United States presidential election in Oregon, 2008

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United States presidential election in Oregon, 2008
Oregon
2004 ←
November 4, 2008 → 2012

  Obama portrait crop.jpg John McCain official portrait with alternative background.jpg
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,037,291 738,475
Percentage 56.75% 40.40%

Oregon presidential election results 2008.svg

County Results
  Obama—70-80%
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—<50%
  McCain—<50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%
  McCain—70-80%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 7 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Oregon was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 16.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Situated on the West Coast, which has become a reliably Democratic stronghold, Oregon is a relatively blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Oregon was Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide reelection. Although George W. Bush came within half a percent of Al Gore in 2000, the Republicans have never seriously contested here. On Election Day 2008, Obama kept Oregon in the Democratic column, receiving near 57% of the vote.

Primaries[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat[2]
  3. Takeaway: Solid Obama[3]
  4. Election Projection: Solid Obama[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[5]
  6. Washington Post: Solid Obama[6]
  7. Politico: Solid Obama[7]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[9]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[10]
  11. New York Times: Solid Democrat[11]
  12. CNN: Safe Democrat[12]
  13. NPR: Solid Obama[13]
  14. MSNBC: Solid Obama[14]
  15. Fox News: Democrat[15]
  16. Associated Press: Democrat[16]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[17]

Polling[edit]

Obama won every single pre-election poll. Since September 22, Obama won each by a double digit margin of victory and at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 polls showed Obama leading 55% to 41%.[18]

Fundraising[edit]

McCain raised a total of $1,258,426 in the state. Obama raised $6,660,622.[19]

Advertising and visits[edit]

Obama and his interest groups spent 1,194,908. McCain and his interest groups spent just $159,222.[20] Neither campaign visited the state.[21]

Analysis[edit]

Voters in Oregon have a strong penchant for advancing the protection of civil liberties and individual freedoms, liberal values that have given Democrats a big edge in the state in recent years. The state once leaned Republican, like most of the Pacific Northwest. It only went Democratic once from 1948 to 1984--during Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. However, the state has gone Democratic in every election since 1988, and along with California and Washington it is reckoned as forming a solid bloc of blue states along the Pacific Coast.

On Election Day, Obama carried the state by 16.35 points. Most rural counties favored McCain, though Obama performed far better in this region than John Kerry did in 2004. However, Obama's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley, home to two-thirds of the state's population, would have allowed him to win the state decisively in any event. The state remains geographically and politically divided by the Cascade Mountains, with eastern Oregon being more rural and less populated and therefore more strongly Republican, while western Oregon is more urbanized and populated and therefore more strongly Democratic. These two areas compose the core of each party's votes: rural Oregon is strongly Republican and very similar culturally to Idaho, while the Willamette Valley--especially the cities of Portland and Eugene-- heavily favors the Democrats. While Republicans typically win more counties due to running up large margins in the east, Democrats typically win the state because the Willamette Valley has more people. In 2008, Obama's overwhelming margins in Portland and Eugene, combined with strong support from Portland's suburbs (which function as swing counties), enabled him to win a landslide in a structurally liberal state.

During the same election, Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Jeff Merkley defeated incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Gordon Smith by a narrow 3.35-percent margin of victory. Merkley received 48.90% of the vote while Smith took in 45.55 with the remaining 5.24% going to Dave Brownlow of the Constitution Party. At the state level, Democrats picked up five seats in the Oregon House of Representatives while Republicans picked up one seat in the Oregon Senate.

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,037,291 56.75% 7
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 738,475 40.40% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 18,614 1.02% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 13,613 0.74% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 7,693 0.42% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 7,635 0.42% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 4,543 0.25% 0
Totals 1,827,864 100.00% 7
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 62.9%

Results breakdown[edit]

By county[edit]

County Obama  % McCain  % Nader  % Barr  % Baldwin  % McKinney  % Others  %
Baker 2,805 31.96 5,650 64.37 106 1.21 51 0.58 55 0.63 23 0.26 87 0.99
Benton 29,901 64.33 15,264 32.84 427 0.92 214 0.46 169 0.36 169 0.36 334 0.72
Clackamas 103,476 53.93 83,595 43.57 1,750 0.91 717 0.37 692 0.36 284 0.15 1,364 0.71
Clatsop 10,701 57.69 7,192 38.78 249 1.34 101 0.54 70 0.38 68 0.37 167 0.90
Columbia 13,390 54.06 10,413 42.04 307 1.24 123 0.50 202 0.82 74 0.30 259 1.05
Coos 14,401 46.53 15,354 49.61 422 1.36 163 0.53 204 0.66 103 0.33 304 0.98
Crook 3,632 35.09 6,371 61.54 157 1.52 55 0.53 37 0.36 24 0.23 76 0.73
Curry 5,230 42.41 6,646 53.89 174 1.41 57 0.46 83 0.67 26 0.21 116 0.94
Deschutes 38,819 48.66 39,064 48.96 702 0.88 305 0.38 259 0.32 129 0.16 504 0.63
Douglas 20,298 38.34 30,919 58.41 561 1.06 217 0.41 320 0.60 128 0.24 494 0.93
Gilliam 430 38.74 648 58.38 16 1.44 2 0.18 6 0.54 2 0.18 6 0.54
Grant 1,006 25.74 2,785 71.25 30 0.77 15 0.38 39 1.00 2 0.05 32 0.82
Harney 950 25.79 2,595 70.46 51 1.38 29 0.79 21 0.57 10 0.27 27 0.73
Hood River 6,302 64.11 3,265 33.21 112 1.14 31 0.32 44 0.45 21 0.21 55 0.56
Jackson 49,090 48.58 49,043 48.53 844 0.84 425 0.42 601 0.59 224 0.22 820 0.81
Jefferson 3,682 44.27 4,402 52.92 100 1.20 22 0.26 37 0.44 21 0.25 54 0.65
Josephine 17,412 41.41 22,973 54.63 492 1.17 234 0.56 379 0.90 135 0.32 424 1.01
Klamath 9,370 31.87 19,113 65.01 300 1.02 174 0.59 178 0.61 68 0.23 196 0.67
Lake 957 25.95 2,638 71.53 38 1.03 11 0.30 19 0.52 11 0.30 14 0.38
Lane 114,037 62.35 63,835 34.90 1,836 1.00 754 0.41 590 0.32 534 0.29 1,324 0.72
Lincoln 14,258 59.68 8,791 36.80 334 1.40 127 0.53 83 0.35 73 0.31 223 0.93
Linn 22,163 42.64 28,071 54.00 625 1.20 237 0.46 287 0.55 134 0.26 465 0.89
Malheur 2,949 28.27 7,157 68.60 85 0.81 57 0.55 81 0.78 28 0.27 76 0.73
Marion 61,816 49.63 59,059 47.41 1,257 1.01 528 0.42 551 0.44 328 0.26 1,024 0.82
Morrow 1,410% 34.75 2,509 61.83 43 1.06 23 0.57 33 0.81 9 0.22 31 0.76
Multnomah 279,696 76.69 75,171 20.61 4,166 1.14 1,195 0.33 904 0.25 1,207 0.33 2,371 0.65
Polk 17,536 48.43 17,714 48.92 320 0.88 116 0.32 184 0.51 79 0.22 258 0.71
Sherman 385 36.77 634 60.55 8 0.76 5 0.48 6 0.57 1 0.10 8 0.76
Tillamook 7,072 53.18 5,757 43.30 197 1.48 58 0.44 59 0.44 42 0.32 112 0.84
Umatilla 9,484 37.16 15,254 59.77 245 0.96 113 0.44 166 0.65 56 0.22 205 0.80
Union 4,613 36.63 7,581 60.20 119 0.94 63 0.50 85 0.67 23 0.18 110 0.87
Wallowa 1,492 33.42 2,836 63.52 35 0.78 24 0.54 30 0.67 6 0.13 42 0.94
Wasco 5,906 51.90 5,103 44.84 140 1.23 46 0.40 61 0.54 31 0.27 93 0.82
Washington 141,544 59.82 89,185 37.69 1,892 0.80 1,148 0.49 895 0.38 379 0.16 1,589 0.67
Wheeler 281 34.61 498 61.33 11 1.35 9 1.11 5 0.62 1 0.12 7 0.86
Yamhill 20,797 47.78 21,390 49.14 463 1.06 186 0.43 258 0.59 90 0.21 342 0.79

By congressional district[edit]

Barack Obama carried four of the state’s five congressional districts in Oregon, all districts held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 36.27% 61.03% David Wu
2nd 53.86% 43.21% Greg Walden
3rd 25.78% 71.39% Earl Blumenauer
4th 43.08% 53.79% Peter DeFazio
5th 43.33% 53.95% Darlene Hooley (110th Congress)
Kurt Schrader (111th Congress)

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[22] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[23]

  1. Michael Bohan
  2. Shirley Cairns
  3. Joe Smith
  4. John McColgan
  5. Meredith Wood Smith
  6. Frank James Dixon
  7. Bernard Gorter

References[edit]

  1. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html
  2. ^ http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential#belowMap
  3. ^ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Retrieved 2009-11-14. 
  4. ^ http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/president08.shtml
  5. ^ http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html
  6. ^ Based on Takeaway
  7. ^ http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
  8. ^ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
  9. ^ Based on Takeaway
  10. ^ http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/
  11. ^ The New York Times http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse |url= missing title (help). Retrieved May 26, 2010. 
  12. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Retrieved May 26, 2010. 
  13. ^ Based on Takeaway
  14. ^ Based on Takeaway
  15. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010. 
  16. ^ http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/
  17. ^ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
  18. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=41
  19. ^ http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=OR&cand_id=P00000001
  20. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010. 
  21. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010. 
  22. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-11-01. 
  23. ^ http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/index.html#or