Victorian state election, 2014

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Victorian state election, 2014
Victoria (Australia)
2010 ←
29 November 2014

  Premier Denis Napthine.jpg Daniel Andrews at Kew Festival (cropped).jpg
Leader Denis Napthine Daniel Andrews
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 6 March 2013 3 December 2010
Leader's seat South-West Coast Mulgrave
Last election 45 seats 43 seats
Current seats 44 seats 43 seats
Seats needed Increase1 Increase2
TPP @ 2010 51.6% 48.4%
TPP polling 47% 53%
BP polling 39% 28%

Incumbent Premier

Denis Napthine
Liberal/National coalition

The next Victorian state election is scheduled for 29 November 2014. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition minority government, currently led by Premier Denis Napthine, will be challenged by the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition, currently led by Daniel Andrews.

Victoria has compulsory voting and uses preferential ballot in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Date[edit]

Terms are fixed at four years unless dissolved earlier by the Governor. The election will occur in line with the fixed-term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.[1]

Background[edit]

The Coalition won the 2010 Victorian state election with 45 seats to 43 in the 88-member lower house, a swing of 12 seats, defeating the 11-year Labor government.

With a Coalition MP as Speaker, the government operated with a one-seat margin of 44 seats to 43, until the resignation of Geoff Shaw, the member for Frankston, from the Liberal Party on 6 March 2013.[2] This means the government now has only 43 votes on the floor of the parliament, equal to Labor's total. Partly due to Shaw's defection, Premier Ted Baillieu resigned later on 6 March and was succeeded as Liberal leader and Premier by Ports Minister Denis Napthine. Shaw verbally guaranteed the Napthine Government support on matters of supply and confidence, allowing it to stay in office as a minority government.

The government operates with a one-seat margin in the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, with 21 Coalition, 16 Labor and 3 Greens members.[3][4]

Labor retained seats at the Broadmeadows, Niddrie, Melbourne and Lyndhurst by-elections.

Casual vacancies were created in various Legislative Council seats by the departures of Labor MP Martin Pakula (who moved to the Legislative Assembly seat of Lyndhurst)[5] (Western Metropolitan) and Liberal MPs Donna Petrovich[6] (Northern Victoria) & Philip Davis[7] (Eastern Victoria). Their seats were filled by Cesar Melhem,[8] Amanda Millar[9] and Andrew Ronalds[10] respectively, each being appointed by a joint sitting of Parliament.

Redistribution[edit]

A redistribution of Victoria's state electoral boundaries took place from 2012 to 2013. The final boundaries were gazetted on 17 October 2013 and will be used for the 2014 state election.[11]

Fifteen electorates were abolished, namely Ballarat East (Labor), Ballarat West (Labor), Benalla (Nationals), Clayton (Labor), Derrimut (Labor), Doncaster (Liberal), Keilor (Labor), Kilsyth (Liberal), Lyndhurst (Labor), Mitcham (Liberal), Murray Valley (Nationals), Rodney (Nationals), Scoresby (Liberal), Seymour (Liberal) and Swan Hill (Nationals).[11]

The fifteen new seats are Buninyong (Labor, largely replacing Ballarat East), Clarinda (Labor, largely replacing Clayton), Croydon (Liberal, largely replacing Kilsyth), Eildon (Liberal, combining sections of abolished Seymour with areas of existing Gembrook), Euroa (Nationals, largely replacing Benalla), Keysborough (Labor, largely replacing Lyndhurst), Murray Plains (Nationals, largely replacing Swan Hill and parts of Rodney), Ovens Valley (Nationals, largely replacing Murray Valley), Ringwood (Liberal, largely replacing Mitcham), Rowville (Liberal, largely replacing Scoresby), St Albans (Labor, largely replacing Derrimut), Sunbury (Labor, created from parts of Macedon and Yuroke), Sydenham (Labor, largely replacing Keilor), Wendouree (Liberal, largely replacing Ballarat West), and Werribee (Labor, formed from parts of Lara and Tarneit).[11]

Five electorates changed boundaries notionally, including Wendouree, a notional Liberal seat created from the Labor seat of Ballarat West. According to ABC psephologist Antony Green, the Labor-held seats of Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon and Yan Yean became notionally Liberal.[11]

Retiring MPs[edit]

Members who have chosen not to renominate are as follows:

Labor[edit]

Liberal[edit]

National[edit]

Polling[edit]

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
Jan–Feb 2014 35% 3% 39% 13% 10% 47% 53%
Sep–Oct 2013 36% 3% 38% 14% 9% 47% 53%
Jul–Aug 2013 37% 4% 38% 13% 8% 49% 51%
May–Jun 2013 40% 3% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
Mar–Apr 2013 38% 5% 37% 12% 8% 50% 50%
Jan–Feb 2013 35% 4% 38% 13% 10% 47% 53%
Nov–Dec 2012 33% 3% 38% 16% 10% 45% 55%
Sep–Oct 2012 35% 2% 41% 13% 9% 45% 55%
Jul–Aug 2012 37% 4% 35% 13% 11% 50% 50%
Mar–Apr 2012 37% 5% 32% 17% 9% 51% 49%
Jan–Feb 2012 42% 3% 33% 14% 8% 53% 47%
Nov–Dec 2011 40% 3% 34% 15% 8% 51% 49%
Sep–Oct 2011 43% 4% 30% 15% 8% 55% 45%
Jul–Aug 2011 44% 4% 28% 15% 9% 57% 43%
2010 election 38.0% 6.7% 36.3% 11.2% 7.8% 51.6% 48.4%
23–25 Nov 2010 40% 5% 33% 15% 7% 51.1% 48.9%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
Better Premier and satisfaction polling^
Better Premier Napthine Andrews
Napthine Andrews Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Jan–Feb 2014 39% 28% 43% 35% 32% 33%
Sep–Oct 2013 41% 27% 42% 36% 35% 31%
Jul–Aug 2013 47% 25% 53% 31% 38% 32%
May–Jun 2013 49% 26% 53% 26% 35% 34%
Mar–Apr 2013 43% 24% 50% 19% 42% 28%
Jan–Feb 2013 38%1 31% 31%1 53%1 30% 36%
Nov–Dec 2012 39%1 30% 33%1 48%1 32% 34%
Sep–Oct 2012 39%1 30% 31%1 53%1 29% 36%
Jul–Aug 2012 40%1 26% 32%1 50%1 28% 36%
Mar–Apr 2012 46%1 23% 36%1 45%1 28% 35%
Jan–Feb 2012 51%1 19% 41%1 38%1 23% 36%
Nov–Dec 2011 53%1 18% 49%1 33%1 30% 32%
Sep–Oct 2011 56%1 19% 52%1 29%1 29% 33%
Jul–Aug 2011 57%1 16% 52%1 29%1 27% 34%
2010 election
23–25 Nov 2010 38%1 44%1 44%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 Ted Baillieu.


References[edit]

  1. ^ Section 63, Electoral Act 2002. Retrieved 6 September 2010.
  2. ^ "Government may be in balance as MP quits: report". The Age (Melbourne). 6 March 2013. Retrieved 6 March 2013. 
  3. ^ "Upper house summary". ABC. Retrieved 1 February 2012. 
  4. ^ Ryan Sheales. "Coalition wins Upper House majority: ABC 14 December 2010". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 1 February 2012. 
  5. ^ Contact Us (2013-03-18). "Martin Pakula to stand for Lyndhurst". Brimbankweekly.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  6. ^ Richard Willingham (2012-03-28). "Liberal candidate in key seat sparks ire over house claims". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  7. ^ Henrietta Cook (2013-10-10). "Liberal MP Philip Davis resigns from parliament". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  8. ^ "Union official Cesar Melhem enters State Parliament". 
  9. ^ "New Liberal member endorsed". 
  10. ^ "Liberals preselect Davis replacement". /
  11. ^ a b c d Green, Antony: 2013 Victorian Redistribution, ABC Elections.
  12. ^ http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/another-victorian-labor-mp-quits/story-fni0xqi4-1226767767622
  13. ^ "Twitter / rwillingham: And another Labor retirement". Twitter.com. 2013-11-24. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  14. ^ November 13, 2013 (2013-11-13). "Life After Parliament". Christine Campbell. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  15. ^ "Labor MP Joanne Duncan to resign from Parliament". News.com.au. 4 November 2013. Retrieved 4 November 2013. 
  16. ^ Dalgleish, Cassandra (3 December 2012). "Helper plans life after politics". Stock & Land. Retrieved 11 October 2013. 
  17. ^ a b Richard Willingham (2012-03-28). "Justin Madden announces retirement from politics". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  18. ^ http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/south-east/ironman-mp-john-pandazopoulos-announces-he-wont-recontest-the-seat-of-dandenong/story-fngnvmhm-1226769565954
  19. ^ Dundas, Greg (2014-02-03). "Trezise calls time, Geelong up for grabs in state election". Geelong Advertiser. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  20. ^ "Sixth Vic ALP MP in a month calls it quits". The Australian. 20 November 2013. 
  21. ^ Richard Willingham (2012-03-28). "Labor's upper house preselection will bypass rank and file members". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  22. ^ "Twitter / bellfrances: Former Labor Treasurer". Twitter.com. 2013-11-17. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  23. ^ http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/multicultural-affairs-minister-nicholas-kotsiras-announces-his-retirement-from-politics/story-fni0fit3-1226800004393
  24. ^ Richard Willingham (2012-03-28). "Liberal MP Andrew McIntosh to retire from state parliament". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  25. ^ Richard Willingham (2012-03-28). "Victorian parliament Speaker Ken Smith to retire". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  26. ^ "Long-serving Victorian Liberal frontbencher Andrea Coote announces resignation – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". Abc.net.au. 2014-01-19. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  27. ^ "Liberal infighting threatens Napthine". Melbourne: The Age. 2014-03-14. Retrieved 2014-03-14. 
  28. ^ "Mary Wooldridge's preselection chances improve as Eastern Metropolitan MP Jan Kronberg retires". Melbourne: The Age. 2014-03-19. Retrieved 2014-03-19. 
  29. ^ "Hugh Delahunty Retiring". 3wm.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  30. ^ Source AAP UPDATED 10:12 PM – 7 Feb 2014 (2014-02-07). "Vic MP Powell retires from Shepparton seat". Sbs.com.au. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  31. ^ Kotsios, Natalie (2014-01-09). "Benalla MP Bill Sykes calls it a day". The Border Mail. Retrieved 2014-02-16. 
  32. ^ "Peter Hall to leave politics". The Weekly Times. 24 February 2014. Retrieved 24 February 2014.