United States presidential election in New York, 2004

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
United States presidential election in New York, 2004
New York
2000 ←
November 2, 2004
→ 2008

  John F. Kerry.jpg George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 31 0
Popular vote 4,314,280 2,962,567
Percentage 58.37% 40.08%

New york presidential results 2004.svg

County Results
  Kerry—80-90%
  Kerry—70-80%
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 33 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry with an 18.3% margin of victory. Kerry took 58.37% of the vote to Bush's 40.08%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A Republican presidential nominee last carried the state of New York in the 1984 election.

Primaries[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling[edit]

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.[2]

Fundraising[edit]

Bush raised $11,994,227.[3] Kerry raised $27,733,309.[4]

Advertising and visits[edit]

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Geographic Analysis[edit]

The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99% to 24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14% - 48.86% victory.

The New York suburbs consist of Long Island, Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a close 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry.

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Despite this characteristic, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in New York, 2004[7]
Party Candidate Popular votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 4,180,755 56.57%
Working Families John Kerry 133,525 1.81%
Total John Kerry 4,314,280 58.37% 31
Republican George W. Bush 2,806,993 37.98%
Conservative George W. Bush 144,797 1.96%
Total George W. Bush 2,962,567 40.08% 0
Independence Ralph Nader 84,247 1.14%
Peace and Justice Ralph Nader 15,626 0.21%
Total Ralph Nader 99,873 1.35% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,607 0.16% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 2,405 0.03% 0
Constitution (Write-In) Michael Peroutka 363 >0.01% 0
Green (Write-In) David Cobb 138 >0.01% 0
Independent (Write-In) John J. Kennedy 8 >0.01% 0
Independent (Write-In) Michael Halpin 4 >0.01% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 4 >0.01% 0
Totals 7,391,036 100% 31
Voter turnout: 50.4%

Results breakdown[edit]

By county[edit]

County Kerry Votes Bush Votes Others Votes
Bronx 82.8% 283,994 16.5% 56,701 0.7% 2,284
Manhattan 82.1% 526,765 16.7% 107,405 1.2% 7,781
Brooklyn 74.9% 514,973 24.3% 167,149 0.8% 5,762
Queens 71.7% 433,835 27.4% 165,954 0.9% 5,603
Tompkins 64.2% 27,229 33.0% 13,994 2.8% 1,179
Albany 60.7% 89,323 37.3% 54,872 2.0% 3,004
Westchester 58.1% 229,849 40.3% 159,628 1.6% 6,293
Erie 56.4% 251,090 41.4% 184,423 2.2% 9,625
Saint Lawrence 54.7% 22,857 43.2% 18,029 2.1% 869
Ulster 54.3% 47,602 43.1% 37,821 2.6% 2,289
Onondaga 54.2% 116,381 43.8% 94,006 2.0% 4,202
Nassau 52.2% 323,070 46.6% 288,355 1.1% 6,918
Clinton 52.2% 17, 624 45.4% 15,330 2.3% 782
Franklin 52.1% 9,543 45.8% 8,383 2.1% 390
Schenectady 51.8% 35,971 46.2% 32,066 2.1% 1,432
Columbia 51.2% 15,929 46.5% 14,457 2.3% 717
Monroe 50.6% 173,497 47.7% 163,545 1.7% 5,939
Broome 50.4% 46,281 47.4% 43,568 2.2% 2,041
Rensselaer 49.7% 36,075 47.9% 34,734 2.4% 1,705
Suffolk 49.5% 315,909 48.5% 309,949 2.0% 12,854
Niagara 49.3% 47,602 48.8% 47,111 1.9% 1,867
Rockland 48.9% 64,191 49.6% 65,130 1.5% 1,910
Cayuga 48.6% 17,534 49.2% 17,743 2.1% 775
Sullivan 48.6% 15,034 49.5% 15,319 2.0% 613
Otsego 47.7% 12,723 50.1% 13,342 2.2% 587
Dutchess 47.0% 58,232 51.2% 63,372 1.8% 2,277
Cortland 46.9% 10,670 51.0% 11,613 2.1% 477
Oswego 46.8% 24,133 51.0% 26,325 2.2% 1,149
Essex 45.9% 8,768 51.7% 9,869 2.3% 445
Saratoga 45.6% 48,730 52.5% 56,158 1.9% 1,985
Seneca 45.5% 6,979 52.1% 7,981 2.4% 365
Chautauqua 44.7% 27,257 53.2% 32,434 2.1% 1,251
Montgomery 44.5% 9,449 53.4% 11,338 2.0% 434
Orange 43.8% 63,394 54.7% 79,089 1.5% 2,190
Chemung 43.7% 17,080 54.6% 21,321 1.7% 674
Chenango 43.5% 9,277 54.3% 11,582 2.3% 482
Jefferson 43.5% 16,860 54.7% 21,231 1.8% 709
Madison 43.3% 13,121 54.6% 16,537 2.1% 629
Warren 43.2%' 13,405 54.6% 16,969 2.2% 685
Oneida 42.8% 40,792 54.9% 52,392 2.3% 2,185
Richmond (Staten Island) 42.7% 68,448 56.4% 90,325 0.9% 1,370
Washington 42.3% 10,624 55.1% 13,827 2.6% 652
Ontario 42.2% 21,166 55.9% 27,999 1.9% 937
Putnam 42.0% 19,575 56.6% 26,356 1.4% 632
Fulton 41.4% 9,202 56.6% 12,570 2.0% 443
Delaware 41.2% 8,724 56.5% 11,958 2.3% 484
Herkimer 41.2% 11,675 56.6% 16,024 2.2% 611
Tioga 40.6% 9,694 57.6% 13,762 1.9% 446
Schuyler 40.1% 3,445 57.7% 4,960 2.2% 185
Greene 39.9% 8,933 58.0% 12,996 2.1% 469
Lewis 39.9% 4,546 58.1% 6,624 2.0% 227
Cattaraugus 39.4% 13,514 58.5% 20,051 2.0% 697
Yates 39.3% 4,205 58.9% 6,309 1.8% 197
Schoharie 38.7% 5,630 59.0% 8,591 2.3% 336
Livingston 38.4% 11,504 59.2% 17,729 2.4% 715
Wayne 38.1% 15,709 60.0% 24,709 1.9% 782
Genesee 37.5% 10,331 60.6% 16,725 1.9% 524
Orleans 36.0% 5,959 62.3% 10,317 1.8% 297
Steuben 34.3% 14,523 63.8% 26,980 1.8% 781
Allegany 34.1% 6,566 63.9% 12,310 2.0% 394
Wyoming 33.8% 6,134 64.7% 11,745 1.6% 285
Hamilton 31.0% 1,145 67.0% 2,475 2.0% 72

By congressional district[edit]

Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 49% 49% Tim Bishop
2nd 45% 53% Steve Israel
3rd 52% 47% Peter T. King
4th 44% 55% Carolyn McCarthy
5th 36% 63% Gary Ackerman
6th 15% 84% Gregory W. Meeks
7th 25% 74% Joseph Crowley
8th 27% 72% Jerrold Nadler
9th 44% 56% Anthony D. Weiner
10th 13% 86% Edolphus Towns
11th 13% 86% Major Owens
12th 19% 80% Nydia Velasquez
13th 55% 45% Vito Fossella
14th 25% 75% Carolyn B. Maloney
15th 9% 90% Charlie Rangel
16th 10% 89% Jose Serrano
17th 33% 67% Eliot L. Engel
18th 42% 58% Nita Lowey
19th 54% 45% Sue W. Kelly
20th 54% 46% John E. Sweeney
21st 43% 55% Michael R. McNulty
22nd 45% 54% Maurice Hinchey
23rd 51% 47% John M. McHugh
24th 53% 47% Sherwood Boehlert
25th 48% 50% James T. Walsh
26th 55% 43% Thomas M. Reynolds
27th 45% 53% Jack Quinn
Brian Higgins
28th 36% 63% Louise Slaughter
29th 56% 42% Amo Houghton
Randy Kuhl

Electors[edit]

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Joseph Ashton
  2. Bill De Blasio
  3. Molly Clifford
  4. Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
  5. Inez Dickens
  6. Danny Donahue
  7. Herman D. Farrell
  8. C. Virginia Fields
  9. Emily Giske
  10. Bea Gonzalez
  11. Alan Hevesi
  12. Frank Hoare
  13. Virginia Kee
  14. Peggy Kerry
  15. Denise King
  16. Len Lenihan
  17. Bertha Lewis
  18. Alan Lubin
  19. Thomas Manton
  20. Dennis Mehiel
  21. June O'Neill
  22. David Paterson
  23. Jose Rivera
  24. Rich Schaffer
  25. Chung Seto
  26. Sheldon Silver
  27. Eliot Spitzer
  28. Antoine Thompson
  29. Paul Tokasz
  30. Bill Wood
  31. Robert Zimmerman

References[edit]

See also[edit]