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Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

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The issue of climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has not been given significance in the political or public sphere. Western climate justice movements consist mainly of the youth which places importance on climate change in the public sphere. However, in the MENA region, the vulnerable youth population struggles with ensuring job security and sufficient incomes as opposed to climate justice[1]. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change [2]. According to the World Bank, the region is already considered one of the “hottest” and “driest” regions in the world and it may get worse with climate change [3]. The region has already endured several signs of the extreme weather conditions brought about by climate change[4]. These include floods, snow and prolonged droughts [5]. Yet, several of the countries in this region have not ratified the Paris Agreement [6]. Although some countries have signed and ratified the agreement, it appears that these nations have not implemented the policy changes in accordance to the agreement [7]. With that said, the Arab Youth Climate Movement (AYCM) founded in 2012 has brought awareness of climate change and the various impacts it will have to the public [8].

Different countries in the MENA region will have different impacts to endure and various methods of mitigation as a result of climate change. According to the UN, the impacts that countries will face are that of great potentially irreversible environmental shifts if action is not taken within 11 years [9]. The impacts in the MENA region include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves, and sea level rise [4]. The region already has limited water resources with water scarcity being a prominent issue especially in North Africa [10]. To be precise, 17 countries in the MENA region rank below the water poverty line established by the UN[11]. Hence, climate change can provoke the worsening of water insecurity in the region.

Increasing water insecurity as a result of climate change can instigate further food insecurity in the countries affected. This is shown by the predicted decline in crop yields by 30% in 2050 as a result of increasing droughts[12]. Decreasing water flows in local rivers have already impacted harvests in certain areas such as Iraq and Syria [13]. Nonetheless, one fifth of the region already suffers issues with food insecurity due to political instability and armed conflict[14]. Developmental issues in the region also pose threats to food security. Thus, FAO and UN programs have worked on assisting vulnerable countries in improving resilience [15]

Five of the MENA countries make the list of the top 10 carbon emitters per capita globally[16]. This is because the MENA region heavily relies on fossil fuel production for domestic use and exportation[13]. Demand for fossil fuels in the region increases with lower energy prices and will continue to do so as long as national governments persist in subsidizing energy production and consumption [17]. If greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced, part of the MENA region risks becoming uninhabitable before the year 2100 due to soaring wet-bulb temperatures.This uninhabitability will persist even if the temperature rise is limited to 2 degrees as advised the IPCC.[18][19] The region may become largely uninhabitable even if the temperature rise is limited to 2 degrees.[20]

Apart from physical and environmental impacts that climate change will have on the region, social and economic impacts will significantly affect the local populations. A lack of resilience and strong governance in several countries threatens stability and peace in the public sphere [21]. The MENA region already suffers with forced migration as a result of local conflict thus inflicting pressure on state capacity and resources to mitigate for climate change [22]. In more vulnerable countries throughout the MENA region, poorer farmers and local vendors will suffer the consequences of a significant decrease in yield [23] This will heavily impact the livelihoods of many communities who rely on this economic sector, particularly in poorer areas agriculture contributes 13% to the GDP[24].

Contribution to global warming

Iran, Iraq and Turkey are the largest contributors to global warming of the few countries that have not ratified the Paris agreement on climate change. The failure of the Iranian subsidy reform plan during the 2010s left Iran as the world's largest subsidizer of fossil fuel in 2018.[25] But, unlike other countries which successfully removed subsidies by acting gradually,[26] right at the end of the decade the government attempted to suddenly reduce gasoline subsidies, sparking riots.[27]

Impacts of climate change

The region is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts of climate change on the region include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves, and sea level rise. The Dead Sea has shrunk by a third, partly because of the increase in evaporation and decrease in rainfall. At the same time it causes floods even in the desert.[18] Many coastal cities have problems due sea level rise, especially Alexandria. The region already has limited water resources. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, part of the region may become uninhabitable before the year 2100 because of too high wet-bulb temperature. Even a rise of 1.5 degrees could create serious problems[18][19]

According to studies published by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, the number of very hot days in the region doubled between the 1970s and the time when the report was published (2016)[20]. By the year 2050, even if the temperature rise is limited to 2 degrees, the number of extremely hot days and sandstorms will increase dramatically, which could make large parts of the region uninhabitable. This could lead to waves of refugees, considering the 500 million population of the region.[20]

Many researchers say that a climate change induced drought from the year 2006 help create the Syrian civil war.[28][29]

Mitigation and adaptation

Israel and Jordan decided to build a water pipeline that will bring water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea. The target is to stop the Dead Sea shrinking further.[18]

By country

Climate change in Iran‎

Further information: Environmental issues in Iran

Climate change in Iraq‎

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Iraq.[edit]
Geography of Iraq
ContinentAsia
RegionMiddle East
Coordinates33 00 N, 44 00 E
AreaRanked 60
 • Total438,317 km2 (169,235 sq mi)
Coastline58 km (36 mi)
BordersTurkey to the north, Iran to the east, the Persian Gulf and Kuwait to the southeast, Saudi Arabia to the south, Jordan to the southwest, and Syria to the west.
Highest pointCheekha Dar
3,611 m (11,847 ft)
Lowest pointPersian Gulf
0 m (0.0 ft)
Longest riverEuphrates
Largest lakeLake Tharthar
Natural resourcesPetroleum, sulfur, phosphate, and natural gas.[30]

In Iraq, climate change has led to environmental impacts such as increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, land degradation, and water scarcity.[31] Climate change poses numerous risks to human health, livelihoods, political stability, and the sustainable development of the nation.[31] The combination of ecological factors, conflict, weak governance, and an impeded capacity to mitigate climate change, has made Iraq uniquely at risk to the negative effects of climate change, with the UN ranking them the 5th most vulnerable country to climate change.[32] Rising temperatures, intensified droughts, declining precipitation, desertification, salinization, and the increasing prevalence of dust storms are challenges Iraq faces due in to the negative impacts of climate change. National and regional political instability and conflict have made it difficult to mitigate the effects of climate change, address transnational water management, and develop sustainably.[31] Climate change has negatively impacted Iraq's population through loss of economic opportunity, food insecurity, water scarcity, and displacement.

Water-related challenges are at the forefront of Iraq's environmental problems. Models predict that precipitation will decrease by 9% and mean annual temperatures will increase by 2°C by 2050.[33] The flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which provide 98% of Iraq's surface water, has decreased by 30-40% in the past 40 years.[34] The water resources of these two rivers are also shared with neighboring countries. Iraq's water supplies have significantly decreased over time due to dam construction from upstream nations.[35]

In 2019 Iraq contributed 0.5% to global carbon emissions.[36] Iraq's energy sector and fugitive emissions account for three-fourths of the nation's emissions.[36] Specifically, Iraq's oil and gas sectors produced 9% of global methane emissions in 2019, a portion of which is from gas flares.[31] The waste, industrial, and agriculture sectors are the other sectors contributing to Iraq's greenhouse gas emissions.

Iraq produced an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), which is a set of policies and goals for how Iraq can address climate change. Iraq wants to reduce emissions by 15% by 2035, with a specific focus on lowering their methane emissions.[37] Iraq ratified the Paris Treaty in 2021 and committed to specific actions to reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, which are coordinated by a newly established inter-ministerial national task force on methane emissions.[38]

Climate Change in Israel

Further information: Environmental issues in Israel

According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection of Israel: "While Israel is a relatively small contributor to climate change due to its size and population, it is sensitive to the potential impacts of the phenomenon, due to its location. Thus, it is making an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously doing whatever possible to reduce the expected damage that will result if climate change is not halted."[39]

The impacts of climate change are already felt in Israel. The temperature rose by 1.4 degrees between 1950 and 2017. The number of hot days increased and the number of hot days decreased.[clarification needed] Precipitation rates have fallen. The trends are projected to continue. By the year 2050, in the coastal area the number of days with maximal temperature above 30 degrees, per year, is projected to increase by 20 in the scenario with climate change mitigation and by 40 in "business as usual" scenario[40].

Israel ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016. The country is part of 3 initiatives on mitigation and adaptation and 16 other actions taken by non governmental organisations[41].

According to Israel's Intended nationally determined contribution the main mitigation target is to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions to 8.8 tCO2e by 2025 and to 7.7 tCO2e by 2030. Total emissions should be 81.65 MtCO2e in 2030. In the business as usual scenario the emissions would be 105.5 MtCO2e by 2030 or 10.0 tCO2e per capita.

To reach it, the government of Israel wants to reduce the consumption of electricity by 17% relative to the business as usual scenario, produce 17% of electricity from renewables and shift 20% of transportation from cars to public transport by 2030.[42]

In an effort to comply with GHG emission reductions, Israel formed a committee with the goal of evaluating the country's potential to reduce emissions by the year 2030. Their findings have confirmed that Israel's power sector generates approximately half of the country's total GHG emissions. The second largest offender is the transport sector, which produces approximately 19% of total emissions.[43]

Climate change in Morocco

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Morocco.[edit]

Climate change is expected to significantly impact Morocco on multiple dimensions, similar to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. As a coastal country with hot and arid climates, environmental impacts from climate change are likely to be wide and varied. Analysis of these environmental changes on the economy of Morocco are expected to create challenges at all levels of the economy. The main effects will be felt in the agricultural systems and fisheries which employ half of the population, and account for 14% of GDP. In addition, because 60% of the population and most of the industrial activity are on the coast, sea level rise is a major threat to key economic forces. Morocco’s average temperatures have increased by 0.2 °C per decade since the 1960s.[44] Morocco is particularly susceptible to heat waves, droughts and floods.[44][45]

Morocco ratified the Paris Agreement in 2015. Its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aimed at reducing its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 17% by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU), with the possibility of a reduction of 32% conditional on receiving international support.[44] In June 2021, Morocco submitted an updated NDC with more ambitious targets: reduce GHGs by 18.3% by 2030 compared to BAU, with a reduction of 45.5% conditional on receiving international support.[46][47] Morocco’s contribution to global GHGs is very small (about 0.18%) and majority of GHGs come from the energy sector.[46] As of the 2023 Climate Change Performance Index, Morocco was ranked seventh in preparedness for climate change.[48]
A dried body of water in Agadir. Climate change will increase the frequency of drought in Morocco.

Climate change in Turkey

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Turkey.[edit]
dried cracked mud with sparse metre-high green plants
Lake Marmara has completely dried out; a lawsuit ongoing in 2024 alleges that there is not enough rainfall for upstream irrigation dams.[49][50][51]

Droughts and heatwaves are the main hazards due to the climate of Turkey getting hotter.[52][53] The temperature has risen by more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F),[54][50] and there is more extreme weather.[55]

Current greenhouse gas emissions are over 1% of the global total,[56] and energy policy includes subsidizing both fossil gas[57] and coal.[58] Annual per person emissions since the late-2010s have varied around six and a half tonnes,[59] which is about the global average.[60] However historical emissions are less than 1% of the global total.[61]

The Environment Ministry co-ordinates adaptation to climate change, which has been planned for water resources by river basin, and for agriculture. Climate change was recently added to school education.[62] An emission trading system is part of a draft climate law, but the draft has been criticised for omitting coal phase out.[63]

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