Vermont gubernatorial election, 2014

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Vermont gubernatorial election, 2014
Vermont
2012 ←
November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) → 2016

  Peter Shumlin 2012.jpg No image.svg No image.svg
Nominee Peter Shumlin Scott Milne Dan Feliciano
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 89,509 87,075 8,428
Percentage 46.36% 45.1% 4.36%

Vermont Governor Election Results by County, 2014.svg

County results

Governor before election

Peter Shumlin
Democratic

Elected Governor

Peter Shumlin
Democratic

The 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Vermont, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin ran for re-election to a third term in office against Republican businessman Scott Milne, Libertarian businessman Dan Feliciano and several other minor party and independent candidates.

Shumlin was expected to win easily but although he won the most votes, he did not receive a majority. The Constitution of Vermont requires that the 180-member Vermont General Assembly choose the winner when no candidate receives over 50% of the popular vote.[1] On January 8, 2015,[2] the Assembly chose Shumlin over Milne by a vote of 110 to 69.[3]

Background[edit]

Four-term Republican Governor Jim Douglas did not run for re-election in 2010. In the race to succeed him, Democratic nominee Peter Shumlin, the President Pro Tempore of the Vermont Senate, received 49.5% of the vote while Republican nominee Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie received 47.7%. As neither candidate received a majority, the General Assembly was required to pick the winner in January 2011. Dubie did not contest the vote; he conceded the race on election night and called for Vermont to "unite" around Shumlin.[4] Shumlin won the Assembly vote 145 to 28, with 7 legislators not voting.

Shumlin was re-elected in 2012 against Republican State Senator and former Vermont Auditor of Accounts Randy Brock by a landslide, 58% to 37.7%.

Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. An incumbent governor of Vermont has not been defeated for re-election since 1962, when Democrat Philip H. Hoff beat Republican F. Ray Keyser, Jr. by 1,315 votes.[5]

Democratic primary[edit]

Shumlin announced in December 2013 that he was running for re-election to a third term in office, but said that he would not begin campaigning until after Labor Day 2014, just two months before the election.[6] He faced one opponent in the Democratic primary, lifelong Republican and Washington, D.C. resident H. Brooke Paige, who simultaneously ran against Democratic incumbent William Sorrell in the Democratic primary election for Vermont Attorney General. He was also unsuccessful in that effort, losing by 80% to 20%.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Peter Shumlin 15,260 76.96
Democratic H. Brooke Paige 3,199 16.13
Democratic Write-in 1,369 6.9
Total votes 19,828 100

Republican primary[edit]

The Republicans initially struggled to recruit a candidate. Former Governor Douglas and Lieutenant Governor Phillip Scott announced early on that they would not run and it was not until March 2014 that a candidate entered the race: marijuana legalization activist and former Independent gubernatorial candidate Emily Peyton.[11] This spurred Republicans to recruit a serious candidate, but they struggled to do so.[11] Former Wall Street banker Bruce Lisman announced in May 2014 that he was not running, and attention turned to former State Senator and 2012 nominee Randy Brock, State Representative Heidi Scheuermann and businessman Scott Milne.[12]

In May, Scheuermann said that she would not run, leaving the party with a month until the June 12 filing deadline to find a candidate.[13] Milne, who was traveling in Africa, announced that he would decide shortly before the deadline.[13] Brock was urged to run and considered doing so,[14] but revealed on June 8 that he would not.[15] On the morning of filing deadline day, Milne announced that he would run.[16] He was joined in the Republican primary by Peyton and retired marketer and self-described "modern-day Mark Twain" Steve Berry.[8] Also running but not appearing on the ballot was Dan Feliciano, who ran as a write-in candidate for the Republican nomination and was uncontested for the Libertarian nomination.[17]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Steve Berry, retired marketer[8][18]
  • Dan Feliciano, businessman and Independent candidate for Governor in 2010 (write-in; also ran as a Libertarian)[17]
  • Scott Milne, businessman, candidate for the State House in 2006 and son of former State Legislators Don and Marion Milne[16]
  • Emily Peyton, Independent candidate for Governor in 2010 and 2012 (also ran as an independent)[11]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Milne 11,486 71.74
Republican Steve Berry 1,106 6.91
Republican Emily Peyton 1,060 6.62
Republican Write-in 2,358 14.73
Total votes 16,010 100

Progressive primary[edit]

Members of the Vermont Progressive Party, which had not run a candidate against Shumlin in 2010 or 2012, openly discussed challenging him in 2014. Previously satisfied with his support for single-payer health care and his efforts to close Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant, they disapproved of his proposed cuts to social programs. But the party openly admitted that it lacked the money to run a gubernatorial campaign, and no candidate came forward to run.[22][23][24]

Candidates[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Progressive primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
VT Progressive Write-in 114 100

Liberty Union primary[edit]

Peter Diamondstone, who co-founded the Liberty Union Party and has run for elected office almost two dozen times, was unopposed.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Peter Diamondstone, party co-founder and perennial candidate[25]

Results[edit]

Liberty Union primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Liberty Union Peter Diamondstone 133 89.26
Liberty Union Write-in 16 10.74
Total votes 149 100

Libertarian nomination[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Dan Feliciano, businessman and Independent candidate for Governor in 2010 (also ran as a write-in in the Republican primary)[26]

Independent[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

  • Bruce Lisman, banker[12]

General election[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Peter
Shumlin (D)
Scott
Milne (R)
Emily
Peyton (I)
Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 329 ± 8% 47% 35% 2% 2% 13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 328 ± 6% 46% 29% 11% 2% 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 430 ± 6% 45% 35% 2% 3% 15%
Rasmussen Reports August 28–29, 2014 700 ± 4% 48% 36% 7% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 512 ± ? 52% 27% 15% 0% 6%

Results[edit]

2014 Vermont gubernatorial election[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Peter Shumlin 89,509 46.36
Republican Scott Milne 87,075 45.1
Libertarian Dan Feliciano 8,428 4.36
Independent Emily Peyton 3,157 1.64
Liberty Union Peter Diamondstone 1,673 0.87
Independent Bernard Peters 1,434 0.74
Independent Cris Ericson 1,089 0.56
Independent Write-ins 722 0.37
Total votes 193,087 100

Results by district[edit]

Of Vermont's 275 "polling places" that report results separately—corresponding to the state's 255 towns and cities, with some larger municipalities broken into multiple precincts—Milne won a plurality in 162 precincts, or 58.9%. Shumlin won 112, or 40.7%, and they were tied in one other.[29] Shumlin won the state's biggest voting area, Burlington (representing 9,604 gubernatorial voters), by a margin of 66% to 23%. Of the state's 10 largest municipalities, Shumlin also won South Burlington, Bennington, Montpelier, Hartford and Middlebury. Milne won Essex, Colchester, Rutland City, Williston and Barre Town.[29] Of Vermont's 13 multi-member Senate districts, aligning roughly with the state's 14 counties, Milne won eight (61.5%) and Shumlin five (38.5%).[29] Milne won the popular vote in 53 House districts; Shumlin won in 51.[30]

Analysis[edit]

As no candidate received a majority of the vote, the Vermont General Assembly was required to decide the election, choosing among the top three vote-getters, Shumlin, Milne and Feliciano. The result came as a shock to most observers, who had expected Shumlin to win easily.[31][32][33] RealClearPolitics rated the race "Likely Democratic" and The Cook Political Report, Daily Kos Elections, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race "Safe Democratic".[34] RealClearPolitics reported an average lead in the polls of 15.2% for Shumlin[35] and HuffPost Pollster's model estimated Shumlin would beat Milne 51.1% to 37% with the probability that Shumlin would win the election at 95%.[36]

Analyzing the results, The Burlington Free Press pointed to Shumlin's relatively soft numbers in opinion polls – he was in the mid-40s in the last four polls of the race – as evidence that voters were dissatisfied with the progress the state had made in instituting single-payer health care, with rising property taxes, and with the bungled roll-out of Vermont Health Connect, the state's federal health care exchange.[37] Shumlin's internal polls showed a close race and he touted an endorsement from popular U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy to try and put him over 50%.[37] By comparison, Milne lagged in fundraising and spending, with just $100,000 available compared to Shumlin's $1.1 million, which meant that he could not even afford to pay for polling.[37]

The presence of Libertarian nominee Dan Feliciano on the ballot divided opinion, with Milne and former Republican Governor Jim Douglas saying that he split the anti-Shumlin vote. By contrast, the Free Press said that Feliciano was likely to have drawn many voters dissatisfied with Shumlin but who would not have otherwise have voted for Milne. Feliciano agreed with this assessment, saying that he was "not a spoiler".[37] Republicans wondered whether they should have done more to push Feliciano out, whether Milne should have run more strongly against single-payer, whether 2012 nominee and former State Auditor Randy Brock should have run again, and whether the state party should have been less focused on state legislative races.[37]

Analysis by political experts pointed to the record low voter turnout–around 43.6%–and the fact that 39,000 more people voted for Democratic Congressman Peter Welch than voted for Shumlin as a sign of dissatisfaction with Shumlin.[29] University of Vermont political science professor Garrison Nelson said that "the people who showed up are the angry ones" and that, unlike Shumlin, "Welch demonstrated an appeal far beyond just the Democratic base."[38]

In a news conference on November 12, Shumlin stated that the result was "humbling" and said that he would "listen, learn, reflect [and] be more inclusive." He also pledged to move ahead with single-payer health care and to address school spending, property taxes and the $100m budget gap.[39]

General Assembly vote[edit]

Since 1853, the General Assembly has selected the first-place finisher in every gubernatorial election that has come before it,[30] most recently in 2010, when Shumlin received 49.5% of the vote and was chosen over Republican Brian Dubie, and in 2002, when the Democratic-controlled legislature picked Republican Jim Douglas, who had received 44.9%, over Democrat Doug Racine, who received 42.4%.[40] The Assembly most recently reversed a plurality vote in the 1976 lieutenant gubernatorial election, when the Republican-controlled legislature picked Republican T. Garry Buckley rather than Democrat John Alden, who was suspected, and later convicted, of insurance fraud.[41][42][43]

Although the second-place finisher usually concedes the race, as happened in 2002 and 2010,[44][45] Milne refused to concede. He considered requesting a recount, but did not do so, reasoning that it was "extremely unlikely, almost unfathomable, that a recount would put either candidate above the 50 percent mark."[46] Before the election, Milne said that if Shumlin won a plurality, he would support him and would expect Shumlin to do the same if the situation were reversed.[30] But after the election, he said, "it's clear that 54% of Vermonters want a new governor, and a new path forward."[46]

As 91 votes are needed to elect the Governor from the 180-member body and Democrats and Progressives held 112 seats, it was considered unlikely that Milne would win.[47] Milne argued that legislators should decide the election in line with how their individual districts voted.[48] Neal Goswami of the Vermont Press Bureau calculated that if each legislator voted according to the results in their district, the vote would result in a 90–90 tie.[30] Milne disagreed with this calculation and claimed voting according to district outcome would result in his winning 93–87.[47]

The fact is that fewer people voted for Scott Milne than voted for Peter Shumlin. Milne did not get a majority, either. I just don’t think he has a case to be made that a majority, or even a plurality of voters, want him to be governor. I don’t think that I will probably have to persuade [other legislators of this], quite frankly.

 — State House Speaker Shap Smith, whose district voted for Milne, explaining why he will vote for Shumlin.[30]

Republican legislative leaders said that they would not whip their members to vote for Shumlin, leaving them free to vote their consciences. Though Republican Lieutenant Governor Phillip Scott did not have a vote, he said that he would vote for Shumlin, and Republican State Representative Kurt Wright said that he would do so.[49] Initially, no Democrats indicated that they would vote for Milne.[30] Indeed, several Democrats whose districts voted for Milne over Shumlin said that they would vote for Shumlin, citing his plurality win.[30]

For almost a month, Milne made no further comment as he considered whether to lobby for legislators' votes.[50][51][52] Former Governor Douglas cautioned Milne against waging a legislative campaign for Governor, saying that it was "unlikely" to be an effective strategy and that Milne should seek to preserve the "good will that he has accrued" by "acknowledg[ing] the result and com[ing] back [to] fight another day."[53]

Then, on December 8, Milne held a press conference in which he defied suggestions that he would concede by officially announcing that he was asking state legislators to vote for him. He went on to say that he would not be "pro-actively" trying to convince legislators to vote for him, nor would he start "twisting arms", but that his "door is open" and called on legislators to "consider the record of the incumbent" and what was "best" for Vermont.[54][55] Shumlin responded that he was "honored to have received the most votes in this election and would not want to serve as governor if I did not." He went on to say that he believed that "the Legislature will honor the long democratic tradition of electing the candidate who received the most votes."[54]

After Milne's announcement, Independent State Representative Paul Poirier, a liberal whose district voted for Milne by a 2-to-1 margin, announced that he would vote for Milne. One Democrat, State Representative Jim Condon, said that he would vote for Milne, also citing his district's support for Milne over Shumlin.[54] Political science professors Eric Davis and Garrison Nelson and House Minority Leader Don Turner expected the General Assembly vote to roughly follow party lines, with Milne receiving about one-third of the votes, including most of the Republicans and a few Democrats and Independents.[50][54]

On December 17, Shumlin announced that he was dropping his plan to implement single-payer healthcare. The reforms, which required business and personal tax increases, had never advanced beyond the framework stage. Shumlin, who had missed two earlier financing deadlines, said that "this is not the right time" because the federal government had offered less funding than expected and "the potential economic disruption and risks would be too great to small businesses, working families and the state's economy."[56] The media also cited controversy surrounding comments made by economist Jonathan Gruber, who was involved in crafting and advocating for the plan, and Shumlin's failure to win a majority in the election as reasons for the cancellation.[56][57] The decision, which Shumlin called the "biggest disappointment" of his career, drew a mixed response.[58][59] Business groups lauded his "pragmatic" move but supporters of health care reform organized protests and said that it would end his political career.[60][61]

At the end of December, the newly-formed group "Vermonters for Honest Government" raised $30,000 to air television advertisements aimed at pressuring legislators to vote for Milne. The group's founder, retired United States Navy Captain Bill Round, said that legislators should vote against Shumlin because "he's promised a lot and failed to deliver."[62][63] Round did not reveal the source of the group's funding. Milne said that while he had no connection to the group, he appreciated the sentiment.[64] By contrast, Shumlin said that he would "absolutely not" run any advertisements, nor would he campaign for legislators' votes or spend any money. He added that he was "not worried" about the vote.[65]

In early January, Milne reiterated that he was not actively campaigning for legislators' votes but said that he felt that his odds of victory were "getting better on a weekly basis, if not a daily basis."[66] Shumlin said that if Milne were to win, Vermont would be "paralyzed", as the new administration lacked the time needed to assemble a new staff and draft a budget for the 2016 fiscal year. He also offered his support for amending the state constitution so that as long as a plurality winner received at least 40% of the vote, the Assembly would not be required to decide the election.[67]

On January 8, the General Assembly voted to re-elect Shumlin by 110 votes to 69, with one legislator not voting. Shumlin stated that he was "grateful for the opportunity to continue serving this state I love. I expect this will be a productive session addressing the issues Vermonters care about so deeply." Milne said that it was "a good day for Vermont... I was happy to be a part of it. I think the road that's led us here has a lot of people feeling like one person can make a difference."[3] He has not ruled out running again in 2016.[68]

Results[edit]

2014 Vermont gubernatorial election, Vermont General Assembly vote[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Peter Shumlin 110 61.45
Republican Scott Milne 69 38.55
Libertarian Dan Feliciano 0 0
Total votes 179 of 180 100

References[edit]

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External links[edit]