the Democratic Party. In both of Sanders's Senate campaigns, Sanders did not receive a serious Democratic challenger. Sanders is the chairman of the Committee on Veterans' Affairs. He will be 77 years old in 2018. Sanders may run for president in 2016 as either an independent or a Democrat.

Virginia[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Tim Kaine was elected with 52.9% of the vote in 2012. He will be 60 years old in 2018. Kane is considered a potential 2016 Vice Presidential nominee, as well as a potential Cabinet Secretary. Potential Republican candidates include former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie,[28] state senator Mark Obenshain, former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor[29] former Virginia Attorney Generals Ken Cuccinelli,[30] and Jerry Kilgore,[8] state delegate Benjamin Cline, state senator Jeff McWaters, state delegate Barbara Comstock, state senator Bryce Reeves, Congressman Scott Rigell, former Alabama Congressman Artur Davis, and Congressman Randy Forbes. If Kaine vacates the seat, potential Democratic candidates include Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam, Attorney General Mark Herring, former Lieutenant Governor Don Beyer, former House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong, former Congressman Tom Perriello, and Kaine's wife, Virginia Education Secretary Anne Holton.[31]

Washington[edit]

Three-term Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell was re-elected with 60.5% of the vote in 2012. Cantwell is the chair of the Committee on Indian Affairs. She will be 60 years old in 2018.

West Virginia[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Joe Manchin was elected with 60.6% of the vote in 2012. He originally won the seat in a 2010 special election. He will be 71 years old in 2018. Potential Democratic candidates include former Senator Carte Goodwin, delegate Doug Reynolds, delegate Doug Skaff, and state senator Mike Green.[32] Potential Republican candidates include Congressman David McKinley, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, delegate Erikka Storch, state senator Evan Jenkins, and Olympic gymnast Mary Lou Retton.[32]

Wisconsin[edit]

One-term Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin was elected with 51.4% of the vote in 2012. She is the first openly gay Senator in U.S. history.[33] She will be 56 years old in 2018. Potential Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, Congressmen Sean Duffy and Paul Ryan, and Governor Scott Walker.[8][34]

Wyoming[edit]

One-term Republican Senator John Barrasso was elected with 75.7% of the vote in 2012. Barrasso was appointed to the seat in 2007, and won a special election in 2008. Barrasso is the ranking member of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs. He will be 66 years old in 2018.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Kondik, Kyle (25 July 2013). "Senate 2014 and Beyond". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved 19 September 2013. 
  2. ^ Cook, Charlie Cook (31 March 2014). "Buckle Up for More Gridlock". National Journal. Retrieved 7 April 2014. 
  3. ^ a b Lederman, Josh (March 3, 2012). "Hatch will retire in 2018 if he wins reelection". The Hill. 
  4. ^ The Daily Caller: Laura Ingraham: ‘I’m thinking of moving to Arizona’ to ‘primary challenge Sen. Jeff Flake myself’. May 22, 2013.
  5. ^ Livingston, Abby (February 27, 2013). "Farm Team: Arizona Raises Drama, Candidates". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013. 
  6. ^ Charles Mahtesian (26 November 2012). "Feinstein's record: 7.3 million votes". Politico (Politico). Retrieved 16 December 2012. 
  7. ^ Henderson, Jeff (June 26, 2014). "Jeff Atwater and Adam Putnam Sitting Pretty in 2014". Sunshine State News. Retrieved September 12, 2014. 
  8. ^ a b c d e f "The path for a Democratic majority in the US Senate after 2018 III (with poll)". DailyKos. April 12, 2014. Retrieved September 12, 2014. 
  9. ^ Livingston, Abby (June 19, 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013. 
  10. ^ Gehrke, Joel (August 7, 2014). "Tea-Party Power Endures". National Review Online. Retrieved September 15, 2014. 
  11. ^ Cahn, Emily (18 September 2013). "Minnesota Politicians Wait for Kline, Peterson Exits to Ascend". Roll Call. Retrieved 20 September 2013. 
  12. ^ Bologna, Giacoma (2 October 2013). "Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched". Roll Call. Retrieved 2 October 2013. 
  13. ^ "MT US Senate - R Primary". Our Campaigns. March 8, 2014. Retrieved June 18, 2014. 
  14. ^ Bologna, Giacomo (23 October 2013). "Nevada Republicans Line Up to Depose Reid in 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved 23 October 2013. 
  15. ^ http://conservativeintel.com/2013/03/28/most-popular-choice/
  16. ^ http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/conservative-intel-harper-polling-new-jersey-
  17. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (9 January 2014). "Whither Ohio as the Ultimate House Battleground?". Roll Call. Retrieved 9 January 2014. 
  18. ^ Stein, Sam (March 19, 2014). "Ted Strickland Joins Top Democratic Think Tank, Has 'No Plans For The Senate'". The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 19, 2014. 
  19. ^ Cahn, Emily (30 January 2014). "In Pa., House Democrats Are Really Ready for Hillary". Roll Call. Retrieved 30 January 2014. 
  20. ^ Cahn, Emily (5 March 2014). "Senate Control Could Decide Opportunities in Tennessee". Roll Call. Retrieved 5 March 2014. 
  21. ^ Livingston, Abby (27 March 2014). "In Lone Star State, High Hopes for Rising Democrats". Roll Call. Retrieved 27 March 2014. 
  22. ^ Kopan, Tal. "David Barton won’t run against John Cornyn". Politico. Retrieved 13 September 2014. 
  23. ^ Livingston, Abby (12 March 2014). "Ambitious Texas Republicans Had Better Get Organized for Expensive Federal Races". Roll Call. Retrieved 12 March 2014. 
  24. ^ Catanese, David (29 March 2012). "Huntsman daughter floats Dad for Senate". Politico. Retrieved 24 April 2014. 
  25. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (2 April 2014). "Next Utah Races to Watch Are for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved 3 April 2014. 
  26. ^ Lisa Lerer (July 16, 2009). "Where's the outrage over AIG bonuses?". The Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2010. 
  27. ^ Michael Powell (November 6, 2006). "Exceedingly Social But Doesn't Like Parties". Retrieved November 26, 2012. 
  28. ^ Cook, Charlie (27 January 2014). "Ed Gillespie's Senate Bid Isn't As Crazy As It Seems". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 13 May 2014. 
  29. ^ Higgins, Justin (June 17, 2014). "Virginia: Cantor Backs Brat, Rules Out Bid for Governor". JHPolitics. Retrieved September 12, 2014. 
  30. ^ Leahy, Norman (2 December 2013). "What if Bill Bolling takes on Mark Warner?". The Washington Post. Retrieved 12 June 2014. 
  31. ^ Cahn, Emily (21 April 2014). "Retirements Open Door for New Virginia Candidates". Roll Call. Retrieved 22 April 2014. 
  32. ^ a b "West Virginia Undergoing Political, Generational Change". Roll Call. 1 May 2014. Retrieved 1 May 2014. 
  33. ^ Turkel, Amanda (January 3, 2013) Turkel "Tammy Baldwin Sworn in to Senate, Becomes First Openly Gay Senator, The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 1, 2013.
  34. ^ "Wisconsin Delegation Hinges on Future Senate Elections". Roll Call. 7 May 2014. Retrieved 7 May 2014.