World population estimates
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Estimates of world population for various points in history have been a subject of study for many years. Many authoritative sources exist for historical population estimates (e.g. U.S. Census estimates of historical world population). This article lists many of these estimates. Estimates previous to the year 10,000 BC can be made only from archaeological evidence.
The last point in which Homo sapiens sapiens hit a dangerous low, coming close to extinction, was at approximately 70,000 BC during the Toba catastrophe. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign estimates human world population (Homo sapiens in Africa) between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding couples.[1][2][3]
The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC (i.e. -10000 = 10,001 BC, etc.). The table starts counting around the Late Glacial Maximum period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.
| Year | United States Census Bureau
(2009)[4] |
Population Reference Bureau
(1973–2008)[5] |
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
(2008)[6] |
HYDE
(2006)[7] |
Maddison
(2003)[8] |
Tanton
(1994)[9] |
Biraben
(1980)[10] |
McEvedy &
Jones (1978)[11] |
Thomlinson
(1975)[12] |
Durand
(1974)[13] |
Clark
(1967)[14] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10000 | 4,000,000 | 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 | |||||||||
| −8000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 to 10,000,000 | |||||||||
| −5000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 to 20,000,000 | |||||||||
| −4000 | 7,000,000 | ||||||||||
| −3000 | 14,000,000 | ||||||||||
| −2000 | 27,000,000 | ||||||||||
| −1000 | 50,000,000 | ||||||||||
| −500 | 100,000,000 | ||||||||||
| −400 | 162,000,000 | ||||||||||
| −200 | 231,000,000 | 150,000,000 | |||||||||
| 0 | 300,000,000 | 300,000,000 | 230,820,000 | 150,000,000 | 255,000,000 | 170,000,000 | 200,000,000 | 270,000,000 to 330,000,000 | |||
| 14 | 256,000,000 | ||||||||||
| 200 | 256,000,000 | 190,000,000 | |||||||||
| 350 | 254,000,000 | ||||||||||
| 400 | 206,000,000 | 190,000,000 | |||||||||
| 500 | 206,000,000 | 190,000,000 | |||||||||
| 600 | 206,000,000 | 200,000,000 | 237,000,000 | ||||||||
| 700 | 207,000,000 | 210,000,000 | |||||||||
| 800 | 224,000,000 | 220,000,000 | 261,000,000 | ||||||||
| 900 | 226,000,000 | 240,000,000 | |||||||||
| 1000 | 310,000,000 | 267,573,000 | 254,000,000 | 265,000,000 | 275,000,000 to 345,000,000 | 280,000,000 | |||||
| 1100 | 301,000,000 | 320,000,000 | |||||||||
| 1200 | 450,000,000 | 400,000,000 | 360,000,000 | 384,000,000 | |||||||
| 1250 | 400,000,000 | 416,000,000 | 350,000,000 to 450,000,000 | ||||||||
| 1300 | 300,000,000 | 432,000,000 | 360,000,000 | 400,000,000 | |||||||
| 1340 | 443,000,000 | 378,000,000 | |||||||||
| 1400 | 374,000,000 | 350,000,000 | |||||||||
| 1500 | 500,000,000 | 438,428,000 | 460,000,000 | 425,000,000 | 440,000,000 to 540,000,000 | 427,000,000 | |||||
| 1600 | 556,148,000 | 579,000,000 | 545,000,000 | 498,000,000 | |||||||
| 1650 | 500,000,000 | 545,000,000 | 500,000,000 | 516,000,000 | |||||||
| 1700 | 640,035,774 | 603,490,000 | 600,000,000 | 679,000,000 | 610,000,000 | 600,000,000 | 641,000,000 | ||||
| 1710 | 662,378,306 | ||||||||||
| 1720 | 679,615,896 | ||||||||||
| 1730 | 689,283,580 | ||||||||||
| 1740 | 769,991,547 | ||||||||||
| 1750 | 795,000,000 | 791,000,000 | 824,276,110 | 770,000,000 | 720,000,000 | 700,000,000 | 735,000,000 to 805,000,000 | 731,000,000 | |||
| 1760 | 846,137,329 | ||||||||||
| 1770 | 864,445,832 | ||||||||||
| 1780 | 949,409,344 | ||||||||||
| 1790 | 982,617,842 | ||||||||||
| 1800 | 978,000,000 | 980,851,296 | 900,000,000 | 954,000,000 | 900,000,000 | 900,000,000 | 890,000,000 | ||||
| 1810 | 1,045,073,963 | ||||||||||
| 1820 | 1,069,841,690 | 1,041,834,000 | |||||||||
| 1830 | 1,138,392,564 | ||||||||||
| 1840 | 1,192,729,394 | ||||||||||
| 1850 | 1,265,000,000 | 1,262,000,000 | 1,244,327,949 | 1,241,000,000 | 1,200,000,000 | 1,200,000,000 | |||||
| 1860 | 1,270,044,073 | ||||||||||
| 1870 | 1,309,430,136 | 1,271,915,000 | |||||||||
| 1875 | 1,325,000,000 | ||||||||||
| 1880 | 1,397,685,022 | ||||||||||
| 1890 | 1,516,025,314 | ||||||||||
| 1900 | 1,656,000,000 | 1,650,000,000 | 1,633,848,213 | 1,563,622,000 | 1,600,000,000 | 1,633,000,000 | 1,625,000,000 | 1,600,000,000 | 1,650,000,000 to 1,710,000,000 | 1,668,000,000 | |
| 1910 | 1,750,000,000 | 1,753,594,443 | |||||||||
| 1913 | 1,791,091,000 | ||||||||||
| 1920 | 1,860,000,000 | 1,888,034,127 | 1,968,000,000 | ||||||||
| 1925 | 2,000,000,000 | ||||||||||
| 1930 | 2,070,000,000 | 2,073,363,421 | 2,145,000,000 | ||||||||
| 1940 | 2,300,000,000 | 2,299,541,939 | 2,340,000,000 | ||||||||
| 1950 | 2,555,974,605 | 2,516,000,000 | 2,529,346,000 | 2,528,313,293 | 2,524,324,000 | 2,400,000,000 | 2,527,000,000 | 2,500,000,000 | 2,400,000,000 | 2,499,000,000 | |
| 1955 | 2,780,923,093 | 2,763,453,000 | 2,767,727,535 | 2,766,471,000 | |||||||
| 1960 | 3,041,697,768 | 3,023,358,000 | 3,035,624,545 | 3,038,795,000 | |||||||
| 1962 | 3,138,922,062 | 3,155,862,958 | 3,132,691,000 | 3,036,000,000 | |||||||
| 1965 | 3,349,287,332 | 3,331,670,000 | 3,351,348,699 | 3,328,882,000 | |||||||
| 1966 | 3,419,728,217 | 3,420,389,193 | 3,397,631,000 | 3,288,000,000 | |||||||
| 1970 | 3,711,961,664 | 3,685,777,000 | 3,696,590,163 | 3,685,058,000 | 3,637,000,000 | 3,600,000,000 | 3,600,000,000 to 3,700,000,000 | ||||
| 1973 | 3,941,550,996 | 3,923,325,629 | 3,916,489,000 | ||||||||
| 1975 | 4,088,611,586 | 4,061,317,000 | 4,073,741,819 | 4,065,408,000 | 3,900,000,000 | 4,000,000,000 | |||||
| 1980 | 4,452,547,522 | 4,437,609,000 | 4,442,296,596 | 4,435,598,000 | |||||||
| 1985 | 4,852,051,940 | 4,846,247,000 | 4,843,949,085 | 4,830,813,000 | 5,000,000,000 | ||||||
| 1990 | 5,283,687,429 | 5,290,452,000 | 5,279,521,283 | 5,259,502,000 | |||||||
| 1995 | 5,696,676,739 | 5,760,000,000 | 5,713,073,000 | 5,692,354,537 | 5,677,287,000 | ||||||
| 1998 | 5,932,090,951 | 5,930,407,103 | 5,914,930,000 | ||||||||
| 1999 | 6,008,254,795 | 6,008,326,071 | 5,997,967,000 | ||||||||
| 2000 | 6,083,550,220 | 6,115,367,000 | 6,085,574,386 | 6,071,144,000 | 5,750,000,000 | ||||||
| 2001 | 6,159,242,510 | 6,149,006,000 | |||||||||
| 2002 | 6,234,361,771 | 6,215,000,000 | 6,238,183,321 | ||||||||
| 2005 | 6,456,443,080 | 6,477,000,000 | 6,512,276,000 | 6,464,751,609 | |||||||
| 2006 | 6,530,984,631 | 6,555,000,000 | 6,540,285,038 | ||||||||
| 2007 | 6,606,214,786 | 6,625,000,000 | 6,615,854,053 | ||||||||
| 2008 | 6,681,112,529 | 6,705,000,000 | 6,691,483,957 | ||||||||
| 2009 | 6,755,987,239 | ||||||||||
| 2010 | 6,830,586,985 | 6,908,688,000 | 6,842,925,208 | ||||||||
| 2015 | 7,200,008,584 | 7,302,186,000 | 7,219,433,211 | ||||||||
| 2020 | 7,557,514,266 | 7,674,833,000 | 7,577,890,552 | 8,000,000,000 | |||||||
| 2025 | 7,892,758,722 | 8,000,000,000 | 8,011,533,000 | 7,905,241,284 | |||||||
| 2030 | 8,202,205,367 | 8,308,895,000 | 8,199,106,302 | ||||||||
| 2035 | 8,487,066,951 | 8,570,570,000 | |||||||||
| 2040 | 8,748,743,446 | 8,801,196,000 | |||||||||
| 2045 | 8,987,418,540 | 8,996,344,000 | |||||||||
| 2050 | 9,202,458,484 | 9,352,000,000 | 9,149,984,000 |
See also [edit]
References [edit]
- ^ Stanley H. Ambrose (1998). "Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans". Journal of Human Evolution 34 (6): 623–651. doi:10.1006/jhev.1998.0219. PMID 9650103.
- ^ Ambrose, Stanley H. (2005). "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans". Bradshaw Foundation. Retrieved 2006-04-08.
- ^ Robock, A., C.M. Ammann, L. Oman, D. Shindell, S. Levis, and G. Stenchikov (2009). "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation?". Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (D10): D10107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11410107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD011652.
- ^ Data from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base Estimates updated December 2009. Retrieved on January 21, 2010
- ^ Data from Population Reference Bureau. (a) Carl Haub, 2008, "2008 World Population Data Sheet." (b) Carl Haub, 2007, "2007 World Population Data Sheet." 2006 estimate: (c) Carl Haub, 2006, "2006 World Population Data Sheet." 2005 estimate: (d) Carl Haub, 2005, "2005 World Population Data Sheet." 2002 estimate: (e) Carl Haub, 2002, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 30 (no. 8), pp. 3–4. Estimates prior to 2002: (f) Carl Haub, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 23 (no. 2), pp. 5–6.
- ^ Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 1950–2050 estimates (only medium variants shown): (a) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. Estimates prior to 1950: (b) "The World at Six Billion," 1999.
- ^ Data from History Database of the Global Environment. K. Klein Goldewijk and G. van Drecht, "HYDE 3.0: Current and historical population and land cover," in Eds. A. F. Bouwman, T. Kram, and K. Klein Goldewijk, "Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4," Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
- ^ Angus Maddison, 2003, "The World Economy: Historical Statistics", Vol. 2, OECD, Paris, ISBN 92-64-10412-7.
- ^ John H. Tanton, 1994, "End of the Migration Epoch? Time For a New Paradigm," The Social Contract, Vol. 4 (no 3), pp. 162–173.
- ^ Slightly updated data from original paper in French: (a) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13. Original paper in French: (b) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25.
- ^ Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, 1978, "Atlas of World Population History," Facts on File, New York, ISBN 0-7139-1031-3.
- ^ Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, "Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control," 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA, ISBN 0-8221-0166-1.
- ^ John D. Durand, 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation," University of Pennsylvania, Population Center, Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10.
- ^ Colin Clark, 1967, "Population Growth and Land Use," St. Martin's Press, New York, ISBN 0-333-01126-0.
External links [edit]
- Historical Estimates of World Population- US Census Bureau [1]
