United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004

2000 ← November 2, 2004 → 2008

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 4 0 Popular vote 340,511 331,237 Percentage 50.2% 48.9%

County Results

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New Hampshire was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 1.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. Traditionally a more Republican leaning state of the heavily Democratic New England region, it was the only state in all of the Northeast to vote Republican in 2000. The state is considerably more fiscally conservative than its neighbors in New England. However, like the rest of New England it is considerably more liberal on social issues which helps the Democrats. New Hampshire was the only state that Bush won in the 2000 presidential election and lost in the 2004 presidential election.

Primaries

• New Hampshire primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss Up
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
5. Newsweek: Toss Up
6. New York Times: Toss Up
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
8. Research 2000: Toss Up
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling was back and forth, with no clear indication who would end up winning the state. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 47%, with the undecided voters, making up just 3%, deciding the election.

Fundraising

Bush raised $598,474. Kerry raised $766,720.

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 6 times, while Kerry visited the state 4 times. Each campaign spent between $100,000 to $300,000 each week.

Analysis

New Hampshire, often considered to be a more conservative state in New England, has become a swing state in the past few elections. Although, the state has been heavily trending Democratic since 2000, the year Bush won in 2000. Bush's approval ratings were consistently below 50% in 2004. Also, polling in the state consistently showed Kerry leading, and with between 47% to 50% of the vote.

On election day, Kerry won with just over 50% of the vote, with a small margin of victory, as expected from the polls. Major factors include Bush's lower approval ratings and just 1% who voted for third party candidates, unlike 2000 when over 4% of the people voted for an independent. Kerry won 6 of the 10 counties. Most of the counties were won and lost by small margins. Kerry's key to victory was winning Cheshire County with over 59%. Bush's best performance was in Belknap County, which he won with over 55% and carrying every single town. Bush won New Hampshire's 1st congressional district, and Kerry won New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district.

Results

United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	340,511	50.2%	4
	Republican	George Bush (inc.)	331,237	48.9%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	4,479	0.7%	0
	Write Ins		978	0.1%	0
	Independent	Michael Badnarik	372	0.1%	0
	Independent	Michael Peroutka	161	0.0%	0
Totals			-	100.00%	4
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population)					69.1%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry %	Kerry #	Bush %	Bush #	Others %	Others #
Cheshire	59.1%	24,438	39.8%	16,463	1.1%	446
Grafton	55.7%	26,180	43.2%	20,277	1.1%	514
Strafford	55.6%	32,942	43.6%	25,825	0.9%	514
Sullivan	52.4%	11,434	46.5%	10,142	1.0%	228
Merrimack	52.2%	39,975	47.0%	36,060	0.8%	612
Coos	50.7%	8,585	48.1%	8,143	1.2%	197
Hillsborough	48.2%	94,121	51.0%	99,724	0.8%	1,582
Rockingham	47.5%	75,437	51.7%	82,069	0.8%	1,310
Carroll	47.2%	13,319	51.8%	14,614	1.0%	289
Belknap	43.6%	14,080	55.5%	17,920	0.9%	298

By congressional district

Bush and Kerry each won one congressional district.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	51%	48%	Jeb Bradley
2nd	47%	52%	Charles Bass

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of NH cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NH is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 4 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

1. Jeanne Shaheen
2. Peter Burling
3. Judy Reardon
4. James Ryan