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2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee

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2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee

← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
Turnout66.34% Increase[1] 0.02 pp
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,479,178 1,087,437
Percentage 56.85% 41.79%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Republican John McCain defeated Democrat Barack Obama in the state by 15 percentage points. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations had correctly predicted that McCain would easily carry the state, and virtually all polling indicated the same. Most news organizations called Tennessee for McCain immediately after the polls closed. McCain slightly improved upon George W. Bush's performance in 2004, despite the nation as a whole trending significantly Democratic in 2008. This was the first time since 1960 that Tennessee did not back the overall winning candidate in a presidential election. Furthermore, this was the first time it voted differently from swing state Ohio since 1944, and the first time it voted Republican while that state voted Democratic.

McCain became the first Republican to ever carry historically-Democratic Stewart County. As of 2020, this remains the last time that Houston County and Jackson County have voted for a Democratic presidential nominee or that the party has received more than 40% of the vote. It was one of five states to swing Republican from 2004, along with West Virginia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
2008 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary

← 2004 February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05) 2012 →

58 Democratic National Convention delegates
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Barack Obama
Home state New York Illinois
Delegate count 40 28
Popular vote 336,245 254,874
Percentage 53.82% 40.48%

Results by county
Clinton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Obama:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

The 2008 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary took place on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. Hillary Clinton won with 53.8% of the vote and was awarded 40 delegates. Barack Obama placed second, getting 40.5% of the vote and was awarded 28 delegates.

Key: Withdrew
prior to contest
2008 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary[2]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Hillary Clinton 336,245 53.82% 40
Barack Obama 254,874 40.48% 28
John Edwards 27,820 4.45% 0
Joe Biden 1,531 0.25% 0
Bill Richardson 1,178 0.19% 0
Dennis Kucinich 971 0.16% 0
Christopher Dodd 526 0.08% 0
Mike Gravel 461 0.07% 0
Uncommitted 3,158 0.51% 0
Totals 624,764 100.00% 68

Republican primary

[edit]
2008 Tennessee Republican presidential primary

← 2004 February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05) 2012 →

52 Republican National Convention delegates
 
Candidate Mike Huckabee John McCain
Home state Arkansas Arizona
Delegate count 25 19
Popular vote 190,904 176,091
Percentage 34.37% 31.84%

 
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Delegate count 8 0
Popular vote 130,632 31,026
Percentage 23.62% 5.61%

     Huckabee
     McCain
     Romney

The 2008 Tennessee Republican presidential primary took place on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. Mike Huckabee narrowly defeated John McCain to win the largest share of Tennessee's delegates to the 2008 Republican National Convention. Both McCain and the third-place candidate Mitt Romney received delegates along with Huckabee.

2008 Tennessee Republican presidential primary[3][4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Mike Huckabee 190,904 34.37% 25
John McCain 176,091 31.84% 19
Mitt Romney 130,632 23.62% 8
Ron Paul 31,026 5.61% 0
Fred Thompson* 16,263 2.94% 0
Rudy Giuliani* 5,159 0.93% 0
Alan Keyes 978 0.18% 0
Duncan Hunter* 738 0.13% 0
Tom Tancredo* 194 0.03% 0
Uncommitted 1,830 0.33% 0
Total 553,005 100% 52

* Candidate dropped out of the race before the primary

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[5] Likely R
Cook Political Report[6] Solid R
The Takeaway[7] Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[8] Solid R
Washington Post[9] Solid R
Politico[10] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[11] Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[9] Solid R
CQ Politics[12] Solid R
The New York Times[13] Solid R
CNN[14] Safe R
NPR[9] Solid R
MSNBC[9] Solid R
Fox News[15] Likely R
Associated Press[16] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[17] Safe R

Polling

[edit]

McCain won every single pre-election poll, and each by a double-digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 55% to 40%.[18]

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $2,941,065 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,481,341.[19]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama spent $518,659. The Republican ticket spent just $3,526.[20] Obama visited the state once, going to Nashville. McCain visited the state twice, visiting Nashville and Blountville.[21]

Results

[edit]
2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee[22][23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John McCain
Sarah Palin
1,479,178 56.85%
Democratic Barack Obama
Joe Biden
1,087,437 41.79%
Independent Ralph Nader
Matt Gonzalez
11,560 0.44%
Libertarian Bob Barr
Wayne Allyn Root
8,547 0.33%
Constitution Chuck Baldwin
Darrell Castle
8,191 0.31%
Green Cynthia McKinney
Rosa Clemente
2,499 0.10%
Independent (write-in) 2,333 0.09%
Socialist Brian Moore
Stewart Alexander
1,326 0.05%
Boston Tea Party (political party) Charles Jay
Thomas Knapp
1,011 0.04%
Total votes 2,601,982 100.00%
Turnout 2,618,238 66.34%
Republican hold

By county

[edit]
County John McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Anderson 19,675 62.32% 11,396 36.10% 499 1.58% 8,279 26.22% 31,570
Bedford 10,217 65.89% 5,027 32.42% 263 1.69% 5,190 33.47% 15,507
Benton 3,696 57.05% 2,645 40.82% 138 2.13% 1,051 16.23% 6,479
Bledsoe 3,166 66.18% 1,517 31.71% 101 2.11% 1,649 34.47% 4,784
Blount 35,571 68.88% 15,253 29.53% 821 1.59% 20,318 39.35% 51,645
Bradley 28,333 74.19% 9,357 24.50% 501 1.31% 18,976 49.69% 38,191
Campbell 8,535 67.59% 3,867 30.62% 226 1.79% 4,668 36.97% 12,628
Cannon 3,322 60.88% 2,011 36.85% 124 2.27% 1,311 24.03% 5,457
Carroll 7,455 64.01% 3,980 34.17% 211 1.82% 3,475 29.84% 11,646
Carter 15,852 72.82% 5,587 25.66% 330 1.52% 10,265 47.16% 21,769
Cheatham 10,702 65.14% 5,498 33.47% 228 1.39% 5,204 31.67% 16,428
Chester 4,587 71.02% 1,797 27.82% 75 1.16% 2,790 43.20% 6,459
Claiborne 7,175 68.86% 3,078 29.54% 167 1.60% 4,097 39.32% 10,420
Clay 1,676 55.98% 1,248 41.68% 70 2.34% 428 14.30% 2,994
Cocke 8,945 71.67% 3,340 26.76% 196 1.57% 5,605 44.91% 12,481
Coffee 13,250 63.73% 7,132 34.30% 408 1.97% 6,118 29.43% 20,790
Crockett 3,994 66.16% 1,967 32.58% 76 1.26% 2,027 33.58% 6,037
Cumberland 17,436 67.81% 7,889 30.68% 387 1.51% 9,547 37.13% 25,712
Davidson 102,915 38.80% 158,423 59.73% 3,885 1.47% -55,508 -20.93% 265,223
Decatur 3,101 65.11% 1,566 32.88% 96 2.01% 1,535 32.23% 4,763
DeKalb 4,085 57.82% 2,832 40.08% 148 2.10% 1,253 17.74% 7,065
Dickson 11,677 59.82% 7,506 38.45% 336 1.73% 4,171 21.37% 19,519
Dyer 9,859 68.23% 4,411 30.53% 180 1.24% 5,448 37.70% 14,450
Fayette 12,173 63.22% 6,892 35.80% 189 0.98% 5,281 27.42% 19,254
Fentress 4,789 71.06% 1,831 27.17% 119 1.77% 2,958 43.89% 6,739
Franklin 10,539 60.46% 6,613 37.94% 280 1.60% 3,926 22.52% 17,432
Gibson 13,516 63.60% 7,406 34.85% 331 1.55% 6,110 28.75% 21,253
Giles 6,902 59.05% 4,614 39.47% 173 1.48% 2,288 19.58% 11,689
Grainger 5,297 70.60% 2,066 27.54% 140 1.86% 3,231 43.06% 7,503
Greene 17,151 69.52% 7,110 28.82% 409 1.66% 10,041 40.70% 24,670
Grundy 2,563 55.33% 1,971 42.55% 98 2.12% 592 12.78% 4,632
Hamblen 15,508 68.41% 6,807 30.03% 354 1.56% 8,701 38.38% 22,669
Hamilton 81,702 55.19% 64,246 43.40% 2,086 1.41% 17,456 11.79% 148,034
Hancock 1,588 70.86% 604 26.95% 49 2.19% 984 43.91% 2,241
Hardeman 5,225 46.50% 5,919 52.67% 93 0.83% -694 -6.17% 11,237
Hardin 7,077 70.52% 2,794 27.84% 164 1.64% 4,283 42.68% 10,035
Hawkins 14,756 70.13% 5,930 28.18% 354 1.69% 8,826 41.95% 21,040
Haywood 3,165 38.97% 4,893 60.25% 63 0.78% -1,728 -21.28% 8,121
Henderson 7,669 70.79% 3,021 27.88% 144 1.33% 4,648 42.91% 10,834
Henry 8,182 60.41% 5,153 38.04% 210 1.55% 3,029 22.37% 13,545
Hickman 4,784 56.30% 3,563 41.93% 151 1.77% 1,221 14.37% 8,498
Houston 1,608 47.94% 1,678 50.03% 68 2.03% -70 -2.09% 3,354
Humphreys 3,818 50.37% 3,600 47.49% 162 2.14% 218 2.88% 7,580
Jackson 2,185 48.54% 2,224 49.41% 92 2.05% -39 -0.87% 4,501
Jefferson 13,092 70.65% 5,178 27.94% 262 1.41% 7,914 42.71% 18,532
Johnson 4,621 70.11% 1,837 27.87% 133 2.02% 2,784 42.24% 6,591
Knox 113,015 60.73% 70,215 37.73% 2,856 1.53% 42,800 23.00% 186,086
Lake 1,175 52.50% 1,024 45.76% 39 1.74% 151 6.74% 2,238
Lauderdale 4,933 52.83% 4,322 46.28% 83 0.89% 611 6.55% 9,338
Lawrence 10,566 65.96% 5,161 32.22% 293 1.82% 5,405 33.74% 16,020
Lewis 2,951 61.05% 1,804 37.32% 79 1.63% 1,147 23.73% 4,834
Lincoln 9,231 70.30% 3,695 28.14% 204 1.56% 5,536 42.16% 13,130
Loudon 15,815 71.29% 6,058 27.31% 311 1.40% 9,757 43.98% 22,184
Macon 5,145 69.90% 2,060 27.99% 155 2.11% 3,085 41.91% 7,360
Madison 23,290 53.12% 20,209 46.09% 347 0.79% 3,081 7.03% 43,846
Marion 6,746 58.98% 4,506 39.40% 185 1.62% 2,240 19.58% 11,437
Marshall 6,755 59.84% 4,320 38.27% 214 1.89% 2,435 21.57% 11,289
Maury 20,288 60.08% 13,058 38.67% 421 1.25% 7,230 21.41% 33,767
McMinn 12,989 69.13% 5,541 29.49% 259 1.38% 7,448 39.64% 18,789
McNairy 7,135 68.46% 3,131 30.04% 156 1.50% 4,004 38.42% 10,422
Meigs 2,797 66.01% 1,372 32.38% 68 1.61% 1,425 33.63% 4,237
Monroe 11,484 68.45% 5,053 30.12% 240 1.43% 6,431 38.33% 16,777
Montgomery 30,175 53.28% 25,716 45.40% 748 1.32% 4,459 7.88% 56,639
Moore 2,010 68.09% 881 29.84% 61 2.07% 1,129 38.25% 2,952
Morgan 4,717 69.14% 1,969 28.86% 136 2.00% 2,748 40.28% 6,822
Obion 8,873 66.26% 4,308 32.17% 211 1.57% 4,565 34.09% 13,392
Overton 4,497 55.57% 3,419 42.25% 176 2.18% 1,078 13.32% 8,092
Perry 1,596 53.20% 1,329 44.30% 75 2.50% 267 8.90% 3,000
Pickett 1,786 66.87% 854 31.97% 31 1.16% 932 34.90% 2,671
Polk 4,267 65.64% 2,124 32.67% 110 1.69% 2,143 32.97% 6,501
Putnam 17,101 62.60% 9,739 35.65% 476 1.75% 7,362 26.95% 27,316
Rhea 8,042 72.41% 2,907 26.18% 157 1.41% 5,135 46.23% 11,106
Roane 15,658 67.27% 7,224 31.04% 394 1.69% 8,434 36.23% 23,276
Robertson 17,903 64.83% 9,318 33.74% 393 1.43% 8,585 31.09% 27,614
Rutherford 59,892 58.78% 40,460 39.71% 1,547 1.51% 19,432 19.07% 101,899
Scott 4,931 72.70% 1,720 25.36% 132 1.94% 3,211 47.34% 6,783
Sequatchie 3,610 66.40% 1,717 31.58% 110 2.02% 1,893 34.82% 5,437
Sevier 24,922 73.43% 8,604 25.35% 415 1.22% 16,318 48.08% 33,941
Shelby 145,458 35.96% 256,297 63.35% 2,800 0.69% -110,839 -27.39% 404,555
Smith 4,563 58.95% 2,992 38.65% 186 2.40% 1,571 20.30% 7,741
Stewart 2,956 53.68% 2,470 44.85% 81 1.47% 486 8.83% 5,507
Sullivan 44,808 70.02% 18,354 28.68% 835 1.30% 26,454 41.34% 63,997
Sumner 44,949 66.73% 21,487 31.90% 926 1.37% 23,462 34.83% 67,362
Tipton 17,165 67.80% 7,931 31.33% 220 0.87% 9,234 36.47% 25,316
Trousdale 1,688 52.11% 1,475 45.54% 76 2.35% 213 6.57% 3,239
Unicoi 5,011 69.38% 2,107 29.17% 105 1.45% 2,904 40.21% 7,223
Union 4,467 69.81% 1,829 28.58% 103 1.61% 2,638 41.23% 6,399
Van Buren 1,294 58.66% 849 38.49% 63 2.85% 445 20.17% 2,206
Warren 8,562 59.46% 5,515 38.30% 323 2.24% 3,047 21.16% 14,400
Washington 32,341 66.03% 15,941 32.54% 700 1.43% 16,400 33.49% 48,982
Wayne 4,076 73.75% 1,355 24.52% 96 1.73% 2,721 49.23% 5,527
Weakley 8,855 64.68% 4,596 33.57% 239 1.75% 4,259 31.11% 13,690
White 6,103 63.26% 3,372 34.95% 172 1.79% 2,731 28.31% 9,647
Williamson 64,858 69.12% 27,886 29.72% 1,092 1.16% 36,972 39.40% 93,836
Wilson 34,595 67.62% 15,886 31.05% 678 1.33% 18,709 36.57% 51,159
Totals 1,479,178 56.85% 1,087,437 41.79% 35,367 1.36% 391,741 15.06% 2,601,982
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

John McCain swept the state and carried 7 of the state's 9 congressional districts, including three districts held by Democrats. Barack Obama carried the state's 2 congressional districts anchored by the two largest cities of Memphis and Nashville.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 69.77% 28.77% David Davis (110th Congress)
Phil Roe (111th Congress)
2nd 64.21% 34.28% John J. Duncan Jr.
3rd 61.87% 36.86% Zach Wamp
4th 64.06% 34.25% Lincoln Davis
5th 42.94% 55.85% Jim Cooper
6th 61.87% 36.59% Bart Gordon
7th 64.76% 34.29% Marsha Blackburn
8th 56.01% 42.73% John S. Tanner
9th 22.51% 76.92% Steve Cohen

Electors

[edit]

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:

  1. Sara Sellers
  2. Jim Haslam
  3. Wayne Cropp
  4. Lisa Wheeler
  5. Beth Campbell
  6. Albert McCall
  7. Shirley Curry
  8. Marilucile Counce
  9. Colin Richmond
  10. Winfield Dunn
  11. Chrystal Horn

Analysis

[edit]

Despite narrowly voting for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 when former Tennessee Senator Al Gore was on the ticket as Vice President, the state, along with neighboring Arkansas has steadily been trending Republican since then. George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2000 over Gore and easily won in 2004 over John Kerry.

A handful of Tennessean counties—including those that hadn't voted Republican since landslide victors Reagan or Nixon were on the ballot, swung dramatically Republican. For example, Grundy County, in southeastern Tennessee, broke 56%-42% for John Kerry in 2004, but wound up being swept by McCain 55%-42% this year. The state was one of five states that swung even more Republican in 2008 with John McCain soundly defeating Barack Obama in Tennessee. 2008 marked the first time since 1960 whereby the state was carried by the losing presidential candidate. A possible factor to Tennessee ironically swinging rightward—despite the national Democratic trend—could be the state favoring Hillary Clinton, former First Lady of neighboring Arkansas, over Barack Obama in the Democratic primary, as was the case in Arkansas itself.

McCain won both East Tennessee and Middle Tennessee by landslide margins. Historically, East Tennessee, which is a part of Appalachia, is one of the few ancestrally Republican areas of the South. Most of its residents strongly opposed secession during the Civil War. They identified with the GOP after the return of peace and have remained in the Republican fold through good times and bad ever since. Some of the region's counties are among the few in the country to have never supported a Democrat for president.

However, Middle Tennessee has Democratic roots based on liberal economic policies, most famously Franklin D. Roosevelt's Tennessee Valley Authority. Middle Tennessee voted strongly for Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, but Middle Tennessee native Al Gore narrowly lost the region in 2000—a loss that ultimately cost him Tennessee, and the election. In contrast, it was one of the few regions in the country which voted more Republican than in 2004.[25] This is largely due to a growing social conservative trend in the region, particularly in the Nashville suburbs; some of the most politically active churches in the state are located there.

On the other hand, Barack Obama did improve relatively well upon John Kerry's performances in the traditionally Democratic cities of Nashville and Memphis. In the former, support amongst progressive whites led to a 3–2 victory for Obama in Davidson County.[25] In Memphis, heavy African American turnout ensured him the largest margin in the state in Shelby County, although far from enough to outweigh his losses everywhere else in the state. McCain, however, carried the third- and fourth- most populated cities of Chattanooga in Hamilton County as well as Knoxville in Knox County.

During the same election, at the state level, Republicans picked up four seats in the Tennessee House of Representatives and three seats in the Tennessee Senate to obtain control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2008". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 4, 2008. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ "Democratic Primary Presidential Preference" (PDF). Tennessee Department of State. February 5, 2008. Retrieved May 19, 2008.
  3. ^ "Republican Primary Presidential Preference" (PDF).
  4. ^ "RESULTS: Tennessee". CNN. February 5, 2008. Retrieved February 5, 2008.
  5. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  6. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  7. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  8. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  9. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  10. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  11. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  12. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  13. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  14. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  15. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  16. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  17. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  18. ^ [1] Archived November 28, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on January 18, 2009. Retrieved August 18, 2009.
  20. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  21. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  22. ^ "Official General Election Results". The Green Papers. Retrieved December 12, 2008.
  23. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2008" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. November 4, 2008. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  24. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  25. ^ a b "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved May 17, 2009.