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| rowspan=2 | [http://www1.wne.edu/assets/112/Polling_-_Mass_Senate_%28Oct_2011%29_TABLES.pdf Western N.E. College]
| rowspan=2 nowrap | <small>Sept. 29–<br/>Oct. 5, 2011</small>
| rowspan=2 | <small>475</small>
| rowspan=2 | <small>±<br/> 4.5%</small>
| <!-- MC --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- MaCo --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- TC --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- MD --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- JK --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- VK --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- AK --> 35%
| <!-- SL --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- RM --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- EM --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- BM --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
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| <!-- DP --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- HR --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- EW -->
| <!-- SW --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- SB --> {{party shading/Republican}} | '''52%'''
| <!-- Other --> rowspan=2 {{not polled}}<!-- Not polled --> |
| <!-- Und --> 12%
|-
| <!-- AK -->
| <!-- EW --> 42%
| <!-- SB --> {{party shading/Republican}} | '''47%'''
| <!-- Und --> 10%


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Revision as of 18:43, 8 October 2011

Elections in
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The 2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts will take place on November 6, 2012 concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate, House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown is running for re-election to a first full term.

Background

Democratic U.S. Senator Edward M. Kennedy was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2006. In May 2008, Kennedy was diagnosed with a malignant glioma, a form of brain cancer. This led to widespread speculation that he would retire before the 2012 election but[1] Kennedy died in August 2009. Paul Kirk was appointed to replace him until a special election could be held, and he began serving on September 24, 2009.[2]

On January 19, 2010, a special election was held, and Republican State Senator Scott Brown defeated Democratic State Attorney General Martha Coakley.[3] Brown began serving the remainder of the term on February 4, 2010.[4]

In September 2011, Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Democrat Elizabeth Warren with a 2-point lead over Brown, the first poll to show a Democrat leading Brown since the early days of the special election.[5] PPP is a Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm; it had previously been the first pollster in the 2010 special election to find Brown ahead of Martha Coakley.[6] Brown was reportedly very concerned about the result; other Republicans downplayed it as the work of "a Democrat polling firm funded in part by SEIU and which donates money to national Democrats". [7] PPP's results have not been statistically biased towards either party in the past.[8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Brown 		"More conservative
challenger" 		Other Undecided
Public Policy
Polling 		Sept. 16-
18, 2011 		255 ± 6.1% 70% 21% — 9%

Democratic primary

The primary election is September 18, 2012,[11] about seven weeks before the general election. Former candidate Bob Massie had proposed moving the primary to an earlier date.[12]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Potential

Declined

Polling

Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Conroy 		Marisa
DeFranco 		Alan
Khazei 		Bob
Massie 		Herb
Robinson 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Setti
Warren 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Sep. 16–18, 2011 461 ± 4.6% 7% 2% 9% 2% 1% 55% 1% — 22%
UMass Lowell Sep. 22–28, 2011 1005 ± 3.8% 5% 4% 3% 3% 1% 36% 3% 1% 32%

General election

Polling

Bolded shading indicated largest share.

Poll
source 		↑ Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Democrats Republicans Other Undecided
Capuano Coakley Conroy DeFranco J. Kennedy V. Kennedy Khazei Lynch Maddow Markey Massie Murray Patrick Robinson E. Warren S. Warren Brown
Public Policy
Polling 		Nov. 29 –
Dec. 1, 2010 		500 ±
4.4% 		36% 52% 12%
41% 48% 11%
30% 49% 20%
39% 49% 13%
42% 49% 9%
Western
N.E.
College 		Mar. 6 –
10, 2011 		472 ±
4.5% 		38% 51% 10%
34% 51% 14%
7News/
Suffolk
University 		Apr. 3 –
5, 2011 		500 ±
4.4% 		26% 52% 1% 19%
40% 45% 0% 13%
30% 52% 0% 16%
26% 53% 0% 19%
23% 51% 1% 22%
37% 52% 0% 11%
9% 52% 3% 32%
Public Policy
Polling 		Jun. 2 –
5, 2011 		957 ±
3.2% 		38% 48% 14%
40% 49% 10%
31% 50% 19%
29% 49% 21%
37% 47% 16%
25% 48% 27%
32% 47% 21%
23% 48% 29%
WBUR
MassInc 		Aug. 30 –
Sep. 1, 2011 		500 ±
4.4% 		30% 45% 2% 21%
29% 45% 3% 22%
35% 44% 2% 18%
28% 46% 3% 23%
Public Policy
Polling 		Sept. 16–
18, 2011 		957 ±
3.2% 		33% 48% 18%
31% 49% 21%
46% 44% 10%
32% 47% 21%
UMass Lowell Sept. 22–
28, 2011 		1005 ±
3.8% 		40% 41% 4% 12%
25% 40% 5% 17%
22% 48% 4% 16%
45% 37% 4% 12%
28% 40% 6% 18%
27% 43% 5% 19%
43% 36% 5% 13%
18% 51% 5% 17%
38% 41% 3% 14%
28% 43% 6% 16%
Western N.E. College Sept. 29–
Oct. 5, 2011 		475 ±
4.5% 		35% 52% 12%
42% 47% 10%
Poll
source 		↑ Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Capuano Coakley Conroy DeFranco J. Kennedy V. Kennedy Khazei Lynch Maddow Markey Massie Murray Patrick Robinson E. Warren S. Warren Brown Other Undecided
Democrats Republicans

See also

References

  1. ^ Klein, Edward M. (June 2009). "The Lion and the Legacy". Vanity Fair. Retrieved January 31, 2010. [dead link]
  2. ^ Kleefeld, Eric (September 24, 2009). "Patrick Officially Appoints Kirk As Interim Senator". Talking Points Memo. Retrieved January 21, 2011.
  3. ^ Kane, Paul; Vick, Karl (January 20, 2010). "Republican Brown beats Coakley in special Senate election in Massachusetts". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 21, 2011.
  4. ^ "Scott Brown sworn in as new U.S. senator from Massachusetts". CNN. February 4, 2010. Retrieved January 21, 2011.
  5. ^ "Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown by two points" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 21 September 2011.
  6. ^ Taylor, Jessica (January 9, 2010). "Poll: Scott Brown ahead of Martha Coakley by 1 point". Politico. Retrieved September 21, 2011.
  7. ^ McMorris-Santoro, Evan. "TPM Tipster: Scott Brown Feeling The Heat Over Warren's Polling Bump". Talking Points Memo. Retrieved September 21, 2011.
  8. ^ 2011: [1] 2010: [2] 2008:[3]
  9. ^ Fitzgerald, Jay (January 15, 2011). "'I've ALWAYS BEEN THE UNDERDOG'". Boston Herald. Retrieved February 22, 2011.
  10. ^ "Scott Brown: No White House bid planned for 2012". CBS News. February 21, 2011. Retrieved February 22, 2011.
  11. ^ "2012 Massachusetts State Primary and State election Schedule" (PDF). Office of the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth. Retrieved May 11, 2011.
  12. ^ Massie, Bob (May 10, 2011). "Let's Take the Three Part Pledge". BlueMassGroup.com. Retrieved May 11, 2011.
  13. ^ Murphy, Matt (June 2, 2011). "Wayland Rep. Tom Conroy enters Senate race". The Metrowest Daily News.
  14. ^ Bernstein, David (March 23, 2011). "Candidate For US Senate: Marisa DeFranco". The Boston Phoenix. Retrieved May 3, 2011.
  15. ^ Keiper, Lauren; Norton, Jerry (April 26, 2011). "Khazei to seek Massachusetts Senate seat". Reuters. Retrieved 26 April 2011.
  16. ^ "Online Guide to Massachusetts Politics". Politics1. Retrieved September 21, 2011.
  17. ^ Reibman, Greg (June 3, 2011). "Newton now has two residents running for U.S. Senate". GateHouse Media New England. Retrieved June 8,2011. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  18. ^ Shear, Michael D. (September 14, 2011). "Elizabeth Warren Posts Announcement Video for Senate Run". The New York Times. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
  19. ^ Loth, Renée (January 16, 2011). "The timely return of Bob Massie". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 19, 2011.
  20. ^ LeBlanc, Steve (October 7, 2011). "Bob Massie dropping out of 2012 Mass. Democratic Senate campaign". Boston Globe. Retrieved October 7, 2011.
  21. ^ Johnson, Glen (May 9, 2011). "Newton Mayor Warren announces US Senate candidacy". Boston Globe. Retrieved May 9, 2011.
  22. ^ "Full text of Setti Warren's speech announcing he will quit the race for US Senate". Boston Globe. September 29, 2011. Retrieved September 29, 2011.
  23. ^ a b Levenson, Michael (July 28, 2011). "Patrick: More Dems may challenge GOP's Brown". Boston Globe. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  24. ^ Chabot, Hillary (July 28, 2011). "Hub business honcho won't rule out run vs. Scott Brown". Boston Herald. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  25. ^ Johnson, Glen (March 30, 2011). "Former aide may seek Edward Kennedy's onetime Senate seat". Boston Globe. Boston.com. Retrieved May 4, 2011.
  26. ^ McGrory, Brian (April 13, 2011). "Brown vs. … hmmm". Boston Globe. Retrieved 4 May 2011.
  27. ^ Miller, Joshua (September 2, 2011). "Mike Capuano Won't Challenge Scott Brown, Seeking Re-Election". Roll Call. Retrieved September 2, 2011.
  28. ^ Johnson, Glen (April 5, 2011). "Salem Mayor Driscoll skipping 2012 Senate race". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 5, 2011.
  29. ^ O'Brien, Michael (February 3, 2011). "Barney Frank won't challenge Sen. Scott Brown in 2012". The Hill. Retrieved February 3, 2011.
  30. ^ Ballou, Brian R. (March 8, 2011). "Joseph P. Kennedy II reiterates he won't challenge Sen. Brown". The Boston Globe. Retrieved March 8, 2011.
  31. ^ Milligan, Susan (August 15, 2010). "After Teddy". The Boston Globe. Retrieved August 15, 2010.
  32. ^ Lehigh, Scott (January 11, 2011). "A word with Kennedy". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 11, 2011.
  33. ^ O'Sullivan, Jim (September 23, 2011). "Lynch Won't Make Senate Bid". National Journal. Retrieved September 24, 2011.
  34. ^ Blake, Aaron (March 26, 2010). "Maddow uses Globe ad to deny Senate run". The Hill. Retrieved March 26, 2010.
  35. ^ Chabot, Hillary (November 9, 2010). "Eager Dems put bull's-eye on Scott Brown". Boston Herald. Retrieved November 9, 2010.
  36. ^ Battenfeld, Joe (January 9, 2011). "Recovering Mayor Menino plans to stand and deliver talk". Boston Herald. Retrieved January 10, 2011.
  37. ^ Cheney, Kyle (December 2, 2010). "Patrick sounding out Brown rivals, eyes new legislative 'allegiances'". GateHouse News Service. Retrieved December 2, 2010.
  38. ^ Chabot, Hillary (April 21, 2011). "Patrick rules out 2012 run vs. Brown". Boston Herald. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
  39. ^ "Robert Pozen says not running for Senate – but perhaps could be convinced". Reuters. March 3, 2011. Retrieved 3 September 2011.
  40. ^ L'Ecuyer, Jonathan (February 1, 2011). "Rockport High students quiz their congressman". Gloucester Daily Times. Retrieved February 4, 2011.
  41. ^ Murphy, Matt (August 23, 2011). [Democratic Senate candidates playing nice, at least for now "Democratic Senate candidates playing nice, at least for now"]. The Salem News. Retrieved 14 September 2011. {{cite news}}: Check |url= value (help)

Campaigns

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