World population estimates

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Estimates of world population for various points in history have been a subject of study for many years. Many authoritative sources exist for historical population estimates (e.g. U.S. Census estimates of historical world population). This article lists many of these estimates. Estimates previous to the year 10,000 BC can be made only from archaeological evidence.

The last point in which Homo sapiens hit a dangerous low, coming close to extinction, was at approximately 70,000 BC during the Toba catastrophe. The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign estimates human world population (Homo sapiens in Africa) between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding couples.[1][2][3]

Later bottlenecks have appeared, with important local effects, but not global to the whole world population. For example, during the Last glacial period, population across Europe decreased and people had to gather in refugia. Nevertheless, population outside Europe was mostly unaffected.[4]

Table[edit]

The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC (i.e. -10000 = 10,001 BC, etc.). The table starts counting around the Late Glacial Maximum period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.

Year United States Census Bureau

(2014)[5]

Population Reference Bureau

(1973–2014)[6]

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

(2013)[7]

HYDE

(2007)[8]

Maddison

(2003)[9]

Tanton

(1994)[10]

Biraben

(1980)[11]

McEvedy &

Jones (1978)[12]

Thomlinson

(1975)[13]

Durand

(1974)[14]

Clark

(1967)[15]

−10000 2,431,214 4,000,000 1,000,000 to 10,000,000
−9000 3,564,408
−8000 5,000,000 5,136,462 5,000,000 to 10,000,000
−7000 7,561,696
−6000 11,461,003
−5000 17,920,172 5,000,000 5,000,000 to 20,000,000
−4000 28,370,430 7,000,000
−3000 44,819,893 14,000,000
−2000 72,108,133 27,000,000
−1000 115,065,666 50,000,000
−500 100,000,000
−400 162,000,000
−200 231,000,000 150,000,000
0 300,000,000 300,000,000 188,239,090 230,820,000 150,000,000 255,000,000 170,000,000 200,000,000 270,000,000 to 330,000,000
14 256,000,000
100 195,062,192
200 202,309,553 256,000,000 190,000,000
300 205,316,554
350 254,000,000
400 208,909,834 206,000,000 190,000,000
500 210,429,837 206,000,000 190,000,000
600 212,642,769 206,000,000 200,000,000 237,000,000
700 225,835,012 207,000,000 210,000,000
800 240,487,640 224,000,000 220,000,000 261,000,000
900 268,747,448 226,000,000 240,000,000
1000 310,000,000 295,040,195 267,573,000 254,000,000 265,000,000 275,000,000 to 345,000,000 280,000,000
1100 352,606,919 301,000,000 320,000,000
1200 450,000,000 393,081,041 400,000,000 360,000,000 384,000,000
1250 400,000,000 416,000,000 350,000,000 to 450,000,000
1300 392,403,532 300,000,000 432,000,000 360,000,000 400,000,000
1340 443,000,000 378,000,000
1400 389,774,828 374,000,000 350,000,000
1500 500,000,000 461,367,658 438,428,000 460,000,000 425,000,000 440,000,000 to 540,000,000 427,000,000
1600 553,956,117 556,148,000 579,000,000 545,000,000 498,000,000
1650 500,000,000 545,000,000 500,000,000 516,000,000
1700 603,167,544 603,490,000 600,000,000 679,000,000 610,000,000 600,000,000 641,000,000
1750 795,000,000 791,000,000 813,664,160 770,000,000 720,000,000 700,000,000 735,000,000 to 805,000,000 731,000,000
1800 978,000,000 989,818,305 900,000,000 954,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 890,000,000
1820 1,041,834,000
1850 1,265,000,000 1,262,000,000 1,262,682,074 1,241,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,200,000,000
1870 1,271,915,000
1875 1,325,000,000
1900 1,656,000,000 1,650,000,000 1,654,430,979 1,563,622,000 1,600,000,000 1,633,000,000 1,625,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,650,000,000 to 1,710,000,000 1,668,000,000
1910 1,750,000,000 1,777,175,381
1913 1,791,091,000
1920 1,860,000,000 1,912,110,935 1,968,000,000
1925 2,000,000,000
1930 2,070,000,000 2,091,893,626 2,145,000,000
1940 2,300,000,000 2,307,348,107 2,340,000,000
1950 2,557,628,654 2,516,000,000 2,525,778,669 2,544,876,952 2,524,324,000 2,400,000,000 2,527,000,000 2,500,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,499,000,000
1951 2,594,919,657 2,572,850,917
1952 2,636,732,631 2,619,292,068
1953 2,681,994,386 2,665,865,392
1954 2,730,149,884 2,713,172,027
1955 2,782,001,154 2,761,650,981 2,766,471,000
1956 2,835,182,293 2,811,572,031
1957 2,891,211,793 2,863,042,795
1958 2,947,979,287 2,916,030,167
1959 3,000,544,325 2,970,395,814
1960 3,042,828,380 3,026,002,942 3,042,794,825 3,038,795,000
1961 3,083,799,968 3,082,830,266
1962 3,139,919,051 3,141,071,531 3,132,691,000 3,036,000,000
1963 3,209,631,895 3,201,178,277
1964 3,280,981,862 3,263,738,832
1965 3,350,186,115 3,329,122,479 3,328,882,000
1966 3,420,416,498 3,397,475,247 3,397,631,000 3,288,000,000
1967 3,490,051,163 3,468,521,724
1968 3,562,007,503 3,541,674,891
1969 3,636,825,800 3,616,108,749
1970 3,712,338,708 3,691,172,616 3,709,837,147 3,685,058,000 3,637,000,000 3,600,000,000 3,600,000,000 to 3,700,000,000
1971 3,789,941,225 3,766,754,345
1972 3,866,158,404 3,842,873,611
1973 3,941,664,971 3,919,182,332 3,923,325,629 3,916,489,000
1974 4,016,159,586 3,995,304,922
1975 4,088,621,062 4,071,020,434 4,065,408,000 3,900,000,000 4,000,000,000
1976 4,159,718,199 4,146,135,850
1977 4,231,619,236 4,220,816,737
1978 4,303,647,736 4,295,664,825
1979 4,378,565,589 4,371,527,871
1980 4,450,929,761 4,449,048,798 4,460,709,975 4,435,598,000
1981 4,533,928,518 4,528,234,634
1982 4,614,015,853 4,608,962,418
1983 4,695,112,999 4,691,559,840
1984 4,773,874,962 4,776,392,828
1985 4,855,692,131 4,863,601,517 4,830,813,000 5,000,000,000
1986 4,939,715,093 4,953,376,710
1987 5,026,262,667 5,045,315,871
1988 5,113,554,741 5,138,214,688
1989 5,200,376,354 5,230,452,409
1990 5,287,869,228 5,320,816,667 5,307,597,268 5,259,502,000
1991 5,370,833,520 5,408,908,724
1992 5,455,716,183 5,494,899,570
1993 5,538,201,967 5,578,865,109
1994 5,618,942,438 5,661,086,346
1995 5,699,768,392 5,760,000,000 5,741,822,412 5,677,287,000
1996 5,780,312,511 5,821,016,750
1997 5,859,124,817 5,840,000,000 5,898,688,337
1998 5,936,610,692 5,975,303,657 5,914,930,000
1999 6,013,679,354 6,051,478,010 5,997,967,000
2000 6,090,319,399 6,067,000,000 6,127,700,428 6,144,834,307 6,071,144,000 5,750,000,000
2001 6,167,064,399 6,204,147,026 6,149,006,000
2002 6,243,867,851 6,215,000,000 6,280,853,817
2003 6,320,371,175 6,314,000,000 6,357,991,749
2004 6,397,322,922 6,396,000,000 6,435,705,595
2005 6,474,229,144 6,477,000,000 6,514,094,605
2006 6,552,104,498 6,555,000,000 6,593,227,977
2007 6,630,764,007 6,625,000,000 6,673,105,937
2008 6,709,620,605 6,705,000,000 6,753,649,228
2009 6,788,203,578 6,809,972,000 6,834,721,933
2010 6,866,054,281 6,892,319,000 6,916,183,482
2011 6,943,437,438 6,986,951,000 6,997,998,760
2012 7,020,760,225 7,057,075,000 7,080,072,417
2013 7,098,495,231 7,136,796,000 7,162,119,434
2014 7,176,023,055 7,238,184,000 7,243,784,121
2015 7,253,260,112 7,324,782,225
2016 7,330,119,639 7,404,976,783
2017 7,406,521,216 7,484,325,476
2018 7,482,239,028 7,562,760,049
2019 7,557,130,074 7,640,244,883
2020 7,631,071,690 7,716,749,042 8,000,000,000
2021 7,704,115,688 7,792,209,448
2022 7,776,293,343 7,866,579,808
2023 7,847,482,286 7,939,876,856
2024 7,917,600,174 8,012,143,175
2025 7,986,584,268 8,000,000,000 8,083,412,759
2026 8,054,512,457 8,153,677,369
2027 8,121,441,056 8,222,926,554
2028 8,187,308,524 8,291,192,823
2029 8,252,088,787 8,358,519,176
2030 8,315,758,309 8,444,000,000 8,424,937,474
2031 8,378,365,217 8,490,455,587
2032 8,439,982,435 8,555,067,634
2033 8,500,602,336 8,618,773,635
2034 8,560,208,295 8,681,569,042
2035 8,618,767,751 8,743,446,952
2036 8,676,328,419 8,804,405,816
2037 8,732,942,484 8,864,436,768
2038 8,788,587,101 8,923,514,713
2039 8,843,232,673 8,981,607,338
2040 8,896,844,579 9,038,687,151
2041 8,949,450,376 9,094,743,549
2042 9,001,084,601 9,149,768,513
2043 9,051,710,688 9,203,740,560
2044 9,101,286,573 9,256,636,273
2045 9,149,777,822 9,308,438,178
2046 9,197,214,283 9,359,139,840
2047 9,243,623,755 9,408,741,189
2048 9,288,977,019 9,457,240,781
2049 9,333,247,705 9,504,640,288
2050 9,376,416,975 9,683,000,000 9,550,944,891
2051 9,596,160,310
2052 9,640,298,273
2053 9,683,379,446
2054 9,725,429,894
2055 9,766,475,107
2056 9,806,530,407
2057 9,845,614,720
2058 9,883,762,213
2059 9,921,012,280
2060 9,957,398,588
2061 9,992,942,091
2062 10,027,657,203
2063 10,061,562,395
2064 10,094,674,166
2065 10,127,006,921
2066 10,158,578,935
2067 10,189,401,603
2068 10,219,473,319
2069 10,248,786,569
2070 10,277,339,229
2071 10,305,145,554
2072 10,332,223,181
2073 10,358,578,322
2074 10,384,216,409
2075 10,409,149,043
2076 10,433,384,559
2077 10,456,948,830
2078 10,479,892,851
2079 10,502,280,113
2080 10,524,161,005
2081 10,545,552,880
2082 10,566,460,628
2083 10,586,904,845
2084 10,606,903,863
2085 10,626,467,422
2086 10,645,602,142
2087 10,664,297,922
2088 10,682,524,227
2089 10,700,237,846
2090 10,717,401,021
2091 10,733,987,343
2092 10,749,979,712
2093 10,765,365,331
2094 10,780,129,870
2095 10,794,252,256
2096 10,807,702,741
2097 10,820,441,927
2098 10,832,420,339
2099 10,843,578,834
2100 10,853,848,570

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Stanley H. Ambrose (1998). "Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans". Journal of Human Evolution 34 (6): 623–651. doi:10.1006/jhev.1998.0219. PMID 9650103. 
  2. ^ Ambrose, Stanley H. (2005). "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans". Bradshaw Foundation. Retrieved 2006-04-08. 
  3. ^ Robock, A., C.M. Ammann, L. Oman, D. Shindell, S. Levis, and G. Stenchikov (2009). "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation?". Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (D10): D10107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11410107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD011652. 
  4. ^ Pala et al. 2012 Mitochondrial DNA signals of late glacial recolonization of Europe from near eastern refugia. http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/22560092/reload=0;jsessionid=Ex1l76DwTiCwb3huDcM9.6
  5. ^ Data from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base Retrieved on June 10, 2014
  6. ^ Data from Population Reference Bureau.
    2014 estimate: (a) Carl Haub, 2014, "2014 World Population Data Sheet".
    2013 estimate: (b) Carl Haub, 2013, "2013 World Population Data Sheet".
    2012 estimate: (c) Carl Haub, 2012, "2012 World Population Data Sheet".
    2011 estimate: (d) Carl Haub, 2011, "2011 World Population Data Sheet".
    2010 estimate: (e) Carl Haub, 2010, "2010 World Population Data Sheet".
    2009 estimate: (f) Carl Haub, 2009, "2009 World Population Data Sheet".
    2008 estimate: (g) Carl Haub, 2008, "2008 World Population Data Sheet".
    2007 estimate: (h) Carl Haub, 2007, "2007 World Population Data Sheet".
    2006 estimate: (i) Carl Haub, 2006, "2006 World Population Data Sheet".
    2005 estimate: (j) Carl Haub, 2005, "2005 World Population Data Sheet".
    2004 estimate: (k) Carl Haub, 2004, "2004 World Population Data Sheet".
    2003 estimate: (l) Carl Haub, 2003, "2003 World Population Data Sheet".
    2002 estimate: (m) Carl Haub, 2002, "2002 World Population Data Sheet".
    2000 estimate: (n) 2000, "9 Billion World Population by 2050".
    1997 estimate: (o) 1997, "Studying Populations".
    Estimates for 1995 and prior: (p) Carl Haub, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 23 (no. 2), pp. 5–6.
  7. ^ Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
    1950–2100 estimates (only medium variants shown): (a) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.[dead link]
    Estimates prior to 1950: (b) "The World at Six Billion", 1999.
    Estimates from 1950 to 2100: (c) "Population of the entire world, yearly, 1950 - 2100", 2013.
  8. ^ Data from History Database of the Global Environment. K. Klein Goldewijk and G. van Drecht, "HYDE 3.1: Current and historical population and land cover", in Eds. A. F. Bouwman, T. Kram, and K. Klein Goldewijk, "Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4", Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  9. ^ Angus Maddison, 2003, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Vol. 2, OECD, Paris, ISBN 92-64-10412-7.
  10. ^ John H. Tanton, 1994, "End of the Migration Epoch? Time For a New Paradigm", The Social Contract, Vol. 4 (no 3), pp. 162–173.
  11. ^ Slightly updated data from original paper in French: (a) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13. Original paper in French: (b) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25.
  12. ^ Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, 1978, Atlas of World Population History, Facts on File, New York, ISBN 0-7139-1031-3.
  13. ^ Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control, 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA, ISBN 0-8221-0166-1.
  14. ^ John D. Durand, 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation", University of Pennsylvania, Population Center, Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10.
  15. ^ Colin Clark, 1967, Population Growth and Land Use, St. Martin's Press, New York, ISBN 0-333-01126-0.

Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]