World population estimates

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Estimates of world population for various points in history have been a subject of study for many years. Many authoritative sources exist for historical population estimates (e.g. U.S. Census estimates of historical world population). This article lists many of these estimates. Estimates previous to the year 10,000 BC can be made only from archaeological evidence.

The last point in which homo sapiens hit a dangerous low, coming close to extinction, was at approximately 70,000 BC during the Toba catastrophe. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign estimates human world population (Homo sapiens in Africa) between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding couples.[1][2][3]

Table[edit]

The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC (i.e. -10000 = 10,001 BC, etc.). The table starts counting around the Late Glacial Maximum period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.

Year United States Census Bureau

(2009)[4]

Population Reference Bureau

(1973–2008)[5]

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

(2008)[6]

HYDE

(2006)[7]

Maddison

(2003)[8]

Tanton

(1994)[9]

Biraben

(1980)[10]

McEvedy &

Jones (1978)[11]

Thomlinson

(1975)[12]

Durand

(1974)[13]

Clark

(1967)[14]

−10,000 4,000,000 1,000,000 to 10,000,000
−8000 5,000,000 5,000,000 to 10,000,000
−5000 5,000,000 5,000,000 to 20,000,000
−4000 7,000,000
−3000 14,000,000
−2000 27,000,000
−1000 50,000,000
−500 100,000,000
−400 162,000,000
−200 231,000,000 150,000,000
0 300,000,000 300,000,000 230,820,000 150,000,000 255,000,000 170,000,000 200,000,000 270,000,000 to 330,000,000
14 256,000,000
200 256,000,000 190,000,000
350 254,000,000
400 206,000,000 190,000,000
500 206,000,000 190,000,000
600 206,000,000 200,000,000 237,000,000
700 207,000,000 210,000,000
800 224,000,000 220,000,000 261,000,000
900 226,000,000 240,000,000
1000 310,000,000 267,573,000 254,000,000 265,000,000 275,000,000 to 345,000,000 280,000,000
1100 301,000,000 320,000,000
1200 450,000,000 400,000,000 360,000,000 384,000,000
1250 400,000,000 416,000,000 350,000,000 to 450,000,000
1300 300,000,000 432,000,000 360,000,000 400,000,000
1340 443,000,000 378,000,000
1400 374,000,000 350,000,000
1500 500,000,000 438,428,000 460,000,000 425,000,000 440,000,000 to 540,000,000 427,000,000
1600 556,148,000 579,000,000 545,000,000 498,000,000
1650 500,000,000 545,000,000 500,000,000 516,000,000
1700 640,035,774 603,490,000 600,000,000 679,000,000 610,000,000 600,000,000 641,000,000
1710 662,378,306
1720 679,615,896
1730 689,283,580
1740 769,991,547
1750 795,000,000 791,000,000 824,276,110 770,000,000 720,000,000 700,000,000 735,000,000 to 805,000,000 731,000,000
1760 846,137,329
1770 864,445,832
1780 949,409,344
1790 982,617,842
1800 978,000,000 980,851,296 900,000,000 954,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 890,000,000
1810 1,045,073,963
1820 1,069,841,690 1,041,834,000
1830 1,138,392,564
1840 1,192,729,394
1850 1,265,000,000 1,262,000,000 1,244,327,949 1,241,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,200,000,000
1860 1,270,044,073
1870 1,309,430,136 1,271,915,000
1875 1,325,000,000
1880 1,397,685,022
1890 1,516,025,314
1900 1,656,000,000 1,650,000,000 1,633,848,213 1,563,622,000 1,600,000,000 1,633,000,000 1,625,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,650,000,000 to 1,710,000,000 1,668,000,000
1910 1,750,000,000 1,753,594,443
1913 1,791,091,000
1920 1,860,000,000 1,888,034,127 1,968,000,000
1925 2,000,000,000
1930 2,070,000,000 2,073,363,421 2,145,000,000
1940 2,300,000,000 2,299,541,939 2,340,000,000
1950 2,555,974,605 2,516,000,000 2,529,346,000 2,528,313,293 2,524,324,000 2,400,000,000 2,527,000,000 2,500,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,499,000,000
1955 2,780,923,093 2,763,453,000 2,767,727,535 2,766,471,000
1960 3,041,697,768 3,023,358,000 3,035,624,545 3,038,795,000
1962 3,138,922,062 3,155,862,958 3,132,691,000 3,036,000,000
1965 3,349,287,332 3,331,670,000 3,351,348,699 3,328,882,000
1966 3,419,728,217 3,420,389,193 3,397,631,000 3,288,000,000
1970 3,711,961,664 3,685,777,000 3,696,590,163 3,685,058,000 3,637,000,000 3,600,000,000 3,600,000,000 to 3,700,000,000
1973 3,941,550,996 3,923,325,629 3,916,489,000
1975 4,088,611,586 4,061,317,000 4,073,741,819 4,065,408,000 3,900,000,000 4,000,000,000
1980 4,452,547,522 4,437,609,000 4,442,296,596 4,435,598,000
1985 4,852,051,940 4,846,247,000 4,843,949,085 4,830,813,000 5,000,000,000
1990 5,283,687,429 5,290,452,000 5,279,521,283 5,259,502,000
1995 5,696,676,739 5,760,000,000 5,713,073,000 5,692,354,537 5,677,287,000
1998 5,932,090,951 5,930,407,103 5,914,930,000
1999 6,008,254,795 6,008,326,071 5,997,967,000
2000 6,083,550,220 6,115,367,000 6,085,574,386 6,071,144,000 5,750,000,000
2001 6,159,242,510 6,149,006,000
2002 6,234,361,771 6,215,000,000 6,238,183,321
2005 6,456,443,080 6,477,000,000 6,512,276,000 6,464,751,609
2006 6,530,984,631 6,555,000,000 6,540,285,038
2007 6,606,214,786 6,625,000,000 6,615,854,053
2008 6,681,112,529 6,705,000,000 6,691,483,957
2009 6,755,987,239
2010 6,830,586,985 6,908,688,000 6,842,925,208
2015 7,200,008,584 7,302,186,000 7,219,433,211
2020 7,557,514,266 7,674,833,000 7,577,890,552 8,000,000,000
2025 7,892,758,722 8,000,000,000 8,011,533,000 7,905,241,284
2030 8,202,205,367 8,308,895,000 8,199,106,302
2035 8,487,066,951 8,570,570,000
2040 8,748,743,446 8,801,196,000
2045 8,987,418,540 8,996,344,000
2050 9,202,458,484 9,352,000,000 9,149,984,000

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Stanley H. Ambrose (1998). "Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans". Journal of Human Evolution 34 (6): 623–651. doi:10.1006/jhev.1998.0219. PMID 9650103. 
  2. ^ Ambrose, Stanley H. (2005). "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans". Bradshaw Foundation. Retrieved 2006-04-08. 
  3. ^ Robock, A., C.M. Ammann, L. Oman, D. Shindell, S. Levis, and G. Stenchikov (2009). "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation?". Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (D10): D10107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11410107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD011652. 
  4. ^ Data from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base Estimates updated December 2009. Retrieved on January 21, 2010
  5. ^ Data from Population Reference Bureau.
    (a) Carl Haub, 2008, "2008 World Population Data Sheet".
    (b) Carl Haub, 2007, "2007 World Population Data Sheet".
    2006 estimate: (c) Carl Haub, 2006, "2006 World Population Data Sheet".
    2005 estimate: (d) Carl Haub, 2005, "2005 World Population Data Sheet".
    2002 estimate: (e) Carl Haub, 2002, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 30 (no. 8), pp. 3–4.
    Estimates prior to 2002: (f) Carl Haub, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 23 (no. 2), pp. 5–6.
  6. ^ Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 1950–2050 estimates (only medium variants shown): (a) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.[dead link] Estimates prior to 1950: (b) "The World at Six Billion", 1999.
  7. ^ Data from History Database of the Global Environment. K. Klein Goldewijk and G. van Drecht, "HYDE 3.0: Current and historical population and land cover", in Eds. A. F. Bouwman, T. Kram, and K. Klein Goldewijk, "Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4", Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  8. ^ Angus Maddison, 2003, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Vol. 2, OECD, Paris, ISBN 92-64-10412-7.
  9. ^ John H. Tanton, 1994, "End of the Migration Epoch? Time For a New Paradigm", The Social Contract, Vol. 4 (no 3), pp. 162–173.
  10. ^ Slightly updated data from original paper in French: (a) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13. Original paper in French: (b) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25.
  11. ^ Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, 1978, Atlas of World Population History, Facts on File, New York, ISBN 0-7139-1031-3.
  12. ^ Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control, 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA, ISBN 0-8221-0166-1.
  13. ^ John D. Durand, 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation", University of Pennsylvania, Population Center, Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10.
  14. ^ Colin Clark, 1967, Population Growth and Land Use, St. Martin's Press, New York, ISBN 0-333-01126-0.

Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]