Zero growth

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Zero growth is a theory that all economic activities and policies should be oriented towards achieving a state of equilibrium, a steady state economy.

The theory asserts that the continuous growth model is inherently unstable resulting in a "boom/bust" cycle, and that continuous growth in the context of finite resources is unlikely to support current levels of prosperity indefinitely.

Proponents of this theory also explicitly challenge the popular equation of economic growth with progress and posit that sustainability has inherent value.

The "Zero Growth Creed" states, in part:

"We believe mankind has attained the maximum utilization of Earth's treasures which he can prudently attain without harm to his well-being, both material and spiritual; indeed, without threatening the very existence of his kind and of all his life-sharing companions upon this fruitful orb. Humble as are man's works before the awesome majesty of Earth's natural forces, we have in our power the capability to destroy the fragile balance of Nature, to upset the mechanisms - so unlikely and so wondrous, so far beyond our power to comprehend - by which our earthly home has evolved and will evolve."[1]


When a quantity such as the rate r\left(t\right) of consumption of a resource grows a fixed percent per year, the growth is exponential:

r\left(t\right) = r_0 \exp \left(kt\right) (1)

where r0 is the current rate of consumption at t = 0 , exp is the base of natural logarithms, k is the fractional growth per year, and t is the time in years.

The growing quantity will increase to twice its initial size in the doubling time T2. To find T2 we solve for t such that r(t) has doubled

r \left(T_2\right) = r_0 \exp(kT_2) = 2r_0 exp(kT2) = 2

Taking the log of both sides:

kT2 = ln(2)

T_2  =  \frac{\ln \left( 2 \right)}{k}  \approx  \frac{70}{P} (2)

Where P, the percent growth per year, is 100k. The total consumption of a resource between the present (t = 0) and a future time T is:

C  =  \int_{0}^{T}r(t)dt

(3)The consumption in a steady period of growth is: C  =  r_0\int_{0}^{T} \exp \left(kt\right)dt = \frac{r_0}{k} \left( \exp\left(kT \right) - 1\right)

(4)If the known size of the resource is R tons, then we can determine the exponential expiration time (EET) by finding the time Te at which the total consumption C is equal to R: R  =  \frac{r_0}{k} \left( \exp\left(kT \right) - 1\right)

(5)We may solve this for the exponential expiration time Te where: EET  =  T_e  =  \frac{1}{k} \ln \left( \frac{k R}{r_0} + 1 \right)

(6)This equation is valid for all positive values of k and for those negative values of k for which the argument of the logarithm is positive.[2]

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