Victorian state election, 2014

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Victorian state election, 2014
Victoria (Australia)
2010 ←
29 November 2014 → 2018

All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
45 seats are needed for a majority
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
  First party Second party
  Daniel Andrews at Kew Festival (cropped).jpg Premier Denis Napthine.jpg
Leader Daniel Andrews Denis Napthine
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition
Leader since 3 December 2010 6 March 2013
Leader's seat Mulgrave South-West Coast
Last election 43 seats 45 seats
Seats before 43 seats 44 seats
Seats won 47 38
Seat change Increase4 Decrease7
Percentage 51.99% 48.01%
Swing Increase3.57 Decrease3.57

Premier before election

Denis Napthine
Liberal/National coalition

Elected Premier

Daniel Andrews
Labor

The 2014 Victorian state election was held on 29 November 2014. The incumbent centre-right Coalition minority government, led by Liberal Party leader and Premier Denis Napthine and National Party leader and Deputy Premier Peter Ryan, was defeated by the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition, led by Daniel Andrews. The Greens won two lower house seats, their first Legislative Assembly seats in a Victorian state election, whilst increasing their share of upper house seats. Victoria has compulsory voting and uses preferential ballot in single-member electorates for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member electorates for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

The election marked the first time in 60 years that a Victorian state government had been defeated after only one term. Furthermore, with counting still underway, the Nationals may be reduced to a total of nine seats in the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council, two short of official status in the legislature.[1] Following the election, both Napthine and Ryan resigned as leaders of the Liberal and National parties, respectively.

Background[edit]

The Coalition won the 2010 Victorian state election with 45 seats to 43 in the 88-member lower house, a swing of 12 seats, defeating the 11-year Labor government.

With a Coalition MP as Speaker, the government operated with a one-seat margin of 44 seats to 43, until the resignation of Geoff Shaw, the member for Frankston, from the Liberal Party on 6 March 2013.[2] This meant the government had only 43 votes on the floor of the parliament, equal to Labor's total. Partly due to Shaw's defection, Premier Ted Baillieu resigned later on 6 March and was succeeded as Liberal leader and Premier by Ports Minister Denis Napthine. Shaw initially guaranteed the Napthine Government support on matters of supply and confidence, allowing it to stay in office as a minority government, although later statements indicated that he had rescinded that earlier statement and was considering assisting an ALP Opposition vote of no confidence in the Napthine administration. If this had happened, his actions could have precipitated an early state election.[3][4]

The government operated with a one-seat margin in the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, with 21 Coalition, 16 Labor and 3 Greens members.[5][6]

Labor retained seats at the Broadmeadows, Niddrie, Melbourne and Lyndhurst by-elections.

Casual vacancies were created in various Legislative Council seats by the departures of Labor MPs Martin Pakula (Western Metropolitan - who moved to the Legislative Assembly seat of Lyndhurst)[7] and Candy Broad (Northern Victoria), and Liberal MPs Donna Petrovich[8] (Northern Victoria) and Philip Davis[9] (Eastern Victoria). Their seats were filled by Cesar Melhem,[10] Marg Lewis, Amanda Millar,[11]and Andrew Ronalds[12] respectively, each being appointed by a joint sitting of Parliament.

Registered parties[edit]

Twenty-one parties are currently registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), and all have announced their intention to field candidates at the 2014 state election:[13]

Additionally, two other parties applied for registration prior to the election,[15][16] but failed to achieve registration by the deadline:

Redistribution[edit]

A redistribution of Victoria's state electoral boundaries took place from 2012 to 2013. The final boundaries were gazetted on 17 October 2013 and were used for the 2014 state election.[17]

Fifteen electorates were abolished, namely Ballarat East (Labor), Ballarat West (Labor), Benalla (Nationals), Clayton (Labor), Derrimut (Labor), Doncaster (Liberal), Keilor (Labor), Kilsyth (Liberal), Lyndhurst (Labor), Mitcham (Liberal), Murray Valley (Nationals), Rodney (Nationals), Scoresby (Liberal), Seymour (Liberal) and Swan Hill (Nationals).[17]

The fifteen new seats are Buninyong (Labor, largely replacing Ballarat East), Clarinda (Labor, largely replacing Clayton), Croydon (Liberal, largely replacing Kilsyth), Eildon (Liberal, combining sections of abolished Seymour with areas of existing Gembrook), Euroa (Nationals, largely replacing Benalla), Keysborough (Labor, largely replacing Lyndhurst), Murray Plains (Nationals, largely replacing Swan Hill and parts of Rodney), Ovens Valley (Nationals, largely replacing Murray Valley), Ringwood (Liberal, largely replacing Mitcham), Rowville (Liberal, largely replacing Scoresby), St Albans (Labor, largely replacing Derrimut), Sunbury (Labor, created from parts of Macedon and Yuroke), Sydenham (Labor, largely replacing Keilor), Wendouree (Liberal, largely replacing Ballarat West), and Werribee (Labor, formed from parts of Lara and Tarneit).[17]

Five electorates changed boundaries notionally, including Wendouree, a notional Liberal seat created from the Labor seat of Ballarat West. According to ABC psephologist Antony Green, the Labor-held seats of Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon and Yan Yean became notionally Liberal.[17] This meant that Labor needed a notional five-seat swing to win government.

Issues[edit]

Much of the Labor campaign was focused on the Napthine Government's A$18 billion East West Link toll road project, which Labor opposed, and threatened to halt if it won power. In early November Prime Minister Tony Abbott, in one of his few Victorian appearances for the Liberals during the campaign, described the election as "a referendum on the East West Link".[18] Public transport also featured strongly during the campaign, with the parties presenting rival inner-city rail tunnel projects and competing plans to remove railway level crossings to ease road congestion.[19]

With unemployment at its highest level since 2001, jobs and the economy became a key issue and both sides promised major job creation schemes: the Coalition said it would create 200,000 jobs over five years and Labor said it would create 100,000 jobs within two years.[19] Other major issues raised during the election were the long-running Ambulance Victoria industrial dispute and slow ambulance response times, urban planning laws, education and law and order. Both major parties promised to build new and bigger hospitals.

Labor election advertising aimed to capitalise on the unpopularity of Australia's Liberal Prime Minister and unpopular federal Liberal policies, while much of the Coalition advertising depicted Andrews as a leader with close ties to the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union.[20][21]

Retiring MPs[edit]

Members who have chosen not to renominate are as follows:

Labor[edit]

Liberal[edit]

National[edit]

Results[edit]

Legislative Assembly[edit]

Lower house seat outcome of the 2014 Victorian state election

Victorian state election, 29 November 2014[43][44]
Legislative Assembly
<< 20102018 >>

Enrolled voters 3,806,301
Votes cast 3,540,140 Turnout 93.01 +0.05
Informal votes 184,815 Informal 5.22 +0.26
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes  % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,278,322 38.10 +1.84 47 +4*
  Liberal 1,223,474 36.46 −1.57 30 −5
  Greens 385,190 11.48 +0.27 2 +2
  National 185,619 5.53 −1.21 8 −2
  Country Alliance 43,038 1.28 −0.07 0 ±0
  Family First 37,194 1.11 −1.18 0 ±0
  Christians 26,545 0.79 +0.79 0 ±0
  Rise Up Australia 20,795 0.62 +0.62 0 ±0
  Voice for the West 16,584 0.49 +0.49 0 ±0
  Sex Party 8,930 0.27 −0.28 0 ±0
  Animal Justice 7,778 0.23 +0.23 0 ±0
  Democratic Labor 2,799 0.08 −0.81 0 ±0
  Shooters and Fishers 2,622 0.08 +0.08 0 ±0
  Socialist Alliance 1,728 0.05 −0.00 0 ±0
  People Power Victoria 1,375 0.04 +0.04 0 ±0
  The Basics Rock 'n' Roll 1,043 0.03 +0.03 0 ±0
  Independent 112,289 3.35 +0.74 1 +1
Total 3,355,325     88  
Two-Party Preferred
  Labor 1,745,020 51.99 +3.57
  Liberal/National 1,611,507 48.01 −3.57
* Labor also retained four of the five Labor seats which were made notionally Liberal by the 2013 redistribution.

Legislative Council[edit]

Victorian state election, 29 November 2014[43]
Legislative Council
<< 20102018 >>

Enrolled voters 3,806,301
Votes cast 3,539,730 Turnout 93.00 +0.07
Informal votes 120,880 Informal 3.41 +0.04
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes  % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal/National 1,235,114 36.13 −7.03    
    Liberal 14 −4
    National 2 −1
  Labor 1,143,834 33.46 −1.91 14 −2
  Greens 367,728 10.76 −1.25 5 +2
  Liberal Democrats 104,545 3.06 +3.06 0 ±0
  Sex Party 89,774 2.63 +0.71 1 +1
  Democratic Labour 79,291 2.32 −0.02 1 +1
  Palmer United 66,728 1.95 +1.95 0 ±0
  Family First 62,427 1.83 −1.03 0 ±0
  Animal Justice 58,158 1.70 +1.70 0 ±0
  Shooters and Fishers 56,555 1.65 +1.65 2 +2
  Christians 35,166 1.03 +1.03 0 ±0
  Country Alliance 23,175 0.68 −0.97 0 ±0
  Australian Cyclists 20,690 0.61 +0.61 0 ±0
  Rise Up Australia 17,684 0.52 +0.52 0 ±0
  Voluntary Euthanasia 16,787 0.49 +0.49 0 ±0
  People Power Victoria 12,080 0.35 +0.35 0 ±0
  Voice for the West 11,068 0.32 +0.32 0 ±0
  Vote 1 Local Jobs 7,111 0.21 +0.21 1 +1
  The Basics Rock 'n' Roll 6,346 0.19 +0.19 0 ±0
  Independent 4,589 0.13 −0.20 0 ±0
Total 3,418,850     40  

Seats changing hands[edit]

Following the election, the seats of Frankston and Prahran were initially too close to call, with around a hundred votes separating candidates.[45] Prahran was a three-way contest between Labor, Liberal, and the Greens, and this seat proved to be the tightest contest among all the lower house seats.[45][46] The VEC declared Prahran had been won by the Greens on 9 December, whereby the Greens overtook the ALP from third place, to defeat the Liberal incumbent in the final distribution of preferences. The Greens' win was confirmed in the recount held the following day.[47]

Seats changing hands[48]
Seat Pre-2014 Swing Post-2014
Party Member Margin* Margin Member Party
Bentleigh Liberal Elizabeth Miller 0.9 1.7 0.8 Nick Staikos Labor
Carrum Liberal Donna Bauer 0.3 1.0 0.7 Sonya Kilkenny Labor
Frankston Independent Geoff Shaw 0.4 0.9 0.5 Paul Edbrooke Labor
Melbourne   Labor Jennifer Kanis 4.7 7.1 2.4 Ellen Sandell Greens  
Mordialloc Liberal Lorraine Wreford 1.5 3.6 2.1 Tim Richardson Labor
Prahran Liberal Clem Newton-Brown 4.7 5.1 0.4 Sam Hibbins Greens
Shepparton National Jeanette Powell 25.9 28.5 2.6 Suzanna Sheed Independent
* This margin is notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2013 redistribution. As such, it may vary from 2010 election results.

The seats of Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon, and Yan Yean were won by Labor at the 2010 election, but redistributions in 2013 made them notionally Liberal seats.[49][50][51][52] Similarly, the redistribution largely replaced Ballarat West with Wendouree; Ballarat West was also won by Labor at the 2010 election, but notionally Liberal post-redistribution.[53]

Seat 2010 Election 2013 Redistribution Swing 2014 Election
Party Member Margin Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bellarine   Labor Lisa Neville 1.4   Liberal Notional 2.5 8.0 5.5 Lisa Neville Labor  
Monbulk Labor James Merlino 1.9 Liberal Notional 1.1 6.0 4.9 James Merlino Labor
Ripon Labor Joe Helper 2.7 Liberal Notional 1.6 −0.6 1.0 Louise Staley Liberal
Wendouree Labor Sharon Knight* 1.1 Liberal New Seat 0.1 6.0 5.9 Sharon Knight Labor
Yan Yean Labor Danielle Green 4.1 Liberal Notional 0.1 3.4 3.3 Danielle Green Labor
* Sharon Knight held the abolished seat of Ballarat West, which was largely replaced with Wendouree by the redistribution.

Key dates[edit]

Terms are fixed at four years unless dissolved earlier by the Governor. The election will occur in line with the fixed-term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.[54]

Key dates for the election are;[55]

  • 4 November: Writs issued by the Governor of Victoria
  • 5 November: Opening of nominations for all candidates
  • 13 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
  • 14 November: Close of nominations for independents
  • 29 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)

Polling[edit]

Graph of Victoria state election polling from 2010 election to 2014 election.
Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos[56] 42%* 35% 15% 8% 48% 52%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 4% 39% 12% 9% 48% 52%
27 Nov 2014 ReachTEL[57] 34.5% 5.2% 38.3% 13.5% 8.5% 48% 52%
26–27 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[58] 44%* 36% 13.5% 6.5% 50% 50%
25–26 Nov 2014 Galaxy[59] 40%* 39% 13% 8% 48% 52%
7–24 Nov 2014 Essential[60] 40%* 39% 13% 8% 48% 52%
21–24 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[61] 39.5%* 33.5% 17.5% 9.5% 48% 52%
19–20 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[62] 35%* 35.5% 19.5% 10% 45% 55%
18–19 Nov 2014 Galaxy[63] 35% 5% 39% 13% 8% 48% 52%
7–10 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[64] 38%* 36% 18.5% 7.5% 46.5% 53.5%
6–9 Nov 2014 Ipsos[65] 39%* 39% 16% 8% 44% 56%
27–30 Oct 2014 Newspoll 35% 4% 41% 13% 7% 46% 54%
24–27 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan[66] 37.5%* 34% 18.5% 10% 47.5% 52.5%
23–26 Oct 2014 Ipsos[67] 39%* 37% 17% 9% 44% 56%
23 Oct 2014 ReachTEL[68] 34.7% 3.9% 37.5% 13.3% 10.5% 47% 53%
22–24 Oct 2014 Galaxy[69] 35% 5% 38% 13% 9% 48% 52%
26–29 Sep 2014 Roy Morgan[70] 37.5%* 34% 18% 10.5% 46% 54%
14–15 Aug 2014 Galaxy[69] 35% 5% 38% 12% 10% 48% 52%
Jul–Aug 2014 Newspoll 32% 3% 37% 16% 12% 45% 55%
May–Jun 2014 Newspoll 33% 4% 38% 16% 9% 46% 54%
26–27 Feb 2014 Galaxy[69] 37% 5% 39% 12% 7% 49% 51%
Jan–Feb 2014 Newspoll 35% 3% 39% 13% 10% 47% 53%
21 Nov 2013 ReachTEL[71] 39.1% 4.3% 35.8% 11% 9.9%
Sep–Oct 2013 Newspoll 36% 3% 38% 14% 9% 47% 53%
Jul–Aug 2013 Newspoll 37% 4% 38% 13% 8% 49% 51%
May–Jun 2013 Newspoll 40% 3% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
30 May 2013 ReachTEL[72] 37.9% 5.7% 32.5% 13.6% 10.4%
12 Apr 2013 ReachTEL[73] 45.2% 4.3% 35.3% 11.5% 3.8%
Mar–Apr 2013 Newspoll 38% 5% 37% 12% 8% 50% 50%
7 Mar 2013 ReachTEL[74] 40.1% 4.8% 36.9% 12.3% 6%
6 March 2013 Denis Napthine becomes Liberal leader and Victorian Premier
22 Feb 2013 ReachTEL[75] 37.6% 6.6% 34.9% 12.6% 8.2%
Jan–Feb 2013 Newspoll 35% 4% 38% 13% 10% 47% 53%
25 Jan 2013 ReachTEL[76] 34.4% 3.5% 36.8% 12.4% 13.1%
Nov–Dec 2012 Newspoll 33% 3% 38% 16% 10% 45% 55%
Sep–Oct 2012 Newspoll 35% 2% 41% 13% 9% 45% 55%
Jul–Aug 2012 Newspoll 37% 4% 35% 13% 11% 50% 50%
5–13 June 2012 Roy Morgan[77] 44.5%* 33.5% 15.5% 6.5% 52% 48%
Mar–Apr 2012 Newspoll 37% 5% 32% 17% 9% 51% 49%
20–28 Mar 2012 Roy Morgan[77] 45.5%* 35.5% 12.5% 6.5% 53% 47%
Jan–Feb 2012 Newspoll 42% 3% 33% 14% 8% 53% 47%
Nov–Dec 2011 Newspoll 40% 3% 34% 15% 8% 51% 49%
Sep–Oct 2011 Newspoll 43% 4% 30% 15% 8% 55% 45%
Jul–Aug 2011 Newspoll 44% 4% 28% 15% 9% 57% 43%
5–10 Apr 2011 Roy Morgan[77] 48%* 31% 11.5% 9.5% 57% 43%
3 December 2010 Daniel Andrews becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
30 Nov–1 Dec 2010 Roy Morgan[77] 46%* 32% 14% 8% 57% 43%
2010 election 38.0% 6.7% 36.3% 11.2% 7.8% 51.6% 48.4%
23–25 Nov 2010 Newspoll 40% 5% 33% 15% 7% 51.1% 48.9%
22–25 Nov 2010 Roy Morgan[77] 44.5%* 35.5% 13% 7% 51% 49%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here
Graph of Victorian better premier polling - 2010 to 2014.
Graph of Victorian Liberal leader satisfaction polling, 2010-2014.
Graph of Victorian Labor leader satisfaction polling, 2010-2014.
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Napthine Andrews
Napthine Andrews Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos[56] 44% 42% 49% 40% 42% 43%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 41% 45% 38% 43%
26–27 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[58] 50.5% 49.5% not asked
25–26 Nov 2014 Galaxy[59] 41% 38% not asked
21–24 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[61] 51.5% 48.5% not asked
19–20 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[62] 47.5% 52.5% not asked
18–19 Nov 2014 Galaxy[63] 42% 30% not asked
7–10 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[64] 51.5% 48.5% not asked
6–9 Nov 2014 Ipsos[65] 42% 39% 46% 37% 40% 37%
27–30 Oct 2014 Newspoll 47% 33% 46% 41% 36% 45%
24–27 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan[66] 52% 48% not asked
23–26 Oct 2014 Ipsos[67] 45% 36% 47% 38% 37% 42%
22–24 Oct 2014 Galaxy[69] 43% 27% not asked
26–29 Sep 2014 Roy Morgan[70] 51% 49% not asked
14–15 Aug 2014 Galaxy[69] 41% 33% not asked
Jul–Aug 2014 Newspoll 41% 31% 40% 43% 32% 41%
May–Jun 2014 Newspoll 42% 29% 44% 40% 35% 37%
26–27 Feb 2014 Galaxy[69] 40% 32% not asked
Jan–Feb 2014 Newspoll 39% 28% 43% 35% 32% 33%
21–Nov 2013 ReachTEL[71] 47.5% 52.5% not asked
Sep–Oct 2013 Newspoll 41% 27% 42% 36% 35% 31%
Jul–Aug 2013 Newspoll 47% 25% 53% 31% 38% 32%
May–Jun 2013 Newspoll 49% 26% 53% 26% 35% 34%
30–May 2013 ReachTEL[72] 51.6% 48.4% not asked
12–Apr 2013 ReachTEL[73] 52% 48% not asked
Mar–Apr 2013 Newspoll 43% 24% 50% 19% 42% 28%
7–Mar 2013 ReachTEL[74] 46.5% 53.5% not asked
6 March 2013 Napthine replaces Baillieu Baillieu Andrews Baillieu Andrews
22–Feb 2013 ReachTEL[75] 41.3% 58.7% not asked
Jan–Feb 2013 Newspoll 38% 31% 31% 53% 30% 36%
25–Jan 2013 ReachTEL[76] 44.4% 55.6% not asked
Nov–Dec 2012 Newspoll 39% 30% 33% 48% 32% 34%
Sep–Oct 2012 Newspoll 39% 30% 31% 53% 29% 36%
Jul–Aug 2012 Newspoll 40% 26% 32% 50% 28% 36%
5–13 June 2012 Roy Morgan[77] 41% 33.5% 29% 53.5% 28% 35%
Mar–Apr 2012 Newspoll 46% 23% 36% 45% 28% 35%
20–28 Mar 2012 Roy Morgan[77] 53.5% 22% 40% 38% 20% 36%
Jan–Feb 2012 Newspoll 51% 19% 41% 38% 23% 36%
Nov–Dec 2011 Newspoll 53% 18% 49% 33% 30% 32%
Sep–Oct 2011 Newspoll 56% 19% 52% 29% 29% 33%
Jul–Aug 2011 Newspoll 57% 16% 52% 29% 27% 34%
5–10 Apr 2011 Roy Morgan[77] 60% 14% 50.5% 23% 25% 26.5%
3 December 2010 Andrews replaces Brumby Baillieu Brumby Baillieu Brumby
30 Nov–1 Dec 2010 Roy Morgan[77] 48.5% 25.5% 40% 13% 30% 31%
2010 election
23–25 Nov 2010 Newspoll 38% 48% 44% 44% 38% 52%
23–25 Nov 2010 Roy Morgan[77] 39% 43.5% 40% 39% 34% 46.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here


Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Newspaper endorsements[edit]

Dailies   Sundays
Newspaper Endorsement Newspaper Endorsement
The Age Liberal[78] The Sunday Age Labor[79]
The Australian Liberal[80] The Weekend Australian
The Australian Financial Review Liberal[81]
Herald Sun Liberal[82] Sunday Herald Sun Liberal[83]

References[edit]

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